As I was going through the always insightful comments (since people seem to love talking about superconferences) and pondering life’s great questions, such as what Desmond’s plan is on LOST or why Justin Bieber has been a trending topic on Twitter for the past 15 years, it occurred to me that a multi-phase expansion for the Big Ten may actually be a strong strategy for the conference. For a very long time, I thought that if the Big Ten was going to add multiple schools, it would do it all at once because it wouldn’t want to risk not ending up with its desired end combination by inviting 1 or 2 schools and then hoping that someone like Notre Dame would join down the road. However, what if the Big Ten could invite 2 specific schools who would accept that would (a) apply maximum pressure on the big names to join in “Phase 2” and (b) even those big names don’t end up joining, those 2 schools plus another school that the conference apparently likes would still provide enough value where expansion would be considered to be a success?
A large part of the leverage that the Big Ten has right now is due to the fact that it stands at an odd number of 11 members, which provides the possibility of the conference adding 1, 3 or 5 schools (or even standing pat). Basically, it’s the conference equivalent of the “triple threat” position in basketball, where the player with the ball has the ability to dribble, pass or shoot. No one knows which direction the Big Ten is going to go right now. The mere threat of Big Ten expansion has caused the Big East and Big XII to wonder if they’ll survive and at least making the ACC consider some contingency plans. If the Big Ten just adds one member in an attempt to have a multi-phase expansion, then a lot of that threat goes away – the perception will be that the Big Ten is at a stable 12 members with a conference championship game and provides a strong possibility that it wouldn’t look any further. However, if the Big Ten invites 2 strategically targeted schools that would almost certainly accept, then the conference creates even more fear and chaos in the college sports world. Standing at 13, it’s clear that the Big Ten is pursuing a superconference strategy and there is an absolute guarantee that it needs to add 1 or 3 more members. If there’s a frenzy about the Big Ten’s plans today, just imagine what it would be like if the conference expands with a guarantee that it will add at least one more. The Big Ten would also show schools like Notre Dame and Texas that the conference isn’t bluffing when it says that it’s moving on.
Let’s look back at the Big Ten Expansion Index, which is likely how most of you found this blog in the first place. After Texas and Notre Dame, I had ranked Syracuse and Nebraska as the next two best candidates for the Big Ten. For separate reasons, Syracuse and Nebraska also happen to serve as the ideal “Phase 1” invitees to the conference.
Reading the tea leaves from Notre Dame, a split of the Big East current hybrid structure is the most likely way to “force” it to join a conference (regardless of what the school’s alums believe). Well, if the Big Ten were to choose just one Big East school that would most likely cause the Big East to split, it would be Syracuse. The Orange are the glue that holds the hybrid together because no other Big East football school has as much invested in rivalries with the conference’s Catholic schools for basketball. Without Syracuse, the other football schools would almost have to split simply for self-preservation. Those remaining Big East football schools wouldn’t know whether the Big Ten would really want any of them in Phase 2 of the expansion and with only 7 members, they absolutely have to add another member immediately just to have the minimum number for a conference to exist in the first place. Practically speaking, they would likely want to split from the Catholic schools to have the leeway to add 2 new members to cover the situation where the Big Ten may end up taking another Big East school in Phase 2.
On the other side of the Big Ten footprint, we should note something very important with respect to the Big XII: it takes 4 schools to stop any changes to the current inequitable revenue sharing structure that favors Texas more than any other school. Missouri’s chancellor has complained about this openly. Right now, there’s a solid bloc of 4 schools preventing those changes: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma… and Nebraska. Those 4 schools consistently receive the most national TV appearances of the current Big XII members, so they receive the largest share of conference revenue on a year-in and year-out basis. (Note that as much as a lot of otherwise incredibly civil Husker fans complain about how much Texas supposedly controls the Big XII, Nebraska is one of the reasons why Texas has such a large financial advantage over the rest of the conference because the Cornhuskers are still a net beneficiary from that revenue distribution model.) If the Big Ten takes Nebraska away, then the other Big XII schools will have a super-majority to enact the revenue sharing changes that they’ve long wanted and block the prospect of allowing member schools to create their own TV channels (such as the Longhorn Sports Network). Who is going to be really pissed off in that situation because it now no longer has the supposed financial “control” of the Big XII? Texas, who is already behind all of the schools in the Big Ten and SEC in TV money even with the Big XII’s deck completely stacked in the Longhorns’ favor. If Missouri could be considered a “stalking horse” to try to get Texas, actually taking Nebraska can directly hit the pocketbook of Texas like no other Big XII school except for Oklahoma (who won’t ever get a sniff of a Big Ten invite due to academic concerns). Texas A&M would be in a similar position. Nebraska leaving the Big XII gives those two Texas schools a clear financial reason for them to move conferences (to the extent that it’s not there already) AND the political “moral authority” (as Barking Carnival has noted before) of telling the state’s politicians that they need to move pronto regardless of what happens to Texas Tech and Baylor because the Big XII is a dead man walking.
In summary, the Big Ten can announce that it’s inviting Syracuse and Nebraska, both of whom I believe the conference likes regardless of who else might be added. The effect of this is even more panic in the college sports world since 2 BCS conferences will have lost key members and it’s clear that the Big Ten is going to want to add at least 1 more school (or maybe 3). This causes the Big East to split up simply for self-preservation (which would drive Notre Dame to the Big Ten) and the Big XII’s power schools would no longer have veto power to avoid changes to its revenue distribution model (which would drive Texas and Texas A&M to the Big Ten). We would then have a Super Death Star Conference (the one that the Empire attempted to build in Return of the Jedi): Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, Syracuse and Nebraska as new members of a 16-school Big Ten.
Now, what if the desired fallout doesn’t go as planned for the Big Ten, where Notre Dame and/or the Texas schools stay put? (In the words of future Ole Miss mascot Admiral Ackbar, “It’s a trap!!!”) This is not really a problem because the Big Ten has already added a huge national football name (Nebraska) and a marquee basketball school that happens to be the only BCS school in the state of New York (Syracuse). The Big Ten would then invite Rutgers as school #14, which gets the conference to stake its geographic claim to the New York/New Jersey area. As a result, the Big Ten has increased its national cache for both football and basketball while adding on concrete households in the form of a major presence in the nation’s largest TV market. (This is “JoePa’s Quasi-Dream Conference” that I wrote about here.) Adding Syracuse and Nebraska as schools #12 and #13 allows the Big Ten to disrupt the current comfort zones of Notre Dame and Texas and applies serious pressure on them to join the Big Ten themselves, but also provides a hedge in the event that those major players aren’t persuaded at the end.
I’ve stated before that Nebraska would be the one school that could make me eat my words that the Big Ten wouldn’t expand without Notre Dame or Texas involved. Frankly, JoePa’s Quasi-Dream Conference is a pretty good outcome for everyone associated with the Big Ten. The sports fans get great national programs in football and basketball (plus major upgrades in other sports with Nebraska baseball and women’s volleyball and Syracuse lacrosse). The academically-minded people maintain a conference entirely composed of members of the American Association of Universities. The traditionalists get a geographically contiguous conference that “conservatively” adds on to both sides of the league footprint. The TV executives get another marquee football name for national TV contracts and entry into the New York/New Jersey area for Big Ten Network households. Maybe most importantly, these are all schools that seem to actually WANT to be in the Big Ten (as opposed to feeling forced to join). This can maintain the close-knit atmosphere that I believe is the Big Ten’s greatest qualitative strength.
That would be my maniacal multi-phase expansion plan if the Big Ten is truly looking to move up to at least 14 schools – go for the proverbial royal flush in a way where the conference is still guaranteed to be the chip leader no matter what happens.
(NOTE: In response to several requests, I’m putting together an updated post on the potential fallout on other conferences, so stay tuned.)
(Follow Frank the Tank’s Slant on Twitter @frankthetank111)
(Image from Eco Auto Ninja)
Pingback: The Big Ten Expansion Index: A Different Shade of Orange « FRANK THE TANK’S SLANT
Well, guess what happened to the deathstar? Luke blew it up. And look what happend to the ACC’s great expansion plans. Biggest is not bestest.
Very insightful Frank on your views of the Big Ten picking just two schools, but highly strategic schools for future expansion. I’m not sure Syracuse and Nebraska are the two, though.
Nebraska has terrible basketball, but it is an AAU school and we all know about the football history there. Syracuse is not a research school and has terrible football. Someone else besides Syracuse would be better….of course, Notre Dame, which needs no discussion.
So, what happens to the Big 12? Don’t count on Colorado going to PAC 10 because of significant painful exit penalties in a tight economic climate, but it could happen if Utah goes too and the PAC 10 makes it financially attractive.
So, will the Big 12 add 2 schools? Nothing around is really attractive. Could stay at 10 schools, but would lose even more TV revenue by losing the Denver market, so would prolly need to add BYU and another Texas school, maybe Houston – or if not a Texas school then New Mexico.
Texas would have even greater leverage in getting what it wants, and would stay in the Big 12 to beat up on everyone else and take their milk money.
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Doug,
The ACC imploded because the ACC doesn’t know what to do with the content it has. When it was formed, everyone believed (myeself included) that with Miami and Va Tech, the football level of the ACC would be forced up. And to a certain extent, I believe it has improved. But without a great way to promote and market the product, well, it’s kind of like buying a sports car and never getting it tuned or washing it… Sooner or later it’s going to crap out on you.
My point: Bigger can be better, you just have to know what to do with it.
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ND is neither a research school, nor an AAU member. How are they even in this discussion?
One of the original tenants of Franks expansion thesis was to think like a university president, NOT like an AD…. ND doesn’t belong.
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Because it didn’t matter in ’99 or ’03.
No Catholic school is in the AAU anymore. The research isn’t bad, but it isn’t Big Ten level, either.
I concur, we don’t belong. I wish the media would figure that out.
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@Jim – ND isn’t a research school, but the university presidents aren’t so myopic to forget that the #1 revenue driver in all of this is still football. The Big Ten’s university presidents were perfectly happy to invite ND formally in 1999 and the Irish were on the brink of joining in the wake of the ACC raid in 2003, so the lack of graduate research at ND obviously wasn’t an issue.
That being said, would I ultimately be OK if Nebraska was invited instead of ND? Absolutely. I’m really starting to like the Huskers more and more in these discussions – an elite football name (which I do think is non-negotiable – the Big Ten shouldn’t be expanding without at least one) that’s a large research university without the baggage of ND’s stance regarding independence.
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It’s not the research solely, it’s the overall academic standards (an easy way to judge this is by going off of the AAU, but that is by no means the be-all-end-all). Notre Dame fits both academically and athletically (and geographically) with the current Big 10 schools. If they choose to accept an offer, they’ll fit in perfectly with everyone else.
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I would love Nebraska, but other then Frank stating the Big 10 has interest, I haven’t seen any reports suggesting Nebraska is at the top of the Big 10 wishlist.
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There haven’t really been reports on any school from the Big Ten. Just lots of speculation and a few unnamed sources.
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Assuming that the PAC-10 take Colorado, do you think that there is value to take two Big-12 North teams, say Nebraska and Missouri (or Kansas) to leave the Big-12 with just 9 teams and a very weak North Division of Iowa St., Kansas St., and probably Kansas (maybe Missouri)?
The more I think about this, the more I like it because it gives leverage for three options:
A) Texas/Texas A&M/ + 1: This take politics off the table (maybe even to encourage Texas to abandon ship before it goes under).
B) Notre Dame: Expansion with Nebraska, Missouri, and Notre Dame maintains the Mid-West feel and tradition. Although folks like to think that Notre Dame won’t go if forced, the reality is that Notre Dame is wise enough to know that a wrong move may end up in checkmate. For example, no ND then means that Big-10/Big 12 take a combo of 4 to 5 Big East teams leaving ND without anywhere to go.
C) If A & B, fall through then the Big 10 could select any one Big East school (Syracuse) or any three Big East schools (Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn) or 2 Big East and one ACC (Syracuse, UConn, BC) to round out the NY/NE region.
The minute that Colorado leaves, BYU will be offered and will shortly accept. This has me thinking that the Big-12 won’t fall with one or two teams going, but needs a minimum of three. If the Big-12 isn’t in danger of capsizing then Texas and A&M are likely no-movers. Then options 2 and 3 are the only available ones in which case the Big East could survive since at most three teams would leave the Big East, which would have the most ease to replace teams by taking from the MAC or UCF, Marshall, East Carolina, etc. Although they would lose the BCS AQ bid, Notre Dame could care less and would still have a home for their other sports.
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@Nittany Wit – IF the Big Ten truly thinks that Texas and Texas A&M will be spurred to move to the Big Ten, then this makes sense. However, I get the feeling that the Big Ten has a desire to add at least one Eastern school with ties to the NYC area and that they’d rather end up with 14 schools as opposed to 16 (at least right now), so I doubt that they’ll open up with adding 2 Big XII North schools. 1 would be enough (and IMHO, Nebraska >>>> Missouri).
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If the Big10 goes after the Big East first, they will at most take three teams. In order of likelihood, this is probably Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn, and Pitt. I can easily see the Big East picking up Memphis, ECU, UCF, Temple, Buffalo, Marshall, or allowing Villanova to step up to Division 1 as UConn did in the 90’s. The Big East has a lot more viable replacement options than the Big12.
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Not really. ECU, Temple, Buffalo, etc. don’t match the appeal of Syrause, Rutgers, or UConn on football or basketball.
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M (AG)
Wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall in Bill Byrnes office and listen to the conversations? In my imagination, it could go something like this.
“OK, staff, I have called you in because I need your latest research and your latest numbers projections. Spring training will be over Saturday. The Board of Regents meets in May and I have been told that they need the numbers and our input on all the different scenarios, which will almost surely be upon this University when the Big Ten Presidents meet in June. The Board wants to be ready.
A. As I have told you, Delaney has talked to DeLoss and to me about Big Ten membership. Informally, of course. He is not empowered to issue a formal invitation. Only the Presidents can do that. With that said, by the time a formal invitation is issued and accepted, all the deals will have already been done. I have spoken with President Loftin and he is pretty much on board, with the change, especially with the way that Nebraska and Missouri have gone public with their declarations. No need to tell you that if this conversation leaks to any member of the press, you are all looking for a job tomorrow. Acceptance by Texas A&M is an easy decision. We share a commonality with the Big Ten of large endowments and a thirst for education and research grants. We think that our University will be a top 50 ranked school within the next decade because we are spending the money to get there and to hire the staff to succeed. We are an AAU member and, certainly, we believe we could be a contributing member of the CIC. Whatever it takes to acheive our educational improvement and recognition goals. But as usual, it is our friends in Austin who are putting the brakes on the membership status.
B. DeLoss tells me that Powers love the Big Ten but that some of the UT regents want to explore their options. Their regents have always felt that their educational goals have always fell more in line with the California schools. Stanford did not agree in the early nineties. That bone may still has some meet on it so who knows. But Texas is persistent, so that they are now quietly talking with the other California schools; especially USC and Berkley to determine their feelings about starting a new conference with select membership and or creating a Western Alliance with east/west divisions in conjunction with a startup conference cable TV network. They are suggesting the Arizona schools plus six existing Big Twelve schools for the eastern division. Sure they have asked us but we have not committed. As I understand their scenario, they want to include Tech, Colorado, Oklahoma and Kansas and us. Guess they want their cake and be able to eat it too. Just me I know, but if you have Wazzoo and the Beavers, guess OU and Tech would be ok. They fill the stadiums and play well on TV, but why not Nebraska, well you know why.
C. They have been talking to Fox Sports, ESPN and Comcast for sure about a Western Alliance Network similar to the Big Ten Network. Seems like the projections change every time I hear them. As you know, we are a conservative school and we would prefer a bird in our hand rather than two or three in the bush. But, it is probably no accident that Texas graduates a huge number of future entrepreneurs. They are projecting revenues based on the schools state population and the present ratings of the schools sports broadcasts. Kansas makes the cut because of their basketball and since Kansas is afraid of being left behind, they are quite interested. We may be too, but we need to see some contracts or at least some solid evidence.
D. Texas likes the Big Ten available money very much but, because of the past history of the Nebraska non-qualifiers, they seem to have a sore spot about the Cornhuskers. I was there and those are some nice people dedicated to their school and I think they would be a credit to the Big Ten. But Texas would prefer a membership offer from the Big Ten to Colorado, not Nebraska. They say the ratings and the money would be better and they may be right. This could be a double political sword. You know that our friends have a history of personal gratification and political intrigue. If Colorado is talking to the Big Ten, then they are not talking to the PAC Ten, which just might leave them at the whims of the Texas decision makers. And Nebraska would be left behind. Plus it could take some stroke away from the Big Ten in forcing a decision on the whole Big Twelve. I think maybe in their secret heart, Texas wants to keep the Big Twelve in tact. They are not the moneyest making school in the country by accident. Then Texas could have more time to explore a Big Twelve Network. But, with decision time in June, time is of the essence. And I think Texas is a little hesitant about Big Ten membership because Texas is a little leery of the Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State power brokers. Sure, I believe that we would fit right in.
E. Yes, if Texas goes west, we would accept membership all by ourselves to the Big Ten. But, we may not be asked. If we could go back to the future, back to the 80’s and 90’s when we were riding high and commanding the lions share of the TV broadcasts, there would probably be no question that the offer would be extended. Our old dominance is why, that when the Big Twelve was formed the North Division schools refused to play Texas A&M and Oklahoma in the same season. So, always be careful what you wish for. Now they get to play Texas and OU in the same season. TV ratings are of paramount importance right now and Texas is the 800-pound gorilla. They have the power and they will use it to slow play every thing. Although, I believe they will accept Big Ten memebership after a whole lot more conversation. And we will too. If we put together back to back nine win seasons, as we used to enjoy every year, then we will have the big TV ratings also.
F. But, to be safe, and because of our conservative nature, and because some of our Regents and most trustworthy supporters have questions how we might fit in with the Colorado’s, Berkeley’s and the overall Hollywood image of the PAC Ten, I have talked to the SEC. The southern gentlemen at Georgia and Florida would sponsor us and LSU and Arkansas would support us. Conversations of “just in case” are going on with CBS and ESPN to get some sweetening for the contracts because of the potential addition of the Texas TV market. To offset A&M in the West, CBS is asking questions about Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and FSU for the East. Virginia Tech has a lot alumni living in DC. Pittsburgh would open additional Pennsylvania TV sets for the SEC. FSU is a geographical fit but Florida opposes their membership. They have their reasons. If the Big Ten expands to sixteen schools but, does not include Texas nor Texas A&M, well that could really open up a great amount of movement. Sixteen schools in the Big Ten would most likely include a great number of Big East schools, probably destroy the Big East, but it may leave the Big Twelve untouched. Then, we would have business as usual and lots of time to explore our own network. By the way, DeLoss has flat out asked me what it would take for us not to go to the SEC, if Texas goes west. I think that Mack told him that it could upset the balance of recruiting. When is the last time we did what Texas asked us to?
G. I have a meeting with President Loftin the first week in May. He is going to ask me some hard questions. This your agenda and I need solid, supported answers by the 25th.
1. Talk to any of your friends or sources in DeLoss’s office that will give you an inkling about how they are leaning.
2. Talk to some of the whiz kid accountants and give me some solid projected income numbers for staying in the Big Twelve, going to the Big Ten, joining the PAC Ten, being a charter member of the Western Alliance or joining Florida and Georgia and Vandy, etc. in the SEC.
3. Talk to as many alumni as you can, especially the large donors and determine without asking, if they will continue to support our endowment with their gifts and in their wills. This is very important.
4. Talk to Kay Bailey and John and see if they feel our research grants will increase or decrease if we are identified with the Big Ten or the PAC Ten or the SEC without any other Texas schools except maybe the University of Texas.
5. Talk to Rick and his staff and see if he will support us no matter what or if there may be some flak from our left behind state brethren. And get some ideal on how to put out the fire. Fires. Whatever, you know what I mean.
6. Go, you have work to do. Give me lots of supporting paper and facts and a very short summary on every scenario.”
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I think you’ve summed up the scenario about as succinctly as possible!
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Hoy-Hoy,
I have been reading the various posts and comments here for quit a while now, and they have been very entertaining and insightful. In regard to Frank’s Latest post about multi-phase expiation and Syracuse being one of the main targets I final decide to post something.
Now let me first say I am not advocating or suggestion anything as concrete but merrily presenting food for thought.
In regard to Syracuse and the Big Ten the whole notion of inclusion seems to be based on the predication that they can delivery not necessary the NYC market but at least the upstate New York Markets; and because of this the Big Ten would then be willing to overlook the lack of research activity at the school, it’s sub par football and small enrollment.
Now under that premise why then would The Big Ten Not invite Buffalo instead of Syracuse? At first blush this seems like a non starter, but bare with me and follow me down the rabbit hole.
First let’s assume for ease of conversation that neither of these schools will get you much in the way of the New York Metro area, and they are being brought in just to turn Upstate New York into Big Ten Country. According to tvb.org there are roughly 2.7 million TV households in the various markets in upstate New York. The largest being Buffalo with 633,000, Syracuse is 4th largest with around 385,000. Now can one school delivery all the other markets [Albany, Rochester, Plattsburgh, etc] better than the other? Is Syracuse’s stellar basketball enough to compensate for their lack luster football in the rest of the state? I do not know. But Buffalo football is no more or less good or bad than is Syracuse football. Buffalo has a small stadium to be sure, but Syracuse is playing in an aging dome, either school would conceivable need to upgrade their facilities.
If the worst paned out for the Big Ten, and the Upstate team taken could only reliably delivery their home market only, would you not want the bigger market in Buffalo? And if we assume The Big Ten continues with it’s state wide pricing straggly for the BTN wouldn’t either school get them about the same amount of leverage when negotiating with the various cable companies?
Also consider research levels; Buffalo is a AAU members rated by the Carnage Foundation as being a “primarily residential” University with “very high research activity” the same rating as nearly every Big Ten School. According to Wikipedia it is the largest public university in the state of New York. And according to the Nation Science Foundation is ahead of Iowa & Rutgers in the amount of R&D expenditures [and just behind Nebraska].
In 2008 Buffalo had just under 340 million in research spending, Rutgers had 323 million and Iowa was at the bottom of the Big Ten with 293 million, Wisconsin topped the Big Ten and all Division I Schools with 880 Million. Syracuse had 38 million in R&D spending in 2008.
Also Buffalo is currently in the middle of instating their UB2020 plan which calls for the expansion of the school by 40% by 2020 and the increase of enrollment by 10,000 which would bring the total enrollment close to 38,000 which would tie it for second largest in the big ten with Minnesota and Penn State, only Ohio State would have a larger enrollment. Syracuse’s enrollment is just under 13,800
Buffalo has a endowment of around 500 million, Syracuse’s endowment is just under 700 million, both would be the lowest in the Big Ten. Currently Iowa’s 1 billion dollar endowment is the lowest of all Big Ten schools. Buffalo was founded in 1846, Syracuse was founded in 1870. Both schools are located on frozen tundra’s, but Buffalo’s frozen tundra is geographically closer to the current big ten foot print than Syracuse’s frozen tundra 😉
And finally this maybe here nor there but the prevailing winds of change seem to suggest that at some point there is a very real chance the Buffalo Bills will relocate to someplace other than Buffalo New York. If that does happen all of sudden the Buffalo “Bulls” are no longer in a pro-team kill zone, they are now the only game in town for football fans in Buffalo. Does this mean Buffalo could become the New York State Version of Ann Arbor, Columbus, or State Collage? Who Knows?
The only real advantage Syracuse seems to have over Buffalo is that the field one of the best basketball programs in the country. Is that enough?
I am not saying Buffalo is being considered or even that they should or shouldn’t, but from the available information; if a person thinks Syracuse is an acceptable expansion candidate, one could agree Buffalo is a better choice. Likewise if a person believes that Buffalo is a absolute non-starter, then one could argue Syracuse is too.
Wow, that was a long one, if anybody made it to the end, thanks for reading! Again love the articles and all the comments keep them coming.
Cheers-
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I have to admit, I know absolutely nothing about Buffalo. I mean nothing. I didn’t know they were the Bulls. I didn’t know they had a medical school or law school until I looked it up.
I see it’s a decent sized university. It’s ranked 91-112 by the ARWU, which I’d imagine would be deemed borderline by the Big Ten. It’s just below Nebraska and above Rutgers in research.
Buffalo might have as strong a pull in upstate NY as Syracuse, but I think one of the appeals of Syracuse is at least the hope that they appeal to NYC. I don’t think they’d be considered for an appeal to just upstate New York
Whether Syracuse actually appeal to NYC, I’m not at all convinced. However, Syracuse does have a basketball team which might appeal there. Buffalo, not so much.
If Buffalo were to be invited to join the Big Ten’s conference for sports, I think they’d need to have a much more prominent sports profile.
Nonetheless, an interesting suggestion…
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Scott, as someone who has lived in Upstate New York my whole life I can shed some light on the attractiveness of Buffalo vs. Syracuse.
As of now Buffalo has very few fans that root for the bulls. Everyone in the city is much more preoccupied with the various professional teams.
That said Syracuse absolutely has a larger Upstate NY fanbase, but if for some reason Buffalo joined the Big 10 that could change. (although I see a Big 10 invite very unlikely, Syracuse would get asked first)
As for Syracuse’s NYC following? Syracuse basketball is already loved by NYC, and Madison Square Garden is really a second home court for us. (honestly we seem to play better at MSG than in the Carrier Dome)
Whenever Syracuse is playing at MSG for the Big East Tournament the building is predominately filled with Orange.
Syracuse football however doesn’t have near the NYC following of the basketball team currently has partly because the program has fallen on hard times, and the fact that NYC loves college basketball over college football.
Syracuse, athletically speaking has more of a sports following similar to that of a state flagship school than Buffalo ever will. I honestly think if Syracuse were to join a nationally watched “Big 16” mega-conference its private status could aid rather than hinder the growing of the Orange fanbase. In the Northeast few states have big state flagship schools, and privates dot the landscape and are often considered much more prestigious.
With some success Syracuse could be seen as the Northeast’s/New England’s school rather than just a “NY State” school. Syracuse alums generally flock to all the major cities of the Northeast (NYC, Boston, Philly, etc.) so the possibility is not too far fetched.
That said it will take considerable academic success in football combined with continued domination in basketball to develop such a large widespread fanbase across the North East.
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Tim W,
I was hoping someone from the upstate area could shed some light on the overall appeal of Syracuse in the area, everything you said makes sense.
I was not really advocating for Buffalo but it just surprised me to the amount of resources that school had, I mean their in the MAC for crying out loud who knew? 😉
As for Syracuse I will agree that the fact that they are private is not a disqualifying factor, I mean Northwestern Has made it work, but the low research output of the school is what I can’t get past.
Does anyone know if New York State has a system similar to the “Commonwealth System” in Pennsylvania? Where by private and/or independent schools are privately run but can still be supplied with State Funds. Could Syracuse upgrade their research level threw such a system?
Another question Does Syracuse even feel the need to upgrade research?
Maybe I am making too much of the importance of the research levels, but from reading some of the other post I do not think so…
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A couple of things…Syracuse has a rich football history. ESPN ranks them as the 29th most prestigious football program while Buffalo checks in at 103…..http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3842161
The players they have produced include Jim Brown, Larry Csonka, Art Monk, Dwight Freeney, John Mackey, Donovan McNabb, and Ernie Davis (Heisman winner). Others include Marvin Harrison, Keith Bullock, and Tebucky Jones. Buffalo wouldn’t even come close to Syracuse in football not to mention basketball. To most people, maybe even those in NY, if they overhead someone say Buffalo Bulls, they would probably correct the person and say it is the Buffalo BILLS.
Syracuse wasn’t really run into the ground until Greg Robinson took over (2000’s). However, since Syracuse basketball is bigger than football it makes it easy to forget there rich tradition in football.
Syracuse basketball only delivers NY better than all of Buffalo’s sports combined…
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One thing I’d like to point out about Syracuse basketball in the NYC area. SU fans took over the Rutgers basketball games at Rutgers so badly that Rutgers had to implement a rule where you can’t buy tickets to the SU vs. RU game without buying the season package. The only game of the year this rule (afaik) applies to.
Granted, RU basketball sucks. Penn State’s basketball sucks, too. But I doubt their venue gets taken over by opposing teams (or do they?). First and foremost, I’m a fan of my alma mater. I would be attending basketball and football games evenly regardless of how well each are playing.
Yes, I’m just gloating. 😀
I think NYC is very much like its moniker. It’s a melting pot. I don’t think it will every be any one school’s city. But that doesn’t mean football can’t be popular here. And I don’t think it’s that we don’t watch college football. I think we do. Just need more big names coming to play around here.
It *does* mean that you need the surrounding schools, though. And if there are a ton of Big Ten alums in NYC (as has been implied here), I think the BTN will do quite well.
I’m surprised Duke is so high (I’d guess UNC). I know I’ve personally seen BC, ND, UK, and SU bars.
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If Texas (with or without A&M) wants to join the Big 10, Nebraska leaving would certainly give it the cover to leave. However, after all this speculation, I’m still not entirely confident they wouldn’t go to the Pac 10 (Nebraska leaving gives them cover to go West, too) or try to make it work in the Big 12 with BYU taking Nebraska’s place.
I think if this would work, they’ve likely told the Big 10 behind the scenes. I guess we’ll see this summer?
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@m (Ag) – It would not surprise me at all if it spurs the Texas schools to look to the Pac-10, as well. I’m still a little perplexed by how much a lot of Texas fans seem to really prefer the Pac-10 or have some type of Western alliance over the Big Ten, though. I understand it from a pure traveling fan perspective and the lure of Southern California football recruiting. However, when you step back from it all, there’s a reason why the Pac-10’s revenues are weak compared to even the Big XII – the West Coast is just as bad following college sports as the Northeast. From a national TV perspective, USC is the only team that really draws interest in the Eastern and Central Time Zones – otherwise, the other schools are truly mysteries to the rest of the nation. That’s the danger in playing in the Pacific Time Zone – there’s a reason why the Cowboys wanted absolutely nothing to do with going to the NFC West when the NFL realigned its divisions (and that was even when they were in the middle of their great games with 49ers in the 1990s). Oh well – if that’s where the hearts of Texas and maybe Texas A&M seem to be, then it is what it is.
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Every time I think all permutations have been covered, you come up with a new one. Great reasoning!
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As a Cowboys fan as well, I can state confidently that the reason the Cowboys fought to remain in the NFC East had nothing to do with a fear of the Pacific Time Zone (that’s just two, maybe three games a year) and everything to do with preserving lucrative traditional rivalries with the Skins, Eagles and Giants. The Cowboys would have fought against a move to the NFC South for the very same reason, regardless of the more advantageous time zone.
