Before we get to the latest conference realignment news of Texas A&M sending an effective break-up letter to Dan Beebe and the Big 12, let’s take a moment to pour out some Cris in memory of the Cy-Hawk Trophy Version 2.0. It lived for less than a week, but it left an indelible image in the minds of Americans the same way that the chick from The Exorcist warms your heart the first time you see her head turn around 180 degrees. Only this trophy could make the Altoona Senior Bowling League Trophy with a Mold-a-Rama Lion Pasted on the Side (known in some circles as “The Land Grant Trophy”) look like the freaking Stanley Cup by comparison, which was a phenomenal achievement. It’s a shame that it received a Suge Knight cap in its ass before it even had a chance to explore the world.
As for Texas A&M changing its status to “Single” on its Facebook account, it’s been something that’s been coming down the pike for the last couple of weeks. What’s interesting is that my questioning of the financial parameters on the SEC side was confirmed by a conference official in the New York Times:
The official acknowledged that because of the length and structure of the SEC’s current television contract, adding Texas A&M and a 14th member would not be financially beneficial from a rights standpoint.
Texas A&M and Team No. 14 are expected to receive a pro rata share equal to what the SEC’s 12 current universities are making: an average of about $18 million in league payouts. (Individual universities can make more money from their separate television deals.)
The SEC deal, which ends in 2025, has a few windows when it can be renegotiated but no one from the SEC or the networks expects any radical change.
So, this move is NOT about the SEC being able to reopen its television deal in order to gain more money than what the United States currently has on hand to pay Social Security checks (as so many people have assumed). Maybe the SEC sees this as the one opportunity to get A&M in the next couple of decades and that’s why they’re moving now despite not being able to realize much (if any) TV revenue from their addition until after 2024. Whatever the reasoning might be, it seems that since the SEC can’t just open up its TV contracts again by expansion, such expansion is going to be kept at a minimum for now. As a result, the obituaries being pre-written for the Big 12 and ACC from the SEC supposedly going into 16-school superconference mode immediately are way too premature. The SEC will need to find a school #14 fairly soon, but who knows who it will be. (I do NOT believe for a second that it will be Virginia Tech, but I’ll write about that more extensively in a separate post.) Right now, appears that either (a) the Big 12 will lose another school to the SEC on top of A&M, such as Missouri or (b) the Big 12 and one of either the ACC or Big East (maybe West Virginia) may lose a school to the SEC, yet in each event those leagues will still continue to live.
This gets to this question: who the hell would join the Big 12 after losing A&M and maybe another school?
Let’s start by putting some asinine “Notre Dame to the Big 12” proposals to rest. Somehow, a friendship between Jack Swarbrick and DeLoss Dodds with a 4-game football series over the course of 8 years has been transformed by some in Big 12 country to signal Texas and Notre Dame working together to split up the college football universe. (Examples of this aren’t just in Texas, but the Kool-Aid is spreading all the way to St. Louis, too.) Putting aside the fact that Notre Dame would effectively throw away, well, ALL of its rivalries in this scenario in order to play Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and friends (as opposed to the more simple solution of just playing the two schools that are of interest them of Texas and Oklahoma as an independent… which ND happens to be already doing), I’ll reiterate what I’ve stated several times on this blog before: independence is a school identity issue for Notre Dame, NOT a TV money issue. It continues to amaze me how many people think the money that ND is getting from NBC is somehow special when Northwestern and Washington State are absolutely murdering the Irish on that metric in their respective conferences’ equal revenue sharing arrangements. The point is that ND isn’t independent in order to maintain an NBC contract. Instead, it’s the other way around: ND has an NBC contract as a means to maintain independence. In other words, the endgame for ND is independence in and of itself (not the money that is made from being independent, as the school has plenty of money from its alumni base). Thus, all of the suggestions that the Longhorn Network shows how the Big 12 could offer ND a way to keep its NBC contract are completely irrelevant, as even if that were the threshold issue (and it isn’t), the Big East would gladly take in ND on that basis or, better yet, they could just stay independent. Now, if we get to a model where there are 4 16-school superconferences and you structurally MUST be a member of one of those 4 leagues in order to have access to the national championship game, then that’s the point where ND would join a conference. It won’t be a moment before that point, though.
Getting that out of the way, let’s take a look at some realistic candidates to join the Big 12:
1. BYU – This is really the Big 12’s best target that would almost assuredly accept. I’ve gone over why I believe that BYU would actually be fairly successful as an independent and that translates into being a viable addition to an AQ conference like either the Big East or Big 12. Based on fan base size and long-term TV value, BYU is clearly the most valuable school available in the non-AQ ranks.
2. Louisville – While conference realignment is all about football, it should be noted that UL was #2 in the country in basketball revenue in its last season in Freedom Hall. With its new Yum! Center (or as I like to call it, the “KenTacoHut Center”) revenue, the school will almost assuredly be #1 on that list when last year’s figures come out. At the same time, UL has a solid football fan base that has simply been beaten down by some horrible coaching over the past few years. If I were Dan Beebe, my plan would be to extend invites to BYU and Louisville immediately after A&M makes it exit. The issue with Louisville is that they may prefer to stay in the Big East, although that particular league may not come out unscathed if the ACC takes a replacement school or two from there. I’ve talked to a number of Louisville alums who, at a fan level, do not support a move to the Big 12, but if we’re talking about a league that’s reasonably assured of keeping both Texas and Oklahoma, UL’s leadership might see things differently.
3. TCU – A Big 12 with both UT and A&M has zero need to add any other Texas-based schools. With A&M leaving, though, quality becomes more of a concern than markets and it may be more beneficial to go even further into the Texas market compared to some of the other non-BYU non-AQ options out there. I had been pushing TCU to the Big East for a very long time and was happy to see that marriage happen, yet there’s a chance that they’ll never move in together. Like Louisville, though, the Big 12 may actually not be that attractive compared to the Big East right now. Adding TCU would be a good football move for the Big 12, but the good (and/or forced) political move would possibly be adding…
4. Houston – There seems to be two schools of thought regarding Houston going to the Big 12. The first is that this would be a nice move from a political perspective, where the leaving of one Texas-based university from the Big 12 opens up an AQ spot for another school from the state. If we also believe that UT enjoys tons of control, this is yet another school that it can lean on for the long-term. The other school of thought, though, is that UT would want nothing to do with Houston. In essence, it’s almost too easy of a political bailout for A&M while UT ends up being forced to always take care of UH down the line if the Longhorns ever want to explore other options (i.e. heading to a Pac-16). We’re already seeing some Texas politicians getting into the act on this front. A year ago, I would’ve put UH near the bottom of the list of any possible Big 12 candidates. Now, though, they may very well be the most likely next addition.
5. UNLV – Location, location, location. This market ought to have a pro franchise yet all of the leagues are still spooked by the tiny bit of gambling that occurs here. Nevada is also the most populous state that doesn’t have an AQ school. I’m always surprised that UNLV doesn’t get a little more love in these conference realignment scenarios. As far as the non-AQ schools go, they have some fairly nice attributes with virtually no local competition (albeit with more value on the basketball side as opposed to football).
6. Air Force – National following and generally performs the best out of the service academies. From a pure financial perspective, Air Force might be right behind BYU in terms of desirability. As for actual football, though, there’s a big-time risk that the Falcons will have competitive issues at the AQ level in the way that Army couldn’t even handle C-USA. There’s simply always going to be a limit to how well Air Force could ever perform (not that this is unjustified, as its students have far more important duties than playing football).
7. New Mexico – Flagship university of a fast-growing state with an excellent basketball fan base. The problem: they’re to football what Rebecca Black is to singing.
8. Memphis – Ditto, only it’s not a flagship.
9/10. SMU/Rice – All you need to know is here.
Purely throwing crap against the wall right now, I’d say that A&M is the only loss from the Big 12, which will spur DeLoss Doss… er… the conference to invite BYU, Houston and UNLV to get back up to 12. In other news, we have real football games being played next week. It can’t come soon enough.
(Follow Frank the Tank’s Slant on Twitter @frankthetank111 and Facebook)
(Image from Rotten Tomatoes)
Bacon. Also, add.
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Add. GBR
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Add
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add
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Add pt. II. Doesn’t seem to stick when I do it from my iPhone.
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Re-add
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I’ve had the same problem from my Android phone.
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Geaux Tigers!
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Interesting perspective; I had envisioned Louisville in a post-Texas, post-Big East Big 12 created to keep Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State in a BCS conference (though I had Cincinnati and Texas Christian also in). Perhaps a Louisville-Cincy combo might address any UL fears of isolation.
And while UNLV may be attractive, so would Nevada-Reno, and it brings better football to the table. Reno could bring in Boise State as well, making it a western triumvirate with Brigham Young.
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We are …
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Penn State!
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Go Hawks! – To the ole’ drawing board with the clones. Here’s an idea – anything that has nothing to do with corn. We get it. Iowans grow corn. There has to be something else. I can remember when the state quarters came out and a lot of folks in MI were really opposed to putting anything auto related on it. Just go a different route, man.
Nice post Frank – but quit baggin on my bowling trophy. It is finally home.
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Best Case Scenario for the Big 12 is add BYU, UH and Louisville to the league. Move OU and OSU to the north for competitive balance. Have an old Big 8 division and then a revamped geographically challenged south with the remaining schools. Make Jerryworld in Dallas a permanent championship game site and hope to god you can make it 10 years. (really hope)
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Jerryworld “was” permanent.
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Assuming A&M does leave, I’ll still argue that the most likely candidate to join the Big 12 is “None Of The Above.”
Practically speaking, there’s not much of a difference between a nine-team and a 10-team conference, so if losing two teams wasn’t a spur to get back to twelve, given the available and realistic candidates, I don’t see why dropping to nine would lead to that happening either.. But one thing it does permit is the opportunity for one extra non-conference game — and if we want to look at this from the the perspective of Texas, and the LHN, controlling the conference, this provides Texas the opportunity to schedule one additional home OOC game each year, with TV rights going to LHN.
One additional home OOC game gives teams, including Texas, one additional chance to fill the home stands. Texas Memorial was expanded to over 100K in recent years, and prior to Nebraska’s departure and the implementation of a round-robin conference schedule, Texas was beginning to regularly play seven-game home schedules. However, the implementation of the ten-team round robin led to future schedules, all the way through the end of the decade, with only six games per season in Austin.
(A couple of notes here. First, remember that Texas loses a game in Austin every other year because of the OU game being played in Dallas. Second, Texas always plays at least one OOC game away from home. Mack Brown has stated that he likes his players to have a dry run of working through travel-related experiences before conference play begins. That scheduling philosophy leads to one potential home date [and, in current scheduling, that seventh home game] being forfeited each year.)
Dialing back to a nine-team round robin schedule allows Texas to fills those extra seats it just paid for one extra time a year and, presumably, televise that game ON LHN.
Given that, with the possible exception of BYU — and I really think they’d prefer to give independence a real shot rather than hitch a ride with a struggling conference — none of those other teams listed are a net plus to the conference, let alone a net plus to Texas’ particular interests.
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I think the main issue though might be ESPN demanding the addition of a 10th team. The number of conference games is the key issue I believe. Big 12 has 45 conference games right now, that’s down to 36 if the conference stays at 9 teams.
I think ESPN/FOX will likely demand a 10th team to be added in order to get inventory back up to maintain the levels of the contract.
Either way that’s a key issue that has to be addressed…
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However, I would add that I only see 1 team being added. I think 10 teams is the most that conference would have right now, seeing as it would be too diluted if you can’t find quality schools to add.
Just getting back to 10 and staying pat is what I’d view the most likely scenario as, particularly if the TV networks want 10 teams.
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Reading this discussion, I can see getting a school to get back to ten does make some sense if the right school is available for the purposes of existing television contracts. But I continue to see little to no chance of adding three just to have the ability to play a championship game again.
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Agreed. If the Big 12 can get BYU to replace A&M, I think everyone will end up content for the short/medium term.
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I think Frank may have been suggesting adding Louisville and TCU only if the Big 10 and/or ACC start picking off Big East schools left and right.
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However, would ESPN really pay extra to televise, say, UH or Louisville vs. anyone other than OU or Texas? I think ESPN would rather ask for control over scheduling of one OOC game for each school in the conference so that it can arrange attractive matchups (like it does now for BYU).
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Remaining at 9 teams may not be an option if the TV networks don’t like it. I’m curious to see what happens to the new TV deal if A&M leaves.
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zeek beat me to the punch
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Just think of how Texas will be rolling in dough when they’re the only one left in the Big 12 & only have to split the revenues one way!!!
Genius!
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And who could Texas schedule out of conference that would fill up that Austin stadium?? Any school come to mind?
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I agree with the others. Fox will insist on 10. I think they go to 10 and strongly consider 12, but not until the ABC/ESPN contract comes up.
I think BYU or UL would say yes pretty quickly. But if not, then its New Mexico or Houston, depending on what Fox and ESPN say. They won’t invite TCU. And TCU shouldn’t accept. TCU has a much better chance of succeeding in the Big East. They don’t have the resources to play with the bigger universiites consistently. They were the worst program in the SWC over the last 25-30 years of the conference.
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I agree 100% on the TCU point. I think TCU has a much, much better shot at brand differentiation in the Big East (including BCS bowl appearances, etc.), than they would have in the Big 12. Obviously, this all is impacted by the eventual playoffs/superconference scenarios, but I find it hard to believe that the Big 12 will mostly make it through to that. Texas and Oklahoma will (as may their hangers on), but there’s no certainty of anything at this point outside of the 12 team conferences.
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I wouldn’t be so sure about BYU or UL. BYU values independence for reasons other than money, and joining a conference that is perpetually on the verge of falling apart doesn’t help them much. UL would be trading a great hoops home for instability and even more travel. Especially with a new BE TV deal on the way, they may prefer to stay put at least until they know what Marinatto gets for them.
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You are right, except for one minor detail. It blows up the recent B12 TV deal with ESPN and FOX. And if the plan in renegotiating a new TV deal is for UT to carve even more rights to games out for UT to show on LHN, that will significantly lower the value of the renegotiated B12 TV deal. That will hurt everyone, especially Oklahoma. Oklahoma has done very well being tied to UT for the past couple of decades, but even Oklahoma can be pushed too far. If UT gets too “grabby” Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will go as a pair to either the SEC or the P12.
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Hawkeyes #12 in the B10.
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SWC, Big 8, Big 12…basically a 20 year collegiate sports gulag. Most older fans of each conference’s teams are basically in denial. If Missouri grows a pair and starts shopping for its future, it is all over.
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Kansas already has one foot out the door as well. The Big East is Kansas’ preferred destination.
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@ OT
Is this what you have been hearing or reading about Kansas?
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I would be very surprised if the Big East was anything but Kansas fallback position. The Big 12 would still seem to be very much a better conference for the Jayhalks.
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Missouri can’t leave unless somebody invites them, which they won’t. If either the B1G or SEC takes Mizzou, they risk letting Texas and Oklahoma fall into the wrong hands. If they don’t *know* they can have UT/OU, it’s preferable for them that the Big XII stay alive, lest the PAC turn into a powerhouse with 3 top-10 all time programs, all of California’s recruiting, and the majority of Texas’s.
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Winning.
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add
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BEST BLOG TITLE EVER!!
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In Soviet Russia blog reads you!!!
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Why would BYU want to join the Longhorn Conference and become Bevo’s B*tch?
BYU is a control freak that needs:
1. Control of sports TV inventory.in order to fill BYUtv.
2. Control of a conference. BYU has control of the WCC, which basically handed BYUtv the media rights to all WCC championships that have not been sold to ESPN, Inc. as a condition of BYU joining the WCC.
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Getting content for BYU-TV wouldn’t be an issue in the Big XII since they allow schools to run their own networks. They might not get broadcast rights for championships, but the overall content would be better. And I don’t think control is an issue, that was just a bonus for joining the WCC. Remember, BYU was content to stay in the equitable MWC when it looked like AQ status was possible, but bailed after Utah jumped ship. Also, the school’s first choice for its non-football sports was the pre-raided WAC, which was not offering the same deal as the WCC. Plus the Big XII (if it survives) is likely to become a conference in which the haves rule their own little fiefdoms with little influence from other members.
That said, I do agree with you that BYU would be very hesitant to join the Big XII for the simple fact that they are unlikely to give up a pretty damn good deal in order to a join a conference that may not even be in existence in five years. If they knew that conference was guaranteed to survive then, yeah they would make the move, but they aren’t going to jump at the chance to join a league that is likely to be perpetually bordering on implosion.
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The also restrict that control to a single OOC tier 3 game. If you can find a conference partner to agree, the B12 allows one conference game to air on a university owned network. Not exactly a lot content for BYUtv.
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I don’t see how that was any would any different than what they have now. Their deal with gives BYUtv one live football broadcast per season, and the rest are put on ESPN. Though they do get replay rights which I’m not sure the Big XII would give them.
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I think Fox sports might have an issue with putting the games on ESPN since they own the tier two rights and not ESPN.
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I assume that BYU’s deal with ESPN would void if they joined a conference. Plus, remember that unlike the LHN, BYUtv is not a sports network; its a religious network that shows sports. As such, BYU doesn’t need a huge amount of sports content for the network to work.
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And yet BYU’s inability to put as much sports on BYUtv lead them to leaving the MWC.
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I don’t know if you did it intentionally Frank, but if not, you should know the Blues Brothers stole their outfits from the M.O.B. (Marching Owl Band).
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you missed Cincinnati. If Louisville joins it would be with Cincinnati as a traveling partner. UNLV plays in a high school stadium, and wouldn’t qualify.
As for those suggesting OU would go to the North, have no idea how that would go over in Norman: It wouldn’t. OU isn’t going to the North. If they can’t be in the same division as Texas, they might as well grab the money in the Pac12.
Which is where OU is going, unless Nebraska gives some pull for the Big 10 and gets OU in there…but from the posts in the last blog, it looks like many fans are hoping the future of the Big10 will be a bunch of egg heads that can’t play football. Apparently Big 10 fans are looking forward to buying a lot of tickets to Chess matches and solar powered car races.
For the record I also believe adding schools to the SEC or any conference would be by definition the reason to cause a look in to TV contracts.
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For what it’s worth though, I think the fact that Delany is in charge means that football is entirely driving the bus at the Big Ten. Nebraska’s addition shows that to the most extreme in that they bring the smallest possible home market of a major school (especially a king), but have such a great national brand in football (while being mediocre at best in the other major revenue sport of basketball).
Notre Dame-Oklahoma is probably Delany’s dream scenario if he could cook up a dream scenario that had to exclude Texas because of the LHN.
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I couldn’t agree more. After that, I think he would be perfectly content to stand pat.
-unless, of course, the ACC goes wobbly.
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Delany isn’t in charge, the presidents are. He just gets to do the homework and make recommendations for/about expansion.
NE was a sound financial decision with the value of their brand trumping their small state population. Having 4 kings to split 2 and 2 is great for going to divisions.
I think Delany would be happy to consider ND and OU, unless the presidents have already told him no to OU. For all we know, the presidents have already given him a list of schools that are either off the table (UC, OkSU, TT, etc) or would be automatic yeses (ND, UT), with some in the gray area (okay as a partner, but not by themselves).
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Nippert is actually smaller than UNLV’s house.
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I hear you brother. This blog (great as it is) is oddly dominated by the “Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, Virginia” crowd. This, despite the fact that Delany has said any new members would have to be home-runs that significantly moved the needle. The Big Ten isn’t about to divy up the pie for ANY of them. Of all the colleges that fit into that category, Maryland is the only possibility. Beyond that I think your looking at a very small pool. ND, Texas, North Carolina/Duke, Florida State, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech and, before it turned zombie, Miami.
The best laugh of all is the ‘cultural fit’ argument. The idea that Delany’s Big Ten vision is to remain a regional, Midwest conference goes against his trailblazing tenure. He’s well aware of the population shifts and knows that to compete in the future the B1G has to become a NATIONAL conference. If they go to 16 or 20 he is going to cast his net far and wide
-for B1G fish.
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You may be right about Delaney wants…but then again you may not be. I am of the impression that Rutgers would already be in the BIG if Delaney had his way. Don’t you recall the “People ignore the NY market at their peril” comment? So I think you’re wrong about Rutgers…
As the other, what Delaney wants is not necessarily what he gets. I’m sure he wants TX and ND. He likely won’t get either. Nor will he get NC or Maryland. He may want OK, but that’s not going to fly with the presidents.
As for cultural fit being a “laugh”, you apparently aren’t paying a lot of attention to the issues to the issues the BIG 12 and ACC have experienced…..if this is going to be a 50 or 100 year fit cultural fit is imperative. You can laugh at that, but you’re wrong.
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GreatLakeState,
This blog is dominated by people who try to realistically assess the situation. Most of us don’t think the B10 will expand or don’t want it to. Of those who think/hope the B10 will go to 16, they mostly think a combo of BE and/or ACC schools is most likely.
Until we learn otherwise, the assumption is that OU and OkSU are tied together. The B10 won’t accept OkSU, so OU is off the table. That leaves MO as the only potential add from the B12 based on academics and culture (I’m assuming UT is not coming).
ND will only join a conference if they are forced, so they won’t come before being #16. Who else is left besides the ACC and BE teams, then?
You mock the people here for bringing up schools, and then you list 6 ACC schools as options. The most common plans discussed here involve getting some populous states with good academic schools we know the B10 COP/C would accept. That’s usually 4 ACC teams (MD, UVA, UNC, Duke) or a blend of ACC and BE schools (MD, Rutgers, Syracuse, maybe Pitt or UVA). You list 3 of those 4 ACC schools as options yourself.
You are making the huge assumptions that the B10 is going to 16 or 20 and that Delany could get home runs to fill all 4 or 8 slots. Both of those things can’t be true. There aren’t that many home runs available, and they wouldn’t all want to be in the same conference anyway.
You can laugh at cultural fit all you want, but Delany himself has stressed that multiple times since 12/2009. It makes it look like you don’t pay attention to the facts, GLS.
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There is another problem with Oklahoma joining the Big 10, which is the fact that the school needs to be in a conference with at least one of UT and OSU since they have to play both of them every year. And since both of those are non-starters for the Big 10 (at least as long as the LHN exists) it is tough to envision the Sooners making the jump.
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UT and OU were in different conferences yet played each other every year in the Red River Shootout until the Big XII was formed in 1996.
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Yeah, but they were in a conference with OSU since the ’50’s. Like I said, they need to be in a conference with at least one of them.
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Redhawk, I have read on some blogs that OU is very unhappy with the present state of the Big Twelve. I have read that if the Big 10 (BiG) invited OU that OU would break with OSU and accept. But I have also read that the tie to OSU is unbreakable. And I have read that Stoops is very, very unhappy with the present conditions of the Big Twelve and is fighting with the AD, whose name escapes me. Stoops wants OU to take a stand against the powers that be to get OU “outta here” and the OU president is listening. Have you heard anything to that effect?
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The Big XII is very VERY lucrative for OU. It is not going to be easy, nearly impossible, to beat how much OU makes in the big XII deal. Why woud Stoops Kill the goose that layed the golden egg? Beat Texas = BCS invite and Conference win means almost automatic National Championship. Majority of OU team is from Texas. Could Texas even maintain OOC games against bot OU and A&M?
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@the Blanton
While the Big 12 has been VERY good to OU in many, ways, as far as MONEY goes OU would make more in the B1G and the Pac16 tomorrow.
your question is could Texas maintain OOC games against OU and aTm? well, yeah of course, since they will be independent or in a very week SW Conference rebuilt from the left-overs, they will desperately need to play those 2 games to help sell tickets/donor packages.
A more apt question is could OU play UT OOC AND OkSt OOC? or could A&M play UT OOC while playing the SEC schedule.
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@swesleyh That is pretty much what is going on at OU. They liked the Big12..it was good for OU. OU is in the center of the geographic footprint of the conference. But it seems those at the top are starting to figure out that it’s time to move on.
The tie to OSU is not “unbreakable”….but OU officials don’t want to be in a conference with out UT OR OkSt.
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Redhawk,
First, nobody is taking UC, especially since high schools in TX have bigger and better stadiums.. UL wouldn’t get to dictate terms like that.
Second, you misread the blog. Most of us don’t think the B10 will expand and/or don’t want it to expand. Of those who think/hope the B10 will go to 16, most believe some combo of ACC and/or BE schools is the most likely scenario. You may not like it, but academics are important to the presidents of the B10 universities and to most of the alumni. The B10 isn’t just an athletics conference, so academic credentials matter. Until proven otherwise, OU is tied to OkSU and the B10 will not admit OkSU due to academics. That makes OU a moot point.
