Mucking Fichigan! Illini Downed by Threes Again

A few thoughts on the 72-64 Illinois loss to Michigan last night:

1) Michigan Needed It and Wanted It More – I was worried that Michigan would come into the game more fired up than the Illini since they were playing for their NCAA Tournament lives and that proved to be correct.  The Wolverines played with a sense of urgency while we looked like we were looking past this game toward Saturday’s tilt against Iowa.  The way the Big Ten season has played out, no one can take any game for granted, especially on the road.  Coach Bruce Weber had this to say about his team’s performance: “I told them after the game that we haven’t grown as a team. And we have to grow pretty soon or the season’s going to be history.”  Ouch!  That’s true, though.

2) Opponents Continue to Rain Threes – After shutting down Indiana on Sunday, Illinois reverted back to its disturbing trend of allowing its opponents to get hot behind the three-point arc.  Last night, it was Daniel Horton’s turn to have the game of his life with 39 points and going 5-for-7 from three-point range.  The Illini strength from the first part of the season on holding down opponents’ field goal percentage has taken a serious hit in the last 5 games.  This team needs to get back to form on its perimeter defense now.

3) Big Ten Title Still in Reach for the Illini – I almost wish that last night’s loss was truly the death knell for our chances of winning the Big Ten title so I can stop worrying about it and just concentrate how we’ll perform in March.  However, despite Illinois’ best efforts to give away the championship, we’re still more than alive.

The Illini have a tough final stretch of the regular season with Iowa at home, at Minnesota, and finishing at Michigan State.  If we can win those three games (and that’s a substantial but not implausible “if”), consider the schedules of the teams ahead of us in the standings.  Iowa will need to play us at the Assembly Hall, so if we beat them, the Hawkeyes are back in a tie with us.  Wisconsin has to play at Michigan State and then at Iowa to finish the season (not to mention a trap game tomorrow night at Northwestern).  Ohio State has a road game tonight at Michigan State and then a home game against Michigan this weekend.

If there’s one thing we know about the Big Ten, it’s that no team has proven that it is unstoppable.  There’s a better than even chance that all three of the teams ahead of us are going to drop one more game before the end of the season.  We just need to take care of our own business in the meantime.

Hoosier Daddies? The Illini Big Men

It’s always a good feeling to beat up on Indiana, even if the Hoosiers are having a down year.  What was even better about the 70-58 Illinois victory yesterday over Indiana was that this was the most complete and consistent game that the Illini have played in quite a while.  Although the margin of victory doesn’t indicate a blowout, Illinois dominated the entire game and didn’t have any lapse where the Hoosiers could start a run.

Plus, the Illini big men stepped up with perimeter shooter Jamar Smith out serving a suspension for an undisclosed indiscretion and the rest of the team shooting only 3 of 17 from three-point range.  With James Augustine leading the charge, Illinois scored 40 points in the paint.  That’s something we need to see more of for the home stretch of the regular season and into the NCAA Tournament.  We actually have a size advantage on most teams this year (in contrast to our guard-laden team last season), so we’ve got to capitalize on all of the mismatches in our favor down low every game.

The Big Ten race continues to be wild, as pointed out by Skip Myslenski of the Chicago Tribune, and the coaching situation caused by Mike Davis’ decision to resign from Indiana at the conclusion of the season is adding the proverbial fuel to the fire.  Considering some of the names being thrown around by Indiana fans as head coaching candidates, it seems as though Hoosier basketball fans are as delusional as Notre Dame football fans.  I’ve already said that Steve Alford would be nuts to take the job, but Thad Matta of Ohio State???  Matta has one of the greatest recruiting classes in the history of college basketball coming to Columbus next season.  Of course, there’s a segment of the wacky Indiana fan base that probably truly believes that Matta would jump at the chance to move to Bloomington and bring in Phil Jackson and Pat Riley as his assistant coaches.  To Hoosier fans: get over yourselves – your glory years ended two decades ago, so your rich history will only go so far in attracting the best coaches and players today.