And recall that realignment came several years after the great NFC Championship Games of the early 1990s. Any energy which had gone into building a rivalry with the Niners had dissipated by the time of realignment was announced around 2000 or so.
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Hopkins Horn is exactly right. Nothing to do with timezones (besides – all the NFL start times are standardized anyway) and everything to do with rivalry.
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I don’t think there is any team the Big XII could add that would vote to keep the unequal revenue sharing.
It is weird that Texas would opt for less money in joining the Pac 10, but I think if the administration did do that, they would have to have plans for some way to boost the television revenue (either the Western Alliance, the Long Horn Network, or even a Texas College Television Alliance).
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Does the Pac-10 have a CIC type program? Is their plans on putting one in? If there is, that might be enough to push Texas west.
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No. Stanford is not going to allow Oregon St. and WSU students to take their classes and use their research facilities.
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I sure hope you aren’t getting my hopes up with all this talk of Syracuse.
Good post. My only nit-picky gripe is that I don’t think that B10 would stop at an odd number of schools, even if they plan to expand more in the near future. That would be like showing their cards after what they said when this was first announced.
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Oh, rereading I see that that was your point. I still see them adding 1 or 3 and then spreading some rumors that they’re still looking if their plan is going to 16.
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I think the Big 10’s better off going with one school right now…Nebraska …
As to Syracuse, no thanks. Private school with 19000 enrollment….located in a crappy, cold rust belt town…25M in federal research funds, which is probably 1/10 of Pitt’s total….limited football upside due to aging 50000 indoor stadium voted one of the 10 worst venues in college football…a long way from every other Big 10 school…and a long way from NYC….recent poll showed that less than 1% of NYC sports fans had Syracuse as their favorite sports team…and no, Rutgers was not listed in the poll, but it couldn’t have done any worse.
Rutgers—35000 students..flagship state school of New Jersey…when Rutgers is good, it will get more NYC attention than when Syracuse is good….I can remember when Syracuse was good in football(yes, it’s possible), and I don’t remember the level of enthusiasm in NYC that there was for Rutgers a few years ago. Rutgers isn’t quite the research powerhouse that Pitt is, but it’s probably 6X what Syracuse is…
No Syracuse please….
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When Rutgers is good? What, that one year that they were able to defeat all of their cupcakes?
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Regardless, I was in NYC then, and Rutgers got a lot of media attention. I wasn’t there when Syracuse was (relatively) good, but other than the (admittedly vast) number of alums they pull from Long Island and the other NY burbs, I don’t think anyone in NYC cares about ‘Cuse.
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Hey, mushroomgod. We all know you hate Syracuse. You’ve made that abundantly clear. But where exactly has the Carrier Dome been voted one of the 10 ten worst college football stadiums? Something on Bleacherreport, that you probably wrote? Heh. Googling the only thing I can find is that it doesn’t have air-conditioning (which is meaningless for football and basketball season). The only downside that I can see is expansion possibilities, which could be addressed with the proposed retractable roof. Ryan Field holds 47,130 to Carrier Dome’s 49,250. And the Carrier Dome is a helluva place to watch a basketball game.
Please show me a legitimate article, because I’d love to see.
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I don’t hate Syracuse, the college or the city. In fact I’m sure the city is very nice, in a freezing rain, rustbelt sort of way.
I couldn’t locate the article I had seen, but I did locate others of interest.
Justin Schuver, sports editor for the Madison, WI Record,named the CD as the worst college football stadium, saying “It’s like watching a game in a warehouse”. BTW, he also thought the “Orange” was the worst college nickname. Why was it changed from the “Orangemen”?
In a 10/8/08 article for the SU scout site, Jordan Lyndaker said of (potential HC) Lloyd Carr: “Carr has aways been able to work with top-notch facilities and a rabid fan base. At Syracuse, that would not be the case, with Syracuse being a ‘frozen tundra’ in the winter and an aging Carrier Dome(that many feel is outdated)….”
TripAdvisor touts SU football and basketball but also says “Both teams play in the large, impersonal, aging Carrier Dome…”
Movie Hawk/Travel says of Syracuse and the Dome: “…while the campus proper there is nice, and the support for the basketball team extends throughout the community, the town itself leaves a lot to be desired….the Carrier Dome-for all iuntents and purposes one of basketball’s new Meccas after the Orangemen won the title-is a bland, aging, basketball-focused version of Veteran’s Stadium.”
In a 2007 article for Fanhouse about possible replacement of the CD, the author states: “Replacing the concrete warehouse that is the Carrier Dome with a sexy new stadium certainly would not hurt Syracuse’s candidacy (for the Big 100”
Finally, in an 8/26/09 article for the Middletown (Ct) Press, the columnist writes about SU playing ND in the Meadowlands: “This was Goss chasing the money…playing the game in the posh new Giants stadium…instead of the creaky old Carrier Dome….”
Well, fellow Big 10 fans – ready to road trip now??
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I’m thinking it was changed to “Orange” from “Orangemen” for two reasons. The politically-correct answer is so the name doesn’t exclude female atheletes. The real answer is its an abbreviation of “Orange you glad you’re not at Rutgers.”
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Actually, I would think it’s because they don’t want to be (mistakenly) associated with a sectarian faction.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orangemen:
“Historically, to supporters of King William III of Orange.
To members of the modern Orange Institution – a Protestant fraternal organisation.”
The Orangemen in Ireland (and historically, in Canada & the US as well), were Protestants who opposed Irish Catholics.
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There is nothing in there that you couldn’t find written about a bunch of other stadiums. Because it’s old? Because it’s plain? I mean, you’re referencing TripAdvisor for Christ’s sake. Fact is, most stadium improvements are nothing more than a way to make more money (luxury boxes, etc). As long as beams aren’t falling on my head, I don’t care. At least you can buy beer in the Carrier Dome.
You keep saying how Syracuse is a frozen tundra in the rust belt. I thought you’re supposed to be showing how Syracuse DOESN’T fit in the Big Ten? 😮
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Comparing capacity size of a candidate’s stadium to that of Northwestern’s isn’t very compelling. Especially in a league with the Beav, Michigan and Ohio Stadiums, 3 stadiums exceeding 100K capacity. Being on par with the bottom of the league is not an endorsement.
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Both are private universities, with smaller enrollments that are reflected in the size of the stadium. Perfectly valid comparison.
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If Nebraska accepts and the P10 does take Colorado this summer, the implosion of the B12 may be faster than anyone imagined. I can see Texas and A&M moving before the start of the school year in that scenario. If they do go to the Pac10, I’m not sure if that puts more or less pressure on ND to decide.
Time seems to move faster every year.
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Would the Pac 10 just take Colorado? One school isn’t going to get them the championship game. They may need to bring in two to get some of their schools to sign off on the expansion.
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Yes, they need two. The permutations of Utah, BYU, et al have been debated to death. I was just thinking of the B12 when I typed that.
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Also, if the B10 can pursue an open-ended multi-phase strategy, why couldn’t the Pac10 take just Colorado and make it obvious they also want more?
Of course, if both B10 and P10 do this at the same time, power shifts back to Texas as they are able to play them against each other somewhat.
Ah, the fun of game theory.
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@loki_the_bubba – Hmmm… my thinking is that the Pac-10 would be taking a much greater risk than the Big Ten if it attempted to do that unless it wants to try to go up to 14 schools and is 100% convinced that Texas would move West. The Big Ten would still have a lot of options in its back pocket in my scenario regardless of what ND and the Texas schools end up doing – Rutgers would be my top pick there and you can make cases for Missouri, Pitt and even UCONN, too. The Pac-10, though, is fairly limited in what it can do. Other than Texas and Texas A&M, the only real appealing choices that they have are Colorado and Utah. If the Pac-10 were to take only Colorado, the Big XII would have 2 open spots and could invite Utah and BYU as a pair, leaving the Pac-10 in a real bind at 11 schools.
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Whoa, I think we were typing the same idea at the same time. Maybe in a parallel universe you and I are fighting black smoke on an island in the South Pacific? You never know.
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@allthatyoucantleavebehind – Ha! It’s like a Wrinkle in Time.
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No doubt the P10 has fewer options (and no doubt I did not think my post as thoroughly as I might have). But the P10 does need Texas (and maybe the Aggies) more than the B10. If Texas does not jump day 1, the P10 needs to try something or they are stuck at 10 or admitting a lesser player like Utah.
And unlike some, I would consider replacing NE/CO with BYU/Utah a major step down for the B12. I think Texas would too.
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Missouri is distant from the Pac 10 and will certainly hold out hope for a Big 10 invite.
However, if they get the impression they are off the table for the Big 10, they could make a decent move to the Pac 10 with Colorado. Yes, it’s far for travel, but the tv markets would certainly make it financially worthwhile.
Right now the Big 12 basically has Texas, Missouri, and Colorado as populated states in a 12 team conference. If MO and CO moved west, they would again be in a 12 team conference, but they would be trading Texas’ population base for the population of California & Arizona, a big gain.
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Loki,
The key is the Big 10 can immediately add the Chamionship game for instant revenue. If the Pac 10 adds one, what have they gained, really? Another mouth to feed with no real immediate revenue. No, I think the Pac 10 will act proactively at getting to at least 12 and closing the door on the Big 12 and it’s options (if Nebraska goes Big 10) as Frank pointed out.
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Taking Colorado “only” as phase 1 for the PAC10 might allow for Texas/ATM to move west. If you apply Frank’s “multi=phase theory” to the PAC10, they could also be gunning for 14/16? The impetus on them–it seems to me–is they ONLY have Texas/aTm if they’re looking for a blocbuster move. The PAC10 must snag Texas/aTm if they want to ever go past 12 with gusto.
The Big 10 has options, as we’ve been posting here endlessly the past three months. There are numerous scenarios west (Nebraska, Mizzou, Kansas), southwest (Texas schools), east (ND, MD, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers) and NE (BC, UConn). In combination, there could be numerous “winning additions” for the conference.
The PAC10 has Colorado, the Texas schools, and maybe Utah that fits its profile.
However, we haven’t heard any links about the PAC10 considering more than 12…yet! 🙂
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Dave Haynie wrote a couple of articles (Feb. 11 & 19, scroll down page) with an interesting look at TV slots and revenue numbers for possible candidates.
http://philsteele.com/Blogs/Individual_Team_blogs/BYU_Blog.html
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The Pac-10 taking Colorado would be a big boon to the Big 10. Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas are going to be wary of their position. If they stay, they will be in a watered down division that already was the weakest and are at risk of not having a contingency plan if the Big Ten completes expansion without them. Especially if one of the other Big 12 North teams goes to the Big 10. And if the Big Ten decides to expand beyond 12, it is almost inevitable that one team will come from the Big 12, so that pretty much puts the Big 12 North at four members (Iowa St, Kansas St, Kansas, and probably Missouri) and an unreasonable chance to have balanced divisions. And without a quick move, someone is left in the lurch or the Big 12 loses the title game revenue.
The other reason this is a boon for the Big 10 is that Texas and Texas A&M are still on the table and now the conjecture of major conference realignment is now reality. They now have options of Big Ten, Pac-10, or SEC. If the Pac-10 couldn’t get them to go to 12, then that doesn’t bode well to getting them to go to 14. The SEC would welcome them, but with the prospect of equity in the BTN and academics put the Big 10 in an enviable position. Plus ND would be coming at that point.
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I can’t see Texas seriously considering going to a Pac 10 that does not have a network and earns very little in TV revenue. I also can’t see an elite university like Stanford accepting a borderline academic school like A&M. Hate to say it, but the Pac 10 is probably screwed because of that unanimous vote requirement and their terrible tv revenue. I also think it would not appeal to Texas to play games on the west coast that could not be shown in prime time back home. I just don’t see it.
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I know Texas A&M isn’t much known outside of Texas, but it is not borderline academically. It’s better than several universities in the Pac 10 and Big 10 by several of the rankings people have brought up in these threads.
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Agreed. Good school. Excellent research numbers. Excellent cash reserves
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adding.
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multiplying
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dividing
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Adding
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square root
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Pulling Syracuse out of the Big East probably kills the conference. I just don’t know if that would be enough to for ND to act.
ND alumni value the independence of the University and the football team highly. I can see them sticking around with the Big East Catholic schools picking up Xavier and others Catholic mid-majors to form a BCS level basketball conference. Is it a money machine? No, but it should be enough to give the olympic sports a home.
As near as I can tell, the only way to force ND’s hand is to make it impossible to schedule November dates. For that you’d need *4* superconferences. I don’t know if the PAC-10 can come to a consensus on teams 11 & 12 much less 15 & 16. The SEC just did their TV contract, so I doubt they’ll look to snag TAMU and Oklahoma just yet.
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If the Big East dies in its current form why would ND not stay with the basketball schools that form a non-football conference? They would have a home for the other sports just like they do in the Big East now, without the questions of why they aren’t there in football. I’m starting to think the collapse of the BE as a football conference has no effect on Notre Dame thinking.
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@loki_the_bubba – If the BE Catholic schools got together in a separate league, that would be an excellent basketball conference. The issue would be all of the other sports. ND, as a massive football school, supports a lot of sports that would no longer have a league home or be completely weakened if the BE split up. Would ND care? I know that the alums wouldn’t because they can afford to only focus on football, but ND’s administration and overall athletic department likely have a more nuanced view on that. Obviously, football drives the athletic department bus, but normally the quid pro quo with the other sports is that they all get lots of funding and participate in a strong leagues. ND’s situation is the opposite of every other school in this expansion process – in order to “protect” football (specifically independence), it would actually be sacrificing revenue and competitive opportunities for all of its other sports. Like Texas, ND has an excellent top-to-bottom athletic department. Whether that can continue to be the case if it’s only competing against the other Catholic schools is an open question.
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I don’t pretend to know what other sports the ‘Catholic Big East’ would sponsor. Sorta why I threw it out. It would be interesting to see what varsity sports those schools sponsor. And what ND would lose by staying with them.
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ND supports doesn’t support near the number of sports that many Big Ten schools do.
Team sports that lack 7 other Hoop-only schools in the Big East are:
Men’s Lax
Women’s Lax
Softball
Baseball
Women’s Volleyball
Those last three really surprised me. I think even the Lax spots can easily be filled with a couple other Eastern non-football squads, perhaps from the CAA or something. Actually, Men’s Lax is the only team sport it will be difficult to find a worthy basketball school to fill the slot.
I don’t worry about the individual sports, since I figure finding them will be easier than the Men Lax teams.
Besides, this is a Big Ten blog, not a Big East.
More interesting to me personally is what happens to the CCHA if there’s a Big Ten Hockey conference. Again, tho’, Big Ten, not CCHA.
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@FLP …or the WCHA.
Now tht I’ve started to think a BTHC might be possible after expansion, I think there are a couple of scenarios.
For the BT, we would of course have the following:
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Ohio State
Michigan State
If Notre Dame joins, add them.
I do not believe (much as I would wish) that if the BT starts a hockey conference it will add schools not otherwise in the conference as full members. Why spread that BTN money around? Also, while I view the WCHA as the strongest conference in college hockey, I’m seeing this more and more a lateral move for all BT teams involved. UW, Minn, UM, and MSU have a combined 23 national titles if memory serves properly. Each has won a national title in the last 12 years. Now we add to that OSU and maybe ND (Notre Dame for this post, not the better NoDak), we are adding growing programs well into respectability.
That gives us six teams. If, by Frank’s suggestion, two more BT members add hockey to their list of sports, we have eight. I could easily see Northwestern, Illinois, PSU, or Iowa starting a team and having a fan base ready to go from day one. From expansion candidates we would have any number of choices who could definitely succeed in terms of fan support, based on location. In my purely unresearched opinion, they rank in this order (for beginning hockey programs, not ranked by expansion worthiness):
1. Nebraska-the state already has one D-1 program at Omaha, and the geography is right. NoDak has a rabid fan base throughout the West, mostly because there is no competition.
2. Syracuse-Well, college hockey is sort of an elitist, east coast, thing in many ways, andSyracuse has a lot of neighbors. and that’s exactly the problem. Loads of competition from close-by schools would make it difficult. However, if they offer scholarships, they’re already a step ahead of RIT, in-state competition who just made the frozen four.
3. Pittsburgh-Think this town isn’t hockey-crazy already?
4. Rutgers-Why not? They’ve been throwing money at athletics and hoping it sticks for a while now.
5. Mizzou-Okay, now I’ve lost all rationale for this list and am just adding names. I give up.
In any case, the BT would have a new league with four powerhouses, one or two established programs, and two-three new ones, who obviously start weak, but have good odds at improving rapidly. In any case, the “weaklings” wouldn’t drag down the conference any more than in other conferences. Just for fun, I’ll call it:
UW
Minn
UM
MSU
OSU
ND
Illinois
Iowa
Nebraska
As far as the CCHA and WCHA, that leaves them with 9 and 8 apiece. Each could survive on its own, although I think the WCHA remains the stronger league, with Denver and NoDak remaining. They could combine to make a conference nearly worthy of standing up to the Big Ten’s prestige, but 17 teams seems unwieldy. I’m guessing in the event of the BTHC, nobody moves, or there is a complete conference realignment even more than the bigs discussed normally on this post. I’m guessing there is no intelligent prediction for that.
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BC has a hockey team (as I’m sure you noticed) if they’re a candidate. UConn does as well. The Big10 could easily put together a hockey league that’s as good as any existing league.
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@Richard
Yeah. Those bastards got their revenge. I was AT the game. Badgers played like they were hungover. Eagles played like champions.
Grrrr. Anyway…
I just really don’t see BC as a candidate for expansion. They’d be great for hockey, but they’ve been a disappointment for the ACC in everything else.
Even so, with any teams filling out a conference headlined by the five guarantees mentioned earlier, the BTHC would be a premier league. Put BC in there and no one would be anywhere close, unless the landscape turned into a 2-conference country with the rest as hangers-on (i.e. BTHC competes against the Power Conference of NoDak, Denver, Miami, Maine, Boston U, and Cornell, and the leftovers formed the WeakA and WeakB conferences–in other words, no effing way.)
UConn has better odds as an expansion candidate, but it’s still not one of the major contenders discussed on this blog, which is why I didn’t include them.
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Yeah, I agree that BC’s not terribly attractive as a candidate (unless ND came along and specifically requested them). Even their terrific hockey team draws, what, 3K-4K per game?
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If added to the Big 10 Syracuse will absolutely start a Men’s Hockey team that will be competitive shortly after its inception. Central New York has plenty of hockey fans, and even more quality recruits.
Syracuse recently started a Women’s hockey team to “test the waters” for the eventual creation of a Men’s team.
To my knowledge athletic department budget restrictions are the only thing currently holding Syracuse back from having a D1 Men’s Hockey team. If added to the Big 10 however, expect Syracuse to launch a Men’s program almost immediately.
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Thought about it more today. I didn’t mention the WCHA because they would only lose two schools, but they’ll pick up Nebraska-Omaha. They’ll still have North Dakota and ten teams. The WCHA will be fine. It’s the CCHA that’d be in trouble, especially if ND leaves. ALL the big schools will leave for a BTHC leaving the CCHA in a MAC-esque situation, only with 7 teams.
I remember reading in a comment on a blog somewhere that if at least half of the Big Ten member schools play a sport, that sport has to be played under the aegis of the Big Ten. Can we even have six team hockey conferences? Can Penn State or others get going quickly to Div I status? Is every school obliged to get a hockey team?
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Not every team has to play hockey, just as not every team has to play baseball, or any other sport.
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Hey FLP,
I get that football independence is a big part of ND’s identity. My question is, do the other parts of ND’s identity matter so little that the university would be drastically different if ND joined a conference in football? I remember a post where you stated that you and your friends thought ND would be a different enough school from the one you attended that you wouldn’t donate any more, and you used the example of Parris Island to the Marines as a comparison to football to Notre Dame. Yet the Marines would still be the Marines even if they didn’t have bootcamp at Parris Island any more, and ND would still play football if they joined the Big10.
To give another example, Rice is still Rice even though they went from a major conference to a non-AQ one. No one is going to confuse Rice with Southern Miss. As a Catholic example, BC is still BC even after giving up football independence, and no one confused them with WVa when they were in the Big East or Clemson now that they are in the ACC.
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@ Richard
lol. Nothing like a loaded question, huh? Like I think I said, it’s all tied together.
Yesterday was a long day and I was tired when I came up with the Parris Island analogy. My bad; it wasn’t a good one.
Rice is Rice. A place I hear is a pretty dang good school in Texas. I think it’s small and private. I’m guessing it’s secular. The only thing about them I can say for sure is that they’re ranked near ND on USNWR rankings, and the NCAA videogame playbook for them indicates they run a lot of option. This is the totality of my Rice knowledge. As anyone who reads NDNation can tell you, BC is Fredo Corleone. The less said the better.
If the knowledge of Notre Dame was this lacking by a person who tries to stay informed, I’d say ND was failing as a brand big time.
*point of fact: None of us discussed if we’d still donate. I think many of us are either withholding donations due to prior grievances over the years that have got the NDNation crowd riled. I think a lot of the others just don’t have the money due to econ, baby, or wedding expenses. It’s a time of life thing.
The thing about joining the Big Ten is that it puts practically everything that makes ND unique and to us special under attack. Big Ten schools are huge both in physical plant and enrollment (except NU). Big Ten schools are secular (ND, one of the few places left in America where “secular” has a negative connotation). It puts it’s emphasis on Undergrads. I think I had maybe three classes with TAs, and maybe one of those was after freshman year. They don’t roll like that in the Big Ten, I’m told. I’m not explaining well…
But the big problem for me, the NDNation crowd, and a lot of us is what joining the Big Ten tells us about our leadership. It tells us that TPTB want us to look like Stanford or Duke or *shudder* Princeton. That they are willing and happy to sell out what we hold so dear for a few places on the USNWR rankings and being hopeful for esteem from the establishment who never like the Catholic Church anyway.
I’m sorry, I’m doing a lousy job of explaining. This is what happens after reading too much NDNation and then trying to write without cheesing y’all off, then I get too emotional to say what I wanna say. =) This is why I can’t watch the ND-Purdue game with my Dad…my Mother is no longer around to separate us.
—
This does a better job even though you will find it horrible. Remember, Domers made a conscious decision NOT to attend a Big Ten school, try to look at it from an anthropological mindset:
http://www.ndnation.com/blog/2009/12/no-means-no.html
Also, as unpopular as former ND Pres. Fr. “Monk” Malloy, CSC, was, his 1999 turn-down is in my mind just as applicable today:
http://www.und.com/genrel/020599aaa.html
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Last night I talked to one of my buddies I had the “If ND joined the Big Ten, would we have an alma mater?” conversation. As he reminded me, I can’t explain “residentiality” at ND to my Dad, how can I explain everything to you guys?
Richard, you’re asking the wrong question. What I think you really want to know is why the ND faithful DON’T want in your club. The question the Big Ten bigwigs should be asking is how the Big Ten helps ND.
As near as I can figure, there are three benefits:
1. TV $ (something like $20mil/yr-ish)
2. Benefits to the Grad Schools and Research
3. A fall back if ‘something’ should happen to the Big East Olympic sports (an ND will probably hear that in Fat Tony’s voice).
Three will be taken as a veiled threat, and ND doesn’t kowtow to outside threats.
Notre Dame is traditionally and culturally very Undergraduate oriented. Orders of magnitude moreso than the Big Ten. Current undergrads and undergrad and subway alums care little for the Grad programs, and their voices are much louder than the faculty and grad students. I don’t know that the CIC benefits are markedly better than they were in 1999. I do know that the CIC benefits weren’t dispositive back then.
The bottom line question if the TV money will offset the goodwill hit, the permanent forfeiture of institutional independence, and an eternity of “thirty pieces of silver” wisecracks. Yes, even we Domers understand that Big Ten membership is forever. Yet another reason for us to oppose it. I personally firmly believe that all sports are local (except maybe the NFL), and who knows how long ND remains a national brand playing >75% of games against midwestern squads.
God, I pray it isn’t.
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I say why not go all the way in and form a truly super conference with 20 schools? Two ten-team divisions would see one division comprised of all the old Big Ten schools before PSU joined. The other division would include PSU and all of the new schools.
Along with Frank’s Five, my suggestions:
University of Toronto – AAU member, geographic proximity, entry to Canadian market.
University of Miami – obvious athletic reasons (including baseball), top 50 USNWR ranking.
Florida State – academic standing may not muster but ranked 102 by USNWR.
The Florida schools capture not only the Florida market but also provide lots of national interest and would also benefit the conference by opening wide the Florida recruiting grounds.
Take your pick from the following: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Rutgers.
I might even advocate going to 24 schools with all of the aforementioned plus Kansas and Missouri. Or I might see if USC and UCLA would be interested.
Split into four six-team divisions and worry about scheduling quirks later.
The really juicy idea would be to capture all of the top 40 football schools outside of the current Big Ten and form a modern version of the old College Football Alliance. Why should the biggest schools making the most money share it with the less marketable schools ie all non-Big 6 conferences and teams like Vanderbilt, Baylor, Wake Forest, South Florida, etc, etc.?
The Big Ten could then form another cable network calling it the Big Ten Network 2 followed by Big Ten News Network followed by Big Ten Espanol and Big Ten 3.com.
Don’t laugh. Everybody laughed at ESPN2 at first…
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Frank, to paraphrase Homer Simpson, I hate you because you’re right.
However, my ace in the hole is also, ironically, that your argument is WAY too logical and makes too much sense to EVER come to fruition. Don’t forget that these Presidents are the same old coots who say straight-faced that a playoff would take too much time away from education. So no doubt these lunatics will ignore all common sense, go for the money grab and destroy years of history with their stupid, greedy and short-sighted decision(s). Remember that at one time the thought of Rome ever perishing was thought to be similarly impossible …
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This whole line of thought seems overly complicated. I think much of the same results could occur by simply going to Texas/ND/whoever and saying “We’re inviting Nebraska and Syracuse, want to come along?”.
I also agree with Loki et al. that the first move will be Colorado to the Pac-10. That should destabilize the Big XII and the Big East is already unstable.
While we’re on what it would take for ND to join, it is interesting to note that 5 of the 6 laypeople on ND’s “Board of Fellows” (which is like their Board of Trustees; ND has one of those too, but their role is unclear) are alums of Big Ten schools. Two are particularly interesting. The Head Fellow is Richard Notabaert, a Wisconsin grad who is also on the board at Aon Corporation. Now that name might not sound familiar to some, but the head of that corporation is Patrick Ryan. He is married to Shirely Ryan, who is also on the ND BOF. These are the Ryans of Ryan Field and Welsch-Ryan Arena. If those do not sound familiar to you, well then you clearly haven’t experience the toughest places to play in the conference.
I’m not really sure how this connection affects anything.
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@M – Good info on Ryan family connection on the ND Board of Fellows. They’re very influential in the Chicago area in general and Northwestern in particular.
As for the complicated line of thinking, I really wish that all of this could be achieved in a streamlined fashion. However, it’s more of the political factors in play with respect to Notre Dame (with its alums) and Texas (with actual politicians) that make me think that a multi-phase expansion would be necessary to have a chance at them. It’s bad enough for ND’s alums to join a conference at all, but if they join the Big Ten before the Big East is actually split up, they’re going to always believe that ND gave into the Big Ten’s bluff. That sounds petty, illogical and bass-ackwards, but if you’ve spent time looking at what the NDNation crowd thinks of joining the Big Ten, I think ND’s leadership needs to at least have the cover that the Big East was truly killed off. Likewise, Texas and Texas A&M can’t be perceived as the instigators that split up the Big XII – that would be political suicide in their home state. However, if they’re just responding to market forces beyond their control, then they have the freedom to move.
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I’ve looked at that board at times and I always seem to run into a “ND has more national championships than any Big Ten team since WWII, why is anyone even thinking of joining?” thread. You and I both know that no circumstances would be acceptable to most of the people there. None of the arguments gain any traction with them. Increased television revenue? ND doesn’t need the money. Academic benefits? Random alumni know what is good for the school much better than those lousy professors. Other sports don’t have a spot after the Big East disintegrates? They would rather burn down every other sport and piss in the ashes (figuratively speaking of course) than allow football to join the Big Ten. Also, some Yost guy was really really mean to them 50 years ago.
I guess my point is that the number of alums/fans/whoever-gets-to-make-decisions convinced by “The Big East is dead” is about the same as the number convinced by “The Big East will be dead”.
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We *do* know better than the profs. All they see is the ability to pad their own resumes, get raises, and probably get more gofers.
Just remember in that infamous game Against Nebraska, the Nebraska fans overwhelmingly got their tickets from Staff and Faculty (you can tell by where they were sitting).
(also, there were quite a few students in red “Nebraska Sucks” T-shirts, not realizing they were gonna be contributing to a preception)
The Big Ten’s problem is that aside from the money they can’t give us anything we want more than independence.
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>>Just remember in that infamous game Against Nebraska, the Nebraska fans overwhelmingly got their tickets from Staff and Faculty (you can tell by where they were sitting).<<
Notre Dame Stadium in Nebraska red. Testament to how rabid Nebraska fans are.
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Looks like C-USA ended up winning the conference expansion game by adding Alabama, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas AND Tennessee… for women’s rowing:
http://conferenceusa.cstv.com/genrel/041210aaa.html
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First, I see and appreciate the logic behind your post, Frank. I just can’t see trying to force a school to join the Big Ten if they don’t wish to join of their own volition. It’s not going to be a happy or stable relationship. It’s like trying to create a complicated master plan where, in the end, you “get to” marry Lindsay Lohan.
Second, where did you get the picture of my mother in law?
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LMAO, so true Scott.
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@Scott S: Ultimately I think this is my opinion about Notre Dame. If the ND administration has the same opinion of joining the Big Ten that ND’s fan base has, I think the Big Ten should just move on. If independence is important enough to go “all in”, so to speak, then I think the Big Ten should just leave them to it. The BT might miss out of possible revenue, but it might be worth it to avoid a conference member that fights you at every turn. The BT offers enough that it doesn’t need to beg someone to join.
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I think that’s one reason you don’t try to force ND to do anything right now. If the Big 10 adds 1/2 teams, and ND football doesn’t pick up significantly in the next 2-3 years, there might be a lot more acceptance of ND in the Big 10 at that time……if not, proceed with Plan B at that point.
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@ Manifesto
From what I hear, the Admin *want* into the Big Ten, along with the Grad Schools. It’s everyone else that’s the problem.
Thank God it’s not their call. In 1999, the “shadowy Board of Fellows” kept us out. I’m pretty sure they were majority ND undergrad then. There’s been changes in the past decade, and I haven’t checked recently if anyone has leaned either way privately. With the new TV money, I wonder if they still will place the same premium the rank and file put on Independence.
“[G}o ‘all in'” is an incorrect analogy here. We’ve been working this Independent angle since long before football. The Big Ten is requesting we forfeit it. TPTB at ND will determine if that’s a good idea. If it is, they better have some impressive reasoning behind it.
