Springtime for Kiper on Broadway

The thermometer in Chicago has routinely been hitting seventy degrees lately, which means only one thing: it's Mel Kiper Jr. season! Saturday is going to involve me getting about 12 hours worth of His Hairness dropping knowledge on television. I've always been as interested in the business side of sports as the actual competition on the field – my dream is to be the GM of the Bears, White Sox, and Bulls concurrently. Nothing quite satisfies both parts of my sports fanaticism as the NFL Draft.

Let's compare the NFL Draft to its Major League Baseball and NBA counterparts. The MLB Draft, which really isn't a televised event, is analogous to venture capitalism. Part of the reason that there's low interest is that baseball teams take prospects that they hope to develop into big leaguers over a number of years, but they rarely come across a guy that will help the Major League team within a year, much less right away. What this also means, however, is that the aptitude of each team's management has a significant impact on success in baseball drafts – those that have superior research and scouting skills obtain a true advantage. On the other side of the spectrum is the NBA Draft, which is akin to teams acquiring booming companies that just had their IPO. Basketball players are pretty much all known quantities to everyone, so there's very little of a scouting advantage that individual teams can obtain in most cases (this will be even more true starting this year with the one-year-out-of-high-school entry requirement). The upshot, however, is that basketball players can have an immediate impact at the highest level.

What the NFL Draft does is combine what the best aspects of the MLB and NBA Drafts: the quality of the teams' front offices have a real impact on a draft's success since even the well-known skill position players need to be analyzed closely to see if they can fit into the pro game similar to the MLB, while players at every position can provide instant help to the teams that draft them like the NBA.

More importantly, the NFL Draft is, nine times out of ten, more entertaining than the Super Bowl immediately preceding it. The U.S. Navy should just set the atomic clock to the moment that the Lions use their first round pick on a wide receiver – it's becoming more of a tradition in Detroit than playing on Thanksgiving Day. There will be shots of the Cowboys' "war room" where the faces of Jerry Jones and Bill Parcells will be melting right before your very eyes. His Hairness will be talking about the unique pancaking ability of some left tackle in the middle of the seventh round with the authority of someone speaking about his own son. Giants and Jets fans will start to boo their own teams' picks before they are even announced by Paul Tagliabue. And finally, there will be live feeds of team fan parties from across the nation. In 2003, this produced one of the five funniest moments I've ever seen on television inside or outside of sports, where ESPN went to a shot of some guy in Viking horns double-fisting beers and swearing his ass off with the vigor of a Tourette's patient after Minnesota failed to get its pick to the commissioner in time and got skipped.  This was such an idiotic blunder, it practically guarantees Mike Tice a lifetime job with the New York Knicks this fall (different sports be damned – I'm convinced Tice and Isiah Thomas are soulmates).

Looking  at this year's draft. Mario Williams has been getting a ton of buzz over the past week as the possible #1 draft pick, but I can't imagine the Texans doing anything other than grabbing Reggie Bush and leaving everyone else in the dust. Bush is the rare athlete that I believe can live up to the massive hype of being a once-in-a-generation running back. I don't want to sound like John Madden, but the man is the definition of "breakaway speed."

As for the Bears, we've got the #26 pick in the first round. The Bears' needs are well-known to Chicago sports fans: outside linebacker, tight end, and a speedy wideout. For now, cornerback is off that list as long as newly signed Ricky Manning Jr. stays out of jail. I'll tell you what's disturbing about this story – what the hell is a guy doing eating at Denny's the day after signing a contract for $21 million!!! I enjoy a Denny's Grand Slam breakfast as much as anyone, but if I've got $21 million and wanted to go out to eat in Los Angeles, I'd at least get an In-N-Out Burger. There's been a decent amount of speculation of the Bears taking Miami wide receiver Sinorice Moss (brother of Santana, who I rode like Zorro to fantasy football success last year) in the first round. The only problem is that he would be spotting the Mayor of Munchkinland a couple inches in a man-to-man matchup.

Of course, the most likely scenario for the Bears is that they will trade down out of the first round. I don't know if there's a study out there regarding this issue, but I'm pretty sure that the Bears hold the all-time record for Most Times a Franchise Has Traded Down in Drafts in Any Sport. History says that when the Bears are in doubt, they trade down, regardless of who the general manager is at the time. I guess it's just as well, considering first round gems such as Curtis Enis, Cade McNown, and Rashaam Salaam (I don't know what's worse: that Packer fans can throw these names at us every year around draft-time or the graphic Fox puts up on the screen during every Bears-Packers game showing how the Bears have gone through 4,581 quarterbacks since Brett Favre began his career in Green Bay – this is starting to get to Billy Goat/Bambino/Black Sox Curse proportions).