Enough with the past of Indiana; let’s look at the present and future of Big Ten basketball with Illinois.  All games until the end of the season are going to be big with such a close conference race, but this is going to be a pivotal week in particular for the Fighting Illini.  The Super Tuesday game at Michigan is a must-win for both teams – for Illinois in order to keep pace for a shot at the Big Ten title and for Michigan to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive.  Muck Fichigan is going to come in fire-up in front of their home crowd, so this is a dangerous game for the Illini.  If we can get past the Wolverines, that would set up a showdown for first place with Iowa at the Assembly Hall on Saturday for the biggest game of the regular season to date.  With only two more games after that (tough road games at Minnesota and Michigan), whether Illinois can win its third straight Big Ten championship is likely going to be decided this week.

resignmikedavis.com and Alford’s Dilemma

Well, at least Illinois isn’t like our next opponent, Indiana.  The Hoosiers’ victory over us in Bloomington a month ago is as dusty of a memory for IU fans as Keith Smart’s jumper in 1987.  Since that game, Indiana has gone from being a top ten team to a club that is in serious danger of not making the NCAA Tournament at all for the third season in a row.

Indiana coach Mike Davis has been on the hot seat at Indiana since the day he was named as Bobby Knight’s replacement in 2000 and yesterday, he finally broke down and announced that he would resign from his position at the end of this season.  In the aftermath, the sports world is pretty divided between those who believe Davis was never given a chance to succeed and others who think that it was his own fault for the dearth of wins at Indiana.

I believe that it was a little of both.  It’s always tough to be the successor to a legend – look at the coaching carousel at UCLA since John Wooden left and how North Carolina ran its first two coaches after Dean Smith out of Chapel Hill.  What made the Indiana situation even tougher is that while Wooden and Smith retired on their own terms and hand-picked their successors, Bobby Knight was fired to the chagrin of much of the Indiana faithful.  That meant Mike Davis had absolutely no margin for error from the fans and resulted in immense and irrational outside pressure.

Regardless of that pressure, however, Davis wasn’t ready to take over the head coaching reigns of any Big Ten-caliber team in 2000, much less replacing a legendary coach at one of the nation’s most storied basketball programs.  Even worse, he hasn’t really improved either as a coach on the floor (Indiana not making 3 NCAA Tournaments in a row is unconscionable to Hoosier fans) or as a recruiter (two of the top high school players in the nation – Greg Oden and Eric Gordon – are from Indiana’s backyard of Indianapolis, yet they have committed to Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Illinois, respectively).  In the end, like any other program in the country, Indiana judges its coaches by wins and losses and Mike Davis simply didn’t meet the school’s standards.

It seems to be a forgone conclusion that Iowa coach Steve Alford is heading to Indiana.  The media loves the potential story of a former Hoosier hero swooping in to save the program.  However, I believe Alford would be absolutely nuts to leave his current job to go to Bloomington.  He’s had pretty much the same record at Iowa as Davis had at Indiana, as in there have been a couple of good seasons sprinkled in with general mediocrity and unfulfilled expectations.  For as much pressure as Indiana fans put on Davis, it seemed like they expected him to lose.  In Alford’s case, the same pressure would be there along with raised expectations for winning, even though his record doesn’t justify any higher expectations than what they expected out of Davis.

Plus, Alford would be going from a Big Ten school to a rival program in the same conference.  In a situation like that, the new program better be a huge upgrade over the old one, which I don’t think is the case at all.  Sure, the Hoosiers have the history and the alma mater factor, but for the past decade, Iowa has been at least as good or better of a basketball program as Indiana.  So, Alford would be trading his current job for another one that’s essentially a lateral move with a lot higher expectations and pressure.  That doesn’t sound like a great deal for Alford.

The Real Illini Hole on Defense

After all of those Daily Illini posts, it’s time to get back to another serious matter: the state of the University of Illinois basketball team.  It felt good to snap that 2 game mini-losing streak, even if it was beating up on Big Ten sacrificial lamb Northwestern.  This puts us back into position to grab a share of the Big Ten title since we still have one more date with league leader Iowa.

The disturbing thing for me over these last three games, however, is that our defense has broken down in one specific instance: our opponents’ fluky jump shooters keep having career days against us.  Look at Travis Parker from Penn State (4 of 5 from 3-point range and 21 points), Je’Kel Foster from Ohio State (6 of 8 from 3-point range and 18 points), and Vince Scott from Northwestern (3 of 3 from 3-point range and 11 points).  As my wife noted, Scott kept hitting ridiculous shots yet had so little athleticism that his feet didn’t even leave the ground while shooting.  As I’ve said before, not locking down on 3-point shooters is the way to get bounced early from the NCAA Tournament by a lesser team.