All in all, Mani, I agree with you, which is why I want ND independent.
@ Mushroomgod
The performance of the football team is a non-issue in the debate. We believe in it with religious devotion.
We also believe that with the right coach, we’ll compete for National Championships again. Things got bad in the 30s, and then Leahy won 4 MNC and told returning GI’s they might as well turn pro since many of them wouldn’t make the 2deep chart. The 50s had some bad teams but eventually we had the Era of Ara. After a point where we had a lovable high school coach, we got Lou and another MNC. Just saying it’s not unprecendented.
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@FLP_NDRox – I believe that someone pointed out that ND’s Board of Fellows now actually has a majority of laypersons that attended Big Ten schools. That might be a very big change from 1999.
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OK, just did the quick Board of Fellows Google. I’m just listing each of the Fellow’s initial Bachelor’s degree. Let’s face it: Grad school’s just a job compared to the attachment undergrad engenders.
Fr. Jarret, ND ’86
Fr. Jenkins, ND ’76
Bishop Jenky, ND ’70
I think Diana Lewis is a Domer
McCartan, ND ’56
McGlinn, ND ’62
Notebaert, Wisconsin ’69
Fr. Scully’s a Domer
Fr. Tyson, ND ’70
Fr. Beauchamp, U Detroit
Goodyear’s a Domer
Hernandez, Harvard ’77
Wow! I feel a heckuva a lot better.
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@FLP_NDRox:
Believing you’re “the right coach” away from it raining National Championships is the blessing/curse of any big program that isn’t on a winning trend. It can be true, and it certainly helps when rebuilding occurs, but it can also be an easy target and a small part of a larger problem.
Which is it for ND? Who knows. ND is now on Year 14 since Lou left and Coach #4. Perhaps you won’t have to wait as long as OSU did between NCs (32 years versus 22 and counting). Will the landscape be as accommodating if/when ND does return?
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Accommodating to what exactly?
Very few schools have completely fallen off. Even if you count Army and Navy. Fordham, Centre, the Ivies, The other eastern FCS teams, Carnegie, Carlisle, and Chicago are about the only ones I can think of. Then again, I can see similarities between them and Notre Dame…
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Frank for President!
Seriously this is a brilliant proposal.
And of course it assumes that ND and or Texas are not willing to join and create the package in partnership with the Big 10 at the outset.
First the Big 10 will clearly be talking to Texas and ND prior to or immediately after the Big 10 Presidents meeting in June. I would be surprised if informal discussions have not already taken place. However, public statements by ND and lack of apparent interest by Texas seem to indicate those schools do not see joining the Big 10 as their preferred option at this time.
The Big 10 has been stuck in it’s tracks for the last 20 years. The catalyst is not simply a conference game but a financial vehicle via the Big 10 channel that makes expansion work and upgrades the importance of targeting large, affluent new markets as well as enhancing the conference from a national perspective.
SU puts the Big 10 in the middle of the greater NY metro region market and if ND doesn’t come in as team 14 then RU consolidates that market as team 14. That achieves geographical continuity and affinity partnership with quality schools, along with a first mover advantage against a possible later expansion by the ACC.
At a later point, even if the ACC expanded with Pitt and UConn, they would be left with geographically separated northern islands that could not compete with PSU in PA, nor compete with SU and RU in the NY metro region.
Further with SU as a member, it is far more likely that the Big 10 would be the conference of choice for RU or any other Big East school even if ND for their own reasons later decided they preferred the ACC.
I personally believe an expansion of the Big 10 beyond 14 is very unlikely absent Texas. However, adding SU and NE certainly positions the conference for any unexpected additional expansion.
The 2 step approach in truth may be useful not because the Big 10 doesn’t know what will happen but to enable ND or Texas to decide to do whatever it is that they want to do, where many decision makers may need a “push”.
For reasons mentioned by other posters, I believe the Big 10 would be just as well served by adding schools that presumably don’t have to agonize over becoming members and fit in with the other schools.
The benefits of adding a national tier BB program with a historically strong Nebaska football program has the added benefit of strengthening the conference in both sports and may be politically important in winning a concensus among a potentially divided group of Big 10 Presidents.
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Re: Just changed my mind:
Alternative multi-phase strategy and priority of eastern markets:
The biggest risk of Frank’s multiphase plan is it’s potential lack of focus.
I doubt the Big 10 will go beyond 14 unless Texas is involved.
In pursuing a multi-market strategy, the Big 10 may end up with ND saying yes, but be unable to add RU to fully capture the NY metro region market, since it would have added NE. It also allows and perhaps encourages the ACC to expand north.
Guessing what Texas really, truly wants to do and adding NE to stir things up may not be as valid a strategy as identifying what are the priorities (schools or markets) and be guided by the goal.
In this respect, if the Big 10 wants the NY metro region market, perhaps better to just add SU and RU and then allow 3 -5 months for the dust to settle and then add school 14.
Inviting SU and RU as team 12-13 puts maximum pressure on ND to act, captures the key target market, maximizes the benefit that ND would provide the conference should they join and limits severely any options the ACC might have to expand if ND is not interested or if ND decides it prefers the ACC.
If ND and Texas are not interested, perhaps Pitt or another school might be considered: even without a new market, Pitt helps consolidates the northeast, has excellent football and a larger research budget and superior academics than NE.
Summary:
If ND joins, the Big 10 has added SU, RU, ND. If ND doesn’t join then the Big 10 has added SU, RU, NE or another school.
If Texas decides to join in, then the Big 10 has SU, RU, ND or NE, Texas, Texas A&M.
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If you were going to add 2 eastern teams, make it Rutgers and Pitt… Pitt is a research powerhouse and a geographic fit, and is more attractive to ND because of their history. It’s also a significantly bigger school-27000+ v. 19000+ Syracuse adds very little…but I wouldn’t add 2 crappy eastern teams just on the hope of getting ND anyway…I think Neb has to be in there…..
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Re Pitt as 2d eastern team (Mushroom)
Not sure why you constantly feel the need to use the word “crappy”, except to perhaps make a statement to others about your state of mind.
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Just to state the (hopefully) obvious. Rutgers would accept an invite to the BT in a New York minute. The only circumstance where RU might be unavailable is if the ACC made the first move and RU believed there was no BT invite on the horizon.
In a multistage expansion, if RU is in the plan, there is only a question of when to show that card. I somewhat disagree that Syracuse is the only (best) way to drive a stake into the heart of the BE. ‘Cuse may cause more psychological damage, but the BE (football) is already well traumatized. Any loss of SYR, Pitt, RU, UCONN does the trick. The virtue of an RU move is more money sooner (via NJ cable) and a clear indication the BT wants the NY/Phila markets. If the ACC doesn’t move to contest the Northeast markets it will be apparent the BT can control and develop the markets as it wishes.
Of course, this assumes the BE itself has no moves. Despite Frank’s earlier piece about BE responses, the BE commissioner seems incapable of doing anything dramatic to change the game. The football members may see ways of patching things up and moving along, but the future as a BCS conference will be in doubt and there is no doubt about increasing revenues (which is to say not gonna happen).
It is worth noting that the argument against any school re: the Eastern TV markets is not that school X is followed/not followed rabidly, but that these are not college sports towns. So the value of the market depends on selling college football as a brand. Who is going to say it cannot be done with the right budget and product?
ND and Texas enhance the product in a significant way, so regarding future revenue any move that puts NYC/Phila in the BT footprint ups the multiplier for adding ND/Texas. If ND was in, but needs protection from its alumni taking any school from the BE is enough.
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ever see the old Steven Seagal movie Under Siege 2:Dark Territory? Frank, you remind of the Eric Bogosian character, the computer genius who gets his kicks from playing with world leaders by keeping them guessing about where the death ray is going to strike next, lol.
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This is a No-Segal forum. Sorry. Keep your allusions to yourself. 🙂
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Colorado is culturally and in academics close to the PAC 10 they should be great choice.
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Adding
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first time didn’t work
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ditto, me
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I’d be excited about any of these scenarios…..but I think I’d be more excited if the Big Ten would stay at 14 or less schools. I’m of the school of thought that having a 16 team conference may be teetering on the side of greed and less on the side of what is actually going to work long-term as a healthy successful conference. If Nebraska were added as the 12th team; I’d be estatic. If the 3 teams added were Nebraska, Syracuse, Rutgers/ND/Pitt/Missouri; I’d be excited; if the Big Ten went ahead and added 5 teams with Nebraska included I’d be happy but a little nervous about how the cohesion was going to work 5 years down the road. Maybe I’m just being paranoid though.
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Great post as always. Frank, you should think about working for the Big Ten, if you don’t already…
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Yes, in theory the loss of NE opens the B12 to an equal revenue sharing vote, but why would those minor revenue schools vote for conference suicide? Such a vote would be the greatest way to ensure UT and aTm leave the conference, which kills the golden goose. The B12 minors would get 2 years of enhanced revenues, then a permanent reduction. One could argue that if they hold off and wait until after this next wave of expansion, they could then raid the cash cow without UT having a move option. But the P10 isn’t going past 12 without Texas, so the Longhorns will always have them as an option as long as the P10 writes an opt out into their new contract allowing for renegotiation if any school is added from a state of 24+ million. However several of the B12 minors may not have any other options that would even equal the revenue from the current B12 system.
As to state politics hindering UT and aTm from being the first to leave the B12, the political landscape is completely different now. The breakup of the SWC involved and threatened 8 TX schools. Leaving the B12 only potentially hurts 2, maybe just Baylor if TT is brought along. Back then the governor and lt. gov. (the 2 most powerful positions in the state) were both Baylor alumni with heavy interventionist leanings, but neither is the case these days. In fact the departure of UT, aTm, and perhaps TT (and NE+) from the B12 could result in from one to three Texas schools becoming BCS members as replacements. A net BCS gain for the state.
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Oh yeah, if the B10+ grabs NE, that may just makes creating a P16 more inviting for the Longhorns. If KS or MO fills NE’s slot in a P16, UT’s road to the football championship game will usually be easier each year, especially if the P16’s revenue sharing is merit-based (TV appearances.)
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Playoffs,
Isn’t the Big XII’s goose already kind of cooked, regardless of who votes how if Nebraska leaves? Assuming Nebraska goes, you can sure as heck bet that I would be voting for the equal revenue distribution if I am in the Bifg XII. If Texas is too stubborn (or handcuffed by the legisature) to leave, it’s great for me and whoever else joins the Big 12. Even better if Texas tries to create the Longhorn Network that will give me some additional revenue. Texas, if they can’t make a free decision or if they choose to go to the Pac 10, will be making a long term capital commitment to expanding it’s own revenues and the revenues of the Pac 10 (in a really tough college market, as Frank noted).
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From the outside looking in; the most attractive, and possibly the best additions for conference cohesion, would be adding Nebraska, Syracuse, and Missouri (if Notre Dame is willing plug them in Missouri’s spot). One of the most attractive assets for the Big 10 (and the biggest reason outside the BTN) for me as a Nebraska fan is the close knit feel that that Big 10 shares between all members. Nebraska was in a conference like that at one time; it was called the Big 8, but that cohesion has been a distant memory ever since the SWC teams merged. What I see in the Big10 is what I remember the Big 8 being like and that is something every Nebraska fan misses and would like to get back. Don’t for a second discount the value of conference cohesion…..being a part of the shot-gun wedding that was the Big 12 for the past 14 years I can say that bigger conferences are better if they destroy the relationships among conference members. Adding the group of 3 teams I mentioned above (I wouldn’t be opposed to PItt being one of those three, but I am a little leery about Rutgers) I believe would meet the athletic and academic requirements of the Big 10 while gaining new households for cable TV $’s and would keep the cohesion to the group much more tight knit. Adding the 3 mentioned above, the Big 14 could be split up as follows:
West
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Missouri
Illinois
Northwestern
East
Michigan
Michigan St
Ohio St
Penn St
Syracuse
Indiana
Purdue
Very balanced divisions with little disruption in the major rivalries. Also, if the format 2 years on/2 years off format would apply here (not saying this is the best format, just the one I’m most familiar with) where the West division would play 3 different East division teams every 2 years (Home/Away); then teams like Iowa and Nebraska would only have to travel out to New York (Syracuse) for a game every 2 years. Just an outsiders take on it…..
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Mushroom,
I like your line of thinking here…..i’m also for a one team expansion…..but if they do expand by 3 teams, how would you feel about a Nebraska, Missouri, Pitt expansion? I’d be on board for that….
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Thanks for not mentioning Syracuse….hehe…
You know, I think there are fairly serious drawbacks to any combination of 3 involving Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt, Missouri, and Nebraska. I certainly do like all 3 schools you mention. However, adding Neb, Pitt, and Mo adds 2 schools that would be rated 13th and 14th in the Big 10 academically, and 3 schools that would be ranked 10th, 12th, and 13th in enrollment. With the exception of Iowa and NW, all the Big 10 schools have enrollments over 40000. With these 3 we’d be adding enrollments of 24000, 27000, and 30000. The reason I think that is important is that Big 10 schools compare themselves to one another, and use each others as standards…when I was at IU, you’d see articles ln the IDS saying “IU ranks 10th in faculty pay” or “IU ranks 9th in class size”…
As an example, I love Missouri as an expansion candidate…but last night I’m looking at a book that is titled “The 348 best colleges” or something to that effect (my son is a HS jr.)and Missouri’s not even listed in the fricking book (Neb was, even Ole Miss).
So, although I really, really like both Neb and MO, I don’t know if I’d take BOTH, because of the academic issues…
All of this is one reason I like Rutgers, even though I understand their sports history sucks, and bball is likely to keep sucking well into the future…
When compared to Syracuse, Rutgers is bigger (35000 v.19000), better (118M in fed research funds v. 25M), a state school v. a private school, is much closer to NYC and, imo, has a higher football upside.
I believe Rutgers has a higher football upside because it has a very nice and recently improved outside stadium that can be expanded another 20000 or so in relatively quick order, and has a better recruiting base (NJ HS football is better than NY HS football).
Also, although both Rutgers and Syracuse are, for me, an uncomfortably long way from the other Big 10 schools, with Rutgers you’d still be tempted to go road tripping to see the Big Apple. I don’t think too many people are interested in road tripping to Syracuse….
So…..my 3 with no ND would be Neb (football gravitas), Rutgers, and Pitt. (Syr and Rutgers would be too much culture shock)…..with ND, it’d be ND, Pitt, and Missouri (with ND, you don’t need Rutgers, thankfully…and you don’t need Neb for football gravitas, and Missouri is otherwise the better choice).
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@mushroomgod – I love Pitt on so many levels, but simply can’t see how the Big Ten can get over their location, especially if we’re talking about a multi-team expansion. If Pitt could trade locations with Rutgers or even Missouri, then they’d be a no-brainer. Instead, I don’t know how they could expand the financial pie for the conference. The research aspect is obviously important, but that’s more of a “related but not direct” benefit to the CIC, whereas athletic revenue is shared directly between the schools. As Richard has said in prior threads, a school that doesn’t provide top research credentials at least doesn’t actually take anything away from the CIC (it just doesn’t add as much), but a school that doesn’t add athletic revenue is definitely taking away from the other members. Optimally, you want both, yet I still think the Big Ten’s approach to academics is more of a “first cut” – the conference sees if you’re academically acceptable and if the answer is yes, then you are eligible to move on to step 2. After that first cut, it’s solely an athletic revenue and strength decision.
So, does Syracuse make that first cut? My opinion is that they would – it’s an AAU member and while it doesn’t have the research strength of other candidates, it’s still a top 60 undergrad school that’s the only BCS school in the state of New York. To me, if 30,000 people are showing up to basketball games in Upstate New York and also pack in Madison Square Garden on a regular basis, that’s going to matter in the Northeast where we may need to pay a little more attention to the basketball side of the ledger. If the TV consultants have determined that NYC may be more like the states of Indiana, Kentucky and North Carolina, where it’s a basketball area more than a football area (and judging by how the Big East Tournament is a massive event in a town that supposedly isn’t into college sports, I tend to believe this is the case), then Syracuse makes complete sense.
I know that we will likely continue to disagree about Syracuse, but if the Northeastern market is important to the Big Ten’s expansion plans (and I believe that they are), then Syracuse is a valuable (if not essential) piece. The “culture shock” that you’re talking about might be the point – for the conference to turn NY and NJ into Big Ten territory. I honestly don’t think it really would be much of a culture shock, though – Syracuse is much more “Midwestern” in character as an Upstate New York school while Rutgers in the NYC area draws a lot of Big Ten alums already. Culture shock would be a more appropriate term if the Texas schools are added.
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Seems as though your total emphasis is on TV $s. I believe this is shortsighted…
Syracuse would be a far greater departure from the norm than you are willing to admit. It would be only the second private school in the Big 10. it’s 19000 enrollment is a full 10000 less than every other school in the Big 10, except NW. It’s fed research $ would be some $50M less than the lowest current Big 10 school, and 122M less than Pitt’s, not counting 275M for Pitt’s medical school, which is top-notch. It’s geography is terrible……if I was forced to take 2 eastern named schools not named Pitt, I’d take U Conn over Syracuse. At least it’s a public school, and somewhat larger….
These Big 10 preisents are like CEOs for giant corporations…..IU has something like 80000 students on a number of different campuses across the state…and many of the other schools are similiar…I hope that they are not interested in associating with a a small, remote private school like Syracuse….. Syracuse belongs in the Big East or the ACC, not the Big 10…
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Isn’t that why expansion is taking place? If it was about finding like-minded schools… why not just add Iowa St.?
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I totally agree. This is the way to go. I look forward to much more conference expansion chaos after the Big Ten selects Nebraska and Syracuse in Phase 1. The force is with them…. always.
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We don’t need Notre Dame
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The weakness in the Big Ten adding just one Big East team (like Syracuse) is that a competing conference, the ACC, has similar athletic and academic criteria for future expansion. Once the Big Ten adds Syracuse, the ACC would have an opening to counter-move by inviting teams like Rutgers and UConn (effectively building a bridge up to Boston College and tying up much of the eastern seaboard and New York City for the ACC). I’m convinced the Big Ten is better off going big or staying home as far as adding Big East teams. An addition of Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers and UConn (plus Notre Dame) by the Big Ten would effectively block the ACC out of remainder of the northeast and leave them with just an isolated bastion up in Boston. I’m convinced a lot of the speculation about the Big 12 being vulnerable to conference raids is off-base, it is really the ACC that could get blocked to the north by the Big Ten and then squeezed from the south by the SEC (with teams like Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech and Clemson possibly invited to move to the SEC in the near future). The ACC could still survive by picking off leftover teams from the collapse of the Big East and raiding Conference USA, but I doubt the ACC leadership would be real happy about that.
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Ron, you hit the nail on the head. If the Big Ten does not go for the big move as the first move the ACC will gobble up PITT, RU, UConn. DC to NY Metro to Boston market is now the ACC’s. If ND stays independent then the BT has lost the great opportunity. If the BT goes small first in a multi phase the remaining schools will not wait around and don’t be surprised if the ACC is the one to make seismic changes once seemed destined to be only the Big Ten’s desire. Big, big mistake by the Big Ten. I just don’t think Delany will do this. He has bigger plans and the dominoe scenario of multi phase is just too conditional for x followed by y to equal z. Too much risk of the whole thing falling apart. This is small thinking, not big thinking. I think Delany is a big thinker. Hopefully the ACC will be the biggest thinkers of all. Wouldn’t that be something.
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Re re alternative multi-phase strategy and priority of eastern markets (Ron and Rick)
Just changed my mind:
The biggest risk of Frank’s multiphase plan is it’s potential lack of focus.
I doubt the Big 10 will go beyond 14 unless Texas is involved.
In pursuing a multi-market strategy, the Big 10 may end up with ND saying yes, but be unable to add RU to fully capture the NY metro region market, since it would have added NE. It also allows and perhaps encourages the ACC to expand north.
Guessing what Texas really, truly wants to do and adding NE to stir things up may not be as valid a strategy as identifying what are the priorities (schools or markets) and be guided by the goal.
In this respect, if the Big 10 wants the NY metro region market, perhaps better to just add SU and RU and then allow 3 -5 months for the dust to settle and then add school 14.
Inviting SU and RU as team 12-13 puts maximum pressure on ND to act, captures the key target market, maximizes the benefit that ND would provide the conference should they join and limits severely any options the ACC might have to expand if ND is not interested or if ND decides it prefers the ACC.
If ND and Texas are not interested, perhaps Pitt or another school might be considered: even without a new market, Pitt helps consolidates the northeast, has excellent football and a larger research budget and superior academics than NE.
Summary:
If ND joins, the Big 10 has added SU, RU, ND. If ND doesn’t join then the Big 10 has added SU, RU, NE or another school.
If Texas decides to join in, then the Big 10 has SU, RU, ND or NE, Texas, Texas A&M.
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Have to stick by my guns. The Big Ten is well-advised to consider adding Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Rutgers and UConn (plus Notre Dame) all in one fell swoop. As a Minnesota grad who lives in Texas, I saw the Big 8 strengthen itself immensely by grabbing four major Texas schools, which effectively ended the Southwest Conference. Like the old Southwest Conference, the Big East in football has sort of an underdog appeal, but it is really a hodge-podge of teams that is not taken seriously on a national scale as a major football conference. The Big Ten is capable of appealing to the New York market in ways the Big East really cannot and would greatly improve its own long-term prospects for recruiting, finances and national visibility by becoming the first 16 team “superconference”. Also note Tony Barnhart in the Atlanta Journal Constitution has indicated such a move could already be underway. Assuming Barnhart’s sources are accurate, the Big Ten looks at northeast expansion as an all or nothing proposition. (http://blogs.ajc.com/barnhart-college-football/2010/04/05/what-happens-if-the-big-ten-goes-to-16-teams)
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Re eastern focus (Ron)
Another excellent post.
Adding SU, RU, UConn, Pitt, ND is certainly a bold and excellent move.
It has the benefit of focus, captures and maximizes big TV markets in NY, NJ, PA, Conn, New England, is a big tent strategy that brings in major regional rivals, enhances Big 10 BB, has geographical logic and includes quality schools.
In this respect, going after NE could simply be a distraction, with a limited market that has no connections assuming Texas is not included.
My current guess is the Big 10 is unlikely to go to 16 due to the concern of current teams about dilution of playing teams on their current schedule.
And then there is the politics of whether the Big 10 can achieve a consensus on such a northeast strategy.
One thing is certain: If the Big 10 offers SU, RU, Pitt and UConn membership and says to ND: do you want to be team 16?, ND has to say yes if they have any sense or the Big 10 then adds NE and expansion is completed.
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@c – I also really doubt that the Big Ten will go up to 16 schools (despite having written thousands of words speculating on it). That being said, I’m starting to believe that a simple 1-school addition isn’t happening, either (and I truly never thought that a multi-school expansion would be possible a couple of months ago).
So, 14 is the most likely number. Pick 3 out of the following 4: ND, Nebraska, Syracuse and Rutgers. Some 3-team combo out of those 4 is a pretty good bet as of now. I think the Big Ten really wants at least one Eastern school but it also has to have some “football common sense” with a national power involved.
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Realistically, you might be right about not just going to 12….
I do think adding only Neb.and awaiting developments is the smartest move..however, the Big 10 presidents might get some flack for not adding an academic heavyweight…and if they add only Rutgers they’ll get flack for adding a sports lightweight…
On the other hand, with 3 teams you might have more trouble getting 8 votes for any given combination…
I don’t see how you can leave Missouri out of your mix….if ND does come on board, I think Mo. gets the western spot…better geography, more tv sets, somewhat bigger school (30000 v. 24000), better bball, overall equal sports program…
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I have to agree with what you say regarding the number of program who will be invited and the likely candidates. If the B10 wants to emerge in its final form as a 16-team super conference with schools that have a relatively good (not perfect) academic fit, then what you’ve suggested does make sense.
What happens next? As you pointed out earlier, the ACC took five months to complete its invitation process when the original plan didn’t work out. Would the B10’s timetable be the same if it wanted to go from 14 to 16?
I don’t think the Texas/Texas A&M combination is possible given the way I currently read the tea leaves. That’s not to say its impossible, but with the Big XII losing one (major) member, I could see them mustering together some sort of replacement. But as we’ve talked about before in length, if Colorado opts to join the Pac 10, then it gets interesting for UT/ATM.
As you’ve pointed out, Notre Dame might be able to maintain its independence if the Big East lost (and replaced) two of its members. ND, for example, could place all its non-football teams in a Midwest/Eastern Catholic Conference, but you have to imagine the overall level of competition would be much less then if they were to join the B10.
But there aren’t many good candidates for the Big East to reach out to as replacements for Syracuse and Rutgers (UCF? East Carolina? Memphis?). That impacts the conference’s BCS status and much more directly for Notre Dame, the non-BCS bowl lineup for its football team. It also lays out scheduling problems for ND football in the latter two-thirds of the season. If the Irish aren’t able to put together a good run of opponents in October and November (outside USC), then it won’t matter if their schedule is 7-4-1, 7-5 or 6-6 (unless you’re an NBC executive–then it really does matter).
I still think the Big Ten will prioritize its list of expansion scenarios and present them to Notre Dame and Texas before going forward with any invitations. How those discussions go will help shape the nature of the expansion (along with a host of other factors).
I’ve attended games in recent years between Michigan & Notre Dame (2003) and Michigan & Texas (2005 Rose Bowl). These were two of the better sporting events I’ve ever attended and they go a long way in my mind towards demonstrating why UT and ND are front and center the two best candidates (something which you and many others have pointed out).
It should make for an intersting summer. Texas would probably have an easier time taking a pass on joining the Big Ten than Notre Dame, even if it did include Nebraska in the mix. There is the possibility of the dissolution of the Big XII, but I also think there are candidates out there that might fill in the blanks in the the slate (even if CU goes to the Pac 10)
I have to think it’ll be harder for ND to do the same for all the reasons mentioned in all the posts above. Yes, there will be vocal opposition in some corners against Notre Dame joining the Big Ten, but the decision makers will have to look at the bottom line and the changes taking place in college football.
In the end, I think it does end up being Nebraska, Notre Dame and Syracuse as the three invitees. If not ND, then Rutgers fills out the slate.
And then the fun really begins. . . .
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You may have a point there relative to the BB Big East + Catholic conference that could happen if Syracuse or Rutgers joins the Big Ten.
IIRC, ND was in a similar conference before joining the Big East. Actually, I think ND basketball and olympics jumped conference a couple times before settling in the Big East. I want to say it was to play a higher level of competition in each case.
Clearly the football team is priority 1 at the ND AD’s office. Number 2 is how we do in the Sears Cup. If our Sears Cup standings would be significantly compromised that may be used as excuse if the Big East is euthanized and we don’t throw our Olympic program’s lot in with the non-football BE schools.
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@Ron – Well, there is a big difference between the old SWC and the current BE: Texas and Texas A&M were always clear powers in a region that loves college football, while no one really qualifies as such from the BE. Adding all of those BE schools would do wonders on the basketball side of the equation, but we all know that’s a pittance compared to football. IF the Big Ten goes this route with a mass annex of BE schools, then I think that you need to swap out either UCONN or Pitt for Nebraska. For market purposes, UCONN likely gets the nod as that locks down the Tri-State area and gives the Big Ten a presence in New England.
Nebraska is really growing on me more and more – this is the #4 most valuable college football program according to Forbes that’s next door to Iowa with an incredible traveling fan base. The small market doesn’t matter if the Big Ten’s analysis shows that a school like Notre Dame would be profitable (who, for the purposes of the Big Ten, effectively has a home market population of zero but brings the aura of a national name) and especially if you’re simultaneously adding much of the NY market. The university presidents are going to balance a lot of factors, but I don’t think they’ll have such tunnel vision that they’d forget about the #1 revenue driver of football (which Nebraska excels at FAR beyond everyone that we’ve talked about other than ND and Texas).
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I’m a fan of adding RU, SU, and UConn to lockup NYC & all 3 states in the tri-state. Then 2 of Nebraska, Mizzou, ND, Pitt, BC, or Maryland (if they’re willing to break from the ACC). I wouldn’t even put ND on the top of that list. Probably Maryland would be my first choice as school 15.
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Except that the B10+ still has the much bigger payout per school, and it will take the ACC a long time to ramp up a similar cable venture (even if it signs an agreement today with the P10 & B12 to share start up costs and efforts.) Hence any attempt by the ACC to lock up the northeast would simply result in a higher counteroffer by the B10+ if the latter wants those schools. The ACC could speed up the B10+’s expansion stages, but they are unlikely to thwart them.
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@Playoffs Now! – I agree with this – if I’m the Big Ten, I wouldn’t be scared of the ACC. As long as there is an open spot in the Big Ten, I don’t think schools like Rutgers and UCONN will jump to the ACC until the Big Ten is completely done with expansion because the payout differences between the conferences is so huge. This multi-phase expansion wouldn’t take years, by the way. It would be more like over the course of a few months at most – the Big Ten makes an announcement, schools like Notre Dame get one legitimate last chance, and if they don’t sign up, then the conference completes its expansion with Rutgers.
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Months is a different story Frank, I did not get that impression from your article. I was assuming 1-3 years. I also didn’t see your scenario including Rutgers.
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@Rick – I think it would be relatively quick. Think of how ACC expansion worked last time (not that it’s necessarily a model that the Big Ten ought to follow) – after all of the political infighting, the ACC added Virginia Tech and Miami. The ACC then went into some fairly heavy discussions with Notre Dame. When those completely broke down, BC was quickly invited instead. All of that took place in about a 5 month period. More than the Texas schools moving, the multi-phase expansion plan would really be one last chance for ND (and the Big Ten would be truly serious about it).
Rutgers is key to this – I think the Big Ten has made it clear that it likes Rutgers enough that a Nebraska/Syracuse/Rutgers combo would be a perfectly fine outcome for the conference. I don’t think that it’s an accident that the Big Ten has leaked studies showing how much Rutgers could add financially. That’s really what I was describing at the end of the post where the Big Ten would effectively have a hedge. Nebraska and Syracuse are schools that the Big Ten would want regardless of any scenario and happen to apply a lot of pressure on ND and the Texas schools because of how important they are to their respective conferences. If neither ND nor Texas bites, though, then the Big Ten is fine with completing expansion with Rutgers to form a 14-school conference that hits the athletic, academic and financial targets.
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The problem is that if they takes Rutgers, Nebraska, and Syracuse in “phase 1” there is no room for BOTH Texas schools and Notre Dame.
I think getting both Texas schools is a must for the Big 10. Not just because you want two southern buddies, but b/c aTm is valuable as well and you want to forever solidify your hold on the region.
I’d take Syracuse and Nebraska. Lure the Texas schools in (or push them west). Push Notre Dame towards a conference.