So, enjoy the NFL Draft this weekend and let's hope that the Bears fill their needs, pick the best player on the board, get some guys with upside, and fulfill every other desirable draft cliche. His Hairness awaits.

NCAA Tournament Picks and Land-o-Links – 3/23/2006

My quick picks for tonight’s NCAA Tournament games are all chalk: Memphis over Bradley (although I’m proud of the Braves, the Tigers have too much firepower), Duke over LSU (probably will be a really close game), Texas over West Virginia (no longer will “Pittsnogle” be used as a verb in basketball), UCLA over Gonzaga (I will continue to pick Gonzaga to lose and call them overrated until the basketball gods rightfully bounce such an atrocious defensive team – they are the college version of the Dallas Mavericks).

Now, on to today’s links:

1) 2007 TV Rights Are On Big Ten’s Mind – Could Fox pay the Big Ten enough money to get the conference to abandon ESPN? I don’t care what the price is – leaving ESPN for more money would be fool’s gold for the Big Ten. The fact that no one outside of the Pacific time zone sees Pac-10 games has less to do with geography and more because none of their games are on ESPN. Plenty of hoops junkies have seen West Coast-based mid-major conferences such as the Mountain West, WCC, and Big West as a result of ESPN’s Big Monday. According to Teddy Greenstein, it looks like the Big Ten is going to do the right thing in the end and stay put.

2) Soap and the Campus: A Web-Site Spoof Succeeds – Have you ever met someone who went to Boston College? The old joke about them rings true: they think they’re Harvard in academics and Notre Dame in football. That’s a lot of bluster from a school that’s tied with our fair University of Illinois in the latest U.S. News rankings.

3) First Stadiums, Now Teams Take a Corporate Identity – If the MLS expands to Milwaukee, you know that the team must be called Milwaukee’s Best. There’s no other choice.

4) Chicago Parking Map – For those of you who can’t find a free parking space on the street and are willing to just give up and pay up, this should be a useful tool.

5) Signing New QB Should Have Been a Brees – I know that (a) Brian Griese isn’t exactly an addition to the Bears that makes my heart flutter and (b) complaining that Jay Mariotti is nuts is sort of like complaining that Chicago has corrupt politicians – it sucks but it’s never going to change. Still, what exactly were people expecting out of the Bears? It was a reasonable demand for the Bears to go out and get a solid backup quarterback, which is what they did in this situation by signing Griese. The Bears had as much of a chance of nabbing Drew Brees or Daunte Culpepper as the White Sox and Cubs had of trading for A-Rod a couple of years ago. Maybe I’m so happy to see that the Bears were proactive on the QB front for once that it’s coloring my thought process, but my gut reaction is that Mariotti needs to stop whining.

Bears Defense is Gross, Man

No Super Bears Super Bowl this season.  The rock of the Bears, the defensive unit, completely failed the team in yesterday’s 29-21 loss to the Carolina Panthers.  It was tough to watch Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith carve up the NFL’s best defense in front of a rabid crowd in Solider Field.  The Bears defensive frontline couldn’t get any pressure on Delhomme whatsoever, which allowed Steve Smith and the Carolina receiving corps get open against our secondary.

I was actually impressed with the Bears offense during the second half of the game.  Rex Grossman struggled for much of the first half, but it seemed like everything started clicking on the Bears’ last drive in the second quarter that resulted in a touchdown.  It would have been nice if the Bears were able to use the running game a little bit more, but I have no qualms about the use of the pass if we’re able to score 21 points.  When we beat Carolina back in November, we were only able to score 13 points using the Kyle Orton management system.

In a chilling twist of fate, Bears fans have the defense to blame for a loss rather than the lack of offense.  21 points should have been plenty for this defense to pull out a victory.  However, the Bears could not get a single key stop.  They were awful at cracking down on the Panthers on third down.  They were awful in terms of getting to the quarterback.  They were awful in covering Steve Smith and the other Panther receivers (I said on Friday stopping Smith wasn’t as important as halting DeShaun Foster, which goes to show you that I’m an idiot).  They were awful in stopping the Carolina running game when it mattered.  Charles “Peanut” Tillman will get a lot of flack for the times he got burned by Steve Smith yesterday, but the entire defensive unit is to blame for the Bears getting eliminated.  The way Carolina converted seemingly every crucial third down play into a first down was pathetic.