Illini Bucked Again by Ohio State

In theory, I think we Illini fans are pretty spoiled when we start panicking over a 2-game losing streak.  However, coming out so flat at Ohio State eight days after that stunning loss to Penn State at home was unacceptable.  It was one thing to let the Buckeyes’ Terrence Dials (better known as the second coming of Oliver Miller, who made his old Phoenix Suns teammate Charles Barkley look svelte) to take advantage of his size advantage over us down low.  However, to let a team shoot 13-for-23 on three-pointers when perimeter defense is our greatest strength is simply awful.  That’s the recipe for getting upset by a mid-major or small conference school in the NCAA Tournamnet.

A loss at Ohio State isn’t bad on paper, but the way we lost is really bothersome.  I hope Wednesday’s home game against Northwestern provides the tonic to our current mini-swoon.  With only three home games left, Illinois cannot afford to lose any of them if we still want a chance for the Big Ten title.

Land-o-Links – 2/7/2006

The Illini dropped down to #9 in the coaches’ poll and #10 in the AP poll, which seems about right considering the loss.  Anyway, here are the links for the day:

1) Guillen Shoots From Hip in HBO Interview – It looks like Ozzie Guillen prepared for his White Sox job interview the same way I did for my on-campus interviews back in college.

2) Catholic Group Says of “Da Vinci Code” Film: It’s Just Fiction – The PR campaign by Opus Dei in advance of the release of the “Da Vinci Code.”

3) Jazz Slinger Hits Flat Note – The Chicago Tribune interviews former Illinois star Deron Williams about his slow start in the NBA this season (by the way, get ready for an Illini reunion with Williams and Luther Head in the Rookie – Sophomore Challenge during NBA All-Star Weekend).

And finally…

4) Congresswoman’s House “Toilet Papered” with VCR Tape – Senior level TP was my best class in high school.

Not So Super Sports Weekend

A few quick items today on a subpar Super Bowl weekend:

1) The Good – I won my office squares pool since I drew Steelers 1, Seahawks 0.  The “code black” episode of “Gray’s Anatomy” was also excellent (although cliff-hangers drive me nuts).

2) The BadThe Super Bowl itself.  Neither Pittsburgh nor Seattle seemed to play anywhere near their peaks during the game (in contrast to the conference championship games).  The game didn’t come down to the wire and, aside from a handful of gems like the FedEx caveman and the Budweiser streaking sheep, the commercials weren’t great overall.  Not only that, my prediction of a Seahawks upset was completely off (although everything that I put on Seattle was at least balanced out by my squares victory).

3) The Ugly – The least of my worries going into the weekend was how Illinois would play against Penn State.  Boy, that proved to be wrong.  Blowing a 16-point lead at home to one of the Big Ten’s worst teams was one thing.  Having what was thought to be a game-winning 3-pointer by Richard McBride at the buzzer be called off by the refs (no gripe here – the replay clearly showed that it was the correct call) was devastating.  As Gregg Doyel noted today, this loss pretty much puts us out of the running for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  We can still grab a share of the Big Ten title (and I think we will), but a third straight undisputed conference title is unlikely.  Also, since we don’t play again until next Sunday, we have the whole week with this bad taste in our mouths.  It was just a bad loss at a really bad time.  I hope the Bruce Weber and the Illini respond to this in a positive way so that we can be prepared for March.

Zook Has a Happy National Signing Day

Coach Ron Zook lived up to his reputation as a top-notch recruiter and worked some miracles with his first true recruiting class (last year he was merely wrapping up the Ron Turner regime).  Scout.com rated the 2006 Illini recruiting class at #28 in the nation, Rivals.com put us at #30, while both agreed that we were #4 in the Big Ten behind the traditional heavyweights of Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan.

Considering that Illinois had a 1-23 record in Big Ten games over the last three seasons, the fact that we’re getting a better recruiting class than Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan State this year is indicative of how good Zook is at the recruiting game.  Particularly promising is Isiah Williams out of Chicago Vocational (the high school alma mater of Illini and Bears legend Dick Butkus) who is ranked as the #5 quarterback in the national class of 2006.  He looks like a mobile quarterback in the mold of Michael Vick and Vince Young, which would be an incredible development for the Illinois offense.

I’ve always felt that with a high quality home recruiting base of Chicago and St. Louis, the Illinois football program ought to be able to field at least a top 25 team every year and compete for the Big Ten title on a consistent basis.  However, we’ve been losing hometown players like Williams over the past five years to schools such as Iowa and Wisconsin, much less the monster programs of Notre Dame, Michigan, and Ohio State.

Hopefully, Zook’s success this year is a sign that the tide is turning on the recruiting front.  I’d like to see some top 10 recruiting classes within the next few years.  Of course, that will only happen if Zook excels at the other and much more important aspect of his job: winning football games.