Notre Dame will take the bait. The Texas schools might go west. Then you either sit at 14…or strategize to solidify eastern stranglehold (i.e. Maryland, Rutgers, Pitt, UConn, BC, et al)
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Frank—ND wouldn’t be ready to move in 6 months. The AD would be strung up or ran out of town on a rail. They MIGHT be ready to move in 3 years, if BK can’t get it going in a big way.If BK does get it going big-time, they won’t be ready in any event….
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@mushroomgod – Heh – it’s kind of like of having kids: if you wait until the “perfect time”, you’ll never have kids. Same thing with ND – they’ll never be emotionally ready to join a conference. The Big Ten has to determine whether they’re still worth waiting for.
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yes, but if the Big 10 adds Neb. now,even if ND resists, TX might be in play in 2-3 years, if the Big 12 unravels…I’ve always agreed with you about the worth of Tx.,,
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I don’t think the purpose of Big 10 expansion is to destroy the Big East or the ACC….adding ND, Pitt, Syr, Rutgers, and U Conn would be adding 2 private schools, and enrollments of 11000, 27000, 19000, 35000, and 24000. This to a midwestern league where 10/11 are public schools and 9/11 have enrollments over 40000, and a 10th has an enrollment of 29000. Can you say “serious culture shcck”? Why does everyone on here think they’re fricking Donald Trump out to destroy all competition?
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The two critical teams to prevent ACC dominating up and down the seaboard are Syracuse and Rutgers. Pitt only geographical extends the ACC, I don’t believe that they will have any real impact since they are only bring a portion of the Pittsburgh market and won’t bring Philly or any other eastern seaboard city. UConn would actually be better since this gives BC a rival and traveling partner as well as a chunk of the NY basketball market and strengthens the ACC’s hold on BC.
If the Pac-10 expands with Colorado/??? or Texas/A&M and Nebraska is still available, then I think they could be considered a strong play for the Big Ten. However, if they go incrementally, there is not another conference that is capable to swoop in and grab Nebraska (or Missouri or Kansas). Thus, my preference would be to add two teams, Syracuse and Rutgers. Then at 13, you can approach BC and see if they are interested. If so, then it doesn’t matter who the ACC adds from the remaining Big East schools.
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Nit: Spot on from a strategic market power play strategy
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I’d go with Rutgers, ‘Cuse, & UConn to deny the ACC any part of the tri-state, then add Nebraska as the 15th team. 16th is dependent on whether Maryland or ND will join or not. I’d actually prefer Maryland to ND. Maybe even Mizzou as well. Hope the Big10 presidents like Nebraska over Mizzou (or hell, Syracuse over Mizzou) as well.
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With Rutgers, Syracuse and UConn, you haven’t touched the Boston market. In this case, I think it is better to try and grab BC since they you have the Boston, New York, and Philly rather than just New York and Philly. Even if the ACC has UConn, they aren’t going pull NY away from the Big Ten since PSU, Rutgers, Syracuse have more combined alums in the area than the ACC would have with UConn.
That also leaves you with the option to convince Maryland to join as well. That would be the true power play in locking up the entire Northeast Corridor from D.C. to Boston.
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The problem is that BC isn’t much of a draw even in Boston. Think Northwestern in Chicago.
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@ richard
: BC isn’t much of a draw because a) pro sports dominate Boston, b) relative to public state schools they have fewer alums, and c)haven’t been an elite school with a empassion rival to increase viewership.
However, I think that BC is attractive because it opens the door for the BTN in Boston since there are a lot of Big Ten alums in the Northeast. The competition in the Big East was weak enough that not many people cared about BC nor the team they were playing. In the ACC, BC is so far removed from the conference that developing a rivalry has been slow. In the Big Ten, though many more people will care even if it is because they want BC to lose. Naturally, this will make for more passionate BC fans to root against others. If ND also comes, that makes for a good rivalry game.
And to boot, BC has a great hockey team. As noted before, outside of basketball and football, only baseball, hockey, and lacroose playoffs generate revenue. Syracuse adds lacrosse, BC adds hockey before long the BTN will have a lot of quality games to air.
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I think BC makes sense only if ND decides to join. Between them, you can make a serious play for all of New England. Without ND, I don’t think the Big10 alums that end up in Boston is enough.
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@Richard – Completely agree on your last line. Mizzou and Nebraska make a nice tandem on the western edge of the conference if they come in together. However, I REALLY hope that if it comes down to a choice between the two, the Big Ten will not get tunnel vision with the households in the state of Missouri (even with as much as I love to talk about markets). They are effectively equals academically, but there is no debate about the national draw. If you’re going after the NYC area, then it’s OK to think a lot about households, but don’t do it for an area like Missouri.
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How much is your favorite worth?
http://www.rivalryesq.com/2010/4/13/1360684/the-expansion-game-how-much-are
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@Mike: It’s a good article, although I will say Pittsburgh’s demographics rating should probably have an asterisk by it. I love Pitt as a football fan, but I think others have a point that they’re not as worthwhile from a television revenue standpoint.
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@Manifesto I think they did a good job with what they had. In addition to the Pitt numbers you mention, Nebraska’s “home” market isn’t Omaha by itself. If you take football out of the mix, the people going to Nebraska games (baseball, basketball, etc) are from the I-80 corridor between Lincoln and Omaha. That area is about 1 million people. Kansas’s home market is vastly understated as well as I think they might be missing the suburbs. That being said, I don’t think their rankings would change much. The analysis does point out how overrated Missouri is as an expansion candidate though.
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This article is heading in the right direction but has a few issues, like using 2 year old financial data and strangely assigning tv markets and using population figures instead of tv households. The last fiscal years financial summaries are in, why aren’t they used?
More importantly, while tv households will make the Big 10 network a premium on cable carriers, RATINGS are how advertising is sold. If the ratings are not high enough, it will be removed from the basic tier. If ratings are low, advertising rates drop accordingly.
I guess what I am not understanding fully is the weight that people are placing on population (METRO & STATE). If Rutgers home market population is 8.3 million and Nebraska has a nome market population of around 430,000 from the article….. Why does Nebraska’s average attendence beat Rutgers 85,888 to 49,113 and why does the NU athletic department earn $20,000,000 more per year?
An oblivious population is not nearly as valuable as a devoted one.
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Hey Frank..what about the Big 11 adding Pitt?
-You’d get a big market
-Penn State vs Pitt as permanent rivals
-Put Pitt, PSU, OSU, and maybe Michigan or MSU in the same division, and you’ve got a good market for the in conference games on TV.
-With Pitt vs OSU, you could call it, after 2-3 years for example, a mini version of the Bengals-Steelers or the Browns-Steelers.
Whatta think? I think it’s a good idea, but that’s just me.
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shot down mainly here:
https://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2010/02/01/why-the-pitt-joining-the-big-ten-rumors-are-false/
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Even better is:
https://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2009/12/27/the-big-ten-expansion-index-a-different-shade-of-orange/
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@ Doug, I’ve shouted this from the internet rooftops over and over, but THERE IS NO WAY THAT BYU WILL BE ADDED TO THE PAC 10. Since each Pac 10 school has a veto vote in essence, there is no way a liberal school like Cal will ever allow a conservative Mormon based school like BYU to join the conference (the church of the LDS poured millions of dollars into California to help pass the gay marriage law that went into effect last year). It’s a stretch at this point whether or not Utah would even be allowed. Just scratch that from your list of possibilities.
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@ Rich, I just don’t like 20 team conference idea. Does competing for a national championship even matter at all? I, like Frank, am a follow the money guy, and know that many practical considerations like this could be sold for top dollar. But how unfair would it be for a Big 10 team to try and come out of a 20 team conference when other conferences would be sporting 8 & 10 team members? How often would you be playing teams in the other conference? Wouldn’t you basically have to completely give up playing OOC games? Could you really have a happy marriage of 20 partners for a long period of time? I just can’t see this working.
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@Michael Ziemba: I wouldn’t read too far into Rich’s proposition. As people have continued to discuss the prospect of ND joining, despite his protests, he’s become increasingly cynical and surly. It’d be funny to be a fly on the wall in Rich’s room if ND actually did join.
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The post by Rich to which Manifesto and Ziemba refer was not authored by Rich, the poster who has offered a devastating critique of much of the wishful thinking masquerading as “analysis” on this board on the benefits presumed to accrue to ND if they joined the Big Ten.
Frank, identity theft has occurred on this board. Thus, I have changed my name “Rich2.”
Nebraska, Syracuse and Rutgers are perfect targets for the Big Ten expansion and I hope that the Big Ten does add these three institutions.
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A point of clarification: It would benefit the Big Ten and be tragic for ND if ND joined the Big Ten, in phase one, two or three. If ND somehow was faced with a situation where joining the Big Ten was the best option available, then of course I would accept it. But I and thousands of other alums would demand that someone at ND be fired for allowing the situation to reach such a point. I notice that Dr. Kevin White, AD of the Year, was pushed out after the 7-4-1 debacle and he landed at Duke.
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@Rich2 – The 7-4-1 “debacle” is necessary for ND’s independence now. In order to continue to receive the maximum amount from NBC as well as mitigate the revenue disadvantage that ND is now experiencing compared to the major Big Ten and SEC schools, ND must have that extra “neutral site game that’s an ND home game”. If Kevin White was really pushed out because of the scheduling philosophy, then that’s ridiculous since that’s part of the bargain for maintaining independence. ND’s alums need to understand that they can no longer have their proverbial cake and eat it, too. If they want independence, then that’s fine, but that comes at a cost of lower revenue and the 7-4-1 schedule that lessens the opportunities to play the “national schedule” that makes such independence attractive in the first place. That’s one thing that the NDNation crowd needs to understand – I see a ton of comments that if ND just went back to a 6-6 or even 7-5 schedule, then the “national schedules” would return, but that fails to take into account that the 7-4-1 schedule is a critical part of what allows ND to continue to be independent. ND can never go back to having less than 8 games per year on NBC if it doesn’t want to join a conference.
P.S. I apologize for the fact that your identity was stolen!
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Rich, this is non-nonsensical. Why would you presume that the ND AD could control the events that might transpire? While I agree that much on Frank’s site is just interesting speculation, if the conferences start to realign, what exactly do you think the ND AD could really do about it? I really do understand ND fans that want to maintain their independence, but this stubbornness on the part of such fans to even entertain the possibility that joining a conference might be beneficial to them is exactly why I criticize their fan base so harshly? What part of the profits from the Big 10 network and the the SEC’s $3 billion dollar ESPN deal do ND fans not understand? Money aside, i think it is very plausible that the independence thing will also make it more difficult for ND to play in a BCS championship game. They could have gone undefeated last year, and I still think Texas was going to play Alabama. Whether you like it or not, winning a conference (including the CCG) is a major factor for voters, in large part because of the SEC’s success the last ten years or so.
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Seriously, besides the money, what’s the real benefit?
What profit is there for a school to gain the whole world and lose it’s soul?
Or at least that’s how we look at it.
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Competing for a national championship in football. I know you Domers want to believe that ND can still compete for national titles as an independent in the future, but if there comes to be 3 mega-conferences each staging conference championship games, and ND has to keep their (rather weak) 7-4-1 schedule in order to bring in enough TV money to stay independent, then ND would always lose out if they have the same record as the champion(s) of the mega-conferences.
Again, reasonable people can disagree about whether ND will go the way of Army if they stay independent, but even if you’re OK with that, would administrators (who’s jobs are affected by how much money ND football brings in) be OK with that? Ultimately, money is real, talk isn’t, and if perfect or near perfect seasons still don’t mean a chance to play for the national title, coaches, admins, and most importantly, recruits, will take notice.
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Any MNC game that exclude the Irish by rule will be considered even less legitimate than the one we have now. I’m not sweating it. Maybe I should.
The other part of the conference money is that I have no reason to doubt ND will lose *tons* of donations if they went to any conference. According to folks in the athletic department publicly, independence is our greatest recruiting asset. Maybe that’s political cover, but I believe it.
The media loves conferences since they make their life easier. I don’t know if any kid dreams of playing for a conference championship.
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@FLP_NDRox:
I don’t think Richard was suggesting that the rules of the game change such that ND is officially prohibited from ever getting into the MNC game. If I’m misunderstanding, Richard, feel free to correct me.
My understanding of his statement is that if there end up being 3 super conferences, and in a given year two of them and ND end up with similar records and are in contention for the MNC, odds probably going to be very much against ND getting the nod over the other two. Because ND’s schedule with the 7-4-1 format is already somewhat watered down from their historical strength, and with three super conferences encompassing the majority of major football teams it’s arguable that future schedules will water down further in the future.
And even if they don’t water down further, when you look at the present day, if ND had been undefeated last season I don’t see them getting in over Texas and Alabama, or over Oklahoma/Florida the year before, and perhaps not a two-loss LSU team in 2007 if ND had had two losses as well. That’s conjecture for sure, but I’m unsure if any non-ND fans would disagree. I’m unsure it’s reasonable to say your best (and possibly only) shot at a MNC every year in the future is to hope to be one of only two undefeated teams. Is independence worth that if so?
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“I don’t know if any kid dreams of playing for a conference championship.”
Clearly you didn’t follow any of the big conferences closely as a kid!!!
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I don’t know if any kid dreams of playing Washington State in San Antonio.
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Manifesto, you explained it well.
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I kind of doubt Kevin White was pushed out because of the 7-4-1 scheduling, because ND is still sticking to it in future years even after he’s gone.
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I think Rich is attempting to satire the expansion fever that has gripped many discussing this topic. I wouldn’t take the post seriously.
However, if the Big Ten expands to 64 teams and can start its own NCAA-style tournament (December madness anyone?)–now you’ve really got something. (The key is to start with the lucrative el Paso market…grap UTEP and the whole thing falls into place.)
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Fear not, everyone! Ron Zook knows what’s up with expansion:
‘Zook on expansion: “Somebody’s going to have to come up with some money to buy into it.” Says Big Ten will only add a $$-making school.’
http://twitter.com/ESPN_BigTen/status/12114071919
If the Big Ten adds schools the way that Zook recruits, the conference will add Texas, Notre Dame and USC… and then promptly find a way to lose money on the whole thing.
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@Frank: Rumor is Zookie Monster’s already sent out verbal offers to every school in Ohio for Big Ten membership. Sorry… OSU recruiting joke. 🙂
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If you’re not already following Adam Rittenberg on Twitter, there’s a slew of quotes from Joe Paterno regarding Big Ten expansion: “Expansion is coming.”
http://twitter.com/ESPN_BigTen
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@Frank: I read Rittenberg on ESPN.com, and he’s usually got an informed opinion. I know he reads this blog, as you two have given the nod to one another a few times now. Now, the real question is, is our esteemed blog contributor “Adam” Mr. Rittenberg himself? 🙂
Oh, and Paterno saying expansion is coming doesn’t shock me. He’s been beating that drum since PSU joined I think, or at least heavily advocating it.
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Hah! Nice to be “esteemed.” But I am not Mr. Rittenberg — I’m a lawyer, not a journalist.
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@Adam: Yeah, I assumed. Fun to joke around though.
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I’m a lawyer, not a journalist.
Well, you did nail down confirmation on the number of votes needed for expansion, so I’d say that qualifies as a journalistic scoop.
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the media keeps asking the coaches who will probably be the last to know
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college/2010/04/big-ten-coaches-weigh-in-on-expansion.html
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Pingback: Frank the Tank: How to create a Super Death Star Conference
Frank;
Intriguing, but I really believe you’re overthinking this matter. There are schools that would join the BT in a heartbeat. Why the subterfuge? Just invite them. Texas & Texas A&M might be good additions but forcing them creates resentment and makes the BT into a “loose confederation.” They are a more natural fit for the PAC 10. And if you read between the lines of recent Swarbrick PUBLIC comments, it’s clear that he’s setting his alums up for eventually joining a conference. Where else would N.D. go but where the money is?
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The Texas schools wouldn’t resent being in the Big 10. The issues would be whether they have rivals and whether they can explain it to Texas politicians and average local fans why they are leaving the Big 12 (and Baylor/Texas Tech) to a conference that is seen as distant and inferior to the SEC and Big 12.
Nebraska announcing it’s going to the the Big 10 gives the excuse to do something administrators may want to do anyway. With Nebraska leaving they can claim they need to leave a Big 12 that is falling behind nationally. With Nebraska already joining the Big 10 they have one rival they’ll already be familiar with in the new conference. Fans would understand that with OSU, Michigan, PSU, Nebraska, and Texas, the Big 10 will now surpass (or at least equal) the SEC as the premier football conference in the nation.
Now if Texas administrators don’t want to join the Big 10, they still won’t. They’ll either join the Pac 10 or make the Big 12 work by taking charge of who’s added (and I’m not sure BYU wouldn’t vote for unequal sharing; wouldn’t they be the most desirable program for national TV networks in the Big 12 north?). But if the schools want to join they’ll join with no resentment.
There will be still be some consternation from fans just like when the SWC folded. That fuss died out almost immediately when the excitement of playing in a more national conference took over the first year; I think it would happen almost as quickly in the Big 10 if they joined with at least one other rival.
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m (AG), I have been writing on this quite a bit lately too. I put together a 16 team conference model that is essentially a merger of the existing b10 and five B12 schools which would satisfy the rivalry thing. My idea is a compilation of some Franks, the Barking Carnival’s, and my own. Check it out if interested at: http://thepolesposition.com/2010/02/18/2018-big-16-championship-ohio-state-28-texas-24/
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Nice article. One small change…Iowa, Minny, and Wiscy should join your five Big 12 schools. They are current protected rivals in Big 10. Throw Illinois and NW in the “eastern” division.
Your theory isn’t bad…but I don’t think the five Big 12 schools would add enough TV markets. The Big 10 Network is already in Missouri (minimizing their importance to the conference). By adding two powerhouse Texas schools, you, in effect, create a corridor from Illinois-Iowa down through the heartland. Plus, the eyeballs in Texas alone dwarf the amount of all of those heartland states you’d be guaranteeing with a Kansas/Nebrask/Mizzou trifecta. I like the national “name” value of your trifecta…but that doesn’t trump their minimal home markets.
If they can get Texas and aTm, and you make a strong case that they can, they don’t need the other three.
At that point, they should go for other big markets. NYC, DC/Baltimore, New England, or the national appeal of Notre Dame. I just don’t think they’re interested in ingesting that much of the Big 12; there’s way more population (outside of Texas) in the Northeast.
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I wrote a little about a 5 team Big 12 raid on Frank’s last post. Nebraska has 1.8 million people and Kansas 2.8 million (wikipedia), so it’s hard to see them both being added by the Big 10 unless Texas really wants it and the Big 10 is happy not going East.
I think it can be rewarding for the Big 10 to just grab 5 schools to the West, but they’d rather keep Colorado themselves in that scenario. With 2 schools from Texas (24.8 million people), 1 from Missouri (6 million) and 1 from Colorado (5 million), you can take Nebraska to connect the geography a bit and provide another national name. Texas isn’t quite connected to the other states, but it’s only a trip through Oklahoma to get to Colorado or Missouri.
Those 5 schools add an average of 7.52 million people per school. To compare that to the current Big 10, there are only 4 Big 10 states that have that many people. In 2 of those states (Illinois and Michigan), that population is divided between 2 Big 10 schools, so they bring less than 7.52 million per school. Only Penn State and Ohio State could say they bring more population to the conference than the average new school.
Now, you could swap out some of those non-Texas schools for Syracuse (19.5 million in NY) and/or Rutgers (8.7 million in NJ) and come out with an even more impressive number. This is obviously what Frank is proposing. However, it’s more questionable that they’ll be smoothly integrated and that those states will follow football as devoutly.
The fact that the Big 10 network is already present in some of these states doesn’t matter much, since the cable rates for the Big 10 network for states with Big 10 teams go up significantly. Adding these national names will also spread the network to basic cable in even more areas of the country. The Big 10 might also add a second station and charge a little more if they add 5 schools.
Other bonuses:
-Colorado would give the Big 10 one school in Mountain time, so they can naturally host ‘late night’ games for the Big 10 network.
-With the Big 10 adding some Thanksgiving week games, it will have 2 rivalries that have already been broadcast nationally Thanksgiving week: Texas vs A&M and Nebraska vs Colorado.
-The Big 10 wouldn’t have any culture clashes with private schools.
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@alsace, it may very well be that all the Big 10 was after in the first place was ND. From a geography and money making stand point, they are perfect (I do think the religious aspect of their school could be a problem with the research component of the CIC schools, but I think the B10 is willing to look past this). Every other school is less than perfect on these two fronts. So it would not surprise me one bit if all of this gamesmanship was being done to try and lure ND into the fold. Just my two cents worth.
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Michael; Do you really think ND needs to be lured? Check out Swarbrick’s recent statements on conference membership, made publicly, and its amply clear that he’s actively selling the concept to his alums. The machinations behind the scenes toward the creation of “super-conferences” are well under way. It’s a money game and ND is too smart to be left behind. ND will follow the money
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Are you talking about the comments at the Big East MBB tournament? He’s been backing off them as far as he can without lying.
Notre Dame not only needs to be lured, they hafta find a face-saving explanation to the fanbase.
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JoePa isn’t making the expansion decision, but I really like this quote:
“When you get married, you better marry somebody you love, and that means somebody who appreciates what you want to do,” he said. “It’s a question of bringing somebody in that can handle the academics, the research, AAU schools preferable, commitment to women’s sports, the commitment to all sports programs. Now can you find one, two, three, four? I don’t know. That’s up to some people that are outside my realm.”
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/11539/big-ten-coaches-discuss-expansion-issue
Amazing that outside of JoePa, the Ron Zook quote I posted earlier was probably the most substantive view that came from any of the other Big Ten coaches.
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Joe is not keen on ND…More and more, I find myself agreeing with him. While from a football rivalry and scheduling perspective and from a PR perspective, I’d love to have ND in the conference, bringing someone into the conference that is as committed is only going to lead to friction and division. Notre Dame of old may have been worth it since they were individually making more money that any other FB school, but the see-saw as tilted and ND no longer has that ace. Other than in-roads to the NY market, I don’t think that ND is essential like they once were.
After think over the past few weeks, I’d rather have Nebraska than ND if we only added one school.
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It’d be interesting to see (now that we know what vote it would take to approve a team’s expansion into the Big 10) how each school would vote on the given candidates. Would there be a split in the conference with the eastern schools (Penn St) wanting another team out east and the western schools (Iowa, Minnesota) wanting another team out west? This could be something interesting to look at. I am not familiar enough with Big Ten politics to speculate; but maybe some of you are. I only know the Nebraska connections at Wisconsin and Penn St…..but whether those connections mean anything or not is to be debated. How do you more ‘in the know’ speculate that each school will vote on each candidate?
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Herbie you make a good point. It was U of Ill. President Ikenberry (a former Penn State department head) who brought PSU into the Big 10. Graham Spanier would be a sure vote for NU, which he formerly led.
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In theory, the only way it could happen:
In a dark hole in the wall Bar in St. Louis….
Unknown Voice: Thanks for coming. Mr. S, Scotch and water?
Mr. S: Irish Whiskey, neat please.
Unknown Voice: Mr. P., what are you drinking?
Mr. P: Call me Bill.
Unknown Voice: Okay Bill, what’ll it be?
Bill: And by the way, I’m calling you Jim. This whole Mr. Letter of our Last Name thing is ridiculous.
Jim: Fine. Can I get you a drink?
Bill: I’ll have a beer. (Jim waves a waitress over and makes the order)
Jim: So, gentlemen, you all know why you’re here.
Mr. S: Uh, just for the record, I’m not officially here. I’m just here for the booze.
Jim: Yes, we know that Mr. S. (under his breath) Dumbass….
Mr. S: What was that?
Bill: Jim said that you’re all class, Jack.
Mr. S: DON’T SAY MY NAME!
Bill: JACK! JACK! JACK! JACK!
(There’s a commotion as Jack and Bill start to grab each other’s lapels. Jim separates and calms the two as the drinks arrive. Jack gulps his drink and immediately orders a double. Jim sips his vodka rocks as Bill takes a long pull on his draft)
Bill: All right, Jim. I’m going to put my cards on the table. We’re in if they’re in. (he nods to Jack).
Jack: I’m not here.
Jim: Shut up, (again – quietly) Dumbass….Okay. So, the state will let you make the move if A&M can come, right?
Bill: (nods) Yeah. We didn’t even have to push to hard with the legislature. They were on board with it based on the annual opportunity to pound on the two schools in front of us for all time wins. One in particular.
Jim: Michigan and present company?
Jack: I’M NOT HERE! (grabs the waitress and orders another double)
Bill: Yeah. (turns to Jack) So, what’s it going to be?
Jack: I’m in a difficult situation with a fan and alumni base that believes the college football world revolves around a golden dome in northern Indiana. We want – no, we NEED TO MAINTAIN OUR INDEPENDENCE and not tarnish ourselves in the football cesspool known as the Big 10.
Jim: But you make the decisions. You are the man in charge.
Jack: (gulping his drink) Who told you this? What makes you think I make decisions? Has he spoken to either of you? (Jim and Bill look at each other)
Jim: Has who spoken to us?
Jack: You know. (points up) “Him.” (Jim calls the waitress over and orders another Vodka and Beer)
Jack: And another double for me, thanks. (Tries to grab the waitress around the waist – she dodges the grab.)
Waitress: Is your friend okay? We don’t usually get big drinkers like that here.
Jim: He’s fine. Whiskey is like mother’s milk for him. (she walks away)
Bill: (Gives Jim a knowing look) You know, Jack. I actually did have a conversation with Him the other Sunday in Church.
Jack: (slurring) Are you serious, what did he tell you?
Bill: He said, “Join the Big 10. It’s the right thing to do.”
Jack: Seriously? Really? Oh, man! Wait till I tell Father! (Jack texts a quick note – there’s an immediate response.
Jack: Father says you’re full of shit…no offense.
(Bill and Jim stare at Jack for a few minutes. Jack quaffs another double. Bill swipes Jack’s blackberry and starts typing under the table. He hits send and slides the device back in front of Jack after Jack tries to squeeze the waitress’ ass and cop a feel on her boob. It buzzes about 5 seconds later.)
Jack: (after looking at his blackberry and turning a little pale) I’m in. I mean, we’re in.
Jim: (glances at Bill speaks to Jack) What changed your mind?
Jack: I just got a text from “Him”. He says it’s okay.
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MI: Brilliant. NBC could use you.
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Yes, but would they let me write game text for Tom Hammond?
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@MIRuss – Fantastic! Reminds me of this great conversation between Jim Delany and Iowa State (via Black Heart Gold Pants):
http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2010/2/17/1314948/iowa-state-gets-the-call-from-the
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Yes! – That was a classic!
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This amused me. You should write screen plays for a living. Wouldn’t surprise me if that’s exactly how those types do business.
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Hilarious.
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From a Penn State perspective NU (Spanier’s former school) + an Eastern partner would be the ideal ticket. Frank you may be on to something here!
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Part I – the ground rules…. and 16 #1
the more i read the more i feel a dynamic approach needs to be taken..
some points to consider…. the magic number is 12 or 16.. not 14
a) big means PUBLIC not PRIVATE
b) the Predators (B10,SEC,PAC10) vs Prey (B12,ACC,BE)
c) research = politics (turf means protecting dollars)
d) some share and some do not (my texas = jupiter argument)
e) the future value of MBB, WBB, and baseball
f) history should be considered in a big picture view
g) as things happen one would expect reactions
h) if you corner a wild dog, you get unexpected consequences
and the first “superconference” is the big 16..
the current 11 + ….
Nebraska = a + b + c + d (of the Big 4 in the Big 12, the equal share would probably appeal most to Nebraska) + e? + f (football a better fit in Big 10 vs Pac 10) + g? + h (Nebraska is no wild dog).
Maryland (my original thought [after UC] was Kentucky, but everybody else shot it down) = a + b + c (add congress / senate) + d (happy with an equal share) + e + f? + g (if ACC is prey, then this is a good east coast get) + h (edge of conference, easier to jump).
Missouri = a + b + c (more congress / senate votes) + d + e? + f (would be the second to adding Nebraska) + g (added to Nebraska, makes smoother transition) + h
I would add UK and WVU for the 4 extra senators, i know this will be shot down.. so I am not sure on the final 2.. but Uconn or Rutgers are some to look at.. what I would be willing to guess, is that the final 2 WILL be PUBLIC (preferrably flagship) and LARGE (preferrably 20 – 40 thousand undergraduates) with the ability to deliver a market without competition (UNC would not go without NC State or UVA would not go without Va Tech, so would not make the cut to go to the big 16).
I am making the note that all 3 of the surviving conferences has at least 1 current private member “grandfathered” in, (Northwestern, Vandy, and Stanford) but this imbalance in not likely to make future PRIVATE schools feel happy or safe.. the old “like follows like” argument..
i know a big part of Franks argument is research, which I agree with.. I am more inclined to look at schools that could “grow” as opposed to the easy “gets” today that might not be so easy.. as in i know Texas + A&M would = 16, but I just do not see it happening, because of the “share and share alike” in the Big 10.
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@Duffman: I think you lay out some decent “rules of war”, but the reason some of your schools get shot down is because you’re ignoring academics somewhat. I agree with you that some schools will need to be considered not on what they are but on what they could be — again, the example being that supposedly PSU agreed to up their research and academic profile when they joined (I have no idea if this is indeed true or not, but seems to be the accepted belief).
I see that with some schools we’re discussing — Missouri, Nebraska, UConn — I don’t see that with Cincinnati or WVU. Perhaps that’s the OSU alum bias in me talking, but I doubt you’ll see a school that’s Tier 3 end up on the short list. Moreover, from a practical standpoint, I can tell you OSU would probably do everything in its power to keep Cincy out just because it doesn’t want more competition in its backyard. Anyway, WVU is listed as Tier 3 in USNWR rankings, and isn’t part of the top 152 schools on the ARWU list. Kentucky’s listed on both, but I just don’t see them leaving the SEC. The SEC is in the same position of power as the Big Ten, and Kentucky is on the gravy train with biscuit wheels. Reaping the benefits of a strong football conference while being a big fish in a relatively small basketball pond.
I like Nebraska, but I’m viewing them as the backup to ND inevitably saying no or backing out at the last moment from alumni backlash. I only view Nebraska as a back up because I’ve bought into the assumption that the Big Ten really wants to make a move northeast, and in that scenario ND is probably worth more than Nebraska. That said, if the Big Ten decided in the end just to invite Nebraska and call it at 12 for now I’d be happy. The worst scenario at this point, imo, is to go through all the effort and public declarations and then announce they’re staying at 11.
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I am concentrating on 3 + 2
nebraska, maryland, and missouri + 2
i do not know the last two.. just suggesting 2.. but putting emphasis on the words LARGE and PUBLIC
as ND is neither, even tho i acknowledge WVU is a bad fit.. just trying to keep the PUBLIC and LARGE in the forefront.. and eliminate SMALL and PRIVATE from possible choices..