I think people are split on whether or not the B10 would even admit OU by itself based on academics and cultural fit, but the brand name might get them in. It’s not that NE is that much better than OU, but the B10 wanted a 12th team at the time and NE was available. The B10 doesn’t need or actively want a 13th team (except ND, who presumably has a standing invitation). The imminent demise of the B12 reinforces the importance of cultural fit, too. All the schools need to think alike to make a conference prosper.
There are lots of reasons to look into TV contracts. However, looking into them by no means guarantees a big pay raise.
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I think the B10 would want OU if it didn’t have to bring along OK State, but I don’t see OU being able to shed OK State so long as Boone Pickens is alive.
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Remember, there are ties with the Big Ten and Pac 12. They are different conferences yes, but they both hold their traditions with each other very seriously. Scott is friends with Delaney and worked under him. It was Delaneys recommendation that landed Scott his job at the Pac 10, (Now Pac 12)
That being said, If Big Ten wants OU and OKSt is taken care of by going to Pac 12, then no one in OK loses.
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And…that puts the Pac 12 in another time zone.
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Sure. So does taking ISU or Rice. That’s not reason enough to take OkSt. without taking OU.
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However, despite their friendly ties, why would the Pac do the B10 a favor and take OkSt. just for the B10 to take OU when they could try to take both OK schools themselves?
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The Pac 12 being in the Pacific Time Zone puts us at a disadvantage to the rest of the US.
There is a huge population gap between the midwest and the west coast and because of that, and the fact that our 5:00 games start at 8:00 on the east and our 7:30 start at 10:30 on the east. getting deeper into another time zone by itself creates appeal for the Pac 12.
If expansion blows up, I see the Pac 12 getting most of the Big 12 into their conference. Just not the powers that everyone is expecting. The Pac 12 needs to get into a new time zone more then it needs top programs.
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A little history, Louisville and Memphis were discussed in the SWC expansion talks before the conference disentegrated.
And as a Chicago guy, Frank-what do you think about Northern Illinois as a #12? Especially if they had several years advance notice. Could they step it up?
Colorado St. would be well down the list, but I’m not sure they wouldn’t be ahead of UNLV. At least they have had football success at some point in their history.
Houston doesn’t add much value, but they have proven they can compete at the top level. They won the SWC 3 of the 1st 4 years they were there and were a basketball powerhouse, as well as in track and golf. Unfortunately for them, they ticked off their fan base with some policies in the late 80s and made some bad coaching decisions and dropped from #3 in the SWC to #5 and out of luck.
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As an NIU alum/fan I can tell you NIU couldn’t pull that off within 5-7 years. They’re only now scraping together the funds for an indoor practice facility. They’d also need some stadium upgrades.
The NIU athletic budget is in line with the rest of the MAC. Not sure how they’d pull together the extra millions per year (pre-major conference TV revenue) to be a credible option without several more years of growth and improvement.
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Pingback: Texas A&M Leaving Big 12 - Page 235 - CycloneFanatic
Not sure if TV would demand a 10th team. Presumably they could cut the payment by 10/9 (keeping per team $ the same) whil figuring out something to do w/ the inventory (since A&M is gone, the avg game is less valuable, so possibly they basically take over ALL the inventory, including 3rd tier, but keep per team $$$ the same).
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Doesn’t anybody think that Texas recruiting would be at least a little bit enticing as a reason for Notre Dame to join the Big 12?
I know moving to the Big 12 wouldn’t be a move for money, but I would think that having a 40-50% chance of winning a conference title most years combined with the Texas recruiting would have to make them think twice.
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Notre Dame doesn’t need to be in the Big XII to play in Texas. They can schedule a game there any time they want.
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ND doesn’t care about winning conference titles. Just ask them or their alumni.
As for recruiting, ND already recruits everywhere. They aren’t going to beat UT for many kids if they are in the same conference. Part of ND’s allure is that they offer something different from the local power school.
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This UH discussion triggered a memory. A lot of this discussion is not new. From Petersen’s 1993 College Football-Southwest Conference— on the Hot Seat:
1. Texas QB (sounds familiar)
2. The private schools. Texas (Big 10 or Pac 10) and Texas A&M (SEC) likely will leave the SWC by 1994 barring a miracle–and likely will take Texas Tech (Pac 10) and Houston (SEC) with them. The private schools must gussie themselves up and look attractive for a merger of what’s left of the Big 8 after Colorado and Missouri defect.
They also missed a little on their hot seat for the Big 8. #3 was Kansas St. coach Bill Snyder.
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I totally agree with Frank about ND- until the bitter end will they ever join a conference and only then because the structure itself shifts. I would also say that BYU and Texas eventually, are also in that unique kind of category – BYU because it is a one in the nation type school whose mission is the book first and sports second, and UT, who believes that it is also in that one in a nation type club and there are some very serious points that they can make in support of that- primarily a gigantic, only moderately divided fanbase state and checkbook as a result. The military academies are also unique in and of themselves and they also have a priority mission other than athletics. So, any conference that hinges their breakout or survival based on UT, ND, BYU, AFA, Navy or Army is really rolling the dice on all sorts of levels. UT and ND would eventually go with the structure shift because they will not tank their universities no matter how much they hate it; BYU- unless anyone on here is true LDS, don’t bother commenting unless it is about the $ to further their mission. True LDS are as tough as pliars to ripped finger nails; and the military academies- like the movie A Few Good Men- unless you are willing to pick up a gun and man a post- we all know how that turns out. The point here is that the framework is shifting in collegiate athletics and those schools that refuse to acknowledge that fact are operating at their own peril because there are not an infinite number of slots in the future big league. Anyone that has been employed through a corporate merger or two knows the drill and how it works and why, and this isn’t any different.
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Great Job, Frank, explaining the ND view of the situation.
My question is why U of L, a basketball school, would leave the country’s #1 hoops conference for Texas & Friends? I forgot, how much better is Big XII-2 money vs. the Big East?
On the other hand, *if* they did leave, the Big East remains at the more manageable 16hoop/8football size…
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I can’t see UL leaving for the Big 12…
I live 70 miles from Louisville, Louisville does not consider itself “southern” in the same sence that UK does. It is much more midwestern in it’s outlook. It is not a good fir the the 12, nor is the 12 a good fit for UL.
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The Big XII is a merging of the Midwest and Southwest. If Louisville considers itself midwest, then it joining would make 5 Midwest schools and 5 Southwest schools.
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The “Who should the Texas Ten add after A&M leaves?” question is likely the most surreal ever contemplated on this blog. For every other expansion, we can guess the goal. For this one, I have no idea what the goal is:
-Markets/popularity? (-> BYU)
-Political firepower? (-> Houston)
-Football credibility? (-> TCU, BYU)
-Basketball? (-> Louisville)
-Better access to hookers? (-> UNLV)
-Mike Lockesly? (-> New Mexico)
Also, I will laugh hysterically if the Big East collapses the moment TCU enters.
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Not rooting for it, but it would admittidly be very funny to see Big East football collapse before they even enter. TCU has had some luck with conferences.
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I’m kind of torn here. I was really trying to force myself to get pumped about going to the Big East, but if the Big 12 called … hmm. A bit more money, plus old-school rivalries, but what kind of long-term guarantees are we looking at? If it folds, will the Big East take TCU back?
My guess is the Big 12 takes the ‘Ville and spoils TCU’s new home before we can even get moved in. Some of my fellow Frog brethren are more optimistic, but experience has taught me that when the conference realignment dominoes start to tumble, the last one falls on Fort Worth.
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Good stuff as always, Frank. Interesting comments about UNLV. The Rebs have reeeeeealy blown it over the last couple of decades by being so poor in football. They’d be a coveted program if they had any cache on the field.
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Thought this article was interesting:
http://www.chron.com/sports/justice/article/Justice-UT-A-amp-M-engage-in-silly-blame-game-2142060.php
I think the UT quote back when this first broke was telling. Basically they said they had no idea what was happening, but if the Aggies left, they wished them well. A&M also did this while their AD (who is top flight) was in Europe. The Aggie administration seems determined to do this and isn’t interested in discussing it with anyone,even their own AD.
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You honestly think Bill Byrne was not aware of this move or didn’t have any input? News flash but despite some conventional wisdom stating otherwise, Byrne 100% supports the move. He understands the incredible opportunity the SEC presents to A&M in the way of stability and brand.
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I think most/all(?) of the members of the Big East would jump ship to the Big 12. Who among Cin, UConn, UofL, Pitt, RU, USF, SU, TCU or WVU wouldn’t leave the Big East for a greater payday, now?
After all, if CFB does go to four 16 member Super Conferences, we know that the Big Ten, Pac 1# & SEC will be three of the four. As for the fourth, I’d guess that the ACC would get the nod over the Big 12, especially since they could grab Big East members to get back up to 16.
The remnants of the Big East & Big 12 (w/ the best of the Non-AQs) may end up being the Red-Headed Step-Child Conference. That is, a conglomeration of the rest of the former BCS schools, with the best opportunity to sneak into the BCS Party.
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I disagree that any of the Big East members would go to the Big 12. If Texas was firmly committed, then maybe. But Texas is not firmly committed.
Even then, the only reason that any schools would consider the Big 12 is because of concern about the Big East’s viability. But if the Big 12 is still stable, then that means conference armageddon has not started.
I think that the Big East’s most vulnerable team is WVU because it does not appear that the Big 10 would even consider the Mountaineers. That means that their future is ACC or bust if the Big East collapsed. In contrast, there are at least arguments as to whether the Big 10 would want any of Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, and UConn. And the ACC could want any of them too. So that is a better negotiating position in 16-team conference world.
Just not buying Louisville.
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I honestly can not see ANY Big East team jump to the Big 12-2. To the SEC yes, to the BIG 10 yes and with little hesitation. However it is very improbable that any BE schools will be invited to those conferences. The Big 12-2 is in no way attractive except for Kansas and perhaps Missouri. Those are attractive for basketball which is still concern numero ono for the BE.
It can also be said that Notre Dame would prefer death to conference affiliation. I have two cousins who graduated from ND about 25 years ago and that is all they have talked about in the passing decades. Ask them about the economy, international policy, physics, string theory, their family, business, their favorite book, music or the sport of curling and within 30 seconds the conversation turns to ND. I for one would like to see ND disappear from the surface of the earth. But if it happens they will do so as an independent.
Houston to the Big 12-2 makes sense and so will not happen, BYU should have a lock on any league except the PAC12 but is infatuated with independence and will try it for a few years at least. One LDS member who graduated from BYU and works with me commented: “Only a fool would book passage on a sinking ship.” I don’t know if that is how the BYU community or their administration feel but I thought it was a good quote.
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@Red R – I could see why BE members would pass up a Big 12 invite, but I don’t see how BYU could do it. Ultimately, AQ status matters to them a lot. The Pac-12 would never invite them and the BE is a bad geographic fit, so really the only chance that they have to become an AQ school is to join the Big 12 or, if that league collapses, be aligned with whatever league UT and/or OU is a part of.
The bottom line is that BYU can always become an independent again if the Big 12 collapses or they end up hating UT. However, they may never get a chance to join an AQ league ever again if they pass an opportunity like this up.
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except that the most likely landing place for OU and Texas is the Pac-12. As you state, they will never invite BYU so they gain nothing by aligning with OU/UT.
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“So, this move is NOT about the SEC being able to reopen its television deal in order to gain more money than what the United States currently has on hand to pay Social Security checks (as so many people have assumed). ” … if any of you believe this anonymous SEC official, I have a nice cash-out refi I’d loke to broker for you.
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I doubt many really believe it but the B1G blinders for most on this site make this an easy idea to accept.
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Actually, it seems that almost all SEC & TAMU folks want to believe what they want to hear to an even greater extent. I can certainly see why the SEC would want TAMU even if there is no significant increase in the current TV contract.
You have to remember that conference expansion for leagues like the B10 and SEC is a decision for the next 50 years, not just the next decade, and TAMU adds significant value to the SEC longterm because
1. It sets up the SEC for an absolutely massive TV deal next go-around.
2. It opens up Texas recruiting to the SEC.
Ask yourself this: why would an anonymous SEC official tell Thamel what he did unless it was actually true? I can believe anonymous leaks are false when they better the position of the leaker. No one is incented to release a false leak that actually weakens their position. That Thamel would just make shit up, given that he has no dog in the fight, is an even more ludicrous idea.
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We don’t even know who that SEC official is (hence the anonymous). For all we know it could be some excutive that doesn’t have first hand knowledge of how the tv contracts are laid out.
Now ask your self this, why would the CBS Sports chairman state that once the SEC expands, they will sit back down with the SEC and renegotiate the contracts? He is not an anonymous source and being the CBS sports chairman, I’m betting he knows exactly what CBS is willing to do.
http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/colleges/2011/08/cbs-sports-chairman-says-he-does-not-envision-sec-expansion-in-the-very-near-future.html
Now, I’m not saying that we will get the rumored $30-$40 mil that everyone is talking about, but I bet we get back up there with the B1G & Pac 12.
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McManus did not say they will “renegotiate the SEC contracts.”
He did say: “When there is expansion, we’ll sit down and talk to the SEC,” McManus said. “If something materially changes in the conference, we’ll sit down and talk to them. But I don’t anticipate that happening in the very near future.”
They’ll talk. We have seen reports that even expansion is not a renegotiation but a look-in, and that the look-in is distinctly not a renegotiation. Which may mean they don’t go up, it could mean they remain revenue-neutral. They may go up. We’ll see. Or maybe we won’t find out.
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Anyone remember what happened with UNL joining B1G? Was that disclosed? There was the additional for the title game, but what about the regular season?
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Bullet:
Terms were not disclosed. Delany said there was a small increase. Possibly enough to make it revenue-neutral, though I have a feeling that it wasn’t even that since the B10 got more favorable terms in being able to show BTN games during the afternoon window, so that seems to be like a “well, OK, you won’t budge on the monetary amounts so why don’t you let us show BTN games in the afternoon instead” type of deal.
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Bama:
If the official was giving information that weakened the SEC’s position (which the information does), of course he’d want to remain anonymous. Put yourself in that SEC official’s shoes. If he wasn’t in a position to know what would happen in the TV negotiations, would he tell a reporter something that would weaken the SEC’s position? I would say “I have no idea”.
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Why add TAMU now, though, especially given the domino effects involved?
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I think the main problem that the Big 12 is going to have is convincing schools that they’ll be around for the long term.
The conference is barely a decade and a half old and losing two of the most valuable schools in the conference, and we all know how the SWC broke up…
BYU owns the WCC now, and already has its own TV network and all of that. They have a good regional brand, and in a similar way to Notre Dame’s focus on other things besides pure $, they’re focused on spreading Mormonism, etc.
Even though I think BYU is the perfect replacement for Texas A&M, I’m not sure they’ll jump at this.
Same goes for Louisville or TCU if they think there’s a chance the Big 12 implodes within 5 years.
It’s going to be an extremely risky proposition for these schools to join a conference that only has a 5-10 year proposed lifespan with Oklahoma surely checking out their options, and Texas seemingly preparing for independence or quasi-independence (of course there’s the matter of the rest of the non-football sports, but that can be worked out…)
The question is whether the monetary benefits outweigh the long-term stability argument. I just don’t think many administrators will see that given that you don’t want to enter a situation where you could eventually be left out in the cold if Texas/Oklahoma go elsewhere.
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Anyone who thinks Texas wants independence has NEVER listened to any of TPTB at UT speak. That is clearly the last option. Texas wants the Big 12 to succeed. The question is whether OU is still committed. I have no doubt OU has been talking to other conferences, but the question is whether that is normal and necessary contingency planning or if they are beginning to have doubts.
Also, LHN is not really as big a barrier to joining another conference as many make it out to be. Texas isn’t opposed to sharing 3rd tier rights. They’re opposed to giving away school assets for nothing (to paraphrase Dodds last summer). If there’s value in a shared network to UT, the details can be worked out between the relevant conference, UT and ESPN. It would really fit in pretty well with the Pac 12 model.
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Well yes, I didn’t mean to imply that Texas would seek independence or quasi-independence first.
Texas has 3 options right now:
1) Big 12 succeeds with Texas + Oklahoma as the base.
2) Big 12 fails because Oklahoma leaves, so Texas probably works out a deal to join the Pac-12 (or Big Ten) with the LHN intact in some form.
3) Big 12 fails because Oklahoma leaves, so Texas works out an independent strategy and figures out a place to land its other teams.
I don’t think for a minute that Texas wants independence because it has no “Big East independence option” that ND has right now in terms of a geographically close BCS conference in which to park its non-football sports. If it did, I think the independent option would be much more palatable to Texas.
The problem that Texas faces, even though it has the most cards in its hand, is that the Pac-12 and Big Ten may not be willing to work out arrangements for the LHN in which case it ends up having to pursue an independence option if Oklahoma leaves.
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I think independence is a real option for Texas. Why? There are quite a few teams that would schedule UT as a non-conference game (That would include Baylor, Rice, Houston, SMU, Texas Tech & UTEP). Add Notre Dame, Oklahoma & A&M, and they are well on their way. The Big 10 does not work, because of UT Baseball (A great program in an awful Conference), and perhaps more importantly, Bevo’s ego would not allow it (Can you see them in a Conference where Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Nebraska share equally with Minnesota & Indiana?). The Pac would be ok, but do you think that UT would prefer a road game at Waco against Baylor or Pullman against Washington State?
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If you take anything anyone in an official position says at face value I have a bridge to sell you.
This may make you change your tune:
http://outkickthecoverage.com/espn-texas-contract-for-longhorn-network.php
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bullet,
I would slightly adjust your statement, “Texas wants the Big 12 to succeed.”
I’d say UT wants the B12 to succeed on UT’s terms. If they really wanted the B12 to succeed, they wouldn’t continue to rile up TAMU and others with the LHN and such. They are acting like a teenager, continually testing the boundaries to see how much they can get away with. That’s not the approach you take if you really value your conference.
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I’m an outsider looking in, but I really think the whole “Longhorn Network” is just the straw that broke the camel’s back. The thing everyone else is angry about is the fact that the conference has no real ties to each other. It’s not the Big Eight, it’s not the SWC. There’s no quarter given; everyone is left for the wolves.
I don’t really think we’re going to see four “super-conferences”. Only two really have the means (the SEC and the Big Ten); the PAC-12 really doesn’t want anyone outside of Oklahoma and Texas, and it’s mostly Texas. Even if raided, the ACC might just stay at twelve. The Big East is the wild card here: they’re desperate for football relevance, and there was a rumor that they would’ve taken Kansas, KSU, ISU, and Missouri if that the Big XII fell apart. That’s thirteen, or not, depending on how (if?) they survive being raided by the ACC/SEC/Big Ten.
What no one seems to be talking about is the MWC. If the Big XII does fall apart, they’ll be clamoring for the vacant AQ spot, and with “not-for-profit” Bowls coming under scrutiny and an election year coming up, I’m sure we’ll be hearing Orrin Hatch bitch about the BCS again.
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There aren’t a set number of AQ spots. Every so often the BCS evaluates the conferences to see who “deserves” one. If the B12 went away, it’s AQ slot would go with it.
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@Brian – That doesn’t invalidate what I said.
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Yes it does, in that there would be no “vacant AQ spot.” The MWC will be begging to get the exemption for the last 2 years of the current BCS deal anyway, so the B12 going away would have no impact there. The MWC will have the numbers in 2 of 3 categories to get AQ status, and are close enough in the third that they can petition to get it. The question is whether the BCS committee looks at the recent changes in MWC membership and uses that to deny their petition. Right now the MWC has better numbers than the BE and about equal to the ACC.
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There would be a perception of a “vacant AQ spot”, though.
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Who would have that perception?
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I’m not going to look it up and my memory may be wrong, but I seem to recall the discussion last year being 1 OR 2 football games and HS games being considered. I think its more likely that A&M, etc. didn’t think the LHN would be worth anywhere near $15 million a year and just didn’t pay attention. I certainly didn’t think it would be worth that much. And it may be the ESPN connection that has stirred people up. Certainly the ESPN exec who talked about highlighting Texas recruits stirred people up (and justifiably). In any event, I thoroughly disagree with your perception that Texas is continually testing the boundaries. I don’t think there’s anything new here.
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I think the issue with BYU is whether the Big 12 views their no Sunday play as too much of a burden on the Big 12 non-rev student athletes. Not sure how much all those sports play on Sundays. Its not an issue in fb or bb. It would be sports like baseball, tennis, track, golf that might be impacted.
BYU has done independence once. There’s no reason they couldn’t do it again. The WCC or WAC wouldn’t hold it against them for joining an AQ league. Its not like they’re going back to the MWC.
Louisville is the school that would worry about the stability issue. But the BE might have a bigger stability issue than the Big 12. And having lost the 3 traditionally weakest bb programs, the B12 is going to be a very tough bb league. Louisville wouldn’t have to worry about taking a big step down in bb.
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Yeah, with BYU, I just meant to say that $ isn’t their first and most important consideration. But joining an AQ league might be and outweigh the negative aspect of stability of the Big 12.
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Bullet
The Cards are dominated by Rick Pitino. If you look at any of his statements concerning conference expansion or realignment in the past year you will see that he is fanatically committed to the Big East. Of course Rick does not completely run the UofL but he comes damned close to doing so. I think BYU is very much an outside shot but as Frank wrote they have been independent before and they could try the Big 12-3 for a year or two and then go indy if they wished to. Of course there would be an exit penalty and fees.
I think the future of the Big 12-3 depends entirely on Texas. Should they eliminate the LHN and devise a more equitable revenue sharing plan the Big 12-3 may survive. But since it depends on the generosity of Bevo I would say don’t bet the farm. I like Houston as a replacement for A&M however it makes way too much sense for UT to agree to it. Then there is the matter of Houston’s oft delayed stadium construction.
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True. Particularly when they aren’t going to be around for the long term. UT will do exactly what it always does, whatever is in the best interests of UT. That means, eventually, the B12 will die. It took a major blow last year with the loss of NE and CO and is taking another major blow this year with the loss of A&M. The B12 has zero stability and any program that joins the B12 at this point will be joining with that understanding.
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All schools do what is in their best interest long term and that makes all conferences unstable to an extent. If the Big Ten increases to 20 and it becomes clearly in the bigger schools interest to leave and form a conference, they’ll do it and leave 100 years of history. For the forseeable future though, Texas interest is for a stable and successful Big 12 (as it is for Oklahoma) and there is little reason to assume the conference isn’t as stable as the Big East or more so in my opinion.
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The stability of the Big 10 is due to:
a)The differences between the schools aren’t as big
b)Shared regional (midwest) culture
c)been together mostly for 100 years
d)CIC
The SEC has a,b,c although a is starting to change. The MS schools are falling behind. GA and FL are growing. That could impact the long term stability of the SEC, especially if it continues to expand.
Pac 12 has shared west coast culture and been together and most importantly, they are geographically isolated.
The other 3 AQ conferences don’t really have those characteristics. The Big 12 particularly lacks a and c. The BE lacks b and c. The ACC used to have a,b,c to some extent, but expansion has weakened their cohesion in all those areas. 5 of the 12 were not founding members.
More likely than not, the Big 12 will be around a long time. Its in the best interests of the remaining 9 to stick together (5-7 have nowhere else to go). As Eric says, all schools do what they believe is in their best interests. And the haves already have made some concession. They are sharing 3/4 of the TV revenue instead of only half.
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Bullet – just to let you know, while I agree that the Mississippi schools will always be behind the other public SEC schools, Miss State has plans to expand Scott Field to 65,000 by filling in an endzone with premium seating. Ole Miss has also announced a capital campaign to increase their stadium to 70,000 by filling in an endzone with premium seating. Ole Miss also plans to build a new basketball venue.
Also, while it will probably never come close to the CIC, the SEC started the SECAC in 2005.
http://www.secdigitalnetwork.com/SECSPORTS/THESEC/AcademicConsortium.aspx
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BYU will jump at this because BYU does not want to be left out if the Super Conference Era starts. BYU get left out of the Bowl Alliance, Bowl Coalition, and BCS. It will happily jump to the Big 12 since the Pac-12 will never come calling. It will keep its relationship with ESPN and its separate contract.
Of course, the Big 12 should have invited BYU and TCU back in January to stabilize the conference and not be on the verge of failure, but hey, it is the Bevo 10 after all…..