This is sad because the NFC was for the Bears’ taking this season.  I doubt they would have done anything against any of the AFC playoff teams in a hypothetical Super Bowl matchup, yet the Panthers and Seahawks were certainly beatable on the NFC side of the bracket.  So, we’ll just have to hope that the Bears continue the upward trajectory next year.  Unlike the 2001 Bears playoff team that was loaded with veterans and subsequently fell off the table in 2002, the current Bears are young and are in better position to string together several winning seasons.  There are a number of changes that we need to make (believe me, I’ll be putting up my thoughts on how the Bears should attack this offseason very soon), but I feel okay about heading into next year.  It certainly helps that all three of the Bears’ NFC North competitors will have new coaches and rebuilding next season, so we’ll at least be the favorite in the division in the short term.

Of course, division championships don’t mean that much to us Bears fans.  We want another Super Bowl victory, and the only way that’s going to happen is if we get great production from both sides of the ball.  It’s unfortunate that yesterday, the defense that we thought we could count on didn’t leave up to its end of the bargain.

Other Weekend Sports Tidbits

Not only did the Bears lose, but I also picked every NFL playoff game incorrectly this weekend.  I’m not sure why I usually put together great fantasy football teams yet this NFL season has been terrible on the prognostication front (in contrast to my mad college football picking skillz).  This is disconcerting since I probably watch more pro football than any other sport – more evidence that I’m an idiot.  The past weekend was a rare instance where I would have done better against the spread (I thought the Steelers would beat the spread but lose straight up).  Anyway, here’s the weekend in review:

1) The Bus With No Brakes – At least the Steelers-Colts game prior to the Bears tilt on Sunday was incredible.  Bill Cowher deserves a lot of credit for letting Ben Roethlisberger loose from the get go.  Everyone was anticipating Pittsburgh to use their standard pound-the-ground attack, but Big Ben came out firing passes to Heinz Ward and Antwaan Randle-El in the first quarter.  Meanwhile, the Steelers defense was able to hold the Colts all-world offense completely down for the first half, which no one has been able to do at all this year.  The rust on Peyton Manning and the rest of the Indianapolis team certainly showed in this game.  By the time the Colts charged back in the fourth quarter (with some big-time help from the officials), it was almost too late.  But then, Jerome “The Bus” Bettis, while trying to run out the clock for the Steelers, fumbled the ball back to Indy in what could have been a sports blunder on par with Bill Buckner if not for a game saving tackle by Big Ben.  The Colts got into position for a certain Mike Vanderjagt field goal to take the game to overtime, but the “idiot kicker” pushed the ball way wide right to instead give us a Scott Norwood-type moment.  A ridiculous finish to an incredible game!  As I said on Friday, I was torn on this game and thought that everyone underestimated the Steelers, but I still believed Indianapolis would pull it out in the end.  Instead, Pittsburgh became the first #6 seed to beat a #1 seed in the NFL playoffs and Peyton Manning is going to continue to get whispers behind his back on how he can’t win the big one.

2) Plummer Pummels Patriots – Well, I was right about not believing the Colts would make the Super Bowl, but I’ll eat crow for saying about 15 times over the past month that the Patriots would be the AFC champions.  I honestly can’t believe how many mistakes the Patriots made (few NFL teams can overcome 5 turnovers).  It’s doubly unfathomable to me that Jake Plummer, looking like a cross between Jesus and the Unabomber with that haircut and beard, didn’t melt down with the exception of one interception.  The sheer field position that was handed over to the Broncos by the Patriots – New England had nearly 140 more total yards than Denver but lost by two touchdowns – cemented the deal here.  I really feel this game was a fluke on par with a low-seeded mid-major upsetting a power program in the NCAA Tournament; if this game were played ten times, I’m positive the Patriots would win nine of those times.  Alas, this was the one instance where Denver got the benefit of all the bounces.  This makes me believe the Broncos are getting killed next week against the Steelers despite the home-field advantage.

3) Hasselback Mountain – The Shaun Alexander concussion for a few moments seemed like the cursed Seahawks’ answer to the Bengals’ Carson Palmer injury (kind of like how Grady Little left in Pedro Martinez about 500 pitches too long so that the Red Sox could keep pace with the Cubs and Steve Bartman in 2003).  However, Matt Hasselback was incredible in overcoming the loss of the NFL Offensive Player of the Year and deftly led Seattle to a solid victory over a pretty good Redskins defense.  As I said on Friday, my head was saying the Seahawks would win while my gut was going with the Redskins – I trusted my gut, which makes me an idiot today.  At this point, I’ve got to rank Hasselback as the best quarterback left in the playoffs (Big Ben Roethlisberger and Jake Delhomme have got skills, but Hasselback is the most polished).  The early feeling here is that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl, though I might change my mind by the end of the week.