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Pitt is actually as public as PSU (state-related), though they may be rejected for other reasons.
I think Rutgers is as good as Maryland (and easier to get). I could live with Colorado, Nebraska, Mizzou, Maryland & Rutgers, though I don’t know how likely that is.
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Just because Texas doesn’t like sharing an equal amount of a medium sized pie in the Big 12, doesn’t mean they won’t share an equal amount of a huge pie in the Big 10.
There are a lot of reasons why Texas/aTm to the Big 10 doesn’t make sense. But your #1 reason (they don’t like to share) isn’t strong enough.
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allyou..
when i say “share” it is a combination of things..
$$, ego, etc.. texas = jupiter = ego
if this makes my thinking clearer….
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Why doesn’t the Big Ten just contract and go to 10 teams which IMO is the perfect number. I would kick out Indiana. Honestly what do they add to the conference? They have become a leach. Their basketball is done, the football never been. They offer no market and the school is more Southern than Midwestern.
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As much as it would cheer my extended family, IU will *never* be done in basketball. Football on the other hand…
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You don’t kick out family.
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Part II – 16 #2
the Pac 16.. the current 10 + ……
in addition to a) – h) i would add the value of pairs in the Pac 16
Texas + Texas A & M = a + b + c + d (the dealmaker – in that in the PAC 16 the texas schools can be JUPITER, while in the Big 16 they can not) + e (better minor sports fits baseball vs hockey, etc) + f (I think with weather, and the youth of the Pac 10 and Big 12 – they will feel more comfortable than the long term history that the SEC and Big 10 have in common). + g (texas can stay independent and not become a part of the collective) + h (texas is no wild dog, it is the 800 lb. gorilla)
Oklahoma + OK State = a + b + c (there is $$ in the state of Oklahoma, and they would not get the “academic inferiority complex” that the big 10 seems to rub in their face) + d (they will want a bigger share, while not jupiter – they are no mercury either!) + e (see texas and a&m) + f (with the SWC / Big 8 history.. it will make the texas schools feel more at home in the PAC 16) + g (with JerryWorld hosting USC annually, you could see texas politics in full force + h (with the texas 2 in place, no wild dogs here).
Colorado + Kansas = would round out the 16, with greater ease in finding acceptance in the Pac 16 over the Big 16. Brings more stability for the other Pac 16 adds.. and adds 4 more senators.. and these schools would have no problem playing second fiddle to Texas and USC. Kansas vs UCLA in basketball in a new PAC 16, just one of the match ups that would be tailored for TV.
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Sorry, OU and OKSt are deal-breakers. It’ll be hard enough to envision a scenario where the PAC10 can expand (unanimous vote for acceptance, remember?!?!). Weak academic schools like the two Ok schools would never fly in the historical climate of PAC10 decision=making.
Utah and Missouri would be feasible as 15 and 16, especially since they’d already be as far east as Kansas. OU and OkSt are better suited for the SEC (rabid fan bases, average academics, border state with Arkansas).
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part III – 16 # 3
or “how the south rises” and the new SEC – 16
in addition to the other items.. a) – h) + the value of pairs, I would add the value of southern history.. while some may find this crazy.. I feel any serious discussion merits inclusion..
# 1 the oldest conference is the SIAA (the big 10 is the oldest still in operation), this is not to say the SIAA disappeared.. It just became the SEC, ACC, and Big 12.. the point being the early member’s were Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, University of the South (Sewanee), Vanderbilt. Clemson, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Tulane, and Texas NOTE: No Duke, Wake Forrest, BC, Miami (the PRIVATES in the ACC), but Ga Tech, UNC, and Clemson are in!! this conference became..
#2 the SOUTHERN CONFERENCE – with membership of.. Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Washington & Lee, Florida, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tulane, and Vanderbilt NOTE: several STATE schools are added (UVA, Va Tech, USC) but the privates are still not there.. then comes the split in 1933 to form the SEC, and the second split in 1953 to form the ACC..
#3 the original SEC included Ga Tech and Tulane..
#4 the original ACC was Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Wake Forest, and Virginia. South Carolina has since moved to the SEC while the remaining five have short histories (Ga Tech, FSU, Miami, BC, and Va Tech)
so much for the history lesson.. but I am making a point, that if push comes to shove.. i find it quite easy to believe that multiple PUBLIC schools in the ACC could find themselves easily at home in a 16 team SEC.. and while the Big 10 may Pooh Pooh academics in the south, I can assure you that if you corner a dog, you can not predict the outcome.
It is also why I have no problem in seeing a SEC composed of southern state schools with a few caveats….
a) the best thing would be to jettison the bottom of the SEC, but it will not happen (see also Mississippi & Mississippi State).. but if it did you could have an SEC 16 that looks like this..
Current 10 + ….
UNC + NC State (pair 1) = a + b + c (southern voting block) + d (i have no sense here of a failure to share) + e (UNC vs UK in basketball, and a football rivalry that has HUGE upside compared to UNC vs Duke, with a 10,000 seat basketball facility and a 30,000 seat football stadium – this is a WIN WIN for UNC, as it adds HUGE “live seats & tv sets” while crippling its current rival in Duke.. UNC grows and Duke withers, I feel any UNC grad would think this a dream come true.) + f (hey having the old gang together would be like money in the bank) + g&h (see f)
UVA + Va Tech (pair 2) = sorta like UNC, but next step.. and makes state of virginia happy by keeping schools together. Not the same bang, but lie OK + OSU pair in Pac 16.. makes jump feel safer..
Ga Tech + Clemson (pair 3) = not a true pair but fills out state rivals in UGA vs Ga Tech and Clemson vs USC.. again.. these teams lock up the south.. give the other 4 ACC jumpers some “friends” in the new conference.. and LOCK UP the south for recruiting from outside the south.. while this may not mean much to the rest of the country.. i have a feeling in the south.. it would be a big plus..
b) of course.. if the Mississippi schools stay you must pick the best 4 of the 6 above, and work out a trade of USC for say FSU to hold down in state rivals.. while I agree the Big 10 model of picking 1 school in a market is the smart move, my guess that this would not play well in the SEC.. so maybe the SEC gives up USC (back to 11) but adds UNC, NC State, UVA, Va Tech, and FSU (for 16 total).
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The SEC already splits states (USC-Clemson, Georgia-GTech, Florida-FSU), so I think it plays perfectly fine in the SEC. In fact, the last time they expanded, they decided to enter non-SEC states (Arkansas and SC) instead of trying to “lock up” Georgia & Florida.
In any case, when the SEC does expand, VTech will definitely be a target. Then maybe WVa (though they may be too small & talentless), so likely 3 from FSU-Miami, Mizzou (if not taken by the Big10 yet) or the 2 Oklahoma schools. TAMU may like to join, but if UT has any pull in their legislature, they won’t allow them to.
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Richard.. have you been to SEC vs SEC football games in person?
Mizzou.. can not see them in the SEC
I think OU and OSU are a long shot, at least Texas was in the old southern conference (see above)
with Ark.. they got the Wal Mart and Tyson folks.. if you have not been to Fayetteville in a few years.. you are in for a shock.. Much $$ in the past few years, and you have to remember that Ark made the move to join the SEC
I wondered if USC, was a precursor to go after Clemson down the road..
Everybody assumes that the ACC will survive.. but to many private schools with small facilities.. look at seating in the Big 10 and SEC to compare.. If UNC jumped to the SEC, the ACC would go down the toilet.. ACC needs UNC, but UNC could get a better deal in the SEC..
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If UNC is willing to jump, they’d rather join the Big10 (with Duke, Virginia, and Maryland) than the SEC. VTech is a much more likely target.
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richard,
you are ignoring 3 points..
a) public vs private.. look at the numbers in my previous post for DUKE.. terrible!!
b) the pair theory (UNC + NC STATE) and (UVA + VA TECH)
c) the “history”
as Big 10 would not take all 4 in b) they go to the SEC 16, and MARYLAND as a “single” would go to the BIG 16..
ACC and SEC have a previous LONG term history .. so a greater comfort zone.. The ACC did not used to be part of the Big 10, but they have shared ties with the current SEC..
I am not trying to knock you down here, I am just looking at what I see with data to back it up.. I see no such data in your argument.. if you can show me how / why this would work.. please do..
In my first part of the post I put maryland in the Big 16 because..
a) LARGE, PUBLIC school
b) does not have a pair the Big 16 would have to take.
c) does not have the weak facilities that Duke has and small # of alumni (in my previous argument I pointed out that if they were starting from scratch.. Northwestern, Vandy, and Stanford would not be in the Big 10, sec, and pac 10 respectively).
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The pair theory has no credence since the SEC wasn’t interested in getting/creating pairs of schools in Georgia, Florida, or SC last time they expanded.
The history is over half a century ago, so I don’t think anyone in North Carolina cares that they were once in the same conference as Georgia and Tennessee. Any ties they had have been long gone.
As for my thought that Carolina will hold their nose at the SEC, that’s because I know Texas (which, like Carolina, has raised their academic profile substantially) has little interest in joining the SEC because they see it as a cesspool. Maybe Carolina feels differently, but I doubt it.
In any case, since Duke will have no interest in joining the SEC, and NCSU won’t get in the Big10, and I don’t see UNC abandoning either, the heart of the ACC will stay in the ACC.
Maryland may go, VTech may go, the Florida schools may go, but I just don’t see the North Carolina schools splitting up, regardless of whether they’re public or private.
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When the SEC added Arkansas, it was reported that they went to Florida State, and then to Miami, to try and get the 12th team. Florida was willing to allow them in at that time. Florida State didn’t go in because Bobby Bowden thought he would do better going to weaker competition in the ACC. Miami turned them down for similar reasons; they may have also been worried about not playing enough in the northeast. Of course, the SEC settled for South Carolina.
Now, with cable meaning it might be more profitable to get new states, the SEC might not still be interested in adding one of these schools, but it’s possible, given their national appeal. I wouldn’t see them both joining. I’m fairly confident they wouldn’t want to add a second school in any other state except Texas. No other state would bring enough people to make it worthwhile to have 2 schools.
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You lost it here, friend. Football rules the day, but destroying the bball tradition of the ACC is haphazardly aggressive.
The SEC only needs four, and with the Big 12 dissolved, the Big East up for grabs, and the ACC slightly weaker, the SEC can take their pickings.
Again, I think OU and OkSt would be perfect choices. From there, your guess is as good as mine. Maybe WVU or VTech in a northern push. Maybe Clemson, FSU, or Miami…ACC football powers. Maybe Missouri to enter the St. Louis market, if they are still available.
The ACC will remain in a 4 super-conference scenario. They will be the weak super-conference for football, but they will remain mostly intact.
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what basketball tradition!
until the ESPN deal in the late 70’s the basketball rivalry was IU vs UK! before said deal.. ACC basketball was UNC, and now it it primarily UNC and Duke.. With the new deal, ESPN has become dominant, they no longer need the ACC.. and their big DEAL is now with the SEC..
i see an ACC implosion much easier than a big 12, because they have little football value. and their basketball value it tied up in just 2 teams.. my guess is that in 10 years the basketball value will be in the SEC, Big 10, and some Basketball Conference outlined in part IV.
I went through an analysis of the southern schools for a reason, If the big 10 picked off Maryland.. and UNC / UVA bolted for the SEC.. the ACC would fold up.. if you are reading / posting to this blog, and over the age of say 40 / 50 .. the ACC basketball is a modern thing..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Coast_Conference#Facilities
look at the facilities.. the PRIVATE part of the ACC is a liability, and the PUBLIC side could grow in the SEC.. again, if you say the ACC will remain a POWER conference.. show me how.. as it would be easy prey for the Big 10 and SEC. If they took the top PUBLIC schools.. they might survive.. but not as a power conference just look at the old SoCo..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Conference#Membership_timeline
and where the SoCo is today.. same thing could easily happen to the ACC, as they are a conference not filled with Big PUBLIC schools like the Big 3 (B10,P10,SEC). i am willing to say there may be a flaw here.. but show me some data that backs it up..
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The ACC teams would be wise to consider their options now in light of where things may be in long term since the will be the weakest football conference. In terms of stability for the six major conferences it is:
1A) SEC
1B) Big Ten
3) Pac Ten
4) ACC
5) Big 12
6) Big East
If conferences shift to 14 or 16 teams, then the ACC is the most likely to lose teams other than the Big 12 or Big East. BC & Maryland would probably be the two targets for the Big Ten, but surely the SEC would consider FSU, Miami, VaTech, and Clemson.
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Though they’re limited in what they can do. They could make a play for the same Northeastern schools the Big10 would be interested in (Rutgers, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt), though if I was the Big10, I would take all of them besides Pitt. They could try for ND. Maybe Cincy. Otherwise, they’re limited to schools that are very weak academically (WVU), weak academically and in small cities (Louisville), or schools in states they already cover (ECU, USF, UCF). They’re not going to be able to take any SEC school.
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If the B10+ shuts outs the ACC from most of the BEast’s academically acceptable schools, they can still look west to schools like MO, KS, even Tulane, Rice, SMU, and IA St (in addition to Cin, which you mentioned.) If the SEC raids the ACC, they could also set up as an academic division of 8 and partner with a division of lower standard leftovers to create an Eastern Alliance.
It appears that the ACC could be boxed into a decision between being an academically ‘pure’ conference or making the substantial compromises likely required to get to 16 schools. 16 could be the minimum necessary to stay a BCS athletic top tier conference.
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The other decision the ACC probably has to make is whether they are willing to pay the price of having reduced average revenue per school if they go to 16. The ACC staying in the BCS top tier probably can’t pay for itself if the landscape shifts to a P16-B16-SEC16.
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Adding teams that are both far away and TV lightweights isn’t going to enhance the appeal of the ACC (and MO & KS have no reason to jump to the ACC unless they get left out by all the major conferences). The ACC isn’t going to expand and take less money per school just for the sake of expansion.
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I meant ACC schools individually not collectively. For the very reasons that you illustrate the ACC will not likely expand and if a team leaves they will be replacing it with a less attractive version. Thus, the ACC teams, specifically Maryland, should consider the benefits of leaving versus the advantages of staying.
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part IV – 16 #4
how 16 + 16 = 16 and other issues..
the last conference would actually be 2 conferences in a 16 / 8 format that meet each other in a regular conference championship to round out the 4 football team format for a play off.. we will call them A and B..
Conference A – the God & Country Conference..
it is 16 team basketball conference / 8 team football conference
say gtown, villanova, depaul,st. johns, st louis U, marquette, seton hall, and xavier in basketball
plus ND, BC, Army, Navy, UL (urban college in large catholic city), UC (urban college in large catholic city), Uconn, and Syracuse..
Conference B – the Privates + the leftovers
again a 16 team basketball conference / 8 team football conference
say 8 private basketball schools + 8 team football conference
when the BIG 16, PAC 16 and SEC 16 have their conference football championship.. Conference A would play Conference B for a representative…
this could be repeated to form additional conferences to insure that any serious team had a legitimate shot at a national championship.. sort of a sub playoff using the existing early “crappy” bowls.
More $$ for the NCAA.. everybody wins.. till it all breaks back into 8 team conferences..!!
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Not happening. I foresee 3 mega-conferences covering the North, South, & West, including every major state in the US except for NC. The ACC will be distinctly 4th in football (though still a powerhouse in basketball), but with a BCS bid.
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No, the ACC would simply snag the leftovers (pretty attractive leftovers from a bball standpoint, I might add!) from the Big East.
UConn, Syracuse, Louiville, Pitt, Rutgers, Cincy, WVU, USF…would certainly hold that conference together as a legitimate super-conference for football and might even make them the premiere basketball conference.
I’m not even worried about the bball only schools. Like you said, they can easily form a bball conference when the football fallout is finished.
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Well, I think most of the attractive schools in the Northeast will join the Big10 (UConn, ‘Cuse, Rutgers). The ACC would have to hold their nose at WVa’s academics to add them, (same with Louisville, and they’re in a small city). Also, unless FSU and Miami leave, there’s little incentive for them to add USF. They could add Cincy, though. Pitt as well if the Big10 doesn’t take them.
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I said before my ideal confernce would be a 14 team with ND, Neb, and SU. Now this might not happen. Lets talk about Nebraska. They can fit as at least a 12th member.
What you think is better? ND with Pitt and SU or ND with SU and RU.
Now inviting Rutgers and Syracuse wouldn’t destory the Big East as well as Syracuse and Pitt. I think ND with the choice of two is a tough call.
For my Pac 10 I think they go Colorado and Texas. Both universities are liberal enough, top in research, money boosters, viewers increase, and make the pac10 better in sports.
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If the Big 10 does go for the 16 team model, and can make it profitable due to their TV network, I would assume the SEC would follow suit.
First off, Texas and Texas A&M won’t be divided up…the legislature won’t allow it. Would it be great for UT to join the Big 10? Yes…would it hurt A&M, Baylor, Tech? Yes..and I’m going to take a wild guess, and say that UT alumns do not make up a majority of the legislature…or the Governorship (who is an A&M grad).
If the Big 10 does go to 16…and if the SEC or Pac-10 also goes to 16, UT and A&M would more likely go to the SEC. At this point, the implosion of the Big 12 will be on.
But….I don’t think 12 team conferences work, so I don’t think 16 will work either.
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A major complication in all of this expansion talk, that is interesting to me, is that Texas does not fit in any of what are pegged to become the ~4 major conferences.
ACC – too far, too weak in football, small schools
SEC – academics, academics, academics
P10 – distance and culture
B10 – distance and culture
Texas would be the outlier in any of those conferences. And unfortunately there is not enough between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi river to make a conference on those levels. The B12 was the last real attempt to make that happen. And now everyone thinks it could fall apart. Perhaps if Colorado athletics had not imploded over the last ten years it could have worked.
I miss the SWC 😦
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Regarding the “weak” ACC, I think the ACC could surprise a lot of people this fall. Miami has lost practically no one from an 8-4 team. FSU has added an outstanding new class of recruits. UNC supposedly has SEVEN upperclassmen NFL prospects on defense alone. VT will be a national title contender if it can survive Week 1 vs. Boise. Georgia Tech and Clemson ought to be strong, too. NC State, Wake Forest, and BC (as always) should be in the 6-6 to 8-4 range. Of course, Duke, Maryland, and Virginia will still suck.
But regarding a change in Texas’ conference affiliation: anyone who thinks the ACC could ever get the Horns is out of his mind.
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I think that Texas may be waiting and wanting to go to the Pac 10+ if and when the expansion takes place. If The Big 10 takes the valuable Big12 schools NU & KU and tacks in Missouri the Big 12 is set to collapse. Then Texas / Texas A&M / Oklahoma / Colorado / Oklahoma State and Utah would round out the Pac 16 nicely. Add AZ & AZ St to that and call it the eastern division which leaves the old PAC 8 alone. Create a Pac 16 network and you have LA, SF, Seatle, Dallas, Houston, Denver, San Diego, Pheonix, San Antonio, Austin, Portland, Sacramento, and Ok City all in your umbrella. Nice footprint to start your own network. Acedemic question about Oklahoma would be squashed by the $$$$ they generate, as long as Stanford would agree. I think Oklahoma would be a better academic school than ASU or WSU anyway.
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That’s why Texas would want to bring along all its favorite B12 pals in a merger with the Pac10 to form a Pac/Western 16/20.
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We talk about academics, “cultural fit”, geography. But the major emphasis on this blog seems to come down to television money via the BTN. Fair enough. But in discussing TV money, there’s another factor besides markets that seems under-considered. Ratings.
Let’s say the Big Ten gets Rutgers, Syracuse, and UConn and they really sew up the New York market.
Who’s going to watch?
Does anyone in New York (or anywhere else) really want to watch these teams play football? Do they watch now? If viewers wake up in 2012 and find these schools are in the Big Ten, will that suddenly spark intense interest for them to start watching? I don’t think so.
Even Syracuse alumni won’t want to tune in every week to see their team get pummeled by Michigan or Wisconsin. Nor will Rutgers or UConn alums care to tune in and watch their team crushed by Iowa one week, Penn State the next, Michigan State the week after that.
You could argue that these teams have the potential to become good. But there’s nothing to suggest they will.
Providing a weak product means you’re going to be putting another channel on the New York cable package, along with the 100-200 existing channels, and no one will be interested in watching. Viewers will just as soon tune in to watch the Roloffs or the Dog Whisperer, and then what have you gained? A tarnished image as a weaker sports conference.
If the Big Ten wants viewers, they have to bring in a school that plays good football. You bring in a Texas playing Ohio State, a Nebraska playing Penn State, and I’d wager there’s at least as many people in the New York area watching the game as there would be with Rutgers or Syracuse. Not to mention the additional viewership in Texas and the plains.
Athletically, the Big Ten brand needs to be about quality sports. Something to draw in viewers. You can’t go from Big Two, Little Eight to the Big Two, Little Twelve. Your sales pitch can’t be, “Hey, we’ve got a crappy product, but we’re in you’re area!”
From the perspective of current football strength, the best school choices are Texas, Nebraska, then Notre Dame.
Of these, the only sure “yes” would be Nebraska. I think they have to be part of the package, though the biggest prize is still Texas.
I don’t think the Big Ten can afford to go east and leave these schools for the SEC to pick up.
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Scott, You make a valid point. You do want to add attractive teams, strong programs, get some competitive games. But the question that needs asking is this. Would a Syracuse, let’s say, fan be more LIKELY to tune into Syracuse vs. Wisconsin or Syracuse vs. UConn? Syracuse vs. Ohio State or Syracuse vs South Florida? If you polled a hundred thousand ‘Cuse fans, I’m certain that more would tune into a ‘Cuse Big 10 schedule than a ‘Cuse Big East schedule. The second factor is this: after the ‘Cuse noon game is on, would a ‘Cuse fan tune into a Wisconsin-Indiana game if it were on basic cable through the Big 10 network? Some weeks, maybe.
You’re totally right though. Some big football hitters need to be on board for this to work. A Nebraska and Notre Dame might balance out a Syracuse and Rutgers…but a four northeastern school addition would be a HUGE drag.
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I’ll let someone from Syracuse answer the question of who they’d rather watch and whether joining the Big Ten would make them more likely to watch. I haven’t a clue.
However, there are 230,000 living alumni of Syracuse. Rutgers has 380,000 living alumni. UConn has 150,000. That’s a total of 760,000 alumni. A sizeable number, but a fraction of the New York / New Jersey / Connecticut population the Big Ten is trying to draw.
So even if these teams draw a good audience of their alumni, the larger question is what do the people in upstate New York, in New Jersey, in Connecticut, and in the city who did NOT attend Syracuse, Rutgers or UConn want to watch? A weak Syracuse, Rutgers, or UConn team playing a Big Ten foe? Or a strong Texas or Nebraska squad against that same Big Ten opponent?
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BTW, as I now live in Canada, whenever I hear the name UConn, I can’t help but think of the Yukon. Even the UConn mascot–the Huskies–smacks of the Canadian north. Certainly not the greater NYC area.
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Scott: Your premise is based upon these teams from the BE are weak and basically suck. And that they will oontinue to suck and get pummelled week in and week out in the Big Ten. As a result no one will watch. You might be right, if they suck then their fans won’t watch. I for one don’t think they are going to come in and get waxed. OSU and PSU will beat them, the mid tier of Wisconsin, Iowa, MSU, and Mich will be 50/50, the bottom tier of Ill, Ind, Purdue, NW, Minn they will win more than they lose. Syracuse has sucked but are improving fast. UConn and Rutgers are good and getting better as well. These 3 you can expect to be in the middle of the Pack most years. I would say that is true for Pitt as well. I watch these teams alot. I also watch the Big Ten as much as I can. I don’t see a significant gap between the mid tier BT and these 4 BE expansion candidates. The fact is they don’t suck.
As for mascots, come on. Just as “The Orangemen”, “Scarlet Knights, “Huskies” don’t immediately conjur up images of NY Metro, neither do the “Gophers”, “Spartans”, and whatever NW’s mascot is conjur up enduring images of the Big Ten from those outside their fanbases as well.
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While FB gets higher ratings, BBall would provide a lot more programming to the network and has to be taken into consideration.
As to Upstate NY interest in Syracuse, just about all of the schools home fans are non alumni. Most SU students are from NE cities and after graduating go get jobs in NE cities. When SU gets a full house in FB or BBall it is 99% locals.
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This isn’t over-the-air. This is cable. Ratings and advertising aren’t the issue, it’s subscriber fees. If a channel makes it onto basic cable, the channel gets paid by every subscriber regardless if anyone watches it under the current system.
If we go to an a la carte system, then all bets are off.
Yet another reason to keep ND out of it.
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I’m no TV exec, but if a channel gets excellent ratings, they can bargain for higher pay outs per subscriber, no? If so, ratings matter.
Likewise, if no one watches, could they not be booted off basic cable?
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Also, viewership affects rates you get for ads. So again, ratings matter.
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If (and this is a big if) the Pac-10 and Big Ten both happen to expand by 3 or more, and it all happens too fast for the BE and B12 to start plugging and replacing, then some type of alliance between the remaining Big 12 and Big East schools ought to be in store.
Let’s say on the Big Ten side, Rutgers is cut out of the Big East, Nebraska from the Big 12, and Notre Dame from independence. On the Pac-10 side, UT, A&M, and Colorado are plucked from the Big 12, plus Utah from the Mountain West.
Once they catch their breath, I’d bet that OU & co. would strongly desire affiliations with already-BCS schools. Lo and behold, there are seven such programs which suddenly need new affiliations themselves. As geographically awkward as it would be, I believe whichever Big 12 schools are left out from Big Ten/Pac-10 raids will be better off, business-wise, with names like West Virginia, Syracuse, and Pitt than with New Mexico, Houston or Colorado State. Big East football schools would share that view, I’m sure, when they compare that option with additions like Memphis, UCF, or ECU.
So with 8 remaining Big 12 schools and 7 remaining Big East schools, one more program would be needed to round things out at 16. TCU and BYU would be the obvious, excellent options. I think TCU would get the nod, if for no other reason than to keep the league within two time zones.
Even if the ACC snatched Syracuse & Pitt, that new B12/BE league would still be capable of competing strongly with the nation’s other leagues.
Maybe after all this, Boise State would join the MWC alongside BYU, and that league might salvage an automatic BCS bid. Oddly enough, that would mean there would STILL be six BCS conferences, but only four others
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Thanks for the input!
So votes for Nebraska I’d have to think are:
For: Iowa, Penn St, Wisconsin, Minnesota (possibly, there was some bad blood here because of an 83-0 thrashing in the 80’s; but that may be water under the bridge)
Questionable: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Indiana, Purdue
Against: Illinois (possibly holding out for Missouri, the border rival) Northwestern (possibly for academic reasons?)
How about Rutgers?
For: Penn St, Northwestern
Questionable: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota
Against: Illinois (for Missouri?), Iowa (distance, wanting NU border rival?), Wisconsin (Alvarez NU alum?)
Syracuse?
For: Penn St
Questionable: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota
Against: Illinois (for Missouri?), Iowa (distance, wanting NU border rival?), Wisconsin (Alvarez NU alum?), Northwestern
Missouri:
For: Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern
Questionable: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota
Against: Wisconsin, Penn St (if western team is added will probably vote for NU)
With my limited knowledge of Big 10 politics, this is the best I could come up with on how the voting may actually go. It’d be interesting to see how the Michigan and Indiana schools vote; geographically they are in the middle of the conference and will not be effected as far as the conference adding a border rival to them; so as far as I can see they could vote either way.
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First, Alvarez doesn’t get to decide for Wisconsin.
Second, I think most schools would vote, first, for whoever fits academically–and second, who brings in the most money.
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Agree with Scott.
As a Northwestern fan, I wouldn’t care for Mizzou. Our demographics (both students and alums) skew heavily towards the East Coast; definitely much more so than towards the Big12 North (which makes sense, as there’re many more people there).
I’d like Nebraska because of their travelling fans and, growing up in the Midwest, Nebraska & Oklahoma are more “name” programs than schools like Georgia & LSU (or any school on the East Coast besides PSU).
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Mike R,
Thanks for the input!
So votes for Nebraska I’d have to think are:
For: Iowa, Penn St, Wisconsin, Minnesota (possibly, there was some bad blood here because of an 83-0 thrashing in the 80’s; but that may be water under the bridge)
Questionable: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Indiana, Purdue
Against: Illinois (possibly holding out for Missouri, the border rival) Northwestern (possibly for academic reasons?)
How about Rutgers?
For: Penn St, Northwestern
Questionable: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota
Against: Illinois (for Missouri?), Iowa (distance, wanting NU border rival?), Wisconsin (Alvarez NU alum?)
Syracuse?
For: Penn St
Questionable: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota
Against: Illinois (for Missouri?), Iowa (distance, wanting NU border rival?), Wisconsin (Alvarez NU alum?), Northwestern
Missouri:
For: Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern
Questionable: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota
Against: Wisconsin, Penn St (if western team is added will probably vote for NU)
With my limited knowledge of Big 10 politics, this is the best I could come up with on how the voting may actually go. It’d be interesting to see how the Michigan and Indiana schools vote; geographically they are in the middle of the conference and will not be effected as far as the conference adding a border rival to them; so as far as I can see they could vote either way.
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Herbie,
I’m not sure of Penn State’s attitude toward/ties with Missouri. The school does not have a history of playing the Tigers in any sport.
I do know that PSU’s preference would be for RU, SU or Pitt. Spanier, as I’ve said, would surely support Nebraska.
I read Paterno’s comments on Rittenberg’s blog and they make it clear that Penn State will likely be cool toward the application of any non-AAU school (read: ND), maybe even a “no” vote. I think one of the unexamined issues is whether the addition of Notre Dame would be divisive within the Big 10, even though offers have been extended on at least two occasions.
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adding…
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One of the (many) things I like about this blog is that Frank has done a real good job of laying out objective criteria for schools the Big Ten might pick and then discussing their true merits as potential conference members. It sets a very intelligent basis for the debate.
The downside to this approach is that it tends to ignore the overall social context in which the Big Ten actually has to operate. If you pick off one school like Nebraska out of the Big 12, you’ve angered 11 other institutions that have all sorts of ways to retaliate. Maybe they slow down your inter-library loans or don’t nominate a president of one of your member institutions as administrator of the year or Big Ten professors visiting Kansas State have to dine on hot dogs instead of steak (if they are invited at all). I don’t know…
Now let’s say you instead decide to take on Notre Dame, Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn and Pitt. In that case you’ve angered four other institutions, Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia and South Florida, that were part of the (now defunct) Big East. I guess you could argue the ACC might be a little offended too, but given how the ACC itself has treated the Big East in the past, that would be ridiculous. The risk/reward of getting four new eastern schools and angering four other schools sounds to me a lot better than getting one new school and angering eleven others. Especially if one of those eleven is Texas (“Don’t mess with Texas” is sort of an informal state motto down here and might prove good advice in this case).