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The reality of the matter is after 100 years UT has essentially left A&M behind, and the Aggies know it (They did it years ago with TCU, SMU, Rice, Houston and the SWC, and are doing it again). There are four reasons they must get out now. First off, the biggest UT rival is Oklahoma not A&M (Arkansas is doing pretty well without Bevo, and so can A&M). Next UT will be getting a train load of $$$$$$ with the Longhorn Network (Essentially leaving the Aggies to be on a Baylor level in the future). Third, they know there are a whole bunch of schools (SMU, Houston, Rice, UTEP and Baylor come to mind), who will essentially sell their souls to Bevo and the Longhorn Network, just to get ahead. Fourth, and most important A&M would become the New Nebraska, losing their main rival (Like they did with Oklahoma), and on major issues, being outvoted 9-1 (Or worse, if schools like SMU are added). So essentially they did what Nebraska did….. Got out when they had the chance. I am 100% on A&M’s side and as a Penn State I can be objective about it.
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With the PUF eclipsing the LHN to the tune of Billions of dollars here in Texas, UT would not have the ability to leave A&M at a tiny private Baptist school level like Baylor when A&M is a Public University in Texas mandated by the Texas Constitution.
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Frank, Frank, Frank,
I keep telling you think like the other guy if you want to win long term. I will put up another response to your possible teams, but first let me do the TAMU / SEC / CBS / ESPN thing. I mentioned on the other thread that interviewing the NYC Lawyer / Consultant for the B12 in the NYT gave an impression that may not be the reality. The same with the assistant AD at Vandy saying Vandy did not want TAMU. Maybe these two things are true, but maybe it is someone on the other side who now realizes their opponent has already won the war.
Early on I said the chess match is between Delany and Slive, with Scott now closing the gap. The B1G and SEC values are much greater than anything the LHN could ever hope to put together. When you step back and look at the total picture it is the cold war all over again with the following players:
B1G = USA
SEC = USSR
LHN = Spain
PAC = China
Sure any of the 3 superpowers would like to have Spain on their side, but Spain has no real power in the grand scheme no matter how important Spain thinks they are to one of the superpowers. Maybe I am just the slow coach on the short bus, but even I can see some handwriting on the wall. Sure UVA has a football team, and they have academics, but in the move to the Big 3 plus “scraps” will they go the way Harvard and Yale did? Will they become another Chicago that just drops football?
If TAMU winds up in the SEC that is opportunity lost for the B1G! Maybe it means the contract gets “adjusted” and maybe not, but until a lawyer for the SEC or CBS / ESPN says it on the record I am willing to allow that they know more than I do. I do know that some folks nationally are doing spin control now that it “appears” that TAMU will be severing roots with UT! This leads me to believe the 16 team conference is now a real issue! Granted I thought Scott would be first to break 13, but I have said all along that once a team adds 13, all bets are off, and we are looking at a new football world. Only the predators (B1G / PAC / SEC) have a assured spot, and then you just get to who gets culled from the herd. Right now the football value of the ACC is FSU and VT, how long till these 2 decide to live in a pack of predators (even if they are not the alpha) than to know they will be in a downward spiral of prey.
Indiana and Illinois may not be the B1G alpha hunters in the conference, but at least we are able to feast on the kills made by the pack as a whole. Since all of us have common breed roots the B1G and SEC have the most shared DNA. The ACC and BE have to many divergent bloodlines to create the same pack unity, and short of UT and ND getting them to 16, they are already dead man walking. I have tried multiple additions to the ACC, and none get you the football values of the Big 3. If a 4th conference “emerges” it may have ACC flavor, but it will not look like the current ACC. As for the B12, once you get past UT, OU, and TAMU what other value is left? Kansas found out the hard way what their basketball value was worth, and Missouri found out that there is a big gap between the A list, and the B list when it comes to who gets invited to join the best club in town.
Again, not to be the grumpy old guy, but what is the grand plan for the B1G? What is the next move by Delany? If TAMU is gone, UT is crazy, and ND is ND. If Delany added only 1 team, and it was not UT or ND, who would it be? and why?
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B1G=USA
SEC=CHINA
PAC=INDIA
LHN=ESPaNosa
Hey, this is fun!
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GLS,
I am an old guy and remember the cold war, but I think I like yours better!
China and India taking the jobs, and Spain is still not a threat.
Well done indeed!
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My man, I just hopped on your wave. You’re the big Kahuna!
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If Delany had to get to 14 without ND, I think he’d prefer Oklahoma + Missouri.
That’s just in my opinion.
Maybe the presidents wouldn’t go for it on academics, but if Delany had a choice, Oklahoma + Missouri would be option #1 if Notre Dame said a “permanent no” and Texas was totally off the table as well.
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I agree, because that would all but insure Texas and ND would be 15 & 16. To much tradition and rivalry to pass up.
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The presidents aren’t going to aloow JD to add two schools that would be 12th and 14th(by a large margin) academically. Isn’t going to happen.
I think JD does nothing for a couple of years, and sees if anything shakes out with TX and ND. After that time, and assuming TX and ND aren’t ready to move, the BIG MIGHT add Rutgers/Pitt and MO. That would put the BIG in decent position to someday add ND and/or TX if the landscape changes. Pitt would appeal to ND and the presidents, MO to TX(and Neb, Iowa, IU, and ILL). On the other hand, Rutgers would appeal more to JD because of BTN.
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I agree with that, but I do think Delany would prefer Oklahoma/Missouri if he had to go to 14 without ND or Texas.
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Pitt. Expansion for the sake of expansion!
The idea that the B10 is going to divy up one of their last four slices of pie to a college that doesn’t bring their cut in value is what’s not going to happen. The Big Ten will shelve expansion all together before they add Pitt.
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I agree, no Pitt. Now, after thinking about things, I can’t see any Big East Schools being effected by any of this. I think, if this does go down, the 4 major conf sitting at the grown-ups table are-Big Ten, SEC, Pac 12 and the Big East. Acc has to many schools that are more attractive then the Big East as does the Big 12. My original thought was the ACC would be protected by the SEC but now I’m not so sure. If the Big Ten and the SEC get into a pissing match, they are going to go for universities that will add the most to their exposure, not lessen it. (Not saying there are many out there that will.) That is why I feel the Big East is safe. They will sit back, let the alpha males fight it out, and clean up whats left knowing that there will be (Compared to what they have now) power programs to snatch up that will be happy to join so they stay in an AQ league.
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Pitt will get no invite. ND will never move. Rutgers is AAU but has no real football program. Maryland is the best the B10 can get in the northeast, and it is not a bad add. Some months ago on a sports radio station in Columbus, OH (the armpit of the Midwest) I heard the OSU assistant AD mention Georgia Tech but I suspect he was blowing smoke. Really the B10 has no need to expand as there is not much available that is worthwhile and ND will not respond except with courteous disdain. IMHO the SEC would be wise to take FSU. Not because they need FSU but to keep them away from the B10. I have read that the B10 would like to expand it’s footprint to Florida and Texas. Of course I may have read it in one of the ESPN blog’s and it may or may not be true as FSU is on the same academic level as a below average junior college and only slightly above the U of Phoenix. That still means something to the B10 Presidents, even though it is without interest to the football supporters.
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RedR:
Ouch! That’s a little harsh and not really true. FSU is in the 70-89 tier of the ARWU rankings, which is below all the original B10 schools, but in the same tier as Nebraska (and VTech) and above KU, Mizzou, and OU.
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Duffman, I think you are right in noticing the correlation between the highly valued conferences, SEC and B1G and their DNA – or I would say brand identity. The interesting thing for the B1G is that there are just not enough top 100 ARWU ranked land grant schools in great lakes states to get to the magic number of 16. That said, to get to 16 Delany is going to have to somewhat redefine the brand, but has he does it he is messing with the ultimate value source. Very, very interesting.
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Duffman,
Assuming TAMU goes to the SEC, then obviously the SEC will go to 14. Beyond that, I don’t think that conference armageddon is assured. If the SEC stops at 14, and I think they will, I don’t expect the B10 to react unless ND, UT or maybe OU asks to join. Nobody else brings enough value (financial, academic and cultural fit) to make it worth going to 14.
If:
1. the SEC also takes MO, and
2. that leads OU to look elsewhere,
then the B10 would talk to UT and maybe OU.
If:
1. the SEC takes VT or FSU, and
2. that leads the ACC core to start looking around rather than just stealing a BE team,
then the B10 would talk to UVA, MD, UNC and Duke.
Outside of those scenarios, I don’t see the presidents choosing to expand. They won’t do it just because the SEC does. Look how long they chose to stay at 11, outside of talking with ND every 5 years or so. The COP/C is very picky about new members.
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However, Brian, the BTN wasn’t around the vast majority of the time the league was a 10 or 11 school league. There’s a strong incentive now to expand in to growing states that didn’t exist before.
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There was a strong incentive to get to 12 and get CCG money, too, and they didn’t care. The COP/C are not money obsessed about sports like CEOs. They have other concerns.
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Brian,
I think you’ll see the SEC hold fast at 13 for the short-term, say 2-3 years. They accomplished the primary goal of both the B1G and the SEC – get into the Texas market. I think both would prefer Texas but the SEC knew a marriage with Texas was not in the cards so it pursued and landed the next best (and only good) option. The focus for the SEC will shift to the mid-South with the obvious targets being some combination of North Carolina, UVa or VaTech.
The B1G can wait to see how things shake out with Texas and the LHN.
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Based upon my knowledge of ACC members, Frank, your best bet is to go with the Gobblers. UNC and UVa wouldn’t feel culturally comfortable in the SEC; Tech would.
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Frank,
They may very well temporarily stick at 13, but they will go to 14. That’s all I said. 13 will not be their permanent stopping point.
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The Detroit lions
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Duff:
I’m coming around to your idea that UNC may follow NCSU to the SEC (reluctantly), because the B10 probably would not spend a precious spot on NCSU, and getting both the B10 and SEC to take both Carolina schools at the same time would be near impossible. Likewise, both Virginia schools are almost certainly going together (to the B10, IMHO, because both value academics too much to prefer the SEC). UNC-UVa would have to continue as an OOC game (which actually isn’t a big deal for those schools since they don’t have the big stadiums that dictate 7 home games a year; their stadiums are close to the size of PU’s). I think that if the ACC falls apart (possible with an SEC raid and a Miami TV ban or death penalty; I could see FSU getting offers from both the SEC and B10), ND would join the B10 if the B10 takes BC and GTech as well as Maryland, VTech, and UVa. The SEC wouldn’t want Miami, and I could see the B10 taking the U even with sanctions just because S. Florida is so fertile for recruiting (and filled with people from B10 country). That leaves FSU. I think that with Miami & GTech in the fold, FSU would opt for the conference with the stronger academics and lacks the reputation for dirtier recruiting. With FSU, Miami, and GTech, the BTN likely gets state-wide penetration in both FL and GA (the B10 would prefer taking UF and UGa, but that doesn’t seem likely unless a death penalty or 2 are handed out to other SEC teams). That leaves Clemson, UNC, & NCSU joining TAMU for the SEC, which wouldn’t be a bad haul.
So VTech, UVa, and Maryland (in the SE division) and FSU, GTech, and BC (in the NW division) join in 2013 to form an 18-team conference for 2 years. ND and Miami join in 2015 (just in time for TV negotiations!) with the following pod structure:
Pod I:
PSU, ND, BC, GTech, Maryland
Pod II:
Michigan, OSU, MSU, PU, IU
Pod III:
Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Minny
Pod IV:
Nebraska, FSU, Miami, VTech, UVa
Each pod joins with a neighboring pod half the time to form a division (yes, when Pods I & IV form up, that would be a brutal division). Michigan-Minny play OOC half the time for the LBJ. Maryland-UVa also play OOC half the time. OSU-PSU may play OOC often as well (OSU would want PSU to become the highlight OOC game most years when they’re not on the conference slate, but PSU may judge their schedule too brutal).
Duke and WFU go to the BE.
Big10 hockey adds ND and BC, drawing more interest in the NE.
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Boston College’s value is way overrated in these scenarios. It’s a relatively small private institution, not known for research, and really hasn’t added much to the ACC since its entrance in 2005 (maybe it would have in partnership with Syracuse, but we’ll never know). And the much-hyped “Boston TV market” has never had much interest in college sports. Thinking the Big Ten would be interested in BC because of its hockey is comparable to thinking it would pursue SU chiefly because of lacrosse.
And if Notre Dame told the Big Ten it would enter the conference only if it could select a partner of its own choosing — take it or leave it — the presidents would reject ND immediately; that’s not how the Big Ten works.
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The Big 10 isn’t really significantly different than anyone else. Its about $. Notre Dame isn’t AAU, but that’s the school they most want. If ND said we’re coming but we need a partner and the partner was any geographically acceptable AAU school, the Big 10 would say yes. If it was Iowa St. they would ask, “Why Iowa St.???????????” But they would still probably say yes. I’m sure Syracuse and BC would get a yes as well. Now if it was WVU or Louisville or Cincinnati that would be a different story.
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@vp19 – I think BC is underrated by fans about how much it is overrated by TV networks (if that makes sense), and that gives the school more value than what its actual attributes (size of fan base, attendance, etc.) would indicate. If the conference commissioners were to hold a realignment draft, BC would go way higher than the average fan would take them. BC is actually a relatively strong TV school nationally (a lower rent version of Miami). They’re not a headliner by themselves, but pairing BC with any of the traditional powers (PSU, OSU, Michigan, Nebraska) is an extremely attractive TV matchup. That’s basically the next best thing other than adding a legit football power. I don’t think that the Big Ten would take BC alone, but if ND said that they wanted BC to come with them, then I don’t see the presidents putting up any objection to them.
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I’ll ignore the silliness of your 20 team B10 in 4 years and just comment on a couple of details.
1. MI isn’t going to play MN OOC for the sake of the LBJ. Maybe if MN agreed to always play at MI (which they wouldn’t), but MI isn’t going to forsake home games to play at MN for the LBJ.
2. OSU would most definitely NOT “want PSU to become the highlight OOC game most years when they’re not on the conference slate.” The only reason to sacrifice the home games for a home and home is to get exposure in other areas and bring in different teams. OSU isn’t going to waste that on a PSU team they play regularly anyway.
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Well, in a Big20, OSU would get exposure in different areas of the country and play powerhouse teams from other regions already anyway, so I’m not so sure that OSU wouldn’t want PSU as their highlight OOC series most years when they’re off the conference slate. They could still schedule other powerhouse schools the other half of the time.
As for the LBJ, what you say makes sense, but Michiganders seem to be most in favor of playing other B10 schools, and their fanbase felt so strongly about playing other B10 teams more often that their AD was in favor of 9 conference games even though that would generate less ticket revenues for UM, so *shrug*, who knows?
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Richard,
OSU isn’t going to use OOC games on conference teams. If they want to play a 10th big name team, it’ll be a team like USC, UT, AL, etc, not PSU. Those are games that would get them exposure in new regions and be TV blockbusters.
MI supported 9 B10 games, but the fans aren’t going to support playing MN every year OOC instead of a national opponent or all home games. It’s not really any different than playing another MAC opponent, and they would give up home games for that? I don’t think so.
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The LBJ neutral site? Too bad Soldier Field is so small (and I doubt Minny would agree to Ford Field as a neutral site, though you never know).
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Who would pay big money for MI/MN? Neutral site games need big names to justify the payout.
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Shouldn’t the Big 10 be USSR because its equal revenue distribution is closer to pure socialism? Minnesota gets the same cut as Ohio St.
And then the SEC can be China because its mostly equal revenue distribution is kind of like the current China…. socialism/communism with a touch of capitalism to the extent that some “companies” are getting very very wealthy… which is similar to the SEC’s equal revenue distribution with a touch of capitalism based on the 3rd tier rights providing some basis for individual programs to get a slight edge.
And then you have the Big 12 being USA… with its capitalistic sharing of some money, but not sharing equally based on some takers being worth much more than those who contribute less. The rich folks (Texas) will give a little bit of their success to keep the poor folks (Iowa St.) afloat, but their first priority is staying rich.
What does that make Texas A&M? I don’t know. Mexico. Mexico has its issues, but it has some natural resources (oil) that are valuable to USA. We wouldn’t want to lose them as an ally. Then again, they are not such a significant economy that losing them as an ally would be insurmountable. But at the same time, who wants to lose an adjacent ally to China or the USSR?
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Well, at least Rice got mentioned on one expansion list…
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loki,
Say TAMU jumps to the SEC, would Rice become yearly school for TAMU to play OOC? Rice is 27 – 50 – 3 all time vs TAMU. Rice is 1 – 4 vs Vanderbilt. All 3 are academic schools, and Rice could get some exposure on the SEC network footprint.
I looked up Rice vs SEC (current and former)
Alabama 3 – 0
Arkansas 29 – 35 – 3 (former SWC)
Auburn 2 – 0
Florida 4 – 3 – 1
Georgia 1 – 0
Georgia Tech 0 – 2 – 1 (former SEC)
Kentucky 0 – 2
LSU 14 – 36 – 5
Mississippi 0 – 1
Mississippi St. 0 – 1
Sewanee 2 – 0 (former SEC)
Tennessee 1 – 2
Tulane 17 – 15 – 1 (former SEC)
Vanderbilt 1 – 4
South Carolina = NP
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I think it would be hard for Rice to add aTm on a regular basis. The scheduling philosophy seems to evolving for our OOC AQ opponents to be more like sized schools. We’ll be playing the Vandy, Duke, Wake Forest, Army, Navy, Baylor, and Northwesterns of the world. Even the Texas series is scheduled only this year and 2015. Plus we need one or two winnable games so you see UT-San Antonio and the like on the next few years schedules.
Back when I was in school we played teams like Florida, Oklahoma, and LSU in the same year. But those days are gone forever. But we’ll always be undefeated against Alabama!
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Hey Frank, what about Boise as a dark horse? There’s no bigger “feel good” team out there, no non-AQ that gets more exposure. Obviously Boise is a long way from the conference footprint, but it is a growing market.
The biggest problem I see is that Boise has literally put all of their eggs in the football basket, they’re dreadful in everything else. They’d instantly be the doormat of basketball.
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Not even the Big East would want Boise State as a football-only member:
1. Small TV market
2. Lousy academics (Boise State was a 2-year school not too long ago.)
3. The AD was fired a few weeks ago in the midst of a brewing scandal
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The only schools that would WANT to be Bevo’s newest b*tch in the Longhorn Conference are non-BCS schools in the State of Texas:
1. Houston (which is building political clout in the Texas State Legislature)
2. SMU (which is begging to join, but has no political support and brings no new TV market)
Rice is already in Bevo’s H*rem (by playing the ‘Horns at Reliant Stadium) even though Rice does not belong to the Longhorn Conference.
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Big East schools such as Louisville will get a better TV deal by staying in the Big East than by joining the Longhorn Conference once Comcast (NBCUniversal) does its part to jack up the rights fee in the next contract cycle.
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BYU could have joined the Big East in football only but chose not to. The name of the game at BYU is control of TV inventory to maximize exposure for BYU.
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The problem for the Longhorn Conference isn’t A&M, but Missouri (which can be poached by the ESS EEE CEE as the 14th member, or pre-emptively by the B1G) and Kansas (which has its bags packed for the Big East.)
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UTEP is another school that would be Bevo’s bitch. The reality of the matter is Texas (With the possible exception of the International Olympic Committee) is perhaps the most destructive element in sports today. The only way UT could possibly be worse is if they made Scott Boras AD, and Jerry Jones President The most revealing thing about how bad they really are, is that A&M (Who knows UT better than anyone else (Playing them for over 100 years)), cannot wait to divorce themselves of the Longhorns.
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I guess over 100 years of being UT’s ‘bitch” would tend to make A&M a little upset, I guess I’d want a divorce too if my rival beat me mercilessly for 100 years.
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Beat mercilessly? Yes, when A&M was an all male military school. Since then, I guess “beat mercilessly is defined as winning 50% of the time.
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OT:
However, as both the SEC and B10 know that taking (a rather mediocre in all respects) Mizzou would send OU (and thus Texas) packing to the Pac, I don’t see why either conference would take Mizzou. Mizzou doesn’t raise the profile of either conference.
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Sorry, but I don’t really buy your arguments.
1. Boise is a smaller TV market (currently 112th in Neilsen), but they’re one of the fastest growing in America. And as the economy contines to deteriorate in California and Nevada the forecast is for it to only continue to grow.
2. The Big10 and the Ivy League are the only schools that care about academics, the Big 12 would not pass on Boise just because of academics. Tx Tech and Ok State are tier 3 schools, and K-State and Oklahoma are on the outside of the top 100.
3. Unless a lot more is uncovered soon, this “scandal” is pretty minor. Major infractions in tennis led to the uncovering of relatively minor infractions in football. A rogue tennis program isn’t a legitimate reason to keep them out of the Big 12.
Now I’m not saying Boise is great fit. They would be a huge georgaphic outlier and immediately be doormats in nearly every sport besides football. Even from Boise’s persepctive it wouldn’t be a perfect move, since they rely on California for recruits much more than Texas. But if you’re comparing Boise to schools like Houston, Louisville, UNLV and New Mexico I think they hold up just fine in any discussion with those schools.
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All schools care about academics, some just care more. The P12 and ACC certainly care, and the B12 and SEC do too.
As for Boise, USNWR rated them the #51 regional school in the west. TT is #159 nationally, and OkSU is #132 nationally. Boise is a regional because they don’t offer enough advanced degrees to qualify as a national university. That is hugely important to school presidents.
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Some care so little that the caring is almost non-existant. I’m quite certain that if Boise had, say, BYU’s brand and following but the same academics, the B12 would come calling.
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And again, for those of you focusing on the Big Ten’s plans in the future…
Look at Penn State and Nebraska. Football kings with mediocre basketball programs. Penn State has one of the largest alumni/population bases, but Nebraska’s is among the smallest of all the public flagships (including non-kings).
Delany is focused on Notre Dame to 14. There might be an Oklahoma (to 14) scenario that he’d want but can’t get through the COP/C. Texas seems to be a non-starter because the Big Ten isn’t going to be as flexible on the LHN as the Pac-12 might be (since they have no other good expansion options to 16 outside of Texas + Oklahoma + 2.
So for the Big Ten, barring something like Oklahoma + Missouri (to 14), I think the Big Ten waits until Notre Dame chooses to join (after Texas works out a deal to a Pac-16, which may set things in motion to force Notre Dame’s hand).
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Now, on to your list….
First of all, UNL, CU, and TAMU all share one thing in common, and that is a desire to get away from UT! I think the basis of your list is that the B12 will return to its former self. I think this is a glitter and unicorn fantasy at best. If the B12 can land a giant like ND then I have some nice swamp land to sell. Any team with reasonable respect will know that being new kid in a crazy co dependent conference can not be good long term. With this in mind, I would throw out any decent team joining the B12. Soap operas may appeal to middle age women eating bon bon’s on the sofa, but not AD’s or college presidents.
Getting that out of the way, let’s take a look at some realistic candidates to join the Big 12:
1. BYU – OUT, Mormon religion conflicts with UT ego.
2. Louisville – OUT, As a basketball school they would be foolish to think of any home outside of the BE or ACC. If the choice is to stay with the BE or jump to the B12, they stay in the BE. My long term guess is they sit in the BE and wait till the Superconference becomes a reality. A new 4th conference will be built from the scraps, and long term this would suit the Cards well. Like Miami, they have a fickle football fanbase. Unlike Miami, they do not have the MNC history to bring real value.
3. TCU – 90% OUT, Like Louisville in basketball, it is better to hang in the BE till the 4th conference is formed and make a decision then. In the mean time, they need to win the BE a few times to improve their exposure and media value.
4. Houston – IN, If they replace TAMU, the B12 is back to 10 and allows the B12 to stop bleeding. On the flip side if UH is the replacement for UNL, the days of the B12 being mentioned in the same air as the B1G or SEC are done. From then on they are more along the line of the ACC [UT + OU = FSU + VT] or CUSA
5. UNLV – ????, This one could go either way. On the list of possible schools this is one with no chance of landing a spot in the 4th “scraps” conference, so why not. 40K stadium fits the schools still left in the B12, and the thoughts of Sin City vs Baylor brings a smile to my face. Brittany will need a venue when she graduates, and Vegas is still the heavyweight when it comes to boxing matches. If Nevada continues to steal BSU’s thunder tho, they may be the the school that knocks UNLV out.
6. Air Force – OUT, I think they become the last team in a 4th conference, and can wait out the time in between where they are now. UT culture and AF culture seem like 180 degrees apart. As a military school, I am willing to bet my bottom dollar they will want a team mentality in a conference they join.