4) Illini Muck Up FichiganThe Illini pulled out a close victory over Michigan on Saturday with our seniors Dee Brown and James Augustine carrying the load (by the way, what’s up with the Big Ten scheduling the Illinois-Michigan game, last week’s Michigan State-Wisconsin matchup and yesterday’s double-overtime Michigan State-Ohio State battle in the same time slots as the NFL Playoffs?  Not very cool for this NFL/Big Ten nut).  The second half play for Illinois, however, was suspect and we were fortunate to overcome our foul troubles.  The early conference schedule doesn’t let up for the Illini – next up is a Super Tuesday game at Indiana.  Brian Randle and Shaun Pruitt can’t be playing with 4 fouls in the second half or else Marco Killingsworth is going to run all over us.  Still, I’m comfortable with our chances as long as Mike Davis is patrolling the Hoosier sidelines.

Anyway, I’m now going to crawl into a hole for the next couple of days and emerge with a Jake Plummer beard to wallow in my Bears misery.  At least the Packers still suck.

Dr. Z, You Damned Dirty Ape!

The last piece of the 2005-06 Frank the Tank Trifecta is almost in place – the Illini Final Four, the White Sox World Series, and now, just two victories to a Super Bears Super Bowl.  So, enough with Dr. Z’s preseason predictions (Bears ranked #32 out of 32?  Oops!).  I’ve been waiting for this weekend for four years!  Here are my NFL divisional playoff picks in order of confidence but not against the spread (home teams in CAPS):

1) New England Patriots over DENVER BRONCOS – I’ll repeat what I said on Monday: if you had to bet your life savings on either a team led by Tom Brady or a club commanded by Jake “The Snake” Plummer, who would you pick?  This is pretty easy.

2) CHICAGO BEARS over Carolina Panthers – How could this Super Fan put Da Bears at #2 in the confidence rankings?  We still have a QB that has played in 1 ½ games this season and has never been in the playoffs – that’s not cool considering how Carolina battered Eli Manning last week.  However, the Chicago Bears defense is rested, healthy, and ready to attack.  The Bears don’t need to stop Steve Smith (who had 169 receiving yards on November 20th against us) as much as they need to halt DeShaun Foster and the Panthers’ running game.  This is going to be a close game, but I believe the Bears will dominate on defense and create just enough offense (and, most importantly, avoid turnovers) to advance to the NFC Championship Game.

3) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Pittsburgh Steelers – The Colts are going to pull this one out only because they can take advantage of the carpet at the RCA/Hoosier/firemikedavis.com Dome.  The current 9 ½-point spread in favor of Indy is way too large; they’ll win but the Steelers will cover.  As I alluded to on Monday, I believe that the Pittsburgh power running game is going to give the speed-oriented Colts defense fits for most of the game.  However, in a flip-flop of the Bears’ situation, the Colts will probably make just enough stops on the defensive side of the ball to allow their offense to win this game in the end.

4) Washington Redskins over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – This one really defies any logic.  On the Seattle side, Shaun Alexander is the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Matt Hasselback is an accomplished quarterback with playoff experience, and Mike Holmgren is one of only a handful of coaches that has a postseason pedigree that can compete with Joe Gibbs.  The Redskins also were fortunate come out with a win last week after an abysmal game on offense.  Not surprisingly, the Seahawks are huge 9-point favorites.  However, I just have a gut feeling on this one.  I feel like Clinton Portis is going to be able to run well against the Seahawks defense, and when the Redskins are able to run the ball, they can beat anyone.  Plus, even though I’d like to see the Bears punish Mike Holmgren for all of the pain he inflicted on us as the Packers coach in 1990s, the first two times I was ever scarred as a sports fan in my life were when I witnessed, as a young child, the Redskins come into Solider Field and stun the Bears in consecutive playoff games in 1986 and 1987 (the latter of which was Walter Payton’s last game).  It’s time for the Bears to avenge the first sports scars of Frank the Tank, so it’s going to be Chicago vs. Washington for the NFC Championship next week.

Have a great weekend, Go Illini, Muck Fichigan, and GO BEARS!