My point is that Nebraska may be a better institution than any of the northeastern schools (Syr, Rut, UConn, Pitt) to add to the Big Ten by objective merit criteria, but still not be a good idea to add in real life.
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@Ron – Interesting point there, Ron. I guess the counter to that would be that I doubt that the Big Ten would care about “retaliation” from anyone other than possibly Texas in the Big XII. At the end of the day, schools like Kansas and Missouri (much less the much lower-ranked schools in the Big XII) aren’t going to refuse to partner with institutions like Michigan or Northwestern on academic matters. Are Texas and Texas A&M seriously going to choose to do more engineering research with Kansas State as opposed to Illinois and Purdue? I simply doubt that would happen.
Here are my 2 hangups with taking 4 BE schools:
(1) If every single Big Ten school is making more TV money on its own today than the ENTIRE Big East football contract, how realistic is it to think that 4 of those BE schools (plus ND) would add $110 million per year to the conference (which would be a 50% increase to what the Big Ten makes now)? It probably isn’t.
(2) I’ve been the champion of the “Think like a university president and not like a sports fan” mantra, but that doesn’t mean that university presidents are so myopic that they’ll only parse through research expenditure figures and forget that the #1 revenue driver in all of this is still football. On that front, adding the 4 BE schools even with ND is going to water down the overall football product when looking at fan base figures such as national TV ratings and attendance compared to the current Big Ten averages. Switch one of those BE schools out for Nebraska, though, and the strength of the overall football product increases compared to what the Big Ten is today. Assuming that Nebraska meets the academic requirements of the Big Ten (and as I’ve said before, if Missouri meets them, then there’s no good reason why Nebraska wouldn’t), then it would be VERY hard for me to watch the Big Ten pass up that type of program which seems to be willing to move (and is geographically contiguous and Midwestern for the conference’s traditionalists, to boot) in favor of 4 BE schools. A 16-school Big Ten isn’t looking at markets, anymore – I think it’s to position the Big Ten to be as close to a national conference as you can get.
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@Ron – Now, the “retaliation” that the Big Ten may need to take into account is that if it destroys the Big East and, say, leaves UCONN behind to wither in a non-BCS conference, are the influential politicians from that state at the federal level going to brand the Big Ten as Public Enemy #1 and push some very negative legislative and legal maneuvers aimed at the conference specifically and the BCS in general? That’s the type of thing that the Big Ten would likely be more concerned about as opposed to being blackballed by academic institutions (which I just don’t think would ever happen with the Big Ten’s research strength).
On the other hand, this concern would seem to support the notion that it’s not in the best interests of the Big Ten to completely destroy another conference – current BCS schools getting downgraded to non-AQ status would be a political nightmare. The Big Ten would take the cream of the crop from 1, 2 or even 3 conferences (if ACC schools could be targets), but not all from one place.
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If a Big Ten expansion really did include Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn and Pitt, it would actually take the most politically potent areas of the country currently served by the Big East and move them to a conference that would serve them a lot better. Am not convinced the alums of West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida are going to be a particularly strong political force to punish the Big Ten for this. My guess is you’ll have a few more anti-BCS politicians hanging out with (Utah Senator) Orrin Hatch on some of those goofy interviews he gives about college football, with little more substantive effect than we see now from the current complaints of the Mountain West. Don’t get me wrong, I like Hatch, but the political grandstanding is aimed at the home crowd back in Utah…
Pretty much accept your appraisal of the current Big East as a football conference (terrible), but think you’d see an exponential growth in interest and money for all these schools. (The Dallas Cowboys as an Eastern Division team in the NFC visit that area of the country all the time and don’t seem to have trouble getting a reaction).
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This should be a non-issue. The Big-12 schools could stop research with the Big-10 but there are plenty of other schools that will be just as happy to pick up the slack. The only conference that this would matter for is the Pac-10 due to the Rose Bowl and other conference connections with the Big10.
As Frank said, you want the cream of the crop not just the easiest targets or the least likely to ruffle feathers. If Texas joined the Big Ten would you care about the other 11 schools that you irritated…not a bit. Nebraska isn’t Texas in that regard, but still they make it totally worthwhile
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Frank,
Could you see a scenario where schools like IU/PU/Minny/NW ban together to vote in favor of a 12th school for the championship game revenue but against a 14 or 16 team super conference because it drastically lessens the chance they will ever get back to the Rose Bowl?
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@JRT: The only scenario where I could see that is if we were looking at a situation where an abundance of football powers were invited, ie. Nebraska, Texas, *and* ND. More likely, however, would be a combination of schools where competition might be slightly tougher but not killer, ie. Nebraska, Rutgers, and Syracuse.
I think you bring up a great point however, one that’s probably somewhat lost in all of this. You can’t introduce only sharks into the Big Ten tank; you need some middle tier and bottom feeders as well. Those 2nd and 3rd tier schools, however, will need to bring something else to the table to make their inclusion worthwhile, such as basketball (Syracuse) or markets (Rutgers) or maybe research (Pitt). As football fans an all-shark tank sounds terrific, but from a business perspective I’m unsure it’s the best method. And, as you said, I would have a hard time believing current tier 2/3 members would be thrilled.
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@Manifesto – I agree with this. The conference does need some balance – if there are too many alpha dogs, then those national powers will turn into middle-tier schools after a decade of 7-5 seasons where they beat up on each other. In a 3-team expansion, I think that 1 massive national football name is necessary. In a 4-team expansion, I think that 2 massive national football names plus 3 solid “second tier” schools that bring something else to the league would be optimal.
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This is a great point, and not JUST from the conference point of view. It’s important from the schools point of view as well. A school won’t want to join a conference to become one of the also-ran, middle tier schools that ends up having too many loses and fans and alumni lose interest and quit caring (buying tickets, donating money).
No one wants to be the next “Arkansas”. The schools could end up losing more money then they gain. IN fact, Arkansas no longer wants to be Arkansas, and they have let it be known, they would rather join Texas in the Big 12 if they could.
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@Redhawk – where have you heard Arkansas wants to be part of the Big 12? Some fans maybe, but the SEC has been very good for Arkansas and they don’t want to leave according to everything I’ve heard. Plus Arkansas would be competing with Oklahoma St and Texas Tech for third place behind UT and OU in the Big 12 South. How is that any different than looking up at LSU and Alabama in the SEC west?
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@Mike – I agree. Any complaints from Arkansas are completely fan-based (similar to some old school Penn State fans wishing they were in the Big East). There is no doubt that the people that actually run Arkansas thank their lucky stars that they ended up in the SEC every single day. The Big XII is a poorly run conference that’s at great risk of being picked off by both the Big Ten and Pac-10, whereas the SEC has turned itself into a juggernaut that is going to be immune no matter what happens in conference realignment. Why on Earth would Arkansas leave a strong conference for a complete clusterf**k? Plus, Arkansas is exactly the type of school that NEEDS the equal revenue distribution of the SEC. The Razorbacks aren’t a national power in either football or basketball that would benefit from the Big XII’s unequal revenue distribution – they’d end up in the same boat as schools like Missouri that are openly lobbying to get out of the Big XII. The chances of Arkansas leaving for the Big XII are about as likely as Penn State joining the current Big East – maybe some fans would like it, but those schools’ leaders would consider such moves to be financial suicide.
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There is only an infinitesimal slice of the PSU fanbase — that would prefer to be in the Big East. Once in a while you hear someone say we’d have an easier path to the NCG as a Big East member. But every group close to the school knows that Penn State’s reputation has only been enhanced by its association with the Big 10.
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I’m not so sure it’s “entirely fan based”. I’m an Alum from Okla. U. (and Col. St). A few years ago, Arkansas played a home and away with Texas. The desire to leave the SEC or more accurately to join Texas in a conference was very much present. It made the papers.
First off, the greatest flow of income a University has is NOT tv money. It’s ticket sales, and the add on cash of donor seats. It’s a fact that the performance of the football team also directly affects the academic donations as well, at least it does in Oklahoma.
If the fans are upset/disappointed that they don’t buy tickets or if the football team has enough losses on the field, donations WILL go down. The SEC is a juggernaut, but it also eats it’s young. Arkansas, doesn’t see it’s self beating out the traditional powers. They see themselves as being locked into that 2nd tier, and there is some despondency. The fans want some thing to be excited about.
OU was rumored to be joining the SEC at one point. I can tell you our fans are relieved that didn’t happen and they always mention Arkansas, as why. OU made more money in the long run, because they are winning. Joining a super conference, and being the winner, becomes harder to do. Make wins harder and losses more and fans will not be as excited. Fans not being excited, means less money in ticket sales and donations.
Now what President is happy to have less ticket sales, and less donations? TV money doesn’t cover that up in all cases.
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@Redhawk – Oklahoma is a clear nationally dominant program – I can see some downside with its fans if it were to become a middle-of-the-pack SEC school. However, I don’t see how Arkansas would be anything more than a 2nd-tier team in the Big XII, either. It’s a classic “grass is greener” mentality if Arkansas fans seriously think this way. Are Arkansas ticket sales actually hurting when Alabama, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, etc. are coming into town, especially considering that the Big XII anyone from the Big XII North other than Nebraska is fairly ho-hum on the interest scale? Do Arkansas fans seriously think they’d do any better record-wise getting slotted with the old SWC rivals that they care about in the Big XII South? Regardless, if Arkansas leaders have any clue, they shouldn’t ever count on being aligned with Texas because they’re probably going to end up in the Pac-10 or Big Ten eventually (neither of which would consider Arkansas in a gazillion years). Arky would be best served cashing in its checks in the stability of the SEC because they might not have gotten into that conference in today’s TV climate and would be screwed if they were in today’s Big XII that’s teetering on collapsing. This is why every single Big East school would trade better opportunities for a BCS bid in a weaker conference for the stability of the Big Ten within two seconds of an invite.
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Amen brother
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I have been reading through some documents from the cable trades on Tier 1 and Tier 2 carry rates, advertising, and the Big Ten Network. Depending on the will of the conference in regard to 14 or 16 teams, we are looking at 3 or 5 adds.
I am QUICKLY becoming convinced that the additions will include Rutgers, Syracuse, and Nebraska if it is 3 teams. Rutgers, Syracuse, Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas if it is 5 teams. This based on footprint, cable carry rates, advertising, ratings, and the previously discussed acedemic and financial requirements.
The key is getting the NYC market on Tier 1 cable… basically talking about $31,000,000 per year from carry rates alone.
I’m still working on some things, there is a lot of scattered information, but I don’t see any need for Notre Dame at all? I don’t know if the inclusion of ND is nostalgic or if it is because of previous invites, but other than a small ratings boost for some of the games that fall to the BTN, I don’t see it. They add NO new tv markets, they are smack in the middle of the footprint. They are a national draw, but not enough to raise the demand in Denver to bump the whole BTN up to Tier 1. They are still in a contract with NBC, and the big name games they would have would fall to the regular networks anyway. They add almost nothing on the research side, they have a very small graduate program, and they don’t seem to fit culturally.
Texas is far and away the WOW school. After Texas there are some really good additions RU and SU strictly on acedemics and the hope of getting Tier 1 in NYC, NU & KU on athletic revenue, new markets, expanded footprint that make sense…. MU a little more borderline but fits here.
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Disclaimer – I work in the television industry.
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patrick..
if those are the views for the BIG 16.. what teams would be best from a PAC 16 and a SEC 16 (assuming the Big 12 and ACC get cannibalized).
thanks!!
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From a tv perspective I haven’t looked up numbers or specifics for the PAC+ or the SEC+, but it would not suprise me to see Texas / Texas A&M / Oklahoma / Okie St. / Colorado / Utah for the PAC+. Adds lots of strong tv markets and Texas would still financially dominate.
As far as the SEC goes… I haven’t even considered them in expansion. They are locked in to a lucrative deal with ESPN, and they went that route instead of developing their own network. Any expansion by the SEC would then split the pie into more slices, reducing each teams take. I would be suprised if the SEC expands.
ACC / Big East would likely merge and go to the 16 strongest teams while trying to control the eastern seaboard. Seriously though, I have not done any assessment of the ACC / SEC, the PAC 10 tv numbers were more residual information from trying to get an idea of what the BIG 10+ will try to do.
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patrick,
that last comment went up and did not attach as a reply to you.. my point was would such a MAJOR shift open up the SEC contract..
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duffman,
I doubt that would impact the SEC contract, however as the laywers will tell you…. every contract is written to be broken. LOL
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Re financial considerations (Patrick)
Interesting post. Can you expand on comparative specifics for schools you cited, SU, RU, Nebraska, including knowns and unknowns?
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@Patrick – Fantastic info. On a percentage basis, how much does revenue comes in from advertising compared to carry rates for the Big Ten Network (or peer cable networks)? That would seem indicate how much weight should be given to a marquee name with a small home market (i.e. Nebraska) that draws large national ratings versus a school with a large home market that draws lower national ratings (i.e. Rutgers).
As for the value of Notre Dame, my feeling is that they would aid greatly in getting the BTN on Tier 1 cable in the NYC market specifically (if not outright ensure that happens). I know that I’ve seen polls of New Yorkers that indicate ND as being the favorite college football team in that market.
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@ FRANK – That is the MILLION dollar question. Simple answer is it depends and changes all the time. It depends on ratings, market, and the strength of the sales staff.
That said… I am trying to bust up some numbers that I will pass along to you when I finish.
I would say that the GAS (Give A Sh##) level of the fan base will make a difference in rates because that will allow the BTN to push the cable providers for higher rates. If there are few college football fans in NYC and they are not beating down the cable company door, BTN carry rates will go down. On the flip side, in Nebraska try having the cable company tell the fanbase that they couldn’t reach an agreement, that would carry a big premium.
Same type of answer with the advertising rates versus the carry rates. Ad rates will be based on ratings and actual viewers. Out of NYC’s roughly 5,040,000 cable subscribers they pull a rating of 1.2 for a Rutgers v. Nebraska game. That is equivalant to 60,480 households. Same Rutgers v. Nebraska game in Nebraska markets and their roughly 1,050,000 cable subsribers gets a 45.0 rating is roughly 472,500 households. The commercials in Nebraska would sell for roughly 7 times what the commercials in NYC would. (Maybe not that much because consumers in NYC are used to paying more.)
So far the highest rated program ever on the BTN had a 2.2 rating. For some mild perspective I saw that Nebraska was near the top of Pay-Per-View buys with an average of 40,000 buys per game at $29.95 per game.
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Addendum, I think the BTN would sell on a national basis meaning that you would see the same commercials in NYC as in Nebraska so all you want is total households. So over the whole network you would need to average those numbers.
So the shear volume of fans in Nebraska could actually raise the commercial rate in New York if it is sold nationally. If there are 25,000,000 households in the BTN you would just take the total viewers (60,400 + 472,500)532,900 and divide that by the 25,000,000 available households. That would put you at a 2.1 rating, assuming nobody outside of Nebraska and NYC watched. Obviously, you will get viewers from all over especially with a fan base like Nebraska, which would increase sales rates network wide even if the households are 1/5 or 1/6 of what NYC has.
You want NYC for the carry rates and Nebraska for the advertising rates.
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@Patrick
Thanks for the analysis on advertising rates. This really falls into line with Frank’s view that the Big Ten should try to lock down the NYC area and then add a team like Nebraska for the national appeal.
If the Big Ten took Syracuse and Rutgers, about how much more money in advertising they get if they took Nebraska.
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Just wondering what exactly is the reasoning behind Kansas?
I mean for example a school like UConn has roughly the same academic standing, research funding, undergrad/grad student enrollment numbers, stadium seating (admittedly Kansas’ is probably more well attended though only 10k bigger), has the same record in the past four bowl games attended (3-1) and since 2002 (when UConn started playing with the big boys) has roughly the same winning percentage (.523 for Kansas vs .5 for UConn…per the online sources I was able to Google).
Meanwhile UConn bball is, imo, equal to Kansas (what’s more its in the bball centric tri-state NYC area) Connecticut’s populations is ~1 million more, and (if the Big 10 takes Rutgers/Syracuse) there’s only one other (that I know of) Div I-A school in New England (which means the Big10 has a legit shot of at least competing with the ACC for all New England viewer-ship) a continuously growing regional area.
Anyway, I don’t really have a dog in the UConn fight (PSU alum myself), but I just don’t see why Kansas is an “automatic” in.
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I don’t really care between UConn and Kansas, but the tv markets are the roughly the same (Hartford vs. Kansas City & Wichita). Kansas athletic dept. before conference handouts made $62 million…. UConn made $54 million. Kansas has been a Division 1 school for over 100 years while UConn football is relatively new… only 62 wins at the D1 level. Also Kansas has been an AAU school since around 1900 while UConn is not an AAU school. I would think that the Big 10 would lean towards the tradition, and the plus is Kansas actually already makes more money.
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patrick..
i was asking between Kansas and UTAH!
and how would Maryland look in the expanded big 16
sorry if i was not more clear..
thanks
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Someone else asked about UConn and Kansas. Maryland is a good question.
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@duffman
I believe Patrick was answering PSUGuy’s post where he was talking about UConn and Kansas.
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@duffman – I just haven’t looked at Utah much, I would suspect Kansas would be a stronger canidate but I am not sure. I’ll add some schools later from a PAC 10 perspective.
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@Patrick – UCONN is definitely an interesting one. I think that you’re on the mark with the youth of the football program being a sticking point with the Big Ten. Otherwise, their basketball program is excellent and it locks down the Tri-State area. Still, Kansas is really at the very top tier of basketball programs alongside Duke/UNC/Kentucky.
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Fair enough. I just get hesitant sometimes when I start to think about which “2nd tier” schools would be added since I think they’ll really be what “defines” the future of the Big10.
Will it be more of a mid-western conference? Mid-Atlantic? “The Conference of the North”? None of the above? Think you get my drift.
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I don’t think Kansas is an automatic in or even anything more than a longshot, but Kansas does have AAU membership and UConn doesn’t. I’m not sure that UConn does have the same academic standing than Kansas.
UConn does have a hockey team though. That would be nice.
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Academic Standing UConn v. Kansas
AAU ARWU USN GSR APR%tile Research $
UConn No 71 66 82 60th $215mil
Kansas Yes 91 96 58 50th $131mil
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Academic Standing UConn v. Kansas
UConn:
AAU: no
ARWU : 71
USNews: 66
GSR: 82
APR: 60th
Research: $215 mil
Kansas:
AAU: yes
ARWU: 91
USNews: 96
GSR: 58
APR: 50th
Research: $131
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Well, the s***s going to hit the fan soon, with the Big 10 Pres meeting in June. How about some predictions as to likely (not preferred) outcomes(for the “1st round” expansion only):
15% — Do nothing –Not likely, but with so many possible scenerios on the table, and the necessity for 8 votes, they might say more time is needed to decide….
11% — Nebraska only — My preference is to add Neb. and await developments. Might be a compromise solution to break a deadlock. A big advantage is that it makes the East?West divsion split a lot more viable. Don’t think people are going into the meetings seeing this as a likely option, given press reports that Neb. was not one of the 5 schools most intensely studied….
11% — Rutgers only — The Big 10’s been looking at Rutgers for 15 years. If press reports are to be believed, the independent study rated RU as more valuable than Mo, Pitt, Syr. 2 big drawbacks are that it makes East?West division split unlikely, but the “this is it?” ridicule factor…
11% — Pitt only — Pitt is a great fit, and the academics/research + Pitt v. PSU rivalry may be too much to ignore. $ concerns are lessoned by ability to have a championship game.
6% — Missouri only — Mo apparently rated high and is an all around great fit….however, the “eastern partner” and “pressure on ND” angles favor Pitt,as do academics/research, plus adding Mo instead of Neb makes East/West divisions less viable.
2% — Add ND only — Not likely..ND’s not ready to jump, esp. by itself…
10% — Add 2 teams and await developments — Not likely due to ridicule factor of having 13 teams, but the Big 10 might say “what the heck” as they’ve done it before….if it happens I think it would be RU and Pitt, or RU and Neb.
10% — ND plus 2 –would have to be 2 eastern teams, most likely RU and Pitt..
6% — ND plus 4 — 3 eastern teams plus Mo/Neb…I think it’s too radical for the Big 10…
10% — 3 w/o ND — Has advantage of “finality” while keeping alive the prospect of ND at a later date..would almost have to include Neb. to avoid dilution of football brand.
3% — 5 w/o ND — unlikely
5% — Add 4, w/o ND — Another “force ND’s hand” scenerio…seems unlikely…can’t see this happening w/o Neb. being involved…would probably be RU, Pitt, Syr (boo), Neb….biggest problem is it results in 15 teams.
—————————
Seems like the chance of Tx being involved in this first round is very low…however, Tx AD did make some general comment to the effect that ‘there’s going to be a lot of discussion’ in the next few months…so I’d put the odds of Tx being involved at 3%…
Let’s hear your #s…..
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The only decision I could see being made in June would be this–Nebraska and Rutgers join the Big 10 in 2015. Otherwise, I think we won’t hear of anything until Jan of 2011 about Big 10 plans.
Why Nebraska and Rutgers?
a–Great additions…one for football/brand appeal and one for TV potential/location/alumni.
b–expansion would clearly NOT be done. The Big 10 would remain the “talk of the town” for another year.
c–The Big 12 and Big East (and thus, Notre Dame) would be sent scrambling. Options for further expansion would be wide open in the Big 12. A Texas annex? A Colorado/Kansas flavor? On the Big East side, Syracuse would still be available. Maryland and BC could be explored if the Big 12 scenarios flop.
d–Notre Dame would have six more months to convince fans. While I don’t know if you’ll ever get 100% support or 100% excitement, enough sentiment will be in place for ND to make the jump. Finally, goodness gracious.
By February of 2011, I still think this is what we’ll have. Nebraska and Rutgers (added in June 2010)…Notre Dame, Texas, and aTm.
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I think I’m actually starting to prefer Nebrasda, Rutgers, Syracuse, Texas and aTM. With the Texas schools, would the Big Ten really NEED ND and the headaches?
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good points…the question would be rather they’d rather have a degree of finality or have the discussuion go on and on and on……
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I think if ND isn’t added, any teams will join in 2 years. The minute any school announces it is leaving it’s conference for another, it becomes awkward to stay around, and everyone wants to get it done as quickly as possible. Also, since you’re mostly shuffling one set of conference games with another, it’s easier for schools to arrange.
If Notre Dame is added, the expansion might take longer. As an independent, it has 12 contracts per year, so it will likely want to play out as many as possible rather than buying out all of them. Also, there isn’t the awkwardness involved with members of a current conference.
If ND + several teams are joining, it will be interesting if they try and stagger the invites.
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0% — Do nothing –
0% — One only.
12.5% — ND plus 2 –East/West split. most likely RU/SU, Neb
12.5% –3 w/o ND — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Neb
37.5% — ND plus 4 — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Pitt plus Neb/Mo
37.5% — 5 w/o ND — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Pitt, Neb, Mo
—————————
Multi phase in I don’t see happening
Texas, Texas A&M I just don’t see happening
Colorado, Kansas, BC, Maryland, UConn I don’t see happening
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Since the blog is back to its BFE placement habits, I’ll quote Rick’s post that I’m responding to (hopefully the italics tags will work right, always a crapshoot without a preview option.)
============================
0% — Do nothing –
0% — One only.
12.5% — ND plus 2 –East/West split. most likely RU/SU, Neb
12.5% –3 w/o ND — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Neb
37.5% — ND plus 4 — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Pitt plus Neb/Mo
37.5% — 5 w/o ND — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Pitt, Neb, Mo
—————————
Multi phase in I don’t see happening
Texas, Texas A&M I just don’t see happening
Colorado, Kansas, BC, Maryland, UConn I don’t see happening
======================
That’s pretty much how I see it, though MD might get in instead of Pitt or MO. Adding 5 is most likely, but the presidents might scale that back to just 3 or 2 and a multi-stage approach.
Won’t even try to give percentages, because the East Anglia method would be the only way to do so…
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@Rick:
I agree that I don’t see Texas/A&M, or Colorado, Kansas. Highly unlikely to see Maryland or BC. I doubt Missouri will get an invitation. I think UConn or Pitt, if either get an invite, will be a competition between media aggression and tradition.
I think it’s more likely to see a 5 without ND than a 5 with them. Ultimately alumni/fan pressure will be enough to keep ND independent. 45% versus 30% maybe, but assigning percentages feels kind of arbitrary anyway.
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Revised 4/18:
0% — Do nothing –
0% — One only.
1% — ND plus 2 –East/West split. most likely RU/SU, Neb
4% –3 w/o ND — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Neb
20% — ND plus 4 — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Pitt, Mo
70% — 5 w/o ND — East/West split. most likely RU, SU, Pitt, Neb, Mo
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@Rick,
UConn is a terrific school. I have the research $’s at KU $187 million – UConn $215 million. My research numbers included KU’s medical school.
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Patrick: my mistake for not including KU medical. I show them as $131 + $65 medical (2006 American Research University data); UConn $109 + $106 medical.
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I don’t want U Conn, but I’d take them all day and twice on Sunday over Syracuse. I can’t believe how overrated Syracuse is as an expansion candidate on this blog.
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@mushroomgod – From an athletic perspective, I just don’t see how they’re overrated compared to the Eastern candidates. Is it a private school that’s smaller than the publics we’re looking at? Sure. However, even if Syracuse football hasn’t been very good lately, it’s a true national basketball name (not on the UNC/Duke/Kentucky/Kansas tier, but right below it) that has the ability to draw 30,000 people for hoops, which is the best fan devotion for any of the Big Ten’s BE candidates. It’s the only BCS school in a state of 20 million people. It has ties to the NYC market and even stronger in the not-talked-about Upstate New York area (which has a population that’s the size of Missouri or Maryland). If TV revenue is important in this decision (and it will be), then Syracuse is simply a very attractive school if not outright necessary to lock up the NY/NJ region. A multi-school expansion practically mandates that the Big Ten adds the households in NY and NJ. I just don’t see how the size of the school (as it’s a very large private school – 14,000 undergrads compared to Pitt’s 17,000 undergrads) or academics (since it’s an AAU member) will be issues for the Big Ten. We’ll just have to agree to disagree on Syracuse.
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From a financial sense…. Syracuse is an absolute slam dunk if they can bring the NYC cable market with them. If they can, there is no need for Rutgers. Maybe you need both schools to take the NYC market…. and if that is the case, the financial winfall of getting NYC is divided between two schools and it would put those two canidates (RU & SU) back in the pack behind Nebraska and right near BC & Maryland.
If Syracuse can’t drive the NYC market to tier 1 cable rates… they fall rapidly to near the bottom of the list from a BTN perspective.
BTN is on Dirtectv and Dish… and is carried on the cable systems in NYC and all of New Jersey. The issue isn’t to get ON cable there it is to get bumped up to tier 1. Around 80% total penetration for approx. 7.2 million HH. 30% is Satellite, 50% is cable. Pulling around 18 cents per subscriber per month on tier 2 but BTN gets about 70 cents per on tier one. Roughly a $22,000,000 carry increase.
@Frank – you had asked about the ad revenue vs. carry rate revenue for cable, in a previous post. It typically runs about 50/50 but it can be anywhere from 25/75 to 75/25 depending on the channel. BTN is going to be VERY STRONG in home markets during football season. Most of the ad dollars will be tied directly to how passionate the fan base is. Cable carry might work that way also. If there isn’t much demand from the subscribers for BTN to be on tier 1 in NYC, then the cable company will just leave it on tier 2 and let the people that want it pay extra for tier 2. They probably make more that way, the catch is if you start losing subscribers to other cable outlets or satelitte because you don’t have BTN on tier 1 and they do. Then it is the cable companies doing the math…. how many regulars are we going to lose for adding BTN and raising rates vs. how many do we lose by not adding BTN? Overall, I’m not sure RU or SU could either or both get the BTN bumped up to tier 1, I think NYC may be more of a pro sports town and the YES network may have already taken the BTN networks slot there.
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Hi Patrick,
Thanks for the analysis.
If you need 3 of RU, SU, UConn, or ND to get NYC (with the first 3 bringing in their respective regions as well), would it be worth it to take 3 of those schools?
So Nebraska’s at the head of the pack. I assume if you need 3 schools to put the BTN on tier1 in the tri-state (NY/NJ/CT) Maryland & Mizzou would follow Nebraska. Is that correct?
Where is Pitt in all this? They actually drew decent ratings on ABC (their games on ABC outdrew the ND games on NBC last year and were about the same as Nebraska’s ABC games), though wouldn’t bring many new subscribers.
I doubt any one of RU, SU, UConn, or ND would put the BTN on tier1 throughout all of metropolitan NY. Two of them may or may not do it.
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@Patrick – Excellent stuff! Now, does the calculation change for Syracuse if it can guarantee bringing in at least Upstate New York (around 6 million people)? That seems to be part of the attraction for me – I feel like Syracuse can be counted on to at least deliver that portion of the state while simultaneously providing inroads into NYC. If Syracuse and Rutgers can bring in their entire states up to tier 1 (not just the NYC area), is it worth it to add both? I guess there’s also a long-term perspective on this – if the Big Ten is going to focus on the Northern half of the US, then the NY/NJ area is really the main place that’s still adding population in large quantities.
On the flip side, I’m really interested to see how Pitt could increase revenue at all. The academically-minded people in the Big Ten likely love Pitt (with good reason), but my general feeling is that if you aren’t going to add more households (or in the case of Nebraska, a very small market), then you really need to be a marquee national name that can both increase carry rates and ad rates in the homes that already have the BTN. ND and Nebraska can do that, but I simply don’t see how Pitt does. Maybe this ultimately doesn’t matter to the Big Ten presidents that really like Pitt’s research abilities (although I’m 99.9999% certain that they aren’t going to give up a single penny of their current athletic payouts regardless of academic research strength).
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People writing off Pitt as a Big 10 expansion candidate should go to the Pitt Scout forum. There’s a post there, pinned to the top, for”visitors to this site”. Take a good look at that post and get back to me……
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If anyone goes to that site, also look at the second post under that thread–it has all the #s.
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Or follow this link:
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=141&f=2455&t=5547158
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@mushroomgod – Oh, I wouldn’t write them off at all. As I’ve stated elsewhere, if Pitt could trade locations with either Syracuse or Rutgers, there wouldn’t be a debate – they would’ve been invited to the Big Ten many years ago. They are solid athletically and academically. If there is a multi-school expansion, the Big Ten presidents may ultimately decide that it can’t just leave Pitt sitting there. The question, though, is whether they’d increase revenue on the athletic side. Pitt definitely doesn’t work out financially as a single-school addition. Any multiple-school expansion is going to have effectively absorb the cost of adding Pitt if the Big Ten is hell-bent on adding them – the other schools added are going to have to make up $22 million in revenue that Pitt simply won’t add to the coffers. This is why a multi-school expansion that includes Pitt truly does have to lock down the states of NY and NJ, which means to me that you can’t really leave out Syracuse, even if you can’t stand it 😉 NY and NJ are effectively required in order for the Big Ten to “afford” Pitt.