7. New Mexico – 90% IN, If you have little to offer, the insane asylum looks pretty good
8. Memphis – IN, similar to New Mexico
9/10. SMU/Rice – IN, They have been there before. Hello SWC II : Revenge of Texas
I can see this in a new Big 12 where UT or OU is the conference rep for the MNC shot where one of the remaining 10 teams has a MNC once a decade or two. UT anchors one division, and OU anchors the other
12 teams look like this:
OU DIV = OU / oSu / KU / KSU / ISU / Missouri (Sooner TV division)
UT DIV = UT / TT / BU / SMU / UH / Rice (LHN division)
16 teams look like this:
OU DIV = OU / oSu / KU / KSU / ISU / Missouri / Memphis / UNLV
UT DIV = UT / TT / BU / SMU / UH / Rice / NTU / UTEP
If the Sooners break the tie to the Longhorns, and go to the PAC and take oSu + KU + Missouri along with them, then the B12 really does see SWC II and a conference of Texas schools, with UT being granted a deal similar to ND when it comes to football.
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Colorado really wanted to stay with UT. They’ve been wanting UT to join them in the Pac ever since they joined the Big 12 and started having 2nd thoughts. UT + Pac was their ideal world. Their economy and alumni base is more west coast based. Arizona has more CU alumni than all the Big 12 states combined excluding TX. Texas is 2nd after California (and of course CO).
We don’t know what UNL wanted. Their reasoning changed totally once the exit fee issue was settled. Maybe Delany’s expansion plans simply made them realize they had a better option. Maybe they just wanted stability with all this talk of superconferences and realized the Pac and SEC didn’t fit. And maybe you are right, they resented going from top dog who everyone obeyed in the Big 8 to just one of the gang and really didn’t like being 1-9 vs. Texas. It took about 10 years for people to start talking about what really happened in the SWC. It might take that long or longer before we really know what UNL was thinking.
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The short of it is UNL realistically had one good option in case the Big 12 failed: The Big Ten. With Missouri screaming “pick me” and the PAC eyeing expansion Nebraska really had no choice. Throw in the economic and academic benefits and the decision was pretty easy.
The longer answer is an economic analysis of why Texas didn’t want a Big 12 Network, how a Nebraska network would have fared, and how much more profitable a share of the BTN would be without the risk.
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It just made way too much sense for them to join the Big 10, whether their motivation was to “get away from Texas” or simply to put themselves in a better place. Colorado’s move made a lot of sense, even if the direct economic advantages weren’t as clear. With A&M the situation is a little murkier and speculative as to which is the better long term path.
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that 1-9 record vs UT in the big XII made the Big 10 even the more sweet.
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Can anyone explain why the Big Ten shouldnt add Mizzou? I dont understand, they seem to fit the bill in every category.
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A better question is: Why would the Big Ten add Mizzou?
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Well it seems to me – Mizzou is an AAU school, fits geographically, has some rivalries with other B10 schools already, brings in a new tv market, and also is a fit culturally (meaning they dont seem self-centered like UT & ND). Their athletics arent deep with tradition, but they are respectable.
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That doesn’t really answer the question “Why would the Big Ten add Mizzou?” It is a list of commonalities between Missouri and the Big Ten conference, but it doesn’t provide a reason why it would be advantageous to the Big Ten, and why the B10 would take on the downsides of another school.
Why would the Big Ten add Mizzou? How would it be advantageous to the conference? Would it drive up the per-school athletic conference distributions? Would it improve the football brand? Would it make the conference more academically prestigious? Would Missouri bring something to the CIC that the CIC doesn’t currently have?
There don’t seem to be answers that would give the Big Ten a reason to add Mizzou.
There are too many arguing for expansion for expansion’s sake.
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Biggest argument for the B1G to take Mizzou is to keep Mizzou from joining the ESS EEE CEE.
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Adding a team to spite Mike Slive is a bad idea.
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large state school; flagship school; good football and basketball programs, although an issue with current basketball coach; decent support in both bball and fball; top 30 overall ath. dept.; geographic and cultural fit, all kinds of instant rivalries…yeah, no reason to add them……….
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It’s a money issue. It’s not that people are greedy, but they do use the shared revenue to fund their olympic sports. Missouri has to bring in enough additional revenue to the conference so that they don’t lose money to even be considered. Now factor in the idea that there are two (maybe four) spots in any expansion scenario and figure out where Missouri is on the list of available candidates.
I like Mizzou. I’d like to see them in the Big Ten. However, I like Notre Dame and Oklahoma a lot more.
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That’s all nice, but do they make the B10 better, on average, in any way?
Move the needle in football reputation/money? No
Move the needle in bball reputation/money? No
Move the needle in average population? No
Add a growing/economically vibrant part of the country? No
Add a football recruiting hotbed? No
Enhance the research/academic status of the B10? No
Mizzou’s problem is that they are thoroughly mediocre in every way. They’re not bad in any aspect, but they don’t make the B10 average better in any aspect either (and are a drag academically; UNL is as well, but they’re actually stellar in something).
There’s no reason for the B10 to add a school that doesn’t improve the conference in any way; all it does is make the original B10 school splay each other less often.
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The reason why they do not want Missouri is they essentially bring NOTHING except maybe the St Louis market to the table. Schools that would work would be: 1: Notre Dame (The “Holy Grail”), but not happening. 2: Boston College: Strong academics, the Boston market, great hockey program, rival for Penn State. 3: Maryland (See BC, but closer to Penn State & no hockey). 4: North Carolina: great academics, hoops & baseball.
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David, Maryland would rank ahead of Boston College; its alumni/fan constituency is far bigger, and the D.C./Baltimore market is more attuned to college sports than Boston is. It’s a semi-brand name in men’s and women’s basketball, with national titles in both, and is recognized in lacrosse, a sport that’s growing in the Big Ten area. Moreover, Maryland is AAU (BC isn’t), and its research resources are substantially larger.
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I know I’m in the serious minority that actually cares about this, but if the Big Ten picks up the ACC “Core Four” as well as ND, and ___________, then the new league will be AMAZING for lacrosse. Michigan’s new D1 team, Maryland (2 national titles and has NEVER had a losing season), Virginia (5 titles including 2011), North Carolina (4 titles), Duke and ND (both really strong in recent years)…. wow.
Too bad there’s no way to include Hopkins (9 titles) and Syracuse (11 titles).
Oh yeah, OSU and PSU have teams too.
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I’ve been watching more and more lacrosse over the last few years… but, my problem is that I really don’t have a horse in the race. If the BIG were to start a lacrosse league, I’d pay even more attention.
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Sorry. Can’t have an AMAZING lacrosse league…without the ‘Cuse.
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Jeepers,
Yes, missing Syracuse would be a big gap. However, I’d still be happy with having almost half of the playoff teams in one conference.
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But more importantly, -tortoise shell helmets!!!!
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Does the B1G really want Missouri to go to the ESS EEE CEE?
Or will the B1G make a pre-emptive strike?
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The B1G can raid the ACC at any time: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech all fit the snooty culture of the B1G. Of these 5, Georgia Tech would probably be the easiest to pry loose.
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Uh, first off, why would the SEC want Mizzou? They wouldn’t make the SEC better in football (which is almost the sole issue that counts down there) and likely would send OU and Texas to the Pac.
Second off, how would Mizzou in the SEC harm the B10? It’s not like adding Mizzou would enhance the SEC.
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The only reason that the SEC would even consider Mizzou is for the tv markets of KC and STL. Would the tv networks be convinced that Mizzou could get those markets, I don’t know. But that would be the only reason that Mizzou would be considered by the SEC. As an SEC guy, Mizzou really doesn’t excite me a whole lot (as I’m sure they don’t excite the B1G folks either).
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As to BC and NC….blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. NC’s not coming, and nobody would want BC.
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David: Those schools come only if they’re enough to entice ND to join as well. They have their own strengths, but not enough to justify adding them without ND.
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Missouri and Pitt to the B1G are solid adds, but I think Delany is saving slots for ND and TU even tho they may never happen. Realignment is about constriction of CFB as a whole, even tho the B1G / PAC / SEC are expanding. If only 10 or 12 “brands” exist, then the next 4 adds either get one of them or concentrates on “brand” states – In this case states that are top 10 – 12 in population. From what I can tell from this TAMU situation, Slive is foregoing the “brand” of UT for the “brand” of TX.
“brand” schools still possible = UT / ND / OU
“brand” states still possible = TX / NY / NC / NJ / VA
Pitt and Missouri fit B1G feel in both academics and footprint, just not so sure Delany is ready to take them right now.
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Great points, Duff
However, don’t forget FL and GA. Sure, UF and UGa are down there, but adding FSU, Miami, and GTech almost certainly gets the BTN on basic cable in both states as well.
As for NY & NJ, the problem is whether adding any schools can capture those states. Certainly there’s no scenario for getting those states that doesn’t include adding ND.
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To go beyond 12, the B10 needs a home run. Adding Mizzouri doesn’t do that. Notre Dame does. Texas does. Some kind of huge ACC takeover might. To me, Mizzouri is in teh same boat as Pitt – they are decent “complementary” additions, schools that could fill out an even number. But they aren’t home runs in and of themselves.
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Don’t agree that going to 14 requires a home run. At some point it will/might make sense just to feed the BTN….and because MO/Piitt/Rutgers would be part of the deal anyway if ND/TX ever came on board….and because the BT won’t much like the SEC having 14 teams while it has 12.
I do think nothing gets done for a couple of years, in any event, as the BIG is conservative and will want to digest NEB first. If the SEC takes MO in the interim, that’s the way it is. I don’t see the BIG stopping the SEC right now……I disagree with that position, but all indications are that’s where things stand.
Agree that going to 16 requires one HR–either TX or ND
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I don’t think the Big Ten cares what the SEC does, unless it’s robbing them of a desired expansion candidate.
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For someone who thinks “feeding the BTN” is a valid reason to expansion, I can’t understand your antipathy to adding the ACC schools. Seriously, is it the accent? Because if Carolinians spoke with an Ozark twang, NC wouldn’t seem much different from most of MO.
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@Richard – Not sure if you’re talking to me, but I fit the bill.
The Big Ten has an identity, and I’m worried about losing it.
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metratron:
Actually, I was replying to mushroomgod.
As for the Big10 identity, I think it would be fine so long as it admits only like-minded schools who are concerned with both research/academics and athletics.
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Key to what makes the Big Ten a success is respecting what each school brings to the table. Northwestern may not lead the conference in athletics, but they are an academic powerhouse. Nebraska may fall near the bottom of the conference academically, but they have an iconic football program. Penn State was an average academic school (now quickly improving) when they joined the conference, but they brought an iconic football program and new territories for the conference.
Missouri doesn’t really have anything to hang its hat on. The St. Louis and Kansas City markets are okay, but that’s it. That part of the country is not a high-growth area, and Missouri doesn’t increase the conference’s national visibility.
While Notre Dame is and will always be #1, I still think Delany has his eye on expanding the conference in the direction of increased population growth – the mid-Atlantic.
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That’s the key behind the Big Ten’s interest in the ACC core four — a growing and affluent region, solid academics and research, good all-around athletics that complement current Big Ten members. As a bloc, they would be a home run of sorts. None are current football powerhouses, but Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina would boost the Big Ten’s depth, and while Duke probably won’t return to its glory years from the ’30s through the early ’60s, the Big Ten imprimatur might allow it to have a Northwesternesque season or two every now and then.
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The main reason I would support that kind of expansion is because of the impact on recruiting/population growth it would have. If the national brands in the Big Ten (OSU/PSU/Michigan/Nebraska) could lock down Va/NC recruiting, that alone would enable the Big Ten to easily match the Florida, California, and Texas nexuses that the other major conferences have access to when combined with the rest of the footprint.
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Yes, Missouri is a nice fit. But the answer to your question is that the Big Ten is hunting elephant and Missouri is not an elephant. Based on what elephant is captured by the Big Ten may determine who comes with the elephant. Taking Missouri now would only limit the Big Ten’s options. For example, if Oklahoma came in, who might have to come with them? If UT came in, who might have to come with them? If ND came in, who would be a good partner? Also, the Big Ten is still looking for a great eastern partner for Penn State. Yes Missouri is nice, but they can’t limit their options until an elephant has been bagged.
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Oklahoma’s not coming in, so take them out of the equation.
If ND came in, Pitt would seem to be the best choice to make it easier for ND.
MO seems like the best westernoption to make it easier for TX.
But that’s why the BIG probably waits 2 years to see if ND or TX are in play. If not, expand(or not) in time for ’16 tv contract.
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I think ND would prefer BC or even GTech.
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They shouldn’t add them now because they are a complementary school at best. They wouldn’t hurt the B10 much (lower academics, but OK), but they don’t add much value either. As a partner with a more valuable school, MO is a viable option.
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Michigan vs App State, Part Deux
Coming September 2014:
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/25/rotfl-michigan-to-open-up-14-season-with-appalachian-state/
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This is a terrible idea. We have nothing to gain, but everything to lose. Even if we win, it’ll be described as petty.
The ratings though, I bet they’ll be pretty big (for the first half anyway).
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I get the feeling that the conference/BTN is now nudging all the member schools to schedule the most TV-friendly OOC games they can. That’s why you even hear the PU AD talk about dropping their FCS game (maybe even for a home-and-home with another AQ school).
You’ve certainly seen Northwestern’s OOC schedule become more attractive, with the MAC guarantee games being replaced with HaH’s with academic peers (and far more TV-friendly matchups) like BC, Army, Syracuse, Cal, and Stanford.
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Louisville is a terrible idea for the B12 and will never happen. Do you realize that North Carolina (and probably Duke, not sure on that one though) makes significantly more money on football than basketball? Whatever Louisville makes on basketball for itself (because of ticket sales in the new YUM Center) is irrelevant to the B12. The B12 cares about what Louisville football games bring in terms of eyeballs (currently TV ratings, moving more toward web hits). The answer is nothing and that is why they will never be invited.
I agree, that the B12’s issue right now is more quality than new geography, so VaTech, BYU, Houston and TCU all make sense. As for ND, they made a huge mistake not joining the B12 last time around. Despite ND’s protestations that being independent is an identity thing, they are already in a conference (Big East). Only football is independent. Also, ND’s primary concerns are money and flexibility to schedule historical rivalries in the Midwest and on the two coasts.
If ND had joined the B10 when the B10 went to twelve teams, it could have insisted that the B10 lock itself into 8 conference games. That would have left ND four games for USC, Stanford, Navy and one more that rotates. Also, the value ND would have brought to the B10 would have been split 12 ways, which is the best that ND is ever going to get at this point when it joins a conference.
The next move by the B10 (and the other major conferences will be to 14 or 16 teams). That means the B10 will almost certainly go to at least nine conference games, making it much more difficult for ND to retain its other rivalries. The value ND will bring to the conference also will now be split 14 or 16 ways. The B10 would have stopped at 12 teams had ND joined in 2010. That’s not a possibility any more unless ND wants to join whatever is left of the Big East when the next round of expansion is over.
Also, as for ND does not care about money, that is silly. ND is no more immune to the laws of economics than I am. They have to pay coaches, build facilities and do all the other things required to lure elite athletes and maintain the ND brand.As you point out, they are steadily falling down the revenue list and are now behind not only most of the elite football programs but even more and more of the middling ones. At some point, the gap becomes too big.
If I were ND, I would try to find a way in the next round of expansion to join the B10 as the 13th member. The could go to the SEC, but the cultural fit would be awful and would damage their brand far more than joining a conference ever would. They could go to the P12, but the travel costs would be high for their other sports and they would have to give up some of their Midwest rivalries. Similar with the ACC or Big East, but those conferences aren’t on a par with the B10/SEC/P12 in terms of money or prestige. So, they should join the B10 and try to get the B10 to let them pick the 14th team and guarantee that the conference will not go above 9 conference games. If they pick Boston College, then four of there historical rivals will be in the conference. They can keep USC on an annual basis and alternate Stanford and Navy, with one more game to be a home game against a baby seal each year. That is the best outcome ND will ever get at this point.
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Suggesting that ND would abandon the Navy game means you haven’t been paying attention. ND *will* play Navy annually. Of course ND cares about the money. But the donation money comes from an alumni base that is rabidly pro-independece in re football. ND as a school survives by keeping the alums happy.
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I understand the Navy thing. That is why ND should have joined as the 12th team. They screwed themselves. The B10 is not kicking any teams out for ND, so if ND ever wants in at this point it will be as part of the move to 14 or 16. If ND wants to keep USC, Stanford and Navy, they could do this with their three OOC games. But it means ND will no longer be scheduling anyone else OOC.
As for money, great. You can rely on alumni contributions. The bottom line is while UT’s athletic department brings in $140 million and every one of OSU, Michigan, Penn State, Alabama, etc. each bring in north of $100 million, ND brings in about $85 million. And with the new TV contracts, the gap is becoming bigger every year. But go ahead and stay independent if you want. You just need to realize that it is not a matter of a few million dollars it is a matter of tens of millions of dollars every year. It is very hard to remain competitive at the elite level when you can’t be competitive in paying coaches and offering elite recruits all the bells and whistles when it comes to facilities. But good luck trying.
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Just FYI, but during a public appearance yesterday, Michigan Athletic Director David Brandon said Michigan’s revenues would be $132M, adding that U-M’s spending per sport would be greater than Ohio State. Brandon said OSU’s revenues were going to be $138M, but the Buckeyes do have more varsity teams than Michigan–that’s why the spending for team is in UM’s favor.
If this number is for FY 2012, then it outpaces the published budget number of $121.2M by over $10M. That could be due to greater gifting (whith $5M already set aside to remodel Schembechler Hall) or revenues from the football conference championship game that weren’t counted for the fiscal year (but would only top perhaps $1.8M) or it could mean larger than expected increases in revenue from the Big Ten Network or ABC/ESPN (due to the addition of Nebraska). Those would be my best guesses.
It would also explain why he’s looking at expanding the south side of Michigan Stadium to add more seats, join the concourses on the east and west and enclose that side of the stadium. I understand the bleachers will go up to the height of the new scoreboards, so if you’re a visiting fan, bring your oxygen bottle.
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As an institution, the Navy game is Notre Dame’s most important rivalry. More important than Michigan or USC even though the game may have no impact on computer ratings or whatnot. Any scenario that doesn’t involve Notre Dame playing Navy annually is just not going to happen.
If you need to look up why, go check out the history of the rivalry. Renewals are just a formality; it would be absurd to even suggest that they won’t play annually.
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The only thing I’d add is that the three untouchable games on Notre Dame’s schedule are probably Navy, USC, and Michigan. Any scenario involving them has to work around that as a basic start.
I do think Notre Dame will someday enter a conference, whether the ACC at 8 conference games or the Big Ten at 9, or some kind of new cross-country conference (with 8 or 9). But, those three games are going to be played regardless of which conference they join, if I had to guess.
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I’m a Michigan fan, and even I’m not sure I’d put Michigan above Michigan State or Pudue on a scale of how untouchable the games are. UM/ND has had many long gaps in their series that you haven’t seen with the other two Big Ten teams.
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I have to agree with GCS–I’m also a Michigan fan and I don’t see UM being an untouchable game for Notre Dame. USC and Navy make sense not only because of the longstanding rivalries, but because those games are played in October and November.
The Michigan game is in September and Notre Dame could replace UM (or MSU or Purdue) if they wanted to with most any team from the BCS conferences. When UM was off the schedule in recent years, Notre Dame had home-and-homes with Ohio State (1995/6) and Nebraska (2000/1) as “replacement” games.
With the nine-game conference schedule coming up in 2017 and with the Big Ten keeping Nebraska and Ohio State as home games on Michigan’s schedule the same years the ND game is played in Ann Arborthe UM-ND series may come to an end sooner rather than later. Unless the B1G breaks up the OSU and UN-L games on Michigan’s conference schedule or ND agrees to a change (not likely because the Irish like to play USC at home when they’re playing at Michigan and vice versa), this will be a non-issue.
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Quite true. Navy is the only truly untouchable game. The USC is a big deal, the Purdue and Sparty games are convenient, the Michigan rivalry is noted for its off field dimention.
At any rate, even if ND joined the B1G they still would have went to 9 conf games. It would have been the first of many losing votes for ND in the B1G. ND in the B1G will be in the same straightjacket schedule at 16 as they’d be at 12.
If ND wanted into a conference they’d be in one. Likely last summer the important people were asked and the beans counted. Considering how fast Swarbrick backed off the “monitor the lanscape” comments, I think we can surmise their conclusions.
Independences is a risk, but it’s the reason we made it to king level, and our best hope of avoiding the Fate of Fordhame, GTown, MARQUETTE, St Mary’s, etc.
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Do you really think ND will play Navy every year forever? I can easily see them switching to every other year, giving them more flexibility, if they joined a conference. Any alumni who were around in 1945 are at least 84 years old now.
Nebraska left their Big 8 companions. Colorado left their Big 8 companions. Arkansas and then Texas, A&M, Baylor and Tech left the last 4 behind in the Southwest Conference. Now A&M is trying to leave rivals behind again. TCU can’t seem to split from their companions quick enough. They got left in SWC, left in WAC, abandoned WAC, abandoned CUSA for MWC after several others left them, and have abandoned MWC for BE after Utah and BYU left. Actually it seems like its TCU that’s the Texas team that splits up conferences and drives people away. Since TCU joined, maybe we can predict a Big East disentegration!
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Possibly, but ND is different when you think about how staid their football program is. Maybe someday they’ll consider it (if it works for both sides), but institutional memory is a long-term kind of thing when it merges with tradition. I honestly don’t see it going off the annual schedule for at least a few decades, unless something really drastic happens that forces it to break…
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As long as Navy wants the game, they have it. Period.
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ND will try everything in their power to continue to play Navy. It’s essentially at debt of honor. If ever a time comes when ND can’t schedule Navy anymore, the Irish will still send the contract yearly for Navy to reject. ND takes the US Navy’s assistance in keeping the school open during WWII that seriously.
FWIW, while Navy is not nearly as dogged about independence as ND, USNA will go the way of the Ivies before doing anything that would further compromise its primary mission: commissioning officer for the Navy and Marine Corps.
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Yeah, that reason…………..and also because they can routinely kick Navy’s ass…………..(not so much recently though)…
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If Notre Dame needs to play Navy every year, perhaps the B1G should take both of them? It’s a small price to pay to get Notre Dame.
The B1G could then reorganize it’s divisions to suit Notre Dame:
Notre Dame Division: ND, Navy, Mich, MSU, Ind, Pur, PSU
The Other Division: Neb, Iowa, Minn, Wisc, Ill, NW, OSU.
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Lord no……….take pitt and keep Navy as OOC, in that scenerio…..Navy does not have an ath. dept. competitive with BIG schools.
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Agreed. It would be a total disaster to try to force Navy to keep up with the Big Ten schools in all athletics. It just wouldn’t be fair to them.
I could easily see ND/Pitt as a compromise expansion to 14 if ND did want to join with that as a condition.
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I see taking BC (and GTech & Miami & FSU) being more enticing to ND. In my Big20 scenario with ND in the same pod as BC, GTech, PSU, & Maryland (meaning they’re yearly opponents), they would still play Michigan, MSU, PU, Miami, & FSU (and OSU, Nebraska, VTech, & UVa as well as IU) half the time. OOC would be USC & Navy, splitting the last spot between Stanford & either Pitt or a Texas school. ND would still play a very national schedule, visiting the Midwest, NE, south, and west coast regularly.
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ND’s rivalry with the service academies are one of convenience, the independent service academies (Navy & Army) are always available to play late in the season when others are playing conference games.
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ND will never abandon Navy. Period.
In fact, they will stop playing UM, MSU, Pur and USC before that happens. Convenience has nothing to do with it.
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Oddly, despite not liking divisions, I think I like those divisions better than the ones we have.
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Navy is a bad choice for many reasons. But that aside, you are putting every school in a state that borders OH into one division and OSU in the other. That would cause some problems. You can’t arrange the divisions solely to please ND. Part of them joining a conference is them learning to compromise.
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Well, Navy’s not coming to the B10, but the OSU “fish out of water” division isn’t the reason why — Wisconsin has been subjected to virtually the same thing in the current divisions.
No matter what circumstances happen to bring ND into the fold, you figure there would be a push to put Mich, MSU and Pur in the same division with the Irish. The “being in a conference” pill goes down a little easier if ND is playing a bunch of games they’d be playing anyway.
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jcfreder:
Actually once the B10 goes to 9 conference games, I see Michigan & MSU playing ND only 4 times in 6 years anyway (in order to schedule any other major OOC series ever again). Going from playing ND 2/3rds of the time to half the time isn’t a huge drop.
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jcfreder,
“Well, Navy’s not coming to the B10, but the OSU “fish out of water” division isn’t the reason”
No, those are two completely separate issues. I thought I was clear about that by mentioning Navy in one sentence and then saying “But that aside” before talking about OSU.
“Wisconsin has been subjected to virtually the same thing in the current divisions.”