Badgers? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Badgers!

Illinois is back in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten after handily beating Wisconsin 66-51 last night.  Considering how ridiculously brutal it has been for road teams in the Big Ten so far this season, the Illini victory in Madison puts the team at a distinct advantage over the rest of the conference.  Illinois has the first and, so far, only quality conference road win of anyone in the Big Ten.  While Michigan and Iowa have shown to be adept at defending their respective home courts, they have yet to prove anything on the road.  The Illini have a stronger unit than either of those teams (despite their loss at Iowa), so Dee Brown’s Crew is in a great position.

Two items that I pointed out about the Illini after the Braggin’ Rights Game over a month ago were showcased last night: stifling defense and putrid free throw shooting.  Illinois is as good as any team defensively in the country this year and they completely took Wisconsin out of their comfort zone.  The defensive intensity for the team is so high that the Illini will be in position to win games even when the offense is down.

What continues to worry me, however, is how poorly Illinois performs from the charity stripe.  We’re fortunate that a 9-for-16 free throw shooting performance didn’t bite us against a fundamentally sound Wisconsin team.  If we expect to go anywhere in March, there cannot be these types of lapses at the free throw line.  Until the Illini improve upon this area, we are completely ripe to suffer an unexpected upset.

Still, I’m happy to see Jamar Smith get back into his shooting groove over the past week.  As long as Illinois is able to spread out on offense, we’re going to find good shots both in the post and on the perimeter.  All in all, this was a great win for the Illini over a solid Badger team.  Let’s just hope that we can get sufficient improvement in the free throw area to take this Illinois club to elite status.

Illini Roll Over Pur-don’t and the Over/Under Teams in College Basketball

Three straight Illini victories that didn’t put me into the vicinity of a heart-attack – that’s a cause for celebration!  More importantly, Illinois’ 76-58 win over Purdue on Saturday, coupled with Michigan’s victory over Wisconsin, vaulted the Illini into a 4-way tie for first place in the Big Ten with Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa.  Indiana messed up its chance to be part of this discussion by getting thoroughly demolished at previously winless-in-conference Minnesota yesterday.

The way that no one can win a key game on the road in the Big Ten has reached epidemic proportions.  That makes the Illini’s Super Tuesday game at Wisconsin tomorrow night a critical point in the season.  A victory would give Illinois the upperhand in the Big Ten race with a road win at one of the toughest arenas in college basketball, not to mention knocking Wisky out of that first-place tie.  Just as important for Illinois is another signature win that builds the case for at least a #2 seed for the NCAA Tournament.  This is a huge game for the Illini (and for that matter, the Badgers, too).

The Over/Under Teams in College Basketball:

An argument about a team’s rank in the college basketball polls is usually an argument in semantics since it’s a pretty useless indicator of success when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.  However, I’ve got to comment on two egregious mistakes that I hope will be rectified when the new polls come out today as we recognize the most overrated and underrated teams in the nation:

1) Most Overrated Team in the Country – It’s unfathomable to me how Louisville is still in the top 25.  Maybe the nation’s sportswriters and coaches continue to be mesmerized by Rick Pitino’s wardrobe.  Hopefully, in the wake of the Cardinals getting pounded by Rutgers (?!) on Saturday, they’ll stop drinking the Kool-Aid and finally realize what the average college basketball fan has known for weeks: this year’s Louisville team is not only the most overrated team in the country this year, but they are probably one of the most underachieving college basketball teams of all-time.

It’s going to get far worse for Louisville since their remaining Big East road games are at Villanova, Cincinnati, Syracuse, West Virginia, and UConn.  Has there been any preseason national top 5 team in history that ended up not making its own conference tournament, much less the NCAA Tournament?  That’s a very real possibility.  This season has been an awful return to the Big East for Rick Pitino.

2) Most Underrated Team in the Country – This feels as good as a root canal to say this as an Illini man, but even before Iowa handled Indiana and Ohio State in successive victories this past week, the Hawkeyes have deserved some love from the national scene.  In addition to the aforementioned wins from this past week, Iowa has beaten Illinois, N.C. State, and Kentucky.  Sure, the Hawkeyes have suffered a couple of bad losses, but it seems as though the poll voters are as averse to cutting the team some slack for the great wins they’ve had so far as they are to punishing Louisville for their horrible performances this season.  No Big Ten team is looking forward at all to traveling to Carver-Hawkeye Arena for the next few weeks while no other team in country is going to want to face this Hawkeye club in March.