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@Mushroom:
Link to the thread in question: http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=141&f=2455&t=5547158 (love the architecture photos)
I don’t think anyone’s necessarily writing off Pitt as an expansion candidate, nor are there really many (if any) against Pitt joining. Basically almost everything about Pitt is great, except their location. And no matter what we may think about it, footprint expansion is going to matter. The great debate is exactly how much. If Syracuse gets the invite over them, clearly footprint was a huge factor. The aggressive timing and nature of the Big Ten announcing makes people think BTN’s footprint is going to matter a lot.
As a side note, you sure you don’t have some axe to grind with Syracuse? I noticed you petitioning Pitt posters to come over here and advocate for Pitt over Syracuse in that thread.
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As it’s lunchtime, I especially enjoyed the pictures of the food at the bottom of the page.
Personally, I’d be very pleased to add Pitt if it could be worked out financially.
As for encouraging people to come here and lobby for Pitt, it’s great to have more input from others, but it’s not like anyone here has a vote on who is invited to join.
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@Scott S: Adding more Pitt fans to the discussion is great, but unless they can provide some kind of new information it’ll just seem like preaching to the choir. Everyone here seems “for” Pitt. However no one seems to have an answer for their biggest obstacle.
Unfortunately we’re stuck in a situation where there are no slam dunks. But how many of these could be three-pointers?
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I agree that there are no slam dunks…I think the Big 10 should be really careful about adding lots of schools with “issues” that might have 1 or 2 really strong points–Syracuse for basketball, Nebraska for football, Rutgers for ratings—if the overall Big 10 “brand” is degraded.
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@mushroomgod – Completely agree about the overall “Big Ten brand”. There’s going to be a balance – you don’t want to completely destroy the items that make you strong. If ND and Syracuse are added, does that dilute the graduate research strength of the conference? If Missouri and Nebraska are added, does that dilute the undergraduate perception of the conference (which we haven’t talked about much here) as they would clearly be the 2 lowest rated schools? If multiple Northeastern schools are added, are we getting too focused on TV markets and forgetting about that a huge strength of the Big Ten is that our sports fans generally show up and travel to games (like Nebraska)? There are going to be lots of different things to weigh here.
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I’ve always thought you add Neb OR Missouri for the reason you mention. And if you add either of them you almost need RU and Pitt to balance it out….both of them are very solid academically….given Pitt’s research #s and endowment, I think it’s US News rating seems rather low…
I have this feeling that Nebraskans are so proud of the state/school that if they were added they’d make a big effort to catch up to MSU/Iowa/IU…whether that’s possible given their population, I don’t know….
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FYI –
Nebraska Research $324,000,000
Iowa Research $334,000,000
Mich St. Research $333,000,000
Indiana Research $124,000,000
Missouri Research $220,000,000
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Regarding needing BC to get the Boston market, BC hasn’t been that successful at that so far. But consider that a decent percentage of Boston area kids end up at B10+ schools and Conn, Pitt, Syr, ND, Rut, and MD. A much larger number of graduates from those schools end up taking jobs in Boston. Even though the northeast is dotted with non-BCS schools and thus greatly diluted, I wonder if the number of Boston area alums and fans of the entire total of B16 schools approaches (or even surpasses?) the number of alums and fans of BC?
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Someone from Neb. had a good post under an earlier story about how Neb. has dramitically increased the research component over the last 10-15 years……..
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No axe to grind. Now if Keith Smart had missed that shot and IU had lost to them it would be a different matter…..
No, I just feel very strongly that it would be a huge, long-term mistake to add a small private school not named ND. And I won’t even argue that Pitt is perfect for the Big 10. The enrollment is smaller than I’d like, there are questions about the width of the fan base,the minor sports must be improved, and I’d prefer an on-campus stadium. That being said, the more I’ve seen and read about Pitt, the more I like it….1) academic rating 2)research $s 3)medical school 4) location between OSU and PSU 5)seems to be in a nice city, in a nice neighborhood, right next to a 500 acre park 6) gorgeous limestone architecture 7)”Cathedral of Learning”–awesome 8)ready-made rivalry with PSU 9)great football history, claiming 9 NCs–now I understand most were pre-1960, but Pitt has almost always been at least serviceable in football–Marino, Greene, and Dorsett 10)presently, a really good bball program (future?)
I’m not unreasonable about this…I think Pitt and Missouri are far and away the best fits for the Big 10, but my choice for a 1 team addition would be Nebraska, then Rutgers…Nebraska so that the East?West divisions would make sense…Rutgers for TV revenues…
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Re calculating TV market and rates (Patrick)
No doubt the Big 10 Presidents have talked to the key cable and TV networks.
Making calculations can be tricky:
Focusing on SU for example: the last several years SU has been at the bottom of its football program.
The new AD, with support of the new Chancellor, came from USC and has instituted major facility improvements, increases in coaching salaries including assistant coaches (as have all the Big East teams) and hired former SU alumni and New Orleans Saints OC Doug Marrone to replace his prior disasterous late season selection of Gregg Robinson. Marrone has changed the culture big time (as has Strong at Louisville and Holtz at USF).
So things are not really static, and again I’m sure the Big 10 will be evaluating SU’s potential as well as its “nadir”. The same applies to RU who only made a major comittment to becoming competitive in football in the last few years. Uconn also is is new to BCS level football and has made major investments and strides. So whats past is not necessarily the present or future.
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@Frank,
I calculated Syracuse straight with just the Upstate NY markets and Syracuse with both the NYC market and the Upstate. Syracuse with only the upstate NY market is below Maryland and Boston College. I am hoping to send you my stuff soon so you can see it, but I have some more data to try to pull on cable advertising rates. The Nebraska markets (Omaha, Lincoln, etc.) and the Syracuse markets (Syracuse, Rochester, Albany, etc.) are almost a wash. I don’t have my spreadsheet in front of me right now. Footprint is going to be a big deal! They need to increase the pie for the BTN to increase the payouts to the current members, even with a bump in ratings from Pitt, I don’t think it would be enough.
Also, if it takes SU & RU to get the NYC market that bumps them down to the range of BC and Maryland. BC & Maryland bring 3 big markets that are roughly equal to the total for NYC & the upstate NY markets.
Unless ND delivers the NYC market or helps, it doesn’t look like a slam dunk for ND. Pitt, while a terrific school would not be financially viable as an addition from the tv side.
@c,
I sure hope that the BTN execs have asked the NYC cable operators what it would take to get to tier 1. Then they need to make the decisions on what combination makes sense for them. When I did calculations for Syracuse I did include more than the last few years but the football fan support is just not as strong lately and that is a factor. That said, traditionally strong programs tend to remain strong (ND, OSU, Nebr., Texas, Okla.) and the tendency to remain top flight programs gives the BTN execs. a little more comfort.
Just so everyone is aware, basketball means VERY LITTLE in this deal from a tv perspective. Look at the current Big 10 deals. In television payouts from the traditional networks the Big 10 gets $102,000,000 per year. The football contract is $100,000,000 the remaining $2 Mil is basketball. Football is literally 50X more valuable.
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Patrick: when calculating the RU/SU numbers are you including NJ with 9 mil population in the NYC market? NJ (9 mil)/NY Upstate (7 mil) is 16 mil, with the 12 of NYC it’s 28 mil. Just trying to get my head around these numbers you’re talking about.
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@Rick – I am using television households and cable penetration. Northern NJ is in the NYC market. NYC is about 7.3 million households (don’t have my sheet on me right now). A good rule of thumb is HH times around 2.5 is close to population.
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Patrick: Thanks. The confusing part for most of us laypeople is looking at state populations vs TV markets and viewing HH’s. 35-40% of the 9 million NJ state population is not in the NY TV market. Central and South Jersey is 3-4 million folks. Some of those are down in the Philly TV market numbers I’m sure. How the 28 million of NJ (9 mil), NY Upstate (7 mil), and NYC (12 mil) is broken up in to TV Market HH’s, advertising, cable rates, tiers, and such is where it gets dicey for us outside the industry to get good numbers to understand. I’m sure the BT has the market experts digging through this. Thank you for your insights, very helpful. If you could clarify how the 9 million NJ population, 7 mil upstate, and the 12 mil NYC will be accounted for that would be great. This is really important for us to understand.
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12 million for NYC metro is counted as about 7.3 million households, and includes Northern NJ. Philadelphia market mainly has BTN on Tier 2 o that will need to be accounted for. Upstate markets would need some math but they are Roch, Syr, Alb, Buf, and Utica. From a tv perspective you need a approximation of cable households. Population can be a decent starting block though, not everyone has cable. General estimates are about 50% cable… about 30% on Sat. and 20% use antenna. This varies across the country.
Say for NJ alone. 9 million people. About 30% already get Big Ten Network through Satellite and 20% will never get BTN because they refuse to pay for cable. So cut that number in 1/2 to 4.5 million people. 4.5 million people is about 1.5 to 1.8 million households, that’s a pretty strong number. Think about your house, one bill…. two parents and two kids. One bill – 4 people. Average is around 2.5 to 3.
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Great thanks. very helpful.
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@Patrick
I have all of the the TVHH data per markets if you need any help. Upstate NY markets above the mid-Hudson region total 2.7 million TVHHs – all of those DMAs presently receive Time Warner Cable Sports Network which prime feature is SU sports except for the Albany-Schenectady-Troy DMA.
Time Warner Cable Sports Net actually got started in upstate New York when SU left the Empire Sports Net (owned by Adelphia) for Time Warner and it is the featured sports team of the network.
The percentage of TVHHs subscribers using either ADS or Cable is now 91.3% – 29.8% ADS/61.5% Cable but in the majority of northeastern markets it is usually less than 20% ADS/ 70%+ using Cable as can be seen in the following link:
http://www.tvb.org/rcentral/mediatrendstrack/tvbasics/13_ADS-Local.asp
Hope this info helps.
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@omnicarrier,
The tvb list is very helpful for finding cable penetration. I got 2,211,250 household for Upstate NY though using Nielsen data here http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/2009-2010-dma-ranks.pdf
I got Syr, Roc, Buf, Albany, Utica, and Binghampton counted as adds for Syracuse.
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[unfortunately this is likely a double post since it didn’t wind up anywhere near the message it is in reply to]
@Patrick – “I got Syr, Roc, Buf, Albany, Utica, and Binghampton counted as adds for Syracuse.”
Add Plattsburgh NY/Burlington VT, Watertown, and Elmira. SU brings all three DMAs to Big East network.
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Patrick,
Though that number’s a little misleading, since the Big10’s football contract with ESPN lets them pick essentially the best 50% of the Big10 football games played, while CBS gets one basketball game a week (out of something like 10 a week). Really, that CBS basketball contract isn’t for money, but just so they can have Big10 basketball maintain a token presence on network TV. To compare another conference, the ACC gets almost as much money from their basketball TV contracts as from their football TV contract.
Seeing that ad rates on the BTN seems to be whats really bringing in the money, basketball may factor in more than we thought.
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@Richard,
Growing up in football country we tend to forget that there are any other sports. You have an absolutely valid point, and I looked at Athletic Department revenues… not just football, since the whole athletic department would be on BTN.
Interesting stuff on that report though, trivia type stuff. Only 2 schools on the report had their BBall program make more than football. Duke & Louisville.
10 Most valuable Baseball programs – LSU, Texas, Vanderbilt, USC, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Miami, Nebraska, Miss St. & Rice.
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Patrick, so which scenerio looks to be more rewarding for the Big 10. Adding Neb, Mizzou, & Kansas along with ND & one of either Syacuse or Rutgers; or adding Neb, Mizzou, ND, along with both Syracuse and Rutgers?
I think if I was the Big 10, I’d prefer to add Kansas than to add both Syracuse & Rutgers. I’m still not sold, that even with Syracuse, Rutgers and ND, that you could spark enough interest in the NYC market to push the BTN to tier 1. I’m a lot more sure that a much larger population in Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and surrounding states like the Dakotas and maybe even the eastern part of Colorado would have a high interest in the BTN. Plus, I think Mizzou and Kansas would have a bigger national appeal (this is coming from and SEC outsider) when it comes to the area of advertising sales.
What are your thoughts on how these two scenerios compare?
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@ Bamatab,
Simply, I could see both. It will come down to what the actual exact numbers are (which the BTN is never going to give anyone). Maybe they go Syracuse, Maryland, ND… or Rutgers, Maryland, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. It will depend on the values of the BT presidents and how the dollars play out.
Personally I beleive they expand by either 3 or 5. I think Texas tells them no, or they know what the answer will be and don’t ask. At 3 I think it is Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Missouri. I am not sure that they will EVER get off tier two in NYC. The cable giants have BTN available, so as a network you just want to increase the subscribers. That means QUALITY games, not only for NYC but nationwide.
If they go 5 teams I think they go Nebraska, Notre Dame, Missouri, Syracuse, and Kansas.
I have thought lately if you add Nebraska and Notre Dame that combination will instantly convert some of your available houses to subscribers… matbe as many as 3-5,000,000 nationwide. An attractive combination to be sure.
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Thanks Patrick. I wonder if expansion to 14/16 is still going to happen if ND says “no”? Maybe not; maybe just add Nebraska and wait and see.
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Good stuff Patrick: a few questions:
1) With a 5 team (with ND) add why Kansas and not Rutgers?
2) With a 3 team (with ND) add why pass on NY Market?
2) I personally think ND will buckle under to alums independent crying, their football team will bounce back this year and be good again, and they will roll the dice and stay independent. That being said, what are your 3 and 5 team thoughts without ND?
3) As for Pitt, how can they fit?
With both your 3 and 5 team adds with Notre Dame, it seems that the door is left open for the ACC to really strengthen and potentially lock up the DC to Boston markets for football and with Pitt and UConn for basketball as well. In your 3 and 5 team adds without ND it will be interesting to see if you still would leave DC to Boston to the ACC by bypassing the NY market as well.
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Actually, their football team doing well may actually undermine the position of the pro-independence crowd. Even without expanding, any current SEC or Big12 champion that has the same number of losses as ND will almost certainly be picked for the national title game over ND, and it’s no sure thing that ND would get the nod over the Big10 or Pac10 champion with the same record either. Once the Big10 and Pac10 supersize, the only way ND can play for a national title while still staying independent will be by having at least 1 less loss than 2 of the 3 champions of the SEC, Big10 and P/W16/18/20.
If ND goes 11-1 this year, yet still gets passed over for the national title game in favor of 1 or 2 other teams with the same number of losses, recruits will see that, the administration will see that, and even their rabidly pro-independence fans will see that.
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Richard: great point for those looking at it from a rational and logical perspective. For the ND administration, that is something they must consider very, very heavily versus the extreme backlash they will receive from alums and the impact on giving. As Rich2 points out, worst case there might be less backlash from an ACC move. Slightly less. And if the Big Ten leaves the NY market door open by only taking SU then the ACC is in a perfect position to add ND, Pitt, UConn, and Rutgers and become a very relevant Super Conference.
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@ Rick,
I was making those examples with the thought that the NYC cable market will NOT move the BTN up to tier 1 regardless of schools. If the BTN is already available in NYC on Satelitte and tier 2 cable, maybe they cable giants just leave it there.
My 3 or 5 team thoughts without ND would be absolutely dependant on NYC and which schools or combinations of schools carrry NYC. Difficult to say…. maybe Nebraska and Notre Dame have enough national name to carry NYC. Maybe NYC never moves up to tier 1.
As for leaving DC / Boston to the ACC, I’m not sure I would do that. Maryland seems to be one of the stronger canidates mentioned from a tv perspective and Boston College isn’t far behind Maryland. I could see the Big 10 taking Maryland, financially it seems to work. If the NYC cable market is completely removed from the discussion, it would be Texas – Nebraska – Maryland – Notre Dame – Boston College – Kansas – Missouri….. but obviously the NYC cable market MUST be considered. All by itself, independent of schools, the NYC cable market would bump the conference revenue about $35-$40,000,000
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One more thought. Suppose ND passes on the Big Ten. Instead eyes the ACC and strikes a favorable financial deal, the BT passes of the NY market by only taking SU only, doesn’t that leave the ACC to add ND, Pitt, RU, and UConn and dominate the DC to Boston corridor? I guess it will come down to whether the BT wants to really hit hard the NY Market or not. I think if they are really aggressive, making a strong play for Maryland, SU, RU, Nebraska, and either Missouri/Pitt is their strongest move without ND. Without ND or MD, the BT will be exposed in the NE by only choosing SU. The biggest variable, I guess, is the direction of ND. Unfortunately. So to me, the bottom line is what is the strongest move for the BT without ND because I just don’t think they are going to come around and join the Big Ten. The ACC maybe as a wildcard but I think they stay put as an independent.
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The ACC won’t catch up to the Big 10 by adding the NY markets. If it would, the ACC and Big East contracts would be worth more than they are.
If the Big 10 adds those schools, they will be trying to use the Big 10 football brand to raise the value of those schools over time. They’re also counting on NY tv ratings being driven by fans of current Big 10 schools in NY as well as fans of the schools they will be added.
Even if the Big 10 does nothing and the ACC adds a bunch of those schools, the ACC won’t be passing the Big 10 in value on a per school basis anytime soon.
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The issue for the ACC is to remain a relevant player as one of the conferences left standing as a Super Conference and growing their revenue payouts. Catching up to or passing the Big Ten in value on a per school basis is not the issue. Not being raided and decimated by the SEC or Big Ten is, and the future financial stability and growth of their TV deals is at stake if they don’t do something. As it is they are coming up on a contract renewal negotiation and it does not look good for any decent increases for them. Strengthening their football and enhancing their basketball brand will go a long way to boost their future contract.
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I wasn’t saying the ACC shouldn’t expand.
Despite where it ended up being placed, I was responding to someone who said the Big 10 had to take the Big East schools because if they didn’t the ACC would and that would somehow hurt the Big 10. Several other posters have also implied this.
If the Big 10 decides not to expand or to expand elsewhere, it’s OK if the ACC gets those schools. It doesn’t mean the Big 10 will get passed up by the ACC. That’s all I was saying.
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I respect ACC (a lot), but… If the ACC were to get Notre Dame plus at least three of the four northeastern schools currently in the Big East (Pitt, Syr, Rut, UConn), I think it would be very well positioned to limit Big Ten growth long term and compete with the Big Ten in many respects (academically, athletically, etc.). As a Big Ten partisan, I DO NOT think that’s okay.
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Ron: I agree. I think it would be a strategic mistake to forsake the NE and leave it open for the ACC to secure the markets long term. As a Rutgers partisan, I like the fit of the Big Ten equally as well as that of the ACC for RU aside from the money benefits of the Big Ten. I don’t think the ACC is going to sit at 12. These are smart folks down at the ACC and they are reading the tea leaves like everyone else. While the BC addition probably has not worked out exactly like they intended, they must realize now that connecting the dots between Boston and DC with the NY market is the next move that will finally fulfill their initial goals and intentions. The movements of the Big Ten and Pac 10 will begin the seismic change and if I were them I would pre-empt the SEC from raiding their ranks and solidify their position for the future by going to 16 and link their conference from Miami to Boston and out to Pittsburgh.
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While I understand the “forsaking the NE” argument in terms of TV eyeballs, if the “NE” schools such as Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt, or even UConn were really that valuable in that regard, why isn’t the Big East getting huge television contracts and a lot of TV exposure now? The more I look at it, “raiding the Big East” seems more like moving into a black hole or going after a red herring rather than plucking ripe fruit. What I think people are missing in the TV equation is name recognition, which schools like Notre Dame and Nebraska bring. Syracuse and Pitt bring the name on a secondary level as far as football and possibly on a primary level as far as basketball; frankly I don’t think Rutgers registers on most casual fans’ radars.
The ACC could enhance their basketball value by adding Pitt and Syracuse, but neither school is a huge force in the coveted NY market, to my knowledge. Maybe ‘cuse for basketball, but not football.
Here’s an interesting article:
http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/04/big-ten-reps-to-talk-expansion-in-dc-on-sunday.html
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Remember B10 expansion is about academic fit including research, expanding the market/footprint, and football as the primary athletic money maker
IMO the 15 schools evaluated by B10:
From the Big East: Rutgers, Syracuse ,Pitt, UConn
ACC: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Miami
SEC: Vanderbilt, Florida
B12: Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado, TAM
Texas and ND are slam dunks, so no evaluation necessary
If 3 are added to make 14, top choices are: Tex, TAM, ND (superpowers with seismic effect on national collegiate landscape)
Next choices IMO opinion, are Nebraska (national football draw), Rutgers and Syracuse (NY/NJ market, followed by Maryland (DC/Baltimore market)
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Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt and UConn bring enormous market potential, but they’re currently part of a conference that is hard to take seriously on the national (or even local) scale in football. Combined with Notre Dame and brought into the Big Ten, that entire equation could change drastically. No one is in a position to change their football histories to match Notre Dame and Nebraska. On the other hand, all four schools appear ready and willing to try to improve their football programs going forward, particularly with Big Ten Network dollars flowing in. I see the northeastern schools of the Big East as being much more valuable to the Big Ten than to the ACC in the near term since the Big Ten is much better situated financially (and as a football name brand) to leverage their potential as football markets. There are risks and I don’t think the Big Ten should take on these schools right now without also persuading Notre Dame to join at the same time. I think it is worthwhile for the Big Ten to wait on further expansion until it can get a deal done that does include Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn, Pitt and Notre Dame. Notre Dame’s continuing reluctance to do a deal in both its interest and the Big Ten’s interest is disappointing. Still, the sun comes up tomorrow either way, right?
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Completely agree, Lion.
With Delaney saying nothing and next to no leaks surfacing, we really have no structure to work with – the slates entirely clean, and, as a result, I think we are losing focus. I think we are carried away a bit by the raw numbers or possibilities of expansion.
When we´re talking about Eastern expansion, I think we have to be careful. Sure, the Big 10 Network could be picked up by cable companies throughout the DC-Boston-NYC corridor and it would increase revenue. But at what cost and by how much? Would people in DC really tune in to watch Wisconsin-Purdue or Iowa-Minnesota? Would someone in Illinois really care about BC-Maryland or Rutgers-Pitt? I´m not sure they would, and I think the reason is culture.
The Big 10 has been and still is a Midwestern conference with a culture entirely distinct from the ACC, SEC, Big East or Pac 10. Expand east and I´m afraid you create a super-conference that´s missing an identity – similar to what happened to the Big 8. If that happens, what type of ratings does the Big 10 Network see? Would we not be much better served to fan the flame by adding Mizzou, Nebraska and Kansas?
When it comes to culture, I think the Big 10 is very similar to the Big 12 North. If you poach Mizzou, Nebraska and Kansas, you add three historically strong sports programs and increase the national profile of the conference, while still maintaining its identity. In the process, you have created a conference that stretches across the heart of the country, and a television network that is must-see-tv within that territory, if not throughout the entire country.
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BTN is More Than Sports:
The Big Ten Network plans to air a live broadcast of President Barack Obama’s speech at the University of Michigan’s May 1 commencement ceremony.
Coverage of the commencement ceremony will begin at 10:30 a.m. that Saturday and will also be streamed live on http://www.BigTenNetwork.com.
http://www.crainsdetroit.com/section/c?template=profile&uid=166885&plckPersonaPage=BlogViewPost&plckUserId=166885&plckPostId=Blog%3a166885Post%3a07c4527b-a5b0-4adf-9fac-c636d2c54ce1&plckController=PersonaBlog&plckScript=personaScript&plckElementId=personaDest
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Mike,
Great point about the Midwestern culture of the B10. I think Mizzou, Nebraska and Kansas would be a great fit, along with Notre Dame and Pitt. That would create my dream conference. However, as I mentioned in an earlier post, my gut tells me the five schools leaked by the consulting firm will be the choice. Let’s hope my gut is wrong.
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Pat,
At this point, I´m not even sure you accept Notre Dame, even if they come crawling to your feet.
A couple points here though:
Like Frank says, if you are only adding one school, I guess that has to be Notre Dame. No other school – except Texas – offers enough, by itself, to warrant expansion.
That said, it´s not the scenario I prefer, and I´m not even sure if under a multi-school expansion I´d want to include them. I certainly wouldn´t want to include them at the expense of any of the schools in the package deal of Mizzou, Nebraska and Kansas.
If we are talking about a 5-team expansion, I think it makes it a little easier, but I think I´m hesitant because of the culture aspect. The Big 10 is essentially a Midwestern, large research school conference. While South Bend is certainly ¨Midwest,¨ Notre Dame is a private, Catholic University that might fit better with the Big East – the conference it willingly chose and one that´s composed of a similar culture.
So, I don´t know. If your 12th, 13th and 14th schools are Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri, I think you have to weigh these factors along with the finances and inconveniences that a 16-team conference would bring when considering Notre Dame and Pitt as the 15th and 16th schools.
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You are probably right on about culture, but I think totally off in the schools.
Fact is the Big10 doesn’t strike me as caring so much about location (I don’t care how rural it is, State College / PA is not mid-western in its cultural heritage) as it does what the university actually does.
Does a candidate see itself as a large univesity or smaller school? Is it more undergraduate or graduate focused? Is research a primary goal of the institution? Are athletics a major part of the program, or an afterthought?
Questions like these define the “culture” of the Big10, regardless of the culture of any particular schools region. If UConn gets into the Big10, uses its status there to become a top notch research university doing $500 million worth a year, expands enrollment, and continues to develop its (entire) athletic department how is that anything but “Big10” culturally?
This goes back to what JoePa said about joining a conference being more of a “marriage or common goals”. I really don’t think the Big10 cares about where a university is located (other than for $$$ purposes) so long as it shows those characteristics it sees in its already existing member base.
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It seems to me that what the “acceleration” of the process most likely means is that the Big 10 has only SERIOUSLY considered the 5 teams which were most intently studied — ND, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, Missouri. Seems to me that if schools like Neb., Kansas, U Conn et al were being seriously considered, we would have heard some semi-official “buzz” to that effect by now. While the fan forums and blogs are full of such talk, no journalist covering the Big 10 has said any of those 3 are being given serious consideration.
To me, this means the Big 10 will go to 14 teams, not 16. The 16# is being thrown around in case ND changes it’s mind, which won’t happen. In that event, the Big 10 won’t take 4 and go to 15…and they won’t add Nebraska, imo, given the haste with which events are proceeding.
If I am reading the situation correctly, I think Missouri is now in. The other 2 will be 2/3 of Rygers, Pitt, and Syracuse. No Syracuse please, waiter….
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But didn’t Barry Alvarez say in a presser back in February that the Big Ten was looking at 15 teams? And that Notre Dame and Texas weren’t on that list?
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@84Lion
Alvarez only stated Texas wasn’t on the list. He then went on to say that he doesn’t see Notre Dame joining. He never said they weren’t on the list, though.
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This strikes me as a sound analysis.
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Referring to mushroomgod’s analysis above, I suspect he’s right on the 16 if ND comes/14 if not point.
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I don’t see ND joining at this point no matter what. It would take a two step process to encourage them to the point of joining. They (and their alums) would have to see the seismic shift and feel the aftershock first. So if 5 schools get added now, ND will not be one of them.
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Patrick,
The more that I think about it, I’d almost be willing to add Pitt in the place of either SU & RU.
If the Big 10 were to decide that adding the 3 midwest teams makes more sense than adding multiple northeastern teams, then that decision would be based on the determination that ad revenue and fan interest out weighs tv markets (or they aren’t as sure that they can get the NY market to move the BTN to tier 1 even with multiple NE schools). If this is the case, then bringng in Pitt gives (in my opinion) a better rivalry prospect for the Big 10 schools (especially PSU). Personally I’d prefer to watch Pitt vs OSU than Rutgers/Syracuse verses OSU.
But I guess the Big 10 will at least try and get a foot in the NYC market. I just don’t see that market paying dividends, just like Boston College didn’t pay the dividends that the ACC.
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Small quibble: Kansas doesn’t have a “much larger population”. Even if you give SU & RU credit for just their home territories (upstate NY & NJ, respectively, no NYC), they bring several times more viewers than KU. Ignoring academics, home population is the biggest strike against KU; granted, that’s true for Nebraska as well, but their brand is significantly stronger and they’re good in a more (financially) important sport.
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@Richard,
One of the big questions that I have been pondering is how much weight to give fan support (advertising sales & rates) versus population (carry rates for cable). With the BTN making about 60% of the money from advertising, and that number growing, I think slightly more emphasis will be based on fan support. An important question to ask is… how much money does the universtiy make now? Due to or in spite of population. With all of the massive population numbers at it’s disposal, Rutgers (independently of conference pay-outs) made $50.1 million, Syracuse made $47.8 million, and Kansas made $62.0 million. So even though RU and SU have a bigger population they seem to be less involved with the university overall. Kansas did have one of the lowest population bases for the schools that I looked at, and it is an issue. I think the Basketball brand makes up the difference.
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Richard,
I don’t think that the arguement (at least for me) for choosing Kansas over SU or RU is tv market population. I think it has to do with college football interest. Even if you could get SU, RU & UConn, you still aren’t guaranteed to get the BTN moved up to tier 1 cable. The BTN is already available in those areas under tier 2, and could possibly stay that way even with the acquisition of all three schools because there currently isn’t a whole lot of college football interest in the NYC market.
Now the midwest is a little different story. There isn’t anyway that I would take Kansas by themselves or even with one other midwest team. But by taking all three you bring in 3 schools that already have a long history of playing each other and would fit nicely with Illinois, Iowa, and Minn. This would facilitate more interest for some the fans (especially those outside of the Big 10) when watching some of the 2nd/3rd level games that would be shown on the BTN which I would think would spurn better tv ad revenue.
Again, this is coming from an SEC fan that doesn’t know a whole lot about how the BTN works, but from a fan standpoint I’d be more willing to watch a Kansas vs Mizzou game than I would a Syracuse vs Rutgers game (and be more willing to pay to get the BTN in order to watch it).
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@Bamatab
You do bring up some good points on the advantages of bringing in Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. There is a lot of history between the three schools. For instance, Kansas and Missouri have the second oldest rivalry in Division I football, the Border Showdown for the Indian War Drum. Missouri and Nebraska play for the Missouri-Nebraska Bell which I actually never realized until I saw them bring it out at a game when I went to school at Nebraska. Also, the Nebraska-Kansas game is the longest uninterrupted series in college football (104 years in a row in 2009). That being said, I don’t think any of that would stop one of these teams from leaving the others for the BIg Ten.