No, they haven’t. WI borders the state of IL and plays U of I annually. WI borders MN and plays MN annually. At best, StevenD’s divisions could preserve OSU/MI. However, PSU and IU at least might have issues with losing OSU. The western schools also might object to not getting ND, MI or PSU. I’m guessing OSU would be the last of the 4 eastern kings that WI, MN, IA and NE would prefer. NW and IL would be happier about it, but OSU wouldn’t be their first choice necessarily. So that’s roughly 9 schools that might have a problem with it, versus maybe 3 with the current setup (WI, IA, maybe NE).
“No matter what circumstances happen to bring ND into the fold, you figure there would be a push to put Mich, MSU and Pur in the same division with the Irish. The “being in a conference” pill goes down a little easier if ND is playing a bunch of games they’d be playing anyway.”
ND might push for that, but I think the B10 would want the opposite to integrate ND into the conference. I think they might aim to keep PU with ND, but have MI in the other division. Off the top of my head, something like this:
A: ND, Pitt, PSU, OSU, IN, PU, IL
B: MI, NE, WI, IA, MN, MSU, NW
Locked games: OSU/MI, PSU/MSU, ND/NE, Pitt/WI, PU/IA, IL/NW, IN/MN
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Brian:
“The western schools also might object to not getting ND, MI or PSU. I’m guessing OSU would be the last of the 4 eastern kings that WI, MN, IA and NE would prefer. NW and IL would be happier about it, but OSU wouldn’t be their first choice necessarily.”
Huh? Why? I’m quite certain that to the 5 original B10 schools in that hypothetical division, OSU (and Michigan) are in the top 2. Both would be far above PSU in desirability, and both are likely above ND as well to all of those 5 other than Northwestern.
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Richard,
1. NE has more history with PSU and MI, and ND is a bigger national name.
2. WI is closer to ND and cares more about MI. They may or may not value OSU over PSU. Considering all their complaining about distance now, I figured they might value playing ND more often and getting that extra Chicago exposure.
3. MN is closer to ND, cares more about MI, and has a trophy with PSU.
4. IA is closer to ND, has a rivalry with PSU and better history with MI.
Most fans place a high value on playing ND. That may wear off if they were in the B10, but right now I think most fans would choose ND.
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Brian:
Columbus is closer to Blacksburg than either Madison or Iowa City. I guess than means OSU would rather play VTech than either Wisconsin or Iowa.
Oh, and OSU has a trophy game with Illinois but no trophy with PSU (or Michigan). By your logic, OSU cares more about playing Illinois than either PSU or Michigan.
You don’t know the western B10 very well, Brian. Thinking that Wisconsin values OSU and PSU the same shows how ignorant you are. Ironically, you were wrong the other way as well. Northwestern, due to their long history with the Irish, likely are the only western school of the original 5 B10 schools in there who value playing ND as much or more than playing either Michigan or OSU.
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Richard,
Now you are just making stuff up. I didn’t even say some of the things you are claiming I said.
1. Yes, many OSU fans would rather play VT than WI or IA.
2. Do you really want to compare MN/OSU to OSU/MI?
3. Many older OSU fans do care at least as much about IL as PSU. The only passion for PSU is because it has been a battle for the conference title.
4. I said WI might value them the same. I was intentionally trying to not speak for their preference. PSU gives them east coast access they might find valuable. It’s not like OSU or PSU has any real feelings about WI.
5. All I said about NW was that OSU wouldn’t be their first choice, and you explicitly agreed with me. How, exactly, does that correlate to me being wrong about NW?
6. I like how you completely skipped the part where said I was guessing. There was no attempt to make an authoritative statement, because I don’t like to speak for other fan bases (as if everyone in a fan base agrees anyway).
7. None of the western schools would make OSU their first choice based on my talking with their fans at OSU home games (maybe the traveling fans are not representative of the general opinion, but I go with the evidence I have). Most would choose MI first, and almost every school seems to get giddy when they schedule ND. If OSU wasn’t a top dog, several of the schools would lose a lot of interest in the game. That means they want to play the rank, not the school. IA fans talk a lot about their rivalry with PSU. NE has history with PSU. MN at least has a trophy with PSU, not that either side seems to care much about it (that’s still more than you can say for MN/OSU). WI doesn’t seem to have strong feelings for either OSU or PSU.
8. Parts of the guesses were based on the feelings from OSU. Other than revenge for last year against WI, none of WI, IA, MN and NW raise any real passion for OSU fans. A lot of OSU fans are excited to play NE, but that’s mostly the new toy effect (the same reason I suggested ND would be high on many lists). Illibuck carries some meaning for the older crowd, but mostly IL is just one of those pain in the butt type of games.
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Illinois (younger Illini fans, anyway) actually care more about playing Michigan than OSU. However, I hate it when you say unsubstantiated stuff like “Wisconsin cares more about Michigan” or “Iowa has more history with Michigan”. I mean, WTF? Where are you pulling that from? Also, why would Wisconsin care about East Coast access? Unlike Northwestern and Michigan, they have substantially more alums in the Midwest than they do the East Coast.
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Richard,
“Illinois (younger Illini fans, anyway) actually care more about playing Michigan than OSU.”
That is the impression I get.
“However, I hate it when you say unsubstantiated stuff like “Wisconsin cares more about Michigan” or “Iowa has more history with Michigan”. I mean, WTF? Where are you pulling that from?”
First, I prefaced it all by saying I was guessing. By definition, guesses are unsubstantiated.
Second, I said that about WI because that is what WI fans have told me in person. It may or may not be representative of the greater fan base, but it’s what I have to work with.
Third, I didn’t say that about IA. If you are going to use quotes, you should actually present what was said.
WI might want more exposure to the federal government, or they might want more eastern students, or they might want to recruit there, or they might want to connect with the alumni they do have there, or they might just like the ocean. It’s not like there are huge advantages to more OH exposure.
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Brian, you said “IA is closer to ND, has a rivalry with PSU and better history with MI.”
How is that substantially different from “Iowa has more history with Michigan”?
As for what’s in OH, didn’t we cover this a few days ago? R-E-C-R-U-I-T-S
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Richard,
Look up the words “more” (deals with quantity) and “better” (deals with quality) in a dictionary if you don’t know the difference. They aren’t synonyms. On top of that, you used quotes. You don’t get to (incorrectly) paraphrase me and attribute it as a quote.
Let’s just look recently (the 00s) for an example:
IA/MI – IA went 4-4 (2001-2006, 2009-2010)
IA/OSU – IA went 1-7
Historically, IA hasn’t beaten OSU twice in a decade since the 60s. They beat MI 4 times in the 00s, and twice in a row (and 3 total) in the 80s. IA is 5-34-1 against OSU in the last 50 years (0.138) while they’re 9-25-2 against MI (0.278). IA’s only #1 versus #2 game was against #2 MI in 1985 (IA 12 – MI 10). Two weeks later they came to Columbus and lost to #9 OSU 22-13. That was the last time IA was #1, and the previous time was in 1961. IA has better history against MI. Not good, but better.
WI recruits OH some, but they don’t usually beat OSU for the top people due to distance. The past 10 recruiting classes totaled 23 from OH. East of OH, they got 28 (PA 10, NJ 6, NY 5, CT 4, MD 2, NC 1), plus 7 from MI. It seems like eastern recruiting is more important to them than OH recruiting. They also got 23 from FL, as well as 20 from IL, 17 from TX and 14 from MN. OH isn’t all that important to WI recruiting.
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I’d do it. I know it’s not ideal, but I’d still do it. You get the Americana aspect to the B10. Navy could be a football only member. Hell, if the US keeps up the wars or starts a few more, army & navy could have a revival.
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matt,
“The next move by the B10 (and the other major conferences will be to 14 or 16 teams). That means the B10 will almost certainly go to at least nine conference games, making it much more difficult for ND to retain its other rivalries.”
The B10 is already going to 9 games in 2017.
“Also, as for ND does not care about money, that is silly.”
It really isn’t. They have a $6.8B endowment. They can afford whatever they want in sports, and TV money is just a bonus.
“As you point out, they are steadily falling down the revenue list and are now behind not only most of the elite football programs but even more and more of the middling ones.”
That’s pure bull. First, many people estimate that NBC pays ND $15M per year, but the people who were in the negotiations say that the reported number is much too low. Second, ND had $64.2M in FB revenue in 2009-2010. Only UT is really significantly ahead of that with $93.9M, and everyone else is below $72M. ND FB is $30M ahead of middling programs right now, so I think they can muddle through. If ND wants to spend an extra $10M on FB, that’s less than 0.15% of their endowment. I think they could afford it.
“If I were ND, I would try to find a way in the next round of expansion to join the B10 as the 13th member.”
“So, they should join the B10 and try to get the B10 to let them pick the 14th team and guarantee that the conference will not go above 9 conference games.”
If I were ND, I ‘d stay independent as long as there is still a path to the NC available. If and only if that becomes impossible would I join the B10. And while ND would certainly get input, they can’t join as #13 and then pick #14 themselves. That would have to be part of a package deal, and essentially make ND #14. Depending on the school(s) ND would prefer, the B10 may or may not move forward.
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Rumor has it that they agreed to join the Big Ten last year, on the condition the conference doesn’t expand past twelve members.
But, by that point, Nebraska had become available and Delany bet on Notre Dame still being there when the next round of musical chairs starts.
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I’ve never heard this rumor before. That just seems awfully hard to believe/not a serious offer by ND. I think the B10 would have taken ND over Nebraska.
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My understanding was that the offer/conditions were at the very last minute. By then, Nebraska was already a done deal, which was why Notre Dame insisted on being the 12th and final member.
They’re not as committed to independence as people believe. Their fans might be, but the institution has narrowly turned down joining the Big Ten each time they put up the idea.
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First, rumors have had almost every school going almost everywhere. Second, if this rumor had any truth someone in the media world would have reported it and it would have become a huge topic of discussion. Provide a serious link to this “rumor” (i.e. not a message board or random blogger speculating), or a rumor is all that it is.
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Actually, UNC makes about the same in football as bball ($22M vs. $20M) while Duke makes significantly more in bball than football ($16M vs. $26M). Check some Forbes articles for the data.
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Louisville is a terrible idea for the B12 and will never happen. Do you realize that North Carolina (and probably Duke, not sure on that one though) makes significantly more money on football than basketball? Whatever Louisville makes on basketball for itself (because of ticket sales in the new YUM Center) is irrelevant to the B12. The B12 cares about what Louisville football games bring in terms of eyeballs (currently TV ratings, moving more toward web hits). The answer is nothing and that is why they will never be invited.
I agree, that the B12’s issue right now is more quality than new geography, so VaTech, BYU, Houston and TCU all make sense. As for ND, they made a huge mistake not joining the B10 last time around. Despite ND’s protestations that being independent is an identity thing, they are already in a conference (Big East). Only football is independent. Also, ND’s primary concerns are money and flexibility to schedule historical rivalries in the Midwest and on the two coasts.
If ND had joined the B10 when the B10 went to twelve teams, it could have insisted that the B10 lock itself into 8 conference games. That would have left ND four games for USC, Stanford, Navy and one more that rotates. Also, the value ND would have brought to the B10 would have been split 12 ways, which is the best that ND is ever going to get at this point when it joins a conference.
The next move by the B10 (and the other major conferences will be to 14 or 16 teams). That means the B10 will almost certainly go to at least nine conference games, making it much more difficult for ND to retain its other rivalries. The value ND will bring to the conference also will now be split 14 or 16 ways. The B10 would have stopped at 12 teams had ND joined in 2010. That’s not a possibility any more unless ND wants to join whatever is left of the Big East when the next round of expansion is over.
Also, as for ND does not care about money, that is silly. ND is no more immune to the laws of economics than I am. They have to pay coaches, build facilities and do all the other things required to lure elite athletes and maintain the ND brand.As you point out, they are steadily falling down the revenue list and are now behind not only most of the elite football programs but even more and more of the middling ones. At some point, the gap becomes too big.
If I were ND, I would try to find a way in the next round of expansion to join the B10 as the 13th member. The could go to the SEC, but the cultural fit would be awful and would damage their brand far more than joining a conference ever would. They could go to the P12, but the travel costs would be high for their other sports and they would have to give up some of their Midwest rivalries. Similar with the ACC or Big East, but those conferences aren’t on a par with the B10/SEC/P12 in terms of money or prestige. So, they should join the B10 and try to get the B10 to let them pick the 14th team and guarantee that the conference will not go above 9 conference games. If they pick Boston College, then four of there historical rivals will be in the conference. They can keep USC on an annual basis and alternate Stanford and Navy, with one more game to be a home game against a baby seal each year. That is the best outcome ND will ever get at this point.
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The Big Ten Conference has already decided to play nine conference games starting in 2017. Further expansion may change that plan, but that’s what the B1G is going to be basing its future non-conference schedules on. See http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/football/ncaa/08/04/big-ten-schedule.ap/index.html
As far as revenue is concerned with Notre Dame, I agree with Frank on this one–ND’s cultural identity is based in part on football independence and it’s not something the Irish are going to give up on because of monetary concerns. Their deal with NBC that pays up to $15M per year for their home football games ends in about four or five years’ time. Right now, the “conference distributions” Notre Dame gets from television, the NCAA tournament and its bowl game appearances is perhaps a bit less than programs in the Big Ten, Pac 12 and SEC.
It will be interesting to see what sort of deals the Big Ten and ND get in the coming years, but if NBC and the NBC Sports Network aren’t satisfactory to the Irish, then Notre Dame will go somewhere else.
Even if Notre Dame was make less money than other programs, there’s only so much you can do within the football program with the revenue you have. ND already has the stadium, facilities, etc. in place, so what they’re spending on now is salaries, upkeep, recruiting, etc. They really don’t need a big cash injection to run the football program right now.
The only thing that will move Notre Dame into a conference is the type of structural change that Frank’s discussing in this post. The Big Ten approached ND in 1999 and got shot down. There were rumors in 2003 about ND joining the B1G when the ACC grabbed Miami-FL, Boston College and Virginia Tech from the Big East. I’m sure ND was approached again during this most recent conference expansion exercise. As long as there’s a place for Notre Dame to park its non-football teams and the football team has some sort of access to bowls and the national championship, they aren’t going to chase the money.
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Without going into everything you wrote, I just want to correct one thing. ND is not taking in just “a bit less” than all of the programs in the SEC, B10 and P12 (not to mention a couple of the programs in the B12) from “conference” distributions. Last year, the B10 distributed about $24 million and that number was about 10% higher than the previous year due to the rise in payout from BTN. As you indicated, ND takes in about $15 million. All of the SEC schools are in the $20+ million range and the new P12 looks like it is going to eclipse the SEC deal. When the B10 renegotiates its ESPN/ABC and CBS deals in 2015, the number is likely to jump again significantly based on what the SEC, B12 and SEC just negotiated and the addition of Nebraska to the conference. Without exaggeration, I believe all of the B10 teams will be bringing in over $40 million per year in “conference” distributions by 2016.
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1. ND is notoriously cheap about salaries. I think Willingham was the first coach there paid at near the going rate for a top flight program.
2. Almost all the facilities are either brand new or recently renovated.
3. ND Football already contribues financially to the University as a whole. A uni with a BILlion dollar endowment.
Money again not a huge concern for ND at present.
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matt,
You are comparing apples and oranges. The B10 distribution includes FB TV money, BB TV money, bowl money and NCAA tournament money . You are comparing that to a low estimate of what ND gets (everyone that was in the room says the reported number is much too low) just for FB TV money. At a minimum, they also get $1.3M for not going to the BCS ($4.5M if they do go) plus BE MBB TV money (about $1.5M or so, I think) plus BE NCAA tourney money (another $1.5M or so). That’s roughly $5M per year you ignored, plus however much you are undervaluing their NBC deal. On top of that, ND has a $6.8B endowment and spending an extra $10M on sports would be less than 0.15% of that, so I think they could manage it.
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matt,
“Louisville is a terrible idea for the B12 and will never happen.”
That I agree with.
“Do you realize that North Carolina (and probably Duke, not sure on that one though) makes significantly more money on football than basketball?”
2009-2010 revenues from the DOE:
UNC
FB $22.1M
MBB $20.6M
Duke
FB $16.1M
MBB $26.7M
UL
FB $15.5M
MBB $25.9M
“Despite ND’s protestations that being independent is an identity thing, they are already in a conference (Big East). Only football is independent. Also, ND’s primary concerns are money and flexibility to schedule historical rivalries in the Midwest and on the two coasts.”
Being independent in FB is part of ND’s identity. Accept it. As for money, it is far from a primary concern for them. They have plenty of money. ND cares about being unique, national, having lots of exposure and a shot at a NC. Until one of those goes away, ND won’t join a conference.
The B10 wouldn’t let one school dictate the number of conference games.
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Brian,
Your UL numbers reinforce my long term thinking for future “brands” in basketball
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UL’s problem is it’s really hard to become a king in the BE, especially when you don’t really seem like a BE school. I think they had higher stature under Crum than they do now, and it’ll take a NC to change that.
Duke’s numbers should make you rethink your position on them. Those are the top 3 MBB earners, and as you can see UNC is way behind Duke (Duke makes 30% more revenue).
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Yet another reason the Big Ten would want to consider the ACC “core four.”
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HOCKEY UPDATE
Ferris State has accepted their WCHA invite. WMU and BGSU expected to wait for ND’s decision.
Also, add
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Most likely scenario:
1. Notre Dame goes independent in Men’s Ice Hockey and cuts its own TV deal with NBC Sports Network so that Notre Dame can play a “national” schedule.
2. Bowling Green and Western Michigan go to the NCHC.
Doesn’t look like Notre Dame wants to join Hockey East at this point. Notre Dame can still schedule the likes of Boston U, Boston College, and Providence without having to play at small schools such as UMass-Lowell, Merrimack, and Vermont.
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As a long time college hockey follower, I’m having trouble coming to grips with this situation. Up to about 5 years ago, Notre Dame hockey was an embarrassment to that institution, piling up losses in front of sparse crowds in an abomination of a rink. Now they’re talking about playing a national schedule and getting their own TV deal. How times change…
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Assuming that Bowling Green and Western Michigan will NOT go to the WCHA, the new WCHA will consists of Division II schools only, all of which have chosen to “play up” in Division I because the NCAA no longer offers ice hockey at the Division II level.
The losers: Robert Morris, Niagara, Canisius, and Mercyhurst. They didn’t move fast enough to prop up the CCHA so they are all stuck in Atlantic Hockey with its limit of 12 scholarships.
The CCHA is dead.
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Notre Dame is opening a new ice rink in October: 5000 seats with chair backs.
As an independent, Notre Dame can cherry-pick which schools to schedule and where in order to maximize its TV deal with NBC Sports Network.
Can you say “neutral site” games in Chicago and New York, i.e. “the Irish Classic” at Wrigley Field and “the Irish Invitational” at Yankee Stadium?
NBC Sports Network would love these events.
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I doubt it. 5k is gonna be hard to fill for hockey. Most people don’t care about it. A msu / um game in a typical year in a hockey hotbed grabs 8 to 10 k.
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That’s optimistic. College hockey is irrelevant outside of a tiny, dedicated fanbase. Besides, the “NBC Sports Network” has enough hockey to air as it is.
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More like 15years ago when the team was cover your eyes bad. Dave Poulian really turned the ship around, and any LSSU fan can tell you Jackson is a genius.
I don’t know anyone who thinks ND can make it as an independent in hockey. If Hockey East wasn’t an option, they’d be in the NCHC right now.
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The small-market schools in the NCHC (i.e. Duluth, North Dakota, Colorado College) are too small for Notre Dame.
The small-market schools in Hockey East (i.e. Merrimack, Mass-Lowell, Vermont) are too small for Notre Dame.
A TV contract from NBC Sports Network (either separately or piggy-backing on the football contract) will allow Notre Dame men’s ice hockey to play a national schedule as an independent.
Notre Dame can cherry-pick the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Boston University, Boston College, Providence, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Denver, etc. without having to play on the road at the likes of Colorado College or Merrimack.)
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@OT – How much money do you think ND can get for a hockey TV contract? NCAA hockey is a niche sport and I’m not sure it inspires many TV execs to write checks.
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@Mike – I imagine Texas Hold’Em tournaments get better ratings.
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OT, you should stick to non-hockey analysis. College hockey isn’t about markets. College hockey is about making enough money to make the sport at least revenue-neutral.
The fact that you didn’t know that NDakota and the Colorado schools are powerhouses in college hockey and amongst the leaders in attendance tells us how much you know about the sport.
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@Richard:
I know everything there is to know about Colorado College and North Dakota to tell you the following:
Comcast (NBCUniversal) doesn’t give a flying f**** about them because of the size of their TV markets.
Notre Dame, and only Notre Dame, can get a men’s ice hockey TV deal on NBC Sports Network on its own, without having to join a conference, because…
…Notre Dame men’s ice hockey can piggyback on Notre Dame’s men’s football TV contract with NBC.
“Notre Dame” is a brand that sells to the NBC Sports Network audience (70+ million homes).
Colorado College? North Dakota? Those names have no meaning outside the college hockey world.
Comcast will want Notre Dame to play “neutral site” games in Chicago and New York, not road games at Colorado Springs or Grand Forks or neutral site games at Fargo.
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@OT – I previously didn’t take the thought of ND going independent in hockey seriously, but it may make sense here. There’s no equvialent of the Big East in hockey with an East Coast/Upper Midwest footprint. The closest thing to that is the Big Ten hockey league now that Penn State has added a program and we know that’s not happening without ND becoming a full member. The Hockey East is completely New England-based, while ND doesn’t have much in common with the schools in the new North Dakota-led league other than it’s a very strong hockey conference competitively. ND may very well be better off just scheduling an independent slate that mixes Big Ten, Hockey East, Ivy League, service academies and old CCHA schools. Now, access to the NCAA Tournament is going to be the main argument against going independent. This isn’t like football where ND’s brand name provides instant access to the BCS.
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OT,
Market size would be meaningless for college hockey on TV. The only possible way to make money on it would be to get the national college hockey audience for each game. Those fans care about UND and CC just as much if not more than ND. College hockey on TV will never attract many of casual viewers.
The NHL barely brings NBC an audience, and you expect ND hockey to do it alone?
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Well, they could play in AL, AK, CO, the plains, the midwest and the northeast. That’s pretty national. If UAH can survive independence, so can ND. i wouldn’t suggest it, but they could do it.
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There are doubts about UAH’s ability survive as an independant for much longer. Its a shame really.
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There was never any point in going D-I as the only southern school, without a conference invite in advance. ND wouldn’t face the same struggles as UAH.
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I’d be shocked if Notre Dame went independent in hockey; they might technically be able to survive, but keep in mind ND isn’t even independent in basketball, where there’s a lot more TV money than in hockey. And it’s not like you can schedule your way to TV dollars in college hockey. The B10 is a special case because they have airtime to fill (and schools like Wisconsin or Minny have much bigger hockey fanbases than ND). Sure, an independent ND could schedule a heavyweight slate, but nobody is paying a ton of money to televise it.
And with all due respect, saying that North Dakota is too “small market” for the Domers doesn’t really make sense if you are talking college hockey. At least people in North Dakota will actually watch televised college hockey—I’m not sure you can say that for Irish Nation. Also, the North Dakotans would probably snicker if you used a 5000-seat hockey facility as a selling point.
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There’s been alot of consternation on behalf of the small schools in college hockey against the B10 and NCHC for leaving them behind. Unfortunately, the small schools don’t look that much better by snubbing UAH.
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Alabama-Huntsville’s only choice was Division I or no program once the NCAA discontinued ice hockey at the Division II level.
Division II schools are no longer allowed to “play down” in Division III.
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@kfreder:
Before Notre Dame joined the Big East, its men’s basketball program had 2 national TV contracts:
1. A 5-game deal for Saturday/Sunday home games on NBC
2. A deal for weeknight home games on SportsChannel America
==
Now that NBC Sports Network is looking at college hockey to fill TV time on Friday and Saturday nights, “Notre Dame” the brand is a natural fit.
NBC Sports Network is probably looking for around 100000-150000 viewers per college hockey telecast. The expectations should be relatively modest.
How many “brands” in college hockey can deliver that many TV viewers? You can probably count them with two hands:
1. Michigan
2. Michigan State
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. Boston University
6. Boston College
7. Notre Dame
(Denver may be a borderline case.)
Colorado College? North Dakota? Duluth? Omaha? Their home TV markets are too small and they have practically no following outside their respective TV markets.
Any wonder why the NCHC wanted Boston U, Boston College, and Notre Dame to join? The NCHC, as it stands now, has ZERO national brands.
Notre Dame hockey has 3 options:
1. Go independent and sign a TV contract with NBC Sports Network on its own (My guess: 85% probability)
2. Join the NCHC so that the NCHC can land a TV contract with NBC Sports Network (10% probability)
3. Join Hockey East (and play road games at small market schools in New England such as Merrimack, Lowell, and Vermont) (5% probability)
Notre Dame does NOT need a conference in ice hockey. If Notre Dame can win 2 games out of 3, Notre Dame will get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.
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I’m not sure I see the angle here. NBC Sports Network is going to need inventory — if you think people tune out ND football near the end of “down” years, wait until you put ND hockey on TV every weekend for 10 or 15 weekends. The novelty factor will wear off very quickly. Plus, the only way ND has a chance of qualifying for the NCAAs is if they play some small schools along with the bigger names. Now, I see what you’re saying about getting those games at home, but you’re starting to stretch it if you’re saying that people are going to tune in to Merrimack at ND. Ideally, the week that ND plays Merrimack, you’re going to want to put Wisconsin-Minnesota on TV. The last news I saw was that NBC Sports Network was going to try and air a variety of college hockey games from a bunch of conferences. If this is the case, why sign Notre Dame to a separate deal. Seriously, how many ND hockey games can NBCSN televise in a given year?
And the neutral-site thing is a red herring. ND can play an outdoor game MAX once a year without it getting totally overplayed, and that’s being generous. I have serious reservations about ND being able to sell out a bunch of neutral indoor games also.
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OT,
“Alabama-Huntsville’s only choice was Division I or no program once the NCAA discontinued ice hockey at the Division II level.
Division II schools are no longer allowed to “play down” in Division III.”
Not true. D-II schools can play down at D-III, they are just ineligible for the NCAA postseason. See the Northeast Ten for the only example I’m aware of.
UAH’s real problem is that nobody else in the south plays varsity hockey. They could become a club in ACHA’s D-II or D-III and have a lot of southern teams to play (not many in ACHA D-I).
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Bowling Green is now leaning toward the WCHA (perhaps because the NCHC doesn’t want Bowling Green.)
Western Michigan appears to have seen the writing on the wall (i.e. Notre Dame going independent) and have to choose between the WCHA and the NCHC on its own.
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According to who or what? Do you have a link to a story that says that, as many people might want to actually read it?
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Kalamazoo Gazette story on Western Michigan no longer attaching itself to Notre Dame:
http://www.mlive.com/broncos/index.ssf/2011/08/western_michigan_hockey_no_lon.html
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@OT – That article made me chuckle. WMU saying that they aren’t waiting for ND is kind of like an average single guy saying he’s not waiting for back-on-the-market Minka Kelly. I’ll give kudos to the PR people at WMU for somehow getting a fair number of people to believe that ND cared at all about what they did.
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Toledo Blade story on Bowling Green “tracking” toward WCHA:
http://www.toledoblade.com/BGSU/2011/08/27/Falcons-tracking-toward-switch-to-WCHA.html
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OT,
Thanks for the links.
I don’t think the NCHC ever had much interest in BGSU. I understand BGSU waiting to find out for sure, but it’s probably better for their program to get into a league with fewer national powers so they can be more competitive.
As for WMU, I don’t think their actions imply anything about ND. I think they realized that ND may not decide in the next 30 days, so WMU needs to evaluate the WCHA and NCHC (if they get an official offer soon) on their own merits. WMU could only follow ND if ND went to the NCHC and WMU got a companion offer. Much like BGSU, I think WMU would benefit from being a bigger fish in a lesser pond.
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Frank,
Any chance of an NCAA Hockey Realignment post? I enjoy (college) hockey and would like an idea as to what the new conferences look like. If anyone has a site(s) that they could recommend, I’d greatly appreciate it.
Thank you, in advance.
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Try USCHO.com and collegehockeynews.com. BCInterruption.com (a BC blog) has been covering hockey realignment pretty well too.
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Thanks, Brianhanks, Brian
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Frank, I just don’t understand why you keep insisting that CBS and ESPN won’t revisit the current SEC tv contracts. The CBS Sports chairman seems to be pretty sure that once the SEC expands, they will sit back down with the SEC and renegotiate the contracts: http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/colleges/2011/08/cbs-sports-chairman-says-he-does-not-envision-sec-expansion-in-the-very-near-future.html
And if you don’t think that ESPN will do the same, then I just don’t understand that line of thinking. Once the SEC expands to 14 (or 16 if they do it within the next 5 years), they will not be stuck with their current tv contract until 2025. Now we may not get the $30+ mil that was rumored going around, but there will be a per school increase. The SEC is just way too important to not only both networks, but to college football fans for that to be the case. Obviously one of us will be eatting crow on this subject, but I just can’t see the SEC’s tv contract being 3rd or 4th in comparasion to the other conferences.
And this notion that the SEC won’t be able to raid the ACC is ludicrous too. Now will VT come, maybe/maybe not. But if the SEC wanted FSU or Clemson or even GT, they would jump at the chance to come over.
It has been somewhat entertaining reading and being a part of this blog since the whole conference expansion craze started a year or so back. I found the B1G slant to the whole process facinating as well. The fact that so many assumed that the SEC would just sit idolly by and watch the B1G and Pac 12 make all of the moves was somewhat foolish in retrospect (although at first I fell into this catagory as well). But the SEC has now shown that not only is it not afraid to upset the apple cart (so to say), but that it is willing to do just that. If anyone thinks that Silve doesn’t already have his plan made and set in motion, then you have to be just blind.
Now I guess I could be wrong in all of this, but something tells me I’m not. If I am, I’ll be the first to admit it though.
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Bamatab, there have been recent media reports that support both SEC getting more money or the contracts remaining unchanged, so I’m not sure what to believe at this point. One thing that may be overlooked is the fact that a larger conference has larger inventory. The SEC contracts won’t change the amount of games that they are providing to CBS/ABC. The larger inventory may be all they need to drive revenue growth, maybe even via an SEC network.
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SEC has traditionally been 3rd or 4th. ACC, B1G and Pac have bigger markets. For a while even the BE had a bigger contract. The increase in the relative value of fb has changed the situation, but the markets are still a factor. And the B1G still has more brands. The ACC and Big 12 have as many brands even if they don’t have the “near brands.”
And to paraphrase Frank, think like a TV executive. CBS still gets one game and that game won’t involve the new members that often. There’s more value, but how much more? Is there even 2/14ths? What value is there to ESPN? They pay as much for second tier rights for SEC schools as they do for primary, secondary and tertiary rights for the ACC. Why should they want to pay more and get less for something they have locked up for 15 years? For A&M they are trading primary rights for second tier rights and possibly lowering the profitability of their B12 contract. The SEC can offer more inventory, but does ESPN want more SEC inventory? And this inventory wouldn’t be the top games-CBS & ESPN already have those. They couldn’t handle all the Pac wanted to offer. ESPN has plenty of SEC games and is going to want to diversify its offerings and not go all in on a particular conference. Even the SEC has some down years in football.
And finally, for all the talk of contract complexity for the Aggies, ESPN has to have its lawyers really working overtime. What is their risk if they pay more for a team in the SEC than for the same team in an existing contract? Their conflict of interest with the LHN is nothing compared to that conflict.
The networks have a lot more power than the conferences, especially ESPN. And anyone who gets mad probably isn’t going to be around in 2025 when the contract is up for bid again. That ESPN will quake whenever the SEC calls is IMHO just a ridiculous idea. They want them happy, but not at the expense of their profitability. Remember, ESPN is the customer.
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Actually, to think that ESPN is the customer is false in my opinion. The customers are actually the viewers of the games. ESPN is the distributor of the product being sold, and the product is the conferences. ESPN and CBS want to provide the customers with the best product possible, and the SEC is about to increase the value of that product by adding increased tv markets in growing population areas, and by adding competitive football teams.
Also, currently CBS only shows 1 game a week (with a 1 or 2 week exception where they show 2). That can increase based on new terms, and CBS might find that advantageous. CBS gets first choice, and ESPN gets second choice. CBS could decide to buy some of those 2nd tier rights from ESPN, and still leave ESPN with exciting second and third tier games to show if the SEC expands. The SEC could also agree to play more games throughout the week for ESPN. Most SEC teams currently do not like to do that (with the exception of Miss St, auburn, & USCe), but that could change with a bigger paycheck.
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@Bamatab – Here’s the way to look at it: in TV, the advertisers are the customers and WE (the viewers) are the product that the networks are selling. The programs that can deliver the most and/or highest quality product to customers are the most valuable (and paid accordingly).
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I don’t see the SEC schools doing weeknights. Basically noone with really good home attendance wants to do that. And if they wanted, they could do that with 12.
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I’ll say it again: if Slive really locked the SEC into a substandard TV contract for 15 years out (with no chance for an increase even though the SEC knew TAM would likely be on the table), he’s not the mastermind alot of people think he is.
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jcfreder,
Nobody thinks Slive has them totally locked in for 15 years. But the SEC may only get a bump from $18M now to $20M (that’s an extra $420M overall from CBS & ESPN), for example. That’s a big difference from the $30-40M per year per school that some folks have been suggesting.
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Plus, the SEC TV contract wasn’t substandard back when it was signed. Did any of us foresee the explosion in college football TV rights values back when the SEC made their deal? I certainly didn’t read anyone in the media saying that the SEC was stupid for signing such a long-term deal with expansion looming and TV right fees exploding back when ink was put to paper.
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Nobody said the SEC was locked in? Frank point blank said “Plus, with the amount that ESPN is paying the Pac-12 now and with the Big Ten contract going up for bid in a couple of years, it doesn’t make any sense that the network would give the SEC any ability to increase its rights fees prior to 2024.”
As it turns out, that’s almost certainly incorrect. The SEC deserves a higher payout with TAMU and will probably get one. My point was that Slive would not put the SEC in a position to have to turn TAMU down because of being locked into a certain dollar amount (at a time when everyone knew that TAMU was very unstable in the B12 and that in any case, major expansion moves in the next 15 years were likely).
Keep in mind that the more realignment chaos there is, the SEC is probably in a position to benefit from it. (Basically, if the wishbone is going to break, the SEC (and B10 and P12) is in a position to end up with a larger portion. A smaller conference such as the BE should be looking for the security of a long-term deal. The SEC should not want to be locked in, because renegotiations wil likely help them — case in point, they make a major positive move by adding TAMU.
Anyway, the SEC isn’t dumb – they’ll see an increase in their rights by adding TAMU, as they should.
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jcfreder,
“Nobody said the SEC was locked in?”
Yes. Everybody knows that the SEC has room for some renegotiation, so they aren’t locked in. They can’t get out of the contract, so they are locked in in that sense. What Frank and others are arguing is that the SEC has no leverage to get a giant per team raise. If CBS and ESPN just keep the same per team payouts, that’s $540M dollars more for the SEC. Each $1M per team per year raise is another $210M. If the SEC goes from $18M to $25M, that would be an extra $1.5B. There are limits to how generous the networks will be since they have signed contracts. At the very least, they’ll provide a minimal bump while waiting 4 or so years to get actual data on the value added in the expansion. Then they can sit down with the SEC with actual data and negotiate a “fair” deal.
There are also the legal issues for ABC/ESPN. They have to be very careful in how much they pay the B12 and SEC in this process or they risk a major lawsuit.
What you and so many people get wrong is that you give the SEC all the power. The networks have the power because they have signed contracts, and even Slive admits they only have look ins. If they had full renegotiation clauses, he would have mentioned it by now. The SEC will get a bump, but I don’t think it’ll be the huge raise many expect. Both sides take a risk when they sign a deal. If the networks fold this time, every other conference will demand similar treatment from now on. That means only the networks are taking risk. Why would they be dumb enough to do that?
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AggieYell.com via Mr SEC:
Top two targets for team #14 are Va Tech and Missouri.
http://www.mrsec.com/2011/08/report-am-to-sec-in-2012/#comments
If its Mizzou they better give notice this year, because the buyout increases when the new FOX contract kicks in.
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Unless the core of the ACC (specifically, UVa) gives their blessing because they intend on heading to the B10, the SEC isn’t getting VTech. Even then, if the ACC breaks up, UVa & VTech both heading north is more likely.
Taking Mizzou likely pushes the OK schools (and thus Texas) in to the Pac. Not sure the SEC wants that.
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If we could stop at Oklahoma and Notre Dame, I’d go for it in a heart beat.
Unfortunately, it seems like the world has to end to land either.
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OU wants to come. The problem is that OK State is tied to them at least until Boone Pickens dies.
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Just because Oklahoma wants to come (setting aside the Okie State problem) doesn’t necessarily mean that Big Ten presidents are interested. Ask the folks at Missouri.
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@vp19 – OU’s academics are really on cusp of Big Ten acceptability, but the thing that’s unquestioned is that they’re bringing maximum value in the most important category: football power. Mizzou, like Richard said, is good in a lot of areas but not necessarily stellar in anything. I agree with the others that if OU could move without Oklahoma State, then the Big Ten should (or at least should push really hard to) add them. There are only so many football powers out there, so whether OU ends up in the Pac-12, SEC or Big Ten makes a massive difference. It’s likely moot, though, as T. Boone Pickens would likely kill an OU-only move instantly.
IMHO, football value is even more critical in a superconference scenario (to the extent is already doesn’t mean everything). The whole reason why 16-school leagues would be formed in the first place is for football (beyond just TV markets), so just conceding schools like OU, VT, FSU and Miami to other conferences isn’t wise.
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Frank – I look at OU amd OU State like this. In the business world many times companies up for sale get offers and are turn them down. But those same companies tell the company up for sale if you do this and this then we are willing to meet an agreed price. I think the B1G told OU that very same thing. Remember the leak was OU, OU State, and two other schools. I think if it was just OU and OU State and if they had a plan and began to spend on academics then a offer could come. It could come without the CIC until they reached an agreed level. B1G wants ND but I really don’t think they will get them. I think the BE will land them.
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TiqIQ releases top 25—-Nebraska #1, Michigan is #3, and four other B1G teams ranked.
Their rankings are based on the average price of a team’s home games, also shows AP ranking.
The complete list:
http://www.tiqiq.com/tiqiqtop25/
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Bamatab, I think the problem that the SEC faces is the same that the Big Ten faces. It’s really tough to get to 14 or 16 teams and be sure that you’re getting the teams that you want due to timing issues.
The SEC’s top targets are probably FSU, Va Tech, Missouri, WVU. As we’ve all discussed, it’s just hard to be sure that the school a conference wants is available. Texas A&M is available right now, but Va Tech and FSU may not be available. Timing is everything with expansion because conference instability tends to be the driving factor. Hard to see the SEC going after Clemson (or Georgia Tech) unless all 4 of those schools say no.
After all, why do you think the Big Ten stayed at 11 all those years? Notre Dame said no several times, and Nebraska probably wasn’t ready (i.e. king status along with available due to conference instability) until this year.
The SEC is going to find out the same thing if they can’t just grab FSU or Va Tech. You only have 3 more spots to get to 16, you can’t waste any of them…
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All of this is under the assumption that A&M is wrapped in a bow and on its way to the SEC already to be #13.
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You’re not seriously suggesting that aTm isn’t going to end up in the SEC, are you? The SEC wants aTm badly (despite what they said), and aTm wants in the SEC badly as well. I think aTm to the SEC is a foregone conclusion.
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My point is that even assuming that, you can’t make assumptions about #14 with respect to whether ACC teams are available.
Conference stability is often the determinative factor. Look at just a couple of years ago when the Big East and ACC were in the midst of their battle. That was where the action was, schools in those conferences were probably available for the taking by the Big Ten or SEC back then.
Right now though, only the Big 12 is in a period of instability. As I said before, the Big Ten stayed at 11 for the very reason that there wasn’t a good #12 around or willing to join until Nebraska came up last year.
The SEC may find the same thing out about its #14 team. Va Tech and FSU are going to be tough to pry from a stable ACC if those are the teams that Slive has his eye on…
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If TAMU to SEC was a foregone conclusion, it’d already be done.
I think they are likely to move, but its not certain.
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What is done in public and what is done behind the scenes is two very different things.
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I agree that A&M wants in and Slive wants A&M. That the TV$ work out sufficiently for the SEC Presidents is still a potential roadblock.
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Really, some self-deluded types here. A&M to the SEC is done. It’s been done for a couple weeks to allow for the window dressing. It will be announced next Thursday.
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Count me in the skeptical crowd. The SEC has two options for expansion:
1. Invite a 14th school of unknown appeal. If they have ruled out in-state schools, VT has genuinely turned them down, Oklahoma doesn’t want to join/must bring OKST, and the joint UNC/NCSU regents have decided neither will join, what options remain? Missouri? WVU? ECU? It’s not a compelling group.
2. Stay at 13 semipermanently. This option looks more and more appealing, but it obviously has a wealth of scheduling and balance issues.
To me, neither of those seems compelling enough to break the status quo.
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Agreed, this is the main point I was making.
The Pac-12 was willing to settle to get its CCG. The Big Ten wasn’t and waited 20 years for Nebraska to join Penn State’s addition to 12. The SEC did something similar to the Pac-12.
The problem is that now spots are limited. There’s only 4 seats at the table left. You know A&M has one of the SEC’s final four spots, but the problem is that you have to maximize the other 3. only FSU and Va Tech can really do that for the SEC.
If you can’t get FSU and Va Tech, do you really want to charge to 14? Slive and the SEC presidents will have to determine that.
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I don’t think that VT has genuinely turned the SEC down yet (they may end up doing it, but I doubt that they have behind closed doors), OK has been totally quite on what they plan on doing, and I very seriously doubt that the UNC/NCST regents have decided what those schools will be allowed to do. In the end, I’m guessing if WVU is the last option, then the SEC would go back to UF/UGA/USCe and try and talk them back out of blocking the in state schools (actually 3 schools can’t block, they’d need one more school to vote their way).
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Bamatab:
Considering that VTech has already stated reasons for why they think the ACC is a better fit for them than the SEC, I’m not sure why you think the Hokies would want to join the SEC. Again, the only scenario I can see where the Hokies end up in the SEC is where the core of the ACC wants to join the B10 and is OK with letting VTech go. Even then, I think VTech and UVa are tied given what it took to get VTech in to the ACC last time. UNC + NCSU to the SEC & UVa + Vtech to the B10 is more likely (IMHO now).
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Again, the only scenario I can see where the Hokies end up in the SEC is where the core of the ACC wants to join the B10 and is OK with letting VTech go. Even then, I think VTech and UVa are tied given what it took to get VTech in to the ACC last time. UNC + NCSU to the SEC & UVa + Vtech to the B10 is more likely (IMHO now).
The 2003 Tech-ACC imbroglio was less about Tech entering the ACC, though it was something officials there had sought since the conference’s inception in 1953. (Tech and West Virginia were not invited because both had sided with the rest of the Southern Conference over its no-bowl policy in 1951, something Maryland and Clemson broke and which led to them and several other SC members leaving to start the ACC). The main reason was fear that the ACC’s raid would doom the Big East as a football conference and leave Tech with no BCS conference. (When the SEC expanded some 20 years ago, Tech really wasn’t a force in college football, and thus wasn’t then a candidate.) Tech and UVa have never really been perceived as tied at the hip; they would still play each other in all sports were they in different conferences.
And for cultural reasons, not to mention its ties to Duke, I can’t see UNC heading to the SEC. I think state officials would be comfortable with NCSU in the SEC if Chapel Hill lands a comparable home (read Big Ten).
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Richard,
You can’t rely on what these universities or conferences say in public. Heck not even a couple of weeks ago, the SEC presidents said that they were happy at 12 and weren’t looking at adding aTm. Yet now aTm has taken their first step in leaving the Big 12 and joining the SEC. Just because VT makes a public statement saying how much they like it in the ACC, doesn’t mean that behind the scenes that is the case. The VT to SEC rumblings are starting to grow. Even the local media in Virginia is starting to hear rumblings that VT may be willing to consider listening to the SEC: http://www.roanoke.com/sports/notebookplus/wb/297251
Now I’m not saying that I think that VT is a lock to join the SEC, I’m just saying you can’t rely on what the university reps say publically at this point. Keep in mind that expansion is about two main things, football and money. VT is a football school in a basketball conference. The SEC is a stronger football conference and currently pays more per school than the ACC. Any other factors are just red herrings when it comes to expansion.
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I understand that, and that is why it wouldn’t suprise me if the SEC stayed at 13 for the 2012 season before adding the 14th team. That way we can be sure to cover all of the bases and determine which teams are actually a good fit and are willing to leave their conferences. I think the ACC is current in a precarious situation right now. I think most of the members realize that if given the chance, that Clemson and FSU would jump. The problem there is that UF, USCe, & UGA do not want schools from their states to join. I also have to think that some of the ACC schools are somewhat worried about the future of the Miami program. It is one thing for a Bama, USC, or OSU to get hit with sanctions, but Miami probably does not have the same kind of support (both monetary and fanbase) to be able to recover from truely major sanctions. I know that if I was an ACC, I’d be looking at all of my options.
I truely think that WV & Mizzou are the fall back plans. I think VT and NCST (I think they aould prefer UNC, but even I don’t see that happening) are the top targets. We’ll see how it plays out, but I would be very surpised if the SEC has to rely on it’s fall back plans.
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I actually agree on the point re: Miami. If there was ever a situation that could create conference instability in the ACC, it’d be Miami facing a decade of mediocrity because that would mean the other king in FSU is the only thing carrying the football brand of the conference other than Va Tech.
And yeah I agree on WVU and Missouri, I don’t see either ending up in the SEC. I think the SEC may be willing to wait as long as 2-3 years for Va Tech or NC State if it thinks it can get them instead. Those two schools offer a solid entry into the Mid-Atlantic region, especially Va Tech with how well developed their brand has become over the past 2 decades.
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If I’m Slive, I try to persuade Delany that Notre Dame is unattainable, Texas makes too many demands and Oklahoma doesn’t cut it academically for Big Ten presidents, so for him to get a “home run,” it’s best for the Big Ten’s academic/athletic/research interests and needs (which are different from the SEC’s) to take in the ACC “core four” of Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and Duke; Notre Dame can always come in eventually as a #17, bringing the partner of its choosing as #18. This allows the SEC to get both Tech and State for the Virginia and North Carolina markets, probably adding Missouri as its #16. (Slive would probably prefer Florida State, but plan B would be to isolate FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami — to the benefit of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina — by relegating them to some sort of ACC-Big East football hybrid).
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That’s probably the only approach I would support that doesn’t include another football national brand (on the way to 16).
That’s the population/recruiting approach in terms of enabling the Big Ten to dominate one of the major growth regions (California, Texas, Florida, Mid-Atlantic). If the Big Ten were to assimilate the Mid-Atlantic region and overtime enable Nebraska/Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State to funnel out a ton of recruits (as the former Big 8 schools have done in Texas), I really think that would solve all of the population growth/recruiting issues the Big Ten schools will have as Ohio/Midwest football recruiting wanes relatively due to demographics changes.
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Why stop at 16? 20 could actually let the original Big10 schools play each other more frequently than 16, and it could put the BTN in several big population high growth areas (mid-Atlantic, GA, & FL).
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I think your timing issue is relevant. This Miami thing could take a long time to resolve-too long to impact this. And Miami may do enough that the NCAA doesn’t devastate them. I don’t think the SEC waits very long. 13 is a real mess.
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Then the question is whether the SEC is willing to settle. Because that’s what taking A&M as #13 without having Va Tech or FSU locked up at #14 is likely to mean.
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The Miami thing won’t take longer than a year or 2 years max to resolve. The SEC can stay at 13 teams for that long (heck the MAC does it on a normal, everyday basis). Plus the longer that it takes for the Miami punishments to be handed out, the more antsy that the other conference members will get.
What has become evident since the ACC expanded is that the interest in their football games from a national perspective isn’t what a lot of people thought it would be. Heck, they can’t even sellout their conference championship games. If it appears that the SEC is looking to get even stronger, while the ACC may get weaker, then that might be enough insentive for a VT or NCST to jump over.
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The MAC has been desperately trying to get a #14. And they don’t have the 7 or 8 home games that SEC teams desire. Its a lot bigger mess for the SEC. Will 4 teams want to play 9 conference games? Or will 4 settle for 7? Will they only count division games in something that could mean a shot at a BCS bowl instead of a shot at the Motor City Bowl?
I can see 2 years, but beyond that the ADs will start throwing things at Slive.
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Bama: I’m sure Clemson would jump. I’m not sure FSU would jump to the SEC considering that they chose the ACC over the SEC last time and significant members at FSU have said they want no part of the SEC. I think the B10 has a good chance at FSU, Miami, and GTech as a group.
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Zeek:
Actually, Nebraska publicly said they wanted to go to the Big10 way back when PSU joined. However, until the BTN came along, there was no extra impetus to expand to add a school that was below the B10 average academically.
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If, if, if ND ever joined B1G as 13th school, I’m sure they would have major influence who #14 would be. I wonder what school they would want? Any good ideas?
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Pitt probably would be the most acceptable to both sides. BC might be a take it or leave it kind of offer that ND would make if it wanted another smaller private school in the mix. Rutgers might be a good choice if Delany had his eye on NYC, except that we all know Rutgers can’t really deliver that…
Missouri probably offers the strongest football choice that would be available.
Maryland might be a compromise to reach into the Mid-Atlantic (if they were available).
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My guess would be ND-Missouri if the Maryland/Va/Va Tech schools are unavailable…
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Mizzou doesn’t actually do anything at all for ND, though. If limited to 1, they’d want one of BC or GTech, though I think you’d need a Big20 to get ND in.
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I think ND and Rutgers would be a great combo. RU is entry in NY and ND,PSU,UM help deliver.
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But yea, to be more direct in answering your question, I think the only schools that ND would probably try to make a push for are Pitt or BC.
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The mizzou chancellor, Brady Deaton, is curently head of the big 12 presidents and has said repeatedly that Missouri is only interested in strengthening the Big 12. No one really liked the 12 team league set up and none of the coaches liked to play in the conference championship game for football. But since SEC wants to get bigger, Big 12 may have to keep up with the Jones’ next door and add 3. I don’t buy Frank’s argument that ND’s not interested in money or joining a conference. You play mediocre ball for 5 more years and see if NBC is still interested in being the ND network? ALl their gomes would end up on Versus. NBC has new owners now. Not sure that’s a forever done deal. With huge conferences getting bigger which allows for powder puff scheduling (see Illini schedule this year) for the first 3 games of the season, scheduling quality teams for ND will get tougher. Who wants to play ND when they can open up with Eastern Illinois? I give it a 50-50 shot that ND could join. The other two? Would like to see Arizona and Arizona State defect to the Big 12. They both have long histories playing Texas teams before they joined the PAC 10. BYU? Nah. ND wanna bees.
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They’ve already played mediocre ball for 15 years…………….what’s 5 more?
It seems to me ND might join for more “political” reasons. The SEC has already won 5 NCs in a row. Adding A@M and MO/WVU (the other schools aren’t coming, for various reasons) only makes them stronger in terms of recruiting, on field success, and political power. I see this long-term as refighting the Cival War……..and ND might be stronger if it joins forces with OSU, UM, PSU, NEB….
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AZ schcools to the UTen? Is that something you would just like for personal reasons or is it something you think could actually happen? I have to think its the 1st because there is zero incentive for the AZ schools to leave the Pac. They just signed a monster deal with more revenue (projected) in the future with the Pac Network system. No reason to move from a hunter conference to the prey.
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The Big East school that Notre Dame plays most often in football is Pittsburgh. I have to imagine Penn State would support that (even if Paterno wasn’t happy about it) and Pitt certainly fits into the mold of schools that would “fit” in the Big Ten both academically and athletically.
The main reason why they aren’t in the Big Ten now is location and the school’s value to the Big Ten Network in terms of market. etc. They aren’t a big enough national name in terms of football to be a compelling matchup on a weekly basis (perhaps outside of an annual Pitt-PSU game) and the school is physically placed between Ohio State and Penn State.
Since Notre Dame has so many cultural and religious connections with the metropolitan areas in the northeast corridor from New England to DC, I imagine their other choices would be the programs located there. Syracuse and Maryland are the first two that come to mind. I know ND wanted to play Rutgers, but RU rebuffed them when ND said it didn’t want to play in the Scarlet Knights’ home stadium. I think the same thing happened with Connecticut–I don’t know if that would color ND’s options or not.
The only other school I could see Notre Dame supporting–realistically or not–is Navy. USNA is a long-standing game and having them in the conference would allow ND to schedule two of their three non-conference games (with the third tied in to USC). withou having to drop Navy. I don’t know if the Big Ten would have an appetite for this, but I could perhaps see Notre Dame propositing it.
If Notre Dame was really interested in helping its new confernce, then I could see it using whatever influence it does have with getting Texas into the conference. I’m not convinced it’s much more beyond schedule four games with UT in the future, but Texas remains a major candidate. I don’t think UT going to the B1G is likely in any case due to fit, conference culture, etc., but I wouldn’t put it completely outside the realsm of possibility.
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Why would Paterno not want Pitt? He’s actively lobbied for them to be a Big Ten member.
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/psu/20021120psu1120p4.asp
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4118848
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I assume cutter is referring to JoePa’s reluctance to play Pitt since joining the B10. He has wanted another eastern team in the B10 and has advocated Pitt as one possibility for that slot. He isn’t anti-Pitt so much as he is against playing Pitt OOC regularly.
From the PG article in 2002:
“Our problem is we have to play eight games in the Big Ten,” Paterno said. “If the Big Ten added a 12th team, and we only had to play six or seven [conference] games, that would be a great opportunity for us to get back to playing Pitt. In fact, I’d love to see the Big Ten try and get Pitt to be that 12th team.
“We have Alabama home and home, we have Nebraska home and home. We have to have that sixth home game for revenue because of the 29 sports we [fund] at Penn State. And we have alumni all over the world who want us to play in California, the Southeast, Southwest, New England. It’s kind of tough for me to predict that we could play Pitt home and home within the next seven or eight years.”
Good luck getting only 6 or 7 conference games, Joe.
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JoePa isn’t reluctant to play Pitt per se. He (or the PSU athletic department in general, whomever is making the scheduling decisions) doesn’t want to play anyone regularly OOC. The school has gone on record as preferring to play a variety of teams (especially using precious away game slots) over long term series.
Pitt fans like to construe this as some deep felt hatred for Pitt on Paterno’s part, but there’s no evidence that such a thing exists. Treating Pitt like Syracuse and Rutgers and BC doesn’t mean that Paterno has some mythical grudge against the Panthers.
Anyway, back to the topic, I would think Paterno and PSU would be thrilled to see Pitt invited to the Big Ten. Any invite that orients the conference more to the East would be great for the Nittany Lions, especially a school with which PSU has a long history.
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SSB,
I think the difference is that Pitt isn’t Syracuse, Rutgers or BC. PSU/Pitt was a huge rivalry. PSU could have chosen to alternate between Pitt and an intersectional opponent to keep the rivalry alive. Instead, they’ll go 16 years between games (last played in 2000, next time is 2016).
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Brian,
Treating Pitt like those other teams is a perfectly reasonable stance for PSU to take. Pitt might not like it, but there is not reason why PSU should feel obligated to give Pitt some special treatment just because they’ve played a lot of football games. Syracuse has traditionally been a strong rival as well, for example.
Anyhow, my point simple was — and is — that there is no evidence that Paterno carries any sort of grudge against Pitt. It’s just a myth propogated by some in the Pitt fan base and Pittsburgh media who don’t like Paterno and want to blame him for PSU not playing Pitt. But there’s no actual evidence to support that Paterno cares at all about Pitt and the recently signed football deal between PSU and Pitt is further evidence of it. PSU has just been against a long term balanced deal with Pitt, just as they’ve been against it with any team. But PSU has offered a two year series for years; it was Pitt who never wanted it before this past year.
On the topic of expansion, I would expect Paterno and PSU to fully support Pitt as a member for the Big Ten. My poitn of contention was the silly statement that Paterno would be against it because of some non-existent grudge he doesn’t actually hold against Pitt. Especially given that Paterno has actually advocated for Pitt’s membership in the Big Ten.
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SideshowBob,
Treating Pitt like those other teams is a perfectly reasonable stance for PSU to take.
Yes, and no. Pitt wasn’t like those other teams before, they were a cut above in terms of the rivalry. Pitt is also an in-state rival, which generally means more to the fans. It would be like OSU treating MI and PSU as the same if OSU was no longer in the B10. PSU may be a rivalry for OSU, but it ain’t MI. One could say it’s perfectly reasonable, but that doesn’t make it totally true.
Anyhow, my point simple was — and is — that there is no evidence that Paterno carries any sort of grudge against Pitt.
I agree there is no smoking gun. It is all interpretation of JoePa’s words and PSU’s actions as far as I know. I’m not in his head so I won’t claim to know his true feelings about Pitt. Nobody but the ADs really know what their discussions have been like in the past in regards to the series. I’ll just say it’s odd that they let the rivalry go unplayed for so long, but I’m not casting blame on one side or the other (both are to blame to some extent).
As for the comment that irked you, I think that poster was conflating the issues of scheduling OOC games and expansion in his head. It is perfectly reasonable for PSU and Pitt to struggle with OOC scheduling but both want Pitt to join the B10 as that would solve the scheduling issue.
Remember that to most people, JoePa is PSU and PSU is JoePa. What PSU does or doesn’t do, most people ascribe to JoePa.
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Here are the Big Ten’s three options in the near term and medium term that I see as being likely:
1) Stand pat at 12 (i.e. wait for Notre Dame). By far the most likely thing to happen until the Pac-12 makes another run at Texas to shake up the BCS and move us closer to a 4×16-like world (regardless of whether we make it all the way to 4×16) because that’s the time when Notre Dame may consider joining the Big Ten, which enables a Notre Dame + 1 (Maryland, Rutgers, or Missouri as the 14th…).
2) Consider Oklahoma/Missouri or something involving Oklahoma in a move to 14. This is highly unlikely because of academics issues since the COP/C is unlikely to approve a non-AAU at this point unless it is named Notre Dame. I would guess that this is Delany’s favored route to 14 without Texas or Notre Dame since it would more than pay for itself.
3) Go for the ACC-4 strategy if the Miami thing ends harming the ACC because it helps to free teams to go to the SEC (i.e. FSU and/or Va Tech). While this is unlikely because of the current stability of the ACC, we don’t know the long term situation. This approach would mitigate the population/recruiting issues that the Big Ten is more likely to face in the future as Ohio/Midwest fades as a football recruiting ground. The Big Ten’s kings along with Iowa/Wisconsin would probably be able to lock down the top recruits in those states that choose not to play for the Mid-Atlantic schools themselves. Obviously, the cultural issues for a group of tobacco road schools joining is an issue as well as the fact that they’d be in a separate pod which might bring up assimilation issues. But, this expansion would more than pay for itself for the long haul even if it doesn’t bring in any football brands. This is highly unlikely because it would be a cultural stretch and more of a land grab than anything else.
I don’t see any other options because teams #13 and #14 have to at least pay for themselves without the benefit of an added CCG as Nebraska had going for it (but it obviously more than pays for itself as we’ll see in 2016, even excluding the CCG). While a Missouri/Rutgers or Maryland/Rutgers expansion would be feasible, I don’t think we’re looking for those kinds of teams yet. I do think Delany wants another national brand on the road to 14 or some kind of alternative like the ACC-4.
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No. 1 is really the best strategy at this point, and certainly the most realistic. It took the B10 almost 20 years to get a 12th team, the thought that they would add two more seems very unlikely, unless there was a possibility of adding UT, ND, or A&M. Even if the P10 and SEC expanded to 14 or 16 teams, is there a reason for the B10 to follow? Let the P10 and SEC figure out if 14/16 team conferences work.
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Yeah, I made the point earlier, and the main reason why I put those scenarios as the only real possibilities (even though #1 is far more likely than #2 and #3 combined even), is that the Big Ten will not settle in expansion choices.
It stayed at 11 teams for 2 decades. If that isn’t evidence enough that the Big Ten will wait a long time for the right set of teams to come along, I don’t know what is.
I definitely think the next move is to 14 (not 13 because #13 will be the team that justifies a 2 team expansion, i.e. ND), but the Big Ten’s unwillingness to move to #12 without ND and eventually Nebraska over the past 20 years, definitely would seem to be a preview of the future.
The BTN does change the terms of the game, but not as much as you’d think when you consider that the Nebraska expansion was still focused on the national scope of the conference.
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Some random thoughts:
1) Is there anything in the NCAA rulebook that stops the Longhorns from setting up a new Big 12 this way?:
Alpha Division: ND, UT, OU, BYU
Beta Division: 8 other schools.
Maybe ND would be fine with just 3 conference games a year.
2) A wildcard for Pac 16 expansion if they believe UT won’t join: Hawaii. It would be totally out of place in the ‘Interior Division’, but:
a) If the Pac 12 is serious about marketing in Asia, Hawaii has value
b) Having conference schools play 4-5 games a year there means those schools can each add another football game, which means the Pac 16 network would have up to 5 extra football games a year.
c) Hawaii would be happy to play in whatever division they said.
Not really expecting it, but I wouldn’t be shocked by OU, OSU, Hawaii, and Missouri or Texas Tech.
It would be worth it just to enjoy the Lubbock V. Honolulu rivalry
3) I’m glad my school appears to be moving up in conference alignment.
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Rule 17.9.5.2 Annual Exemptions. [FBS/FCS] The maximum number of football contests shall exclude the following:
(c) Twelve-Member Conference Championship Game. [FBS/FCS] A conference championship game between division champions of a member conference of 12 or more institutions that is divided into two divisions (of six or more institutions each), each of which conducts round-robin, regular-season competition among the members of that division;
This is the rule you’re looking for…
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@M (Ag) – This board is a lot more fun when your school is in a secure place and your conference isn’t the one on the brink.
Enjoy the Big 12 Refs!
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A Longhorn who thinks the LHN is designed to blow up the Big 12:
http://barkingcarnival.fantake.com/2011/08/25/billion-dollar-bevo-part-i-inside-the-utespn-longhorn-network-deal/
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Question… I just read the 50-page UT/ESPN/IMG contract and noticed that not all parties have signed the appendixes. Are there any lawyers out there who can tell us whether the contract is legal and binding if it lacks signatures by all parties on any or all parts part of the document?
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I think most of the same rules from last year with Big 12 possible expansion still apply. There is no big advantage in adding another Texas school as they don’t add much attention in the state the conference doesn’t already get and none of the choices are really big enough national names to be a factor on that level either. Even if Texas wanted them for its own reasons, I don’t see the 5 non Texas schools going for it. I know a lot of people like to talk about all the power Texas has but given the decisions the Big 12 has made the last couple of months (increase conference games to 9, increase % of TV contract revenue), I don’t think they can just force an expansion others don’t want or would even try.
My guess is they push hard for BYU and probably get them. They’ll want to show at least something after their 3rd loss, but I’m not convinced going to 12 now is any more justifiable than last summer. I do think Louisville and/or TCU would probably yes in the end though.
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These are my thoughts…
I have a hard time believing the Texas State Lege will allow A&M to bolt without adding another PUBLIC Texas University to the BCS AQ mix. Why should Utah get 2 added in a few years and Texas only get one? Time to fire up that Texas State rivalry! (j/k, sorta).
Sooo… BYU and mystery 2nd (Texas Public) school to replace A&M and Mizzou.
If Big? stays at 10 members, put TX/OU on “Championship Weekend” in Dallas Cowboys Stadium or make it Home-and-home. UT/A&M and UT/ND replacing TX/OU on alternating years as an OOC games at the Texas State Fair in the Dallas Cotton Bowl in September would be cool with me.
but…
if it could entice ND to become a “full” member… Wouldn’t mind adding Air Force,Navy,and Army, to the mix.hey I can dream. Would then need 2 more members to get to 16. Maryland/Pitt are my personal favorites.
Dream Conference:
MD Pitt Army Navy
ND IowaSt Kansas KState
OU OSU TexSt (or whoever), Baylor
BYU, AF, TxTech, Texas
That would be a great combination of National Powerhouse Teams, National Fanbases, a National Patriotic Feel, and no current Big XII team is dumped, not even the little guys only the people that want to leave are not considered (A&M and Mizzou). Plus, Mormons and Baptists and Catholics, Oh MY! Religeous freedom, big money, and and patriotism. And with this allignment UT/A&M could replace TX/OU as anOOC Cotton Bowl game in September every year
Conference I think is more realistic if i take off my BurntOrange Koolaide-Helmet:
BYU/NewMexico/UNLV/AirForce
TX/Baylor//TxTech/(TxSt,Htown,N.Texas,or UTEP [let the Texas Politicos duke that one out])
OU/OSU/Louiville/Tulane
Kansas/KSU/IowaSt/Memphis
At least with that alignment you are almost guaranteed a yearly cool road trip to Austin, Vegas, New Orleans, and Memphis all in the conference. 4 cool cities, one in each pod.
4 pod system recap:
Play everyone in your pod every year. Play one other pod on rotating basis home and home.
However, instead of an 8th (or 9th) conference game how about…
A 2-GAME PLAYOFF FOR THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 4 POD WINNERS!!!
Semifinal home games based on conference record, Championship Game in Jerryworld in Dallas. All other non conference-playoff teams playing another conference opponent from an un-played pod based on random draw, best record hosts on Thursday/Friday/Sat before championship game.
These are my thoughts. They seem less crazy in my head.
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The Texas state legislature doesn’t have the power to dictate to the Big 12 who to invite though. They can compel Texas and Tech voting (or could stop A&M from leaving), but that’s it. If you can’t convince the 6 non-Texas to go along, there’s no way another Texas team enters and I doubt those 6 want another member enough to add another Texas team after being forced into it.
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What are you going to call that…the CCC?
(Central Creationism Conference)
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http://www.mrsec.com/2011/08/sec-expansion-a-warning-letter-and-slim-pickins/
Mr. SEC looks at the options for #14 and doesn’t like what he sees.
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http://www.kansascity.com/2011/08/25/3097784/talking-points-big-12-doesnt-have.html
A KC paper looks at B12 expansion options and it isn’t pretty.
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Both articles neglected to mention TCU …
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I think the assumption is that if another TX school gets added, it will be a state school. Unlike SMU, TCU hasn’t been begging to get in the B12. Besides, TCU will probably do better elsewhere rather than being in a conference with UT.
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Since when has begging helped anyone? Didn’t exactly work wonders for Missouri last year. SMU can make all the noise they want, it won’t make them a viable candidate. And all this talk about Houston is pretty amusing. They have trouble filling their sorry little stadium, they can’t seem to raise the funds for a new one, and they don’t exactly “deliver” the Houston market. The only advantage they offer is that UT could force them to play in Reliant Stadium every other year, but they already do that with Rice. The Longhorns already have a “Tech problem” – I doubt they want a “Houston problem” to go along with it.
And who says I’m gunning for the Big 12? If the SEC needs a 14th, maybe another private school would help assuage Vandy’s concerns. Mr. SEC at least took the time to mention Baylor before dismissing them out of hand; he could have done that much for the Frogs.
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Houston is actually making progress on their stadium. They’re up to around $61 million in pledges and are still working on naming rights. They want $80 million of the $120 million before starting. I think SMU is just trying to get their name out there. They have no chance for Big 12. I doubt the SWC 4 have forgiven them for being the best professional team in Dallas for a while. But they might just be trying to raise their profile for recruiting or for an eventual move out of CUSA, whether to BE or MWC or some new best of the rest non-AQ conference.
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I’m a UH grad and I agree with Jake about UH having no shot at the Big XII. The only way UH becomes a hot candidate for re-alignment is when we start to dominate CUSA the way Boise State dominated the WAC. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen despite all this talk of a new stadium.
Mr SEC wrote “Baylor and Texas Tech would only get an invite if A&M lured them East and if the SEC was flat-out desperate. It’s not. Scratch ‘em.” I would include TCU in that statement, as well. Like my previous statement about UH, TCU is going to have to dominate the BE the way Boise dominated the WAC to become a strong candidate for re-alignment into the SEC or ACC or even B1G. They would be morons to want to join the unstable Big XII.
One more item from Mr SEC’s post. “So that leaves Missouri, West Virginia and Pittsburgh as possible dance partners who might have an interest in phoning up Slive.” Missouri should be greatful if the SEC extended them an invitation, but I get the feeling that like the schools in the ACC, Texas, and OU they see the SEC as a academically inferior. I do wonder if the SEC would seriously consider WVU or Pitt? I’ve never been to Morgantown, but I get the feeling from what I’ve heard and read that WVU would be a good cultural fit in the SEC. Pitt, not so much.
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Jake,
I didn’t say begging would help SMU, but it shows their interest in the B12. I don’t see any sign that TCU is interested. Why mention them if they don’t even seem to want to join?
Most people don’t think another TX school will be added. If one was, then UH makes some sense due to location and being a state school so UT and TT can be forced to support them in a vote. Baylor may be willing to add another TX team just for travel purposes, and UH would be a winnable game for them. If other B12 schools want regular trips to Houston for recruiting, they also might support UH.
Nobody said you were gunning for the Big 12. It’s the only other AQ league that might want TCU, though. If Vandy needs a private school, their best hope is Miami. The SEC isn’t going to waste a spot on TCU, SMU, Rice, Tulane or any other small southern private school.
TCU might start to get equally mentioned with Baylor once they are an AQ, but I’d guess it will take longer.
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Brian – yeah, TCU’s already getting loads more respect than Baylor and has been for awhile now, which is what makes the failure of both writers to mention the Frogs as an expansion candidate so curious.
And two things we all should have learned by now:
1) Texas politicians don’t/can’t exert as much influence over conference affiliation as we thought, and
2) No school or conference is under any obligation to provide us any amount of advance rumblings before announcing a move. And even if they were, have you heard ANYTHING suggesting Pitt is interested in the SEC? Didn’t stop Mr. SEC from bringing them up.
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Jake,
TCU’s current FB team gets more respect than Baylor’s. Many people still doubt if that will last past Patterson, much like BSU with Petersen. Both schools have been successful under multiple coaches, but their peaks are with the current guys. Most people still consider Baylor as more important than TCU since Baylor is AQ (not better, but more important). Such is life.
“1) Texas politicians don’t/can’t exert as much influence over conference affiliation as we thought”
All I said was that UT and TT could be forced to vote for UH. Not that they would be, but that they could be. If a bunch of other B12 schools wanted UH for the trips to Houston or some other reason, UT and TT might not be allowed to vote against UH. For political reasons, I doubt UT or TT would try to vote no anyway (they’ll let the out of state schools block UH).
“2) No school or conference is under any obligation to provide us any amount of advance rumblings before announcing a move. And even if they were, have you heard ANYTHING suggesting Pitt is interested in the SEC? Didn’t stop Mr. SEC from bringing them up.”
Yes, but Pitt is an AQ school with a FB history and is stuck in the BE. TCU is a non-AQ with a limited FB history that is aspiring to join the BE. Big difference. Mr. SEC explicitly limited his list to AQ schools. TCU isn’t AQ yet, so they didn’t make his list. Why does that bother you?
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Like I said before, the state legislature can’t/won’t do anything at the moment to keep Texas state schools in the same conference. They haven’t interfered to stop A&M, why would they step in for Houston, a school with far less rabid alumni support (sorry, Cougar High)? And again, UT certainly has reason to want them out – another Texas school could only serve to keep them anchored to the conference if they try to leave. The lege may not do anything now, but if UT threatens a move that would destroy the conference, yeah, that might get their attention. At least the Baylor grads.
Speaking of Baylor, you really think that AQ label means anything? I don’t know who these “most people” you keep talking about are, but if they think the Bears are a more valuable commodity than the Frogs because they’ve been leeching off of UT for the last 15 years, well, that doesn’t say much about “most people.” If Mr. SEC only considered current AQ programs, that’s a mistake. I’m not so bigoted.
As for the program resting on a single coach, you could say that about most any successful program in the country. Heck, Baylor’s program rests on a single player at the moment. I think it might be less true in TCU’s case, however. If Patterson leaves, it will almost certainly be on his own terms, and TCU should have little trouble finding applicants for the job. Who wouldn’t want to take over a successful team with shiny new facilities in a state loaded with talent where all you have to do is win the Big East? I like our chances in a post-Patterson world, thank you very much.
Oh, and as for Pitt, standing to gain from a conference move isn’t the same as showing interest. If only schools that officially stated a desire to chance conferences were candidates for expansion, then everyone but A&M, SMU and maybe Missouri would be standing pat. Also, future member != “aspiring to join.” Nice try, though.
To return to my original point: a Big 12 expansion article lists SMU and Houston as candidates while failing to mention TCU, and an SEC expansion article mentions Baylor, and you have to wonder why I object?
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Jake,
“Speaking of Baylor, you really think that AQ label means anything?”
Yes, it does. It means Baylor gets a lot more money from TV contracts, the BCS and the NCAA tourney than a non-AQ like TCU. I didn’t say they deserved it or earned it, but being AQ does mean something. It’s sort of like how an Ivy League diploma means more than a state school one no matter how smart the students are.
‘I don’t know who these “most people” you keep talking about are, but if they think the Bears are a more valuable commodity than the Frogs because they’ve been leeching off of UT for the last 15 years, well, that doesn’t say much about “most people.”’
I didn’t say more valuable, I said more important. Those are two different things. Baylor as an AQ is more valuable than TCU as a non-AQ, but their roles would be reversed if TCU was in the B12 instead of Baylor. It’s nothing intrinsic to the schools themselves, just their place in the hierarchy.
“If Mr. SEC only considered current AQ programs, that’s a mistake.”
Feel free to tell him that, but he wrote it in black and white in his article that you are bitching about.
“As for the program resting on a single coach, you could say that about most any successful program in the country.”
Except for all the power programs that have been elite under multiple coaches, sure. TCU has a losing record over the last 50 years, and the #74 winning percentage. That makes their recent success much more of an anomaly than it is for teams like NE, OSU, PSU, OU, UT, AL, MI, USC, UF, FSU, TN, ND, UGA, AU, Miami, LSU, Ark, BYU, ASU, WV and Clemson (all over 60%).
TCU went from 1956 through 1999 without winning 9 games. They didn’t win 7 games in the 60s or 70s and only once in the 80s. They didn’t win the SWC between 1959 and 1994. I can’t imagine why some people might question how strong the foundation is for TCU football.
“Oh, and as for Pitt, standing to gain from a conference move isn’t the same as showing interest.”
I didn’t say Pitt was interested in the SEC. i don’t think they are. I said they were an AQ FB school stuck in the BE, one of the conferences Mr. SEC decided was raidable. That qualifies them for his list.
‘Also, future member != “aspiring to join.”’
Yes, it does. You aren’t a member yet, and may never be (the BE could implode, or TCU could go elsewhere). TCU still aspires to be an AQ team, but is about to achieve that. Pitt has been one for a long time. They have a different status.
“To return to my original point: a Big 12 expansion article lists SMU and Houston as candidates while failing to mention TCU, and an SEC expansion article mentions Baylor, and you have to wonder why I object?”
I sort of understand why the KC article would bug you, although it really would only make sense to me if TCU was interested in joining the B12. I don’t get upset when OSU isn’t mentioned as a candidate for the B12
Getting upset at the SEC article make zero sense to me. The author said he was only considering AQ schools, presumably because he thinks those are the only schools the SEC would consider (and he’s right about that). I don’t see why the mention of an AQ school from TX in that article would bother a fan of a non-AQ team from TX. It’s not like he gave Baylor any positive spin as he said the SEC would have to be desperate to take them. I’m sure if you really feel the need to be included on the list of desperation schools, he’ll oblige you next time if you ask him nicely.
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http://outkickthecoverage.com/why-espn-has-already-lost-the-future.php
One blogger who thinks ESPN is on the way down thanks to arrogance and modern media.
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http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/resources/latest+news/2011/august/ncaa+statement+on+danny+sheridan+comments
The NCAA comments on Danny Sheridan. His only chance to save his reputation now is to write down his info and seal it in an envelope and give it to his attorney. It could be opened in several years or after the NCAA announces they have proof.
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Do we thing that B1G is not a player for aTm? Why? (the logic behind the what is reported)
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TAMU wants to join the SEC. The SEC wants TAMU. Texas is southern. The SEC is southern. TAMU is closer to the SEC (2 border states). There are 5 SEC schools closer to TAMU than the nearest B10 school (NE). TAMU has rivalries with some SEC schools already. The SEC pays about the same as the B10.
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There is no interest on the A&M side in joining the Big Ten. Culturally it’s not a fit, and distance is a huge issue.
While the money and academic interests are there, it just wouldn’t work out between A&M and the Big Ten.
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There’s 4 basic criteria that have to be established with respect to expansion and fit: money, academics, geography, culture. While there are cases where some aspects can override others, A&M is a perfect fit for the SEC in all of those ways; notsomuch the Big Ten…
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Money – Arguable, call
Academics – Unquestionably B1G
Geographic – Unquestionably SEC
Culture – Arguable
In my time I’ve spent in TAMU recruiting for my company, I think you can argue that TAMU has as much in common with large, public, and technical Midwestern Land Grant colleges as it does with the “Old South” campus of the SEC.
I think you left the two most dominant factors in TAMU going to the SEC:
1. The belief that a conference is first about football and second about everything else.
2. A deep distrust/hatred in UT
The four you listed are all secondary.
MF
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Edit: Meant to say “Money – Arguable, call it even”
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Geography has a ton to do with it, they are just a great fit in the SEC (geography) with already having a rivalry game vs Arkansas and will likely build one quickly with LSU too.. The minor $ advantage (which maybe major when the B10 renegotiates its next tier 1 deal) in the B10 doesn’t trump the other factors..
The Aggie fans I’ve talked to don’t understand the research/academic side to the B10 and the CIC, unlike Texas fans. Putting it as simple as possible, CIC is a collection of all B10 universities and the University of Chicago (former B10 school) who group together to land BILLIONS of dollars worth of federal research grants. e.g. University of Wisconsin & the University of Michigan might join together and work on a project together in attempt to earn federal research money that might’ve gone to another university.
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@ Wolverine. I agree with you completely. I interact with Aggies every day both professionally and personally and have been literally laughed at when I explain to them that a conference is academic as well as athletic. The CIC discussion is greeted with fingers in the ears and a “la, la, la” reply.
The WSJ article from last fall that ranked the top recruited colleges in the nation was very eye opening to me. TAMU was #2 on the list. Probably 80-90% of the Big Ten was on the list as well. Only 1 SEC made the top 25 (UF). My company is one the largest and most well known consumer product corporations in the world. We only recruit from a small list of schools, every one of which is on the WSJ list (including TAMU). We won’t stop recruiting at TAMU just because they join the SEC. But if the academic rankings of TAMU start to drop off because of being associated with SEC, it is a definite possibility. I’m not saying TAMU will automatically drop in AWRU/USNWR rankings just because it goes to a lesser conference, but I guarantee it won’t help their rankings either. But these concerns are so far in the background it’s perplexing. And maybe, in the final analysis, this is EXACTLY why TAMU doesn’t fit in the B1G.
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The Aggie fans I’ve talked to don’t understand the research/academic side to the B10 and the CIC, unlike Texas fans. Putting it as simple as possible, CIC is a collection of all B10 universities and the University of Chicago (former B10 school) who group together to land BILLIONS of dollars worth of federal research grants. e.g. University of Wisconsin & the University of Michigan might join together and work on a project together in attempt to earn federal research money that might’ve gone to another university.
That’s one of the things that makes people in College Park salivate about becoming part of the Big Ten. They see what’s happened in State College, and what will soon happen in Lincoln.
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Graduates of Texas A&M fully understand the CIC and its benefits. We also understand that A&M does quite well attracting federal research grants (and the trend is extremely positive) without the CIC. Its doubtful that will change by affiliating with the SEC.
The geographic fit between A&M and the B1G just doesn’t work. It’s that simple. 1000 mile road trips just are not that appealing.
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I don’t see the Pac 12 accepting Oklahoma & Oklahoma State together. Oklahoma isn’t great enough of a draw to have OSU as a tag along, not even for the Pac 12. Not saying it won’t happen but I don’t see the Pac 12 accepting OSU unless it gets them Texas too.
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Road trips from College Station:
Morgantown, WV: 1312
Blacksburg, VA: 1171
Columbia, SC: 1035
Lexington, KY: 981
Knoxville, TN: 936
Gainesville, FL: 925
Athens, GA: 896
Auburn, AL: 756
Furthest Big 12 trip:
Columbia, MO: 752
I can see how geographic fit has been a guiding principle for A&M’s decisions.
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The above message was suppose to go elsewhere in this discussion…
–
You’d be the exception Frank(ag) in terms of Aggie fans understanding the academic side to the B10 with its CIC. Far and away, most everyone I talk to outside of B10 country (not just Aggie fans) doesn’t understand the magnitude that the CIC has in terms of the B10’s exclusive club of elite research institutions… Like BoilerTex says, explaining the CIC to anyone results in deaf ears…
This is why I’ve been vocal here about the B10 being very unlikely to reach 16 members anytime soon, let alone some peoples hypothetical 20 member B10 conference. There just aren’t many universities that are peers to the B10 academically and/or athletically. Most of those peers are in a very stable ACC (North Carolina, Maryland), in the B10’s footprint (Pitt), takes way too much pride in its independence (Notre Dame), or wants to run its own conference (Texas)…
FWIW I believe A&M is one of those peers, they just fit geographically much better in the SEC and for conference stability better off in the SEC.
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@Boilertex
Their reaction to your CIC comments explains why they are a perfect cultural fit with the SEC.
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There just aren’t many universities that are peers to the B10 academically and/or athletically. Most of those peers are in a very stable ACC (North Carolina, Maryland), in the B10′s footprint (Pitt), takes way too much pride in its independence (Notre Dame), or wants to run its own conference (Texas).
While Maryland would optimally prefer to enter the Big Ten as part of a bloc with Virginia, North Carolina and Duke, it would enter in a #13-14 combo with some other institution and leave its ACC rivals behind. People in College Park realize the value of the Big Ten, not just for football and athletics, but as an all-around force. It would be the last piece in the puzzle for the university reaching a level similar to its land-grant peers.
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@M
Thank you M for those distances. I completely agree that geography is the least of any school’s concern right now and as conferences continue to expand their footprint, it will become even less so. The number of flights the TAMU Olympic sports will have to make to play the eastern half of the SEC are going to be very similar to anything they would have encountered in the B1G.
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Missouri is the farthest Big 12 school from A&M only if the Longhorns removed Iowa State from the conference. I admit that’s conceivable, but I think I would have seen the press.
Every school in the SEC West except Auburn is closer than Kansas, KSU, Missouri, and Iowa State, who are currently permanent opponents.
BTW, I wouldn’t have objected to a move to the Big Ten. My first preference was to move there with the Longhorns. After that, I don’t see any real advantage academically to being in the Pac 12 or Big 12 over the SEC.
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Like many other college football fans, I had forgotten the existence of Iowa State. College Station to Ames, Iowa is 904 miles, closer than the two Alabama schools.
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I know this was not the deal breaker, or deal maker, but the non football sports mesh
TAMU baseball = SEC baseball
TAMU T&F = SEC West T&F
TAMU WBB = SEC WBB
TAMU Equestrian = SEC Equestrian
TAMU gymnastics = SEC Gymnastics
B1G has hockey, and that is not a hot button for TAMU
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Per Mapquest the distance to SEC West teams A&M will most often play:
LSU: 350 miles
Arkansas: 180 miles (games played in DFW)
MSU: 550 miles
Mississippi: 650
Alabama: 650
Auburn: 750
No idea what point you were trying to make “M” other than to hide the facts by cherry picking schools. If you use Houston as your primary departure point (where most Ags will travel from) the distances reduce by 90 miles.
A&M to the B1G? Closest school is NU. Every other school exceeds 1000 miles.
Your interpretation of what Ag’s think about the CIC is just your bias and nothing else. The fact remains A&M does an excellent job attracting federal grant dollars and so the rest of your point is more adhominem attack for an argument of merit.
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FranktheAg,
M gave these trip lengths:
Morgantown, WV: 1312
Blacksburg, VA: 1171
Columbia, SC: 1035
Lexington, KY: 981
Knoxville, TN: 936
Gainesville, FL: 925
Athens, GA: 896
Auburn, AL: 756
You responded with these:
Per Mapquest the distance to SEC West teams A&M will most often play:
LSU: 350 miles
Arkansas: 180 miles (games played in DFW)
MSU: 550 miles
Mississippi: 650
Alabama: 650
Auburn: 750
While I agree with you that TAMU is a better geographic and cultural fit with the SEC (at least the west), I think M’s point was that if geographic fit was so important TAMU would stay in the B12.
It was presumably in response to you saying:
The geographic fit between A&M and the B1G just doesn’t work. It’s that simple. 1000 mile road trips just are not that appealing.
Once you threw out the 1000 mile number, he pointed out how far some of the SEC schools are from TAMU. To further explain his point, let me add these trips (distances from Rand McNally):
Baylor 93 miles
UT 107
OU 357
OkSU 435
TT 456
KU 655
KSU 661
MO 822
ISU 949
To help your point:
NE 804 miles
IL 965
IN 990
IA 1050
PU 1059
NW 1111
OSU 1153
MN 1158
WI 1231
MSU 1279
MI 1298
PSU 1477
The SEC west schools are certainly closer, but the SEC east isn’t much closer than the B10 which was M’s point. The B12 schools are obviously the closest.
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To echo FranktheAg, google claims College Station to Tuscaloosa is 630 miles.
And Duffman, I don’t believe A&M has a scholarship gymnastics team, though maybe they’ll add one in the SEC. Your other sports are good, though.
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m (Ag),
Assuming you’re responding to me, I quoted FranktheAg’s distances. He’s the one that said it was 650.
I only generated the B12 and B10 distances.
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Some buyout discussion. Will be discussed today in B12 meeting.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/08/26/3316917/big-12-to-hold-teleconference.html
Given that its nearly September and the new Fox deal is signed, I find it hard to believe they would give them as good a deal as Nebraska got. I also think it unlikely they do a suit that delays departure of a school who wants to go. But they might sue the SEC, A&M and potentially ESPN for damages if it hurts the TV contracts.
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The Big 12 won’t sue because they’ll get a 10th team (I wouldn’t be suprised if they don’t already have one or two lined up). Whether it is BYU (which I think makes the most sense), or if it is Houston or TCUor even an SMU or Air Force, they’ll get one lined up before the Fox tv deal is put into jeopardy.
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It’s very short notice that they need to come up a new school though and that might well make it more expensive for the new school to come. I think the timing of this should result is higher exit fees for A&M at least.
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This is now a game of chicken. Texas A&M has asked the B12 to explain the exit process. If A&M decides to follow the by-laws and avoid a large exit fee, it could simply choose to give notice that it intends to leave the B12 by 2014. Anyone think the B12 wants to hold steady in this state for another 3 years?
A&M and the B12 will more than likely settle on the same exit fee as those paid by CU and NU as BOTH sides have an incentive to resolve this now (with BYU ready to join) vs. in 3 years.
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I think you are right everyone will want it over. But the Aggies won’t get the same deal in $ terms. The Big 12 has spent $1 million in marketing, the time frame for next year is very short and the revenues are a lot bigger than they were just last summer. For the Aggies 2 years is going to be around $31 million vs. under $20 for UNL. CU did give the 2 year notice. They were allowed out early with the 2 year fee to get things resolved.
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I read one rumour they already have a contingent offer out to ND and BYU. As for suing, it depends on the TV contracts (Big 12 and SEC) and, of course, their evaluation of the liklihood of success. If ESPN were to offer the SEC a lot more money or the Big 12 took a per school cut, I think they would sue. ESPN is in a particularly delicate position. The SEC is walking a fine line as well. I can’t remember a team leaving any conference this late. That they are talking about fall 2012 in late August is really disruptive to everyone (and everyone’s TV contracts) and is a bad reflection on the SEC and the Aggies. Besides, this is supposed to be an off-season discussion!
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BYU left the MWC around this time last year. Of course, they were going independent, so it may have been a simpler process.
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You’re right. It was very late-August 31. Conferences used to have deadlines like June 30. The MWC (looked it up) was August 31.
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The new Fox deal is signed but doesn’t take effect until next year. IMHO is why the Aggies are in such a hurry.
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Jerome Solomon on why again are they doing this?
http://www.chron.com/jeromesolomon/2011/08/again-why-is-am-going-to-the-sec/
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(As a response to that article.)
At this point, they have no choice. Texas is probably going to succeed in putting a Big 12 conference game onto the LHN. I’m just not seeing how the Big 12 will be able to stay competitive with the other conferences if that kind of creep grows given that Texas is the most valuable football property.
For long term stability, A&M has to get to the SEC; at this point, no one knows how long the Big 12 will last.
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Wow, a Texas alum (Solomon) who doesn’t agree with the move. Who would have thought that would be the case? That opinion piece has more whine to it than Napa Valley.
I’m just stunned that A&M is heading off to the SEC since;
1) A&M never had an invite other as an attempt to get OU; and
2) Texas politicians would never allow it.
Since those “facts” propagated across the interwebs (and entangled the Tank) by Texas-Exes everywhere have been proven false, how long will it be before the latest “fact” is proven wishful thinking (the SEC won’t gain any financial increase by adding Texas A&M)? I’ll give it 6 months.
It is also interesting that now that those same sources are discussing ND to the B12, the Tank has abandoned them as rumor-mongers. Given the last two ridiculously incorrect posts about A&M and the SEC, I’m guessing the Tank wishes he’d come to that realization some time ago.
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FranktheAg,
I have tried to get FranktheTank to see a different view, but mine is not borne out of a love or hate of UT or TAMU. I am looking at it as WWBSD (What Would Bob Sugar Do – yeah jerry mcguire was on the other day, and I keep seeing Bob Sugar as the future of college football. I see much similarity to real life IMG as the fictional SMI (similar to HAL and IBM in 2001 : A Space Oddessy). As I have said earlier, I am not sure this is good long term for college football, but money drives the bulldozer, not the fans.
My focus is still WWJDD.
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What Would JD on ‘Scrubs’ do? No wonder we have such a mess!
It gets entertaining for a while reading the Aggies’ comments hyperventilating over Solomon’s column. I think it was 3 pages of attacks before some guy named something like Joe6pack made a rational response. It was just like reading Auburn fan’s comments last year about anything related to Cam Newton. But after a while, it just gets old.
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SIAP…census data on population growth. If you look at the % growth by state the atlantic coast and texas are huge. Delaney knew what he was talking about. VA, VT, MD, UNC, Duke, GT and Miami look even better now,
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/defining.america/map/index.html?hpt=hp_abar
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Finally decided to satisfy my own curiousity on BYU & Sunday play and how that might impact things. Big 12 championships this year that involve Sunday play:
Women’s soccer W,F,Su
Men’s & Women’s tennis TH-Su
Men’s & Women’s golf F-Su
Men’s & Women’s track F-Su
Baseball W-Su
All the others end or take place on a Saturday. I can’t think of any regular season events that would normally be on Sunday. Of the championships, soccer, tennis and golf would require more lost class time, but that would be only one day. Track is after most schools are out-May 11-13. Baseball is also after. Attendance would be hurt at track and baseball.
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BYU currently has a spot for all of its other sports (minus football) in the WCC. I think it is plausible that BYU could join the Big 12 in football only, and leave the other sports in the WCC. That may end up working out better for both parties anyways.
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I believe that there is an NCAA rule that says if you play football in a conference, all your other sports must participate in that conference if that conference sponsors it.
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Somebody better tell the NCAA about Notre Dame then.
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Or Temple for that matter, seeing how they play football in the MAC and other sports in the A10 conference.
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Notre Dame Football is independant and the A10 at one time played FCS football. That’s how they got their exception.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_Owls
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No such rule.
Hawaii will be in the Mountain West for football-only in 2012 and 2012 (2-year contract), and will park basketball, baseball, volleyball, etc. in the Big West.
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There is a rule. It states that a team can’t play a sport in one conference if it’s a member of another conference that sponsors that sport. Notre Dame can be a member of the Big East and play football as an independent, but could not play football in the Big Ten. Hawaii can play in the Mountain West because the Big West doesn’t offer FBS football (same for Temple with the Atlantic 10).
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Beat me to the punch.
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I believe the rule is you can’t have your football team in one D-IA conference and your non-football sports in another D-IA conference (though you can put a non-football sport in another D-IA conference if your primary conference does not sponsor said sport. Ex. Boise St.’s wrestling team is the PAC-12 since the WAC did not sponsor wrestling).
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The WCC doesn’t play football. So BYU could keep their other teams in the WCC and place football in the Big 12.
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Right. BYU playing just football in the Big 12 would be similar to the Temple (or Va Tech, etc) in the Big East for football and everything else in the A10 scenario.
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Wouldn’t BYU push for a full invite instead? It’s more money and more exposure for them, and it means they aren’t a second-class citizen.
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Chip Brown is saying the Aggies are expected to apply to the SEC next week. Didn’t state who believed that or why.
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Odd that this conference call info first seems to come out from: Sacramento: http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/27/3866233/ap-source-texas-am-could-leave.html
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Interesting stuff on the Twitterverse today. I’m too damn lazy to link them all.
David Sandhop of websider: Admin at A&M told me the university is shooting for presser next Thursday to announce move to SEC if all goes as planned
Aaron Dickens of Red Raider Sports had Texas Tech Chancellor Kent Hance on the Radio. Here’s 3 tweets from Dickens attributed to Hance:
*If A&M bolts, Hance said they’d “be replaced by at least one and maybe three excellent teams that’ll be a bigger story (than A&M leaving).” *
Hance on Tech: “If there are changes, if there are shakeups, I think we’ll still be fine. We’ve earned our position nationally on merit.”
Hance said Tech hopes to become an AAU school within next 10 years. Indicated TTU on track to reach billion $ fundraising goal by 2013.
There was another Twitter last night from a BYU fan saying he had an inside source and employee at BYU which told him BYU would be the 10th member of the Big 12. Notre Dame was offered too.
My take: Hance saying both that the Big12 would add teams and that TECH was was fine if major changes would happen to me is where all of the Big12 is right now. They don’t know where the wind is going to blow them any more than posters here. If we are headed to the Super-conference era with playoffs which would mean the Big12 would break up, OR are we heading to a period of relative conference stability if conferences don’t find expansion profitable enough, meaning the Big12 schools don’t really have any place to go to.
For what it’s worth I have a friend well connected to people that are well connected to the University of Oklahoma, and he seems to think OU is going to end up in the Pa16, it’s just a matter of how it gets done, and with who. He said OU is still trying to take Ok. St. along where ever OU goes. The B1G has shown interest in OU, it’s Ok. St. they seem to be balking at.
The big question/fear seems to me, is will the TV networks pay for the super-conferences in a large enough proportion to make the expansions worth it to the current member schools.
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*If A&M bolts, Hance said they’d “be replaced by at least one and maybe three excellent teams that’ll be a bigger story (than A&M leaving).” *
Hmmmmm……..Not exactly sure what he is trying to say here. He is either A) implying that there is a bigger school with more merit than aTm joining the Texas 10 or B) he is just tring to put a positive spin on the conference losing its 3rd member in 2 years. I’ll go w/ B, but thats just me.
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Saw Tech AD made the same statement as Hance.
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have you noticed that Tech and Baylor have been the most vocal about A&M leaving? Baylor is just scared that they will be exposed as a BCS fraud, but interesting to me that Tech is being so vocal. Almost like “Hey, don’t forget about TECH!”
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That ND-BYU-Ark (or Pitt instead of Ark) rumor is what he’s referring to…
Most likely it’ll just be BYU, but that’s just my guess.
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If it really is BYU + ND +1 that would drawf the SEC story. However, that is a gigantic IF. I just can’t see how the Big 12 could get ND in football and give them enough flexibility with only Pitt among their longtime rivals. The ACC could give them BC, Pitt, Ga Tech and Miami who are among their most frequently played opponents as well as teams in the mid-Atlantic they would want to play. The B1G could give them UM,MSU,PU,NU along with Penn St. Those teams in areas they want to play would allow them room ooc for USC, etc. The Big 12 just doesn’t unless they only play 5 conference games and I don’t see that lasting long term.
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If they pull off that ND/BYU/Pitt expansion, it would easily be the biggest expansion story in a long time.
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“If they pull off that ND/BYU/Pitt expansion, it would easily be the biggest expansion story in a long time.”
At which point monkeys will fly out of any number of my bodily orifices.
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The one thing that this does signal to me, that is – if any public comments are to be believed, is that Oklahoma has decided that it is not bolting anywhere. As long as OU wants to stay, then the UTen survives (w/ duct tape and paper clips).
I don’t believe (until it happens), any rumor of ND to the conference either for all the reasons that have been listed here throughout the last year+. They would almost have to make so many concessions that ND would almost be a psuedo member vs a full participant. At least thats my take. .
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A TTech person saying the B12 will add attractive members doesn’t tell me that OU isn’t going anywhere. It tells me that TTech is desperate.
Now if it was an OU person saying the same thing, then it would be a different story.
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@Redhawk
Can you explain the Oklahoma-Okie State dynamic for us outsiders? I always got the impression Oklahoma was reluctantly tied to OkSU…
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I wrote a full article on that here (well, really with the angle of is OU and OSU a legal package deal…which it’s not) http://www.crimsonandcreammachine.com/2011/8/12/2360002/are-oklahoma-and-oklahoma-state-really-a-package-deal
OU Administration so far to me hasn’t been reluctantly tied, but rather actively trying to protect OkSU from getting left behind. I’ve heard also recently, that OU is scared they could end up in a Conference set up that didn’t include Texas OR OkSU as in-conference games. OU wouldn’t want to have to play both those as OOC games, as that would really tie up scheduling.