Bracket Time

The bubble watch is over and the field for the NCAA Tournament has been set, so here are some of my initial thoughts:

(1) Illinois Homer Analysis – The Illini have been on the edge of the bubble for essentially the entire season, so it wasn’t surprising to see them end up being one of the last 4 at-large invitees to the NCAA Tourney as a #12-seed in the West Region.  However, I feel pretty good about the draw with getting placed in the heart of Big Ten country in Columbus against a solid, but certainly not unbeatable, Virginia Tech team.  In fact, this is the first time I’m going to be able to pencil in my own team for the annual 12-over-5 upset – we haven’t been pretty, yet any Big Ten team as a 12-seed is going to be a bit dangerous (especially considering that our twin brother Purdue drew a 9-seed).  Also, it looks as if though the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has a sense of humor putting Kansas, Illinois, and Southern Illinois in the same bracket considering that Bill Self’s move to Lawrence spurred the Illini to hire Bruce Weber from the Salukis.  (Similar situations are in the bottom half of the West bracket with Ben Howland/UCLA/Pitt and the South with Thad Matta/Ohio State/Xavier)  Anyway, I’ve felt as negative about Illinois on the court as anyone lately, but a Sweet Sixteen isn’t out of the question as a result of the potential matchups in the first two rounds.  Unfortunately, there’s no way that we can get past a team as talented as Kansas, as much as it pains me to say.

(2) Is Georgetown Really That Awesome? – The analysts from across the country seem to be convinced that Georgetown has the easiest road to the regional final round out of anyone.  I can see from where they’re coming from – Vanderbilt is way overrated as a 6-seed, while Washington State, Boston College, and Texas Tech all have heavy flaws.  That being said, I always feel some bad chi with any team that everyone believes is a lock to advance, particularly since the Hoyas in particular have lost to Ol’ Dirty, er, Old Dominion University (a 12-seed this year) and NIT-bound Syracuse.  Maybe Washington State comes out from the bottom half of East bracket?  You never know.

(3) UNC Kind of Got Screwed – North Carolina’s “reward” for grabbing a #1 seed was to get placed in a bracket with Texas as a 4-seed.  It’s been said everywhere a million times but I’ll need to say it again: Kevin Durant is a monster and there’s no way I’d want to face the Longhorns in the tournament.  With the way that Texas has hung in with Kansas, possibly the most loaded team in the country, over the past couple of weeks, a Carmelo Anthony-in-2003-type run for Durant isn’t out of the question.

(4) Ohio State is in Good Shape – The Buckeyes have been clicking straight through to Big Ten regular season and tournament championships, so they got a good draw in the South region.  Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr. have a great inside-outside combo while the entire team plays fantastic defense.  As long as they don’t end up playing Texas A&M in the regional final (which is being held in Aggie-friendly San Antonio), Ohio State is the team that I’m most confident in making it to the Final Four.

(5) Praising Arizona???!!! – If you recall (which I hope you don’t), I picked Arizona to win it all back in November.  That led the Wildcats to essentially mail it in for the majority of the Pac-10 season to put them at the 8-seed position to set them up with a potential second round date with defending champ and #1 overall seed Florida.  What are the chances of Arizona knocking off Florida to turn me into the sage of the century?  Pretty slim, but I will say that Arizona might be the most talented 8-seed that I can ever remember (which is another way of saying that they were massive underachievers this year).

(6) BCS Championship Rematch?  Odds Say No, So the Final Four Will Be… – Notwithstanding my misplaced thinking on Arizona above, the obvious pick would be an Ohio State-Florida final, which would create the unprecedented scenario of having the same two schools in the championship games for both football and basketball.  However, the odds over the years show that two 1-seeds meeting in the final doesn’t happen very often.  So, my 2007 NCAA Tournament prediction is a Final Four of Oregon, Kansas, Texas, and Ohio State (maybe I’m wishing too much for a Durant vs. Oden matchup), with Ohio State beating Kansas for the national championship.

Regardless of what happens, I’m pumped up for the best sporting event of the year.  Enjoy filling out your