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I don’t think this has been mentioned yet, but apparently Jack Swarbrick spoke to the Notre Dame Alumni Senate today and stated the following:
“Our highest priority is maintaining football independence.”
He may have just been appeasing the alumni, but he if he is, they won’t be happy if he breaks his word.
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Bamatab,
As a fan, the Mizzou/KU/Nebraska trio has been my dream scenario from the start. And I think you´re right, unlike what the Big 8 did, it is important to consider the culture of the expansion. That´s probably why I hate dipping into the NYC, Boston, DC corridor. I´d be ok with Syracuse though, since upstate NY fits the Big 10 culture much better – and adding one school eastern school would help balance out two western ones.
All that said, I love this blog since it does a good job of considering all the angles and incentives of expansion. The two-part plan makes perfect sense, however, Frank, there really may be more money at stake than initially meets the eye – as Bamatab wrote – to a Big 12 North raid.
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@Patrick – I’m not sure if you can find this info, but what is the carry rate for the BTN in the Philly market? My understanding is that it is less than the rest of Pennsylvania. This might provide some insight as to how the Big Ten could benefit from adding Pitt and Rutgers (and maybe Syracuse, too) if the current Philly carry rate is low but gets bumped up to the full rate in that market. That would be a lot of households which would provide additional revenue within the current Big Ten footprint.
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@Patrick, when looking at the SU/RU combo are you factoring in any bump of Philly up to Tier 1 for Comcast subscribers? They are now Tier 2 (digital sports channel in the 700s) at the lower carriage rate for Comcast because Comcast argued that the Philly is a pro-sports/Big East city and that the DMA is really Philly-Camden-Wilmington. With Rutgers in the picture, the bulk of the DMA which is Philly and Camden, would now be in-state and at the higher rate.
I believe NYC cable companies Time Warner and Cablevision also would want the same Philly/Comcast price exemption if Rutgers or SU were left out. If it were RU and not SU, they’d argue RU is in the state of New Jersey, the bulk of our DMA resides in New York state. If it’s SU and not RU, they’d take the Comcast/Philly approach – well SU is in the state of New York, but 31% of our DMA branches into the state of New Jersey and a small percentage branches into Connecticut.
And for the record, SU and RU fans were both credited by Time Warner in getting ESPNU added to expanded basic for both New York and New Jersey which at that time doubled the number of ESPNU subscribers from 10 million to 20 million.
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Frank, I have great respect for what you’ve done with this site – so much so that I assume some of the powers that be MIGHT occasionally be looking in. If so, I want to take every opportunity to explain why I think adding schools like Syr., BC, U Conn to the Big 10 is a bad idea.
First, I’ve never agreed with your “smell test” approach to the academic/research angle. Given that these will be 100 year relationships, I place a lot more emphasis on academic/research fit than do you. In fact, thinking like a university president, I believe academic/research fit is as important as any other factor to be considered.
Let me give you a couple of examples– my son is a HS jr looking at engineering schools. Unfortunately, (I’m an IU grad), Purdue has a great engineering school. They have app. 8500 engineering undergrads. PU’s undergraduate engineering population is roughly 45% the size of Syracuse’s total enrollment, including all graduate students. All of the Big 10 schools other than IU have engineering schools, and all are rated in the top 50 in the country. 6 or 7 are rated in the top 30.
I agree that Syracuse is an excellent private college, but all of the Big 10 schools other than NW and Iowa have enrollments over 40000. Two have enrollments over 50000. NW, the only other private school, is a huge research power, with over 9000 graduate students, and a medical center. With the exception of NW and Iowa, all Big 10 schools other than Iowa have at least 20000 more students than Syacuse. Iowa has 10000 more.
Again, I don’t intend to diss Syracuse. I know that Syracuse is considerably more selective than PU in admissions. I also realize that the Domers can turn this argument 180* as a reason not to join the Big 10– ie..different mission, objectives et al
Also, I agree Syracuse is solid in athletics. I do wonder about football future because the dome caps the program’s potential. For this reason, I’d put Syracuse behind Mo in football potential. But the attractiveness of Syracuse basketball in undenialable.
As a another example, compare Rutgers to Syracuse. Rutgers is the state u of NJ. It has 3 campuses (most present Big 10 schools have several regional campuses) and some 60000 total students, 35000 at NB.
What do the presidents of these giant institutions have in common with the president of Syracuse? Not a hell of a lot. So, imo, size does matter (hehe), and I’d rather stay big than go small. This needs to be considered when people are talking about adding BC (13000?), Syracuse (19000), U Conn (24000), and Neb (24000).
I’m not saying that other considerations don’t matter. I favor Rutgers because of tv sets. I favor Neb because of football. I favor ND because of tv sets, geography, history. I don’t believe, however, that ‘thinking like a president’ is equivalent to thinking like a tv exec or a sport fan, which is exactly what you are saying when you say that enrollment does not matter.
A couple of other matters–I note that you give zero consideration to geography in your index. This makes no sense to me. I think proximity to other Big 10 fans and administrators is a good thing. How many Big 10 fans are going to travel to Syracuse for football games? How many track and tennis and swimming championships will be held at Syracuse? Now substitute Pitt and ask the same questions….
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Well, I imagine Syracuse would be amendable to playing some home games against the likes of Michigan, OSU, PSU, (and ND if added) in/around NYC and Buffalo. NYC has a ton of alums from Big10 schools, and Buffalo’s pretty close to OSU & Michigan (of course, PSU fans would be close to anywhere east).
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I think we apply the smell test because ND was considered acceptable in the past decade with a small enrollment, small non-law grad programs, and without AAU membership.
Are the Ind. Engineering School rankings still
1. Rose-Hulman
2. Purdue
3. ND
?
I think the major ND alum disagreement with joining the Big Ten is that our aims, culture, and enrollements are quite dissimilar to the Big Ten template. It’s been the among our more thoughtful arguments against.
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Depends. If increasing research nad improving graduate studies is not a major goal of ND, I’d say the different aims/culture argument makes a lot of sense. However, NW has done rather well in the BT at both undergraduate and graduate levels. Also, As someone pointed out, lots of ND undergrads end up going to graduate school at Big 10 Us.
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RH is rated #1 in the country for schools that do not offer engineering doctorates….PU is rated from 6th-9th in the country overall amoung larger schools….UM and Ill. are right there with them. Wis, Minn.,NW, and PSU are all top 20-30. OSU and MSU are top 40 or so. Iowa is top 50. Not sure about ND.
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“What do the presidents of these giant institutions have in common with the president of Syracuse?” Interesting you should ask, albeti facetiously.
http://www.syr.edu/chancellor/about_chancellor_cantor/
“Prior to her appointment at Syracuse, Chancellor Cantor served as chancellor of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; provost and executive vice president for academic affairs at the University of Michigan, prior to which she had been dean of its Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studies and vice provost for academic affairs; she also was professor of psychology and senior research scientist at the Institute for Social Research at Michigan. Previously, she had been chair of the department of psychology at Princeton University.
Unlike some other alums, I don’t feel the need to stand on a soapbox and preach the benefits of SU to the B10. I also don’t feel the need to run to other sites and seek support for a position (http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=141&f=2455&t=5547158&stm=75552181). What I will say is that all the schools will ultimately stand on their own merits and I’m confident SU will get a fair review in the process.
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Let’s hope she liked her time at Princeton best….
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I mentioned in another thread the backgrounds of the various presidents and chancellors to check if they have experience with the so-called Big Ten culture & landscape. The incoming president at UVA has roots at MSU, an extensive career at Texas & leadership at U-M.
http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/newsRelease.php?id=10680
but would the fans be willing to move?
back in 2003, the ACC press conference was full of hope of academic & athletic potential…
http://www.theacc.com/genrel/070203aaa.html
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PSUGuy,
I was wondering this myself, like you I feel that Uconn, And Kansas are very similar institutions. I think what it would come down to is TV Sets.
According to tvb.org Connecticut has about 1 million TV households, while the State of Kansas has about 2.1 million. That is why I think in that instance at least Kansas would get the nod.
Now where is becomes tricky is if a person was of the mind that Uconn can somehow become “New England’s Team” and capture that whole region, then the number of TV Households for Uconn jumps to around 5.2 million double that of Kansas.
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Well Played:
Connecticut has 3.5M people, and Kansas has 2.8M, so I think TVB’s wrong (unless they’re counting all of KC as part of Kansas, and only metro Hartford as part of Connecticut or something funky like that).
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“Well Played:
Connecticut has 3.5M people, and Kansas has 2.8M, so I think TVB’s wrong (unless they’re counting all of KC as part of Kansas, and only metro Hartford as part of Connecticut or something funky like that).”
————
Yes you are right,
Connecticut is more populated, but TVB was counting TV Households in a given market which is different, and you are right I did count all the markets in Kansas just for the fact that everyone on the board keeps talking about the state wide pricing model for the BTN. One would assume the Big Ten would want to get the same rate in all the Kansas markets if they have a school in state, just as they have with other schools already in the Big Ten.
But That is also why I said in my post that if Uconn could bring in the other New England Markets: Boston, Portland ME, New Hampshire, etc. Then Yes Uconn would bring in almost double the TV sets that Kansas would. I was just unsure of how the state wide pricing model of the BTN would be applied to a region like New England.
I Think that is why Syracuse is so sexy to a lot of people here; their home market is only around 300 or 400k but if they could become “Up state New York’s Team” then all the markets in New York State other than NYC metro would mean around 2.7 million households.
Sorry I was not more clear in my line of thinking in my original post.
cheers-
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Patrick: incredibly enlightening. Thank you
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Patrick, it appears that you might be able to provide numbers that could frame some of this discussion.
If the Big Ten added Nebraska, Rutgers, Syracuse and Pitt, in 2015, what would you project to be the per member distribution received from the BTN? Please take into account: increased competition by suppliers of sports, fewer cable companies that are less inclined to compete and expenses.
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@Rich2,
Sorry I missed this earlier. I would very conservatively estimate the pay-out per school at $22.87 million. I thought it odd that you only choose 4 schools.
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22m per school for 15 schools? Then why expand? I thought I read that the current payout is 22m for 11 schools?
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Research. Sometimes, I wonder if you read the stuff other people write. I’ve already advanced my theory before that I believe the Big10 will expand in part (maybe even primarily) to increase their sources of research money and leverage research synergies, and the BTN makes it possible to without taking downside risk, so even if the research money goals are not met, at least athletically, everyone is still as well or better off.
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I don’t know where this post will be placed. It is in response to Richard, April 19, 2010 at 3:16pm. Research…
I do read what others write and I incorporate every analysis that I find compelling into my posts. “Sources of research money” is an interesting phrase. Are you suggesting that more NFS funds (and so on) would accrue to the current members of the Big Ten if Missouri, Nebraska, Pitt and RU are added to the conference? How so? How does this “synergy” occur? I have read (and voted against) countless proposals for “synergy.” And most importantly, by how many dollars per institution? Of course there are downside risks — when the “cheery” analysis of what will occur in five years is to “break even” (22 v. 22.8), risks abound.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_on_Institutional_Cooperation
Point is, each member of of the CIC gains the advantage of each other members’ research (or at least a large portion of it), without having to shell out the time and resources to do it on its own.
Try imagining the (huge) effort that might go into creating the first economically viable electric car….now imagine if PSU focuses its energy (read that as research $$$) on better battery technology, Michigan regenerative braking, Purdue lighter weight materials…each can contribute greatly while banking on the fact other schools will be “synergistic” in their research efforts without duplicating efforts.
As stated elsewhere, this means more research, better research, and that is going to attract the interest of technology companies/government institutions world-wide.
The CIC is already a $6 billion (yes with a B) a year endeavor fpr the Big10 and it looks to add $1-2 billion more in research via a 5 school expansion (and that’s in an economic climate that is strapped for cash). Joke is we’ve all been focusing on the couple hundred million dollars looking to be added via sports when it could very well be chump change compared to the research additions added.
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I’m not sure how much dollar value crosses over from one school to the other via the CIC, but I agree with your point. Which is why the presidents have to decide if choices are made purely at an athletic level (as many think) or more based on research (as I would do). However, Notre Dame was previously invited, so maybe they’re thinking athletics is more the issue.
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Even with your disclaimer, I have some questions.
One–if the Big 10 Network were the only way to get some ND games (as a PSU fan, there were at least three games that were only found on BTN last season), would we truly see the ND fans “demands” rise up? ND would be in the same boat…certain games would be only BTN.
Two–While Notre Dame alone wouldn’t be a big enough draw for the BTN to get on Tier 1 in Los Angeles, what about ND plus the current Big 10 (with its oodles of alums) plus other key additions (the x factors could include Texas schools, Nebraska). You have the lionshare of football superpowers in one conference in that scenario. The BTN might have to play “hardball” with ESPN for a while to gain their own national respect, but this seems like a way that the BTN could become Tier 1 in numerous markets, even outside of the locational footprint.
Three-I haven’t read anything that leads me to believe that the Supersized Big 10 would actually commence league play before 2015. There are a few factors that are “rushing” this process along, but all in all, a major change like this can take years to fall into place.
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@allthatyoucan leave behind,
Good points, I’ll answer what I can,
one – Yes, demand would rise and that would increase ad rates. But is it as much as other schools. If there is no expansion of footprint and carry rates…. you need to make up alot of advertising before it becomes a net positive.
two – That is a possibility, especially with the bordering states. In LA and San Fran. they hardly care about their own teams, it would be tough to get bumped up a tier. BTN doesn’t have to play hardball with ESPN. ESPN is another cable entity… and it is the BIG DOG. Carry rates for ESPN are over $4.00 per subsriber per month. BTN Is averaging around $0.36 per, about $0.65 for tier 1 and around $0.15 for tier two. BTN wants to get to tier one status for as many cable subscribers as possible…. but it is not ESPN, and luckly they only need to negotiate with the Cable / Satelitte providers. It is independent of ESPN or CNN or other cable stations.
Three – Very true! I don’t know when the expansion would be completed and when games would begin. It could be after 2015, but how much does that change the dynamic. Very hard to tell. If ND – MICH goes to the tv side and that bumps WIS – IOWA to the BTN which replaces Northwestern – Purdue which ends up on one of the aux channels it is still a net win, but how much? What are the advertising $$ differences. ND not expanding the footprint would be a bigger concern.
I’m sure that the BTN has people that have more exact numbers than I do and can calculate that. I am just trying to get a financial sense for why team A and why not team B. I haven’t looked at the ACC schools. I looked at the most often mentioned schools here mainly Big East / Big 12 north & Notre Dame.
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patrick, thanks for the info.
My “hardball” comment referred to the BTN holding out some key games for only BTN subscribers. If they farm out ALL of their big games, then becoming a “national” station never really happens. Lukewarm fans in Florida and Maine and California could care less about the “nice” games the “new” Big 10 would offer. But Texas/PSU, Notre Dame/Ohio State, Nebraska/Wisconsin would carry some wallop. The BTN had to play hardball in 2006 when they launched the channel to get where they wanted to be. I’m guessing they’d have to suck it up and take some short-term losses to get where they ultimately want to be (Tier 1 in virtually all markets coast-to-coast). No, they’ll never be ESPN or get close to ESPN’s Tier 1 rates…but there are plenty of channels on basic cable that barely sniff at the $.65 the BTN currently gets.
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@allthatyoucantleavebehind – My understanding is that the Big Ten negotiated a handful of weeks per season where BTN gets the #2 conference game after ABC. So, there have already been some pretty good games on the BTN depending upon the week (Ohio State/Wisconsin is one that comes to mind). Other weeks, it gets the #4 pick after ABC, ESPN and ESPN2. It’s doubtful that you’d see any of the games pitting 2 marquee schools against each other on BTN (Michigan/Ohio State, Penn State/Ohio State, ND vs any of those 3 schools), but the BTN benefits by getting those games where 1 marquee school is playing a school in the tier right below it (i.e. Wisconsin) or the ones with that draw well in the big markets like Chicago or NYC.
Basketball is actually the sport that gets a lot of great games on the BTN no matter what week – you really can’t follow your team at all if you don’t have the channel.
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From an interview with Kansas AD Lew Perkins:
But the hottest topic may have been NCAA Tournament expansion, talk of which has picked up steam in the media this week. Perkins expects the tournament to expand to 96 teams.
“In my opinion, that’s a done deal,” he said…
…He then was asked about the BCS, which Perkins said he supports. That wasn’t necessarily a surprise, but what he said next might have been. Perkins predicted the conferences that now make up the BCS would split off from the NCAA.
“At some time, the six major conferences are going to have their own quasi-NCAA,” he said. “They’re going to do their own thing.”
He didn’t think this was imminent, but was confident in it.
“It’s gonna happen,” he said. “I hear a lot of college presidents talking about those kinds of things.”
http://cjonline.com/sports/basketball/2010-04-13/perkins_tackles_big_topics_at_dole
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@Playoffs Now! – Not surprised about that comment at all. You will see the BCS schools split off from the NCAA before you’ll ever see a college football playoff system run by the NCAA.
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“At some time, the six major conferences are going to have their own quasi-NCAA,” he said. “They’re going to do their own thing.”
I have thought for some time that’s the way to go. Why share money with the non-BCS conferences and schools and water down the competition? I’m actually very pleased this is “gonna happen.”
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In one of the earlier expansion newspaper articles, Delaney was quoted as saying “possibly partnering” with “dozens” of schools. There may be a gigantic bombshell coming this summer or next.
It could be the BTN becoming a carrier of another conference, or splintering away from the NCAA.
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Splitting from the NCAA has been discussed for at least 30 years.
Most fans and media assume that means the top 40-80 schools depart and keep their loot and become a quasi-NFL.
If you talk to administrators a different picture emerges. Most talk in terms of a larger organization. While the is a vast difference between Ohio State and Ohio, the fact is that in philosophy about athletics, the Buckeyes and Bobcats have more in common than Ohio State does with Xavier, Dayton or Youngstown. There are 340+ schools in Division I. There are 120 FBS roughly that number of FCS (many non-scholarship or limited aid) and another 100 or so don’t play football ranging from major programs to barely there programs.
Most administrators think you have to bring along some non-elite schools politically and for scheduling.
The problem is where to draw the cut-off. There is a significant school of thought that says that cut-off is FBS football. It’s easier to explain. They can couch in term of the similarity. Remember in Division I you range from FBS schools who must award at least 200 scholies and sponsor 16 sports to schools sponsoring 14 sports, the grandfathered in Ivy which awards no athletic based aid, the Patriot that limits athletic aid to the athlete’s financial need, and a large number of schools that are sponsoring 14 sports and only awarding about half the allowed aid because that is the minimum.
Anything COULD happen but most likely if there is secession, it will be all of FBS and some elite programs will be permitted to do an equity buy-in. No more than 180 schools at the very most.
Another reason to think this way is the BCS. The five non-AQ leagues signed on for 9% of the revenue with a bump if they qualify to play. Compare that to the NCAA basketball revenue where the six AQ leagues take home only 47% of the revenue distributed to Division I, that’s after the NCAA takes out overhead and also shares a small amount with Divisions II and III.
The 55 non-BCS schools in FBS have demonstrated their willingness to work with the 65 BCS schools on a fractional income. Share-and-share alike has been imposed on them by the FCS and non-football schools. If you want rid of someone, it is those who make your life difficult and that is the non-FBS schools and NCAA management.
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ND fans will certainly demand the Irish on TV. Heck, we get real irritable if it isn’t on over-the-air TV.
I thought that was the big reason to get ND: to generate enough demands to get it carried on tier one in every urban area in America, or at least outside the old Confederacy.
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@FLP_NDRox:
I’m unsure ND joining the Big Ten would generate enough demand to get it in every urban area (assuming you’re not exaggerating) in America. If these numbers are to be believed anyway (http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/135294).
I think it’d be a big get for the northeast strategy and any other places where there are large alumni deposits that aren’t within the current Big Ten footprint. From a marketing standpoint it’d be good, as ND is a big brand. From a football standpoint, I think ND plays good football and would be a valuable addition to the conference. But do I think ND would secure BTN on basic in, say, Texas or Washington state or California? Nothing I’ve read so far would believe me to think that, although the trickle down effect of good matchups being on BTN because of a larger conference certainly makes that more probable.
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Saw where CBS (SEC) 2009 ratings were 4.0, ABC–3.9. NBC (ND) – 2.4…these were for the weekly games….highest NBC/ND ratings were 3.2 in 2002, their first year on NBC.
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For curiousity’s sake, if you considered Boston College (or Maryland) as potential candidates, how do you think they stack up in your list?
I’m wondering about the scenario of adding three teams and later on adding two more in a few years. Suppose that Nebraska, Rutgers, and Syracuse take the Big10 to 14. Then I see UConn and Pitt ending up in the ACC to make 14. So down the road do you think that BC (as the geographic outlier in the ACC) would consider joining if Mizzou or ND would join to go to 16?
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@Nittnay Wit –
I have been looking at Texas, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Kansas, BC, Maryland, UConn, Rutgers, Missouri, Syracuse, Pitt, and Iowa State. The tv side of things is difficult because there are many assumtions / educated guesses that need to be made. I can look up financial data and say Notre Dame Athletics – the NBC contract earned $66,088,368 in 2008 while Nebraska Athletics – the Big 12 tv deal made $66,271,383 in 2008. But with the tv deals you need to gather data on ratings, cable penetration, HH, and also estimate carry rates, ad rates, and which markets each team will bring. Will Notre Dame help carry NYC…. would Missouri or Kansas or both or either carry Kansas City…. does Nebraska carry the tv markets all the way to North Dakota (I have a brother-in-law in Wyoming that has the whole town freak out if the NU game isn’t carried). I will pass everything along to @FRANK when I wrap it up. It will be a tough decision for the B10 no doubt.
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I largely agree with this except Kansas is too unpopulated (yes, I know they have more fans in KC than Mizzou, but adding Nebraska, Mizzou + the rest of the Big10 would get the BTN on tier1 on all cable providers in KC anyway). As team 16, I’d prefer Maryland (if they’re willing to leave the ACC, or even UConn or Pitt to Kansas. Adding UConn has the added benefit of securing NYC more.
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@Richard – I was just thinking along these same lines re: Maryland. Think of these pods for a 16-school conference:
POD A
Penn State
Maryland
Syracuse
Rutgers
POD B
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Notre Dame
POD C
Illinois
Northwestern
Indiana
Purdue
POD D
Nebraska
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Maryland brings in the academic bona fides of Pitt but opens up a new market and makes up for the lack of households added by Nebraska on the western end (which means that the Big Ten can be even more comfortable going for the quality of Nebraska as opposed to the population of Missouri). As tight-knit as I believe the ACC to be, this is one scenario where I don’t believe Maryland could pass up if the Big Ten sends them an invite.
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This I like Frank. I love MD for the BT, just don’t think it’s likely they will make the big break from ACC. Money talks though. Would be great move for BT. Great for MD. This pod structure is good East/West balance, National brands for football, regional eastern markets (DC/No. VA/Philly/NY Metro) TV position, very good hoops upgrade, academic quality. Nice!!
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ACC then picks up Pitt, UConn, WVU?. Nice expansion to 14, big boost to BBall, real good football additions, good academics (?WVU but they can live with it), keeps their core solid.
So Flor., Louisville, UC unfortunately left picking up the pieces.
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@Rick – Yes, I’d actually be happy with that if only because I really hate leaving Pitt out of these Big Ten expansion scenarios for market purposes since they’re such a good fit in other ways. Pitt brings a lot of value to any conference that doesn’t have Penn State already. It’s very hard for me to stomach the thought of Pitt getting left behind in a decimated BE, so they deserve a nice landing spot in the ACC. WVU is going to be a tough sell for the ACC on the academic side, but they have such a great traveling fan base for a conference that’s in such desperate need of one that they may end up with an invite.
Louisville isn’t a bad candidate to end up in the Big XII, especially if Nebraska leaves for the Big Ten instead of Mizzou. If Colorado and Utah go to the Pac-10, then the Big XII could replace its open spots in the North division with BYU and Louisville, which is pretty good considering the other options. USF and Cincy are in real danger, though.
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I would really like Pitt in the BT as well. I like the school, the athletic programs, love Wanny, just good fit all around. the BT is the perfect fit for them. If ND passes then Pitt, MD, Neb, RU, SU is still a real nice expansion. Really nice.
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Don’t think anyone could object to MD. That would be big-time all-around….just don’t think that the Big 10 presidents are aggressive enough to pick a fight with the ACC. Also, I’m sure a substantial minority, if not a majority, of MD fans would be dead set against it, which would be a big concern.
As far as the other 4 go, Missouri is a far better choice than Syracuse. state school v. private…30000 enrollment v. 19000…3 or 4 times the research level…better geographic fit…better football stadium…it’s not even close….
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Louisville AD says Big 10 will definately expand and ND, Pitt, and Rutgers, in that order, are the primary targets….hmmmmm…..
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@mushroomgod – I’ve seen that rumor. I’ve also seen rumors that Syracuse is the #1 choice after ND according to other ADs. At the end of the day, I don’t think that they know WTF is going on any more than we do.
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link?
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mushroomgod..
link on the UL AD??
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Don’t know how to do links..but saw it on the Louisville Scout board…and discussed on the Pitt and Rutgers boards (can’t recall if rivals or scout).
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rick..
you have to go with my original thought.. B 16 gets maryland..
SEC gets the twins..
ACC goes down with loss of major state schools..
along line of Arkstfan comments.. 3 BIGS, and “the rest”
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Not sure why Maryland would give up their games vs Duke, UNC and Virginia, to play Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa. Maryland is bored as it is in their games vs newcomers BC, Miami, and Va Tech.
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@N.P.B. – Ah, the classic sandbagging technique. Pick the best 3 schools possible and then compare them to the worst 3 schools. With the scenario that we’re looking at, let’s turn it around:
“Not sure why Maryland wouldn’t jump at the chance of playing Michigan State, Syracuse and Ohio State, in order to keep playing BC, Miami and Virginia Tech.”
I’m also sure Maryland couldn’t stand playing, at the very least, Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan for football (and possibly Notre Dame and/or Nebraska) in order to keep their games against, well, Duke UNC and Virginia. (For everything that the ACC gives for basketball, it taketh away for football.)
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Frank:
Sorry, hope I didn’t come across as a jerk– I love your site here.
My point was that for Maryland to join the Big 10, at best they’d be getting an even swap– Duke, UNC, Va (to say nothing of NC State and Wake when they rebound) vs Ohio St, Penn St, Michigan… while at the same time, they’re cutting 57-year-old ACC ties.
Football-wise, if we’re up to 14-16 schools, would Big 10 scheduling scenarios guarantee that Penn State visits Maryland every other year?
Also, if geography is a less important concern in a big-money scenario where Texas is concerned, then what would stop a super-national-conference from being discussed? For example, the top six Big 10 schools could dissolve the conference, and re-unite in a new national conference. So you’d have top-6 Big 10’s with Texas, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama, UCLA, Southern Cal (or whatever six national powerhouses you’d prefer). Approach UCLA and offer a scenario where they’d never again have to go to Washington State or Oregon State, yet will have Ohio State, Texas, etc, on their schedule.
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@N.P.B.-
Just FYI – Maryland’s current tv contract take $5,571,000 joining the Big ten could push that to over $20,000,000. Cutting the long time ties is a big deal and maybe the ACC / Big East of the future can save the strong schools and make money more consistent with the other conferences.
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NPB:
Tradition. Granted, we’re arguing against tradition when contemplating Maryland to the Big10, but the financial boost of going from the ACC to the Big10 is much more certain than the financial boost of going from the Big10 to a completely new superduper-national-power conference (not to mention it would be incredibly hard to get the power SEC schools to go along with such a plan, since one reason there’s so much interest in SEC football is because those schools have built up generations of hate between each other).
In any case, for Maryland, the research/academic benefits and monetary benefits would be clearly better in the Big10. Athletically, you have to consider that some combination of Pitt,Syracuse, ND, UConn, and Nebraska would be added as well.
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NPB:
For Maryland,
1. Money
2. Fooball
3. CIC/Research
Plus OSU, PSU, and the other potential new Eastern additions (Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Rutgers) could make some great rivals in either football or basketball.
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@Frank, on a general note, great model for a workable sixteen team conference. Was just thinking, if the old 16 team Western Athletic Conference had adopted a “pod” concept (4 team modules rotating every year into two different 8 team divisions), the Mountain West might never had to split out to a separate conference. The WAC circa 1998 could have adopted the following structure instead of the two division structure they did have:
POD A: TCU, SMU, Rice, Tulsa
POD B: New Mexico, UTEP, Colorado State, Air Force
POD C: Wyoming, Utah, BYU, UNLV
POD D: San Diego State, Fresno, San Jose State, Hawaii
The WAC is constantly cited as a reason sixteen team conferences won’t work. The Mountain West was founded in 1999 as a breakout conference of eight teams falling geographically right in the middle of the conference. These teams were upset about disruption of close rivalries under a 16-team/two division setup.
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From what I’ve read, that is more or less how the WAC was set up. I think it failed not because of the setup, but because it was a collection of regional schools in a national conference.
All college football fans have at least a general idea of the schools in the Big 10, even if they grew up in a different region. They’ll get interested and excited when they appear on the schedule. They’ll see the teams in the other division on ABC, ESPN, and the Big 10 network; they’ll be talked about on sports radio. There won’t be any problems of unfamiliarity after the first few years.
For the teams in the WAC, that wasn’t so. They were trading one group of schools they rarely hear about for another. This was particularly true in an era when the internet wasn’t used extensively and most people only had 1 ESPN channel. So they didn’t know their opponents from the media, and they weren’t familiar with them from playing them year in and year out. The schools involved decided there wasn’t enough financial incentive to continue traveling across the country to make it work.
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My general point is that a pod scheduling structure is extremely adaptable and could be used to schedule almost any Big Ten expansion scenario up to (say) twenty teams, even odd-numbered configurations (so a 19-team conference would have three 5-team pods and one 4-team pod). Even if the Big Ten just adds Notre Dame and Syracuse for a 13-team conference, you can make three 3-team pods and one 4-team pod.
W Pod(West) – Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
E Pod(East) – Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
D Pod(Dome) – Notre Dame, Purdue, Penn State, Syracuse
I Pod (IN/IL) – Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana
Then just rotate your pods into one six-team and one seven-team division, changing every year. Preserves some traditional rivalries while also shaking up the schedules (and division races). This prevents recurring problems like the imbalance the Big 12 has between their North and South Divisions these days.
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The WAC16 did use a pod system but no combination was created keeping BYU/Utah/WY/CSU/AFA aligned. It is a gate receipts league and busting up those rivalries were bad for gate receipts.
Didn’t hurt that they discovered they could basically the same TV deal for 8 as they had for 16 with half as many sharing. Never good for stability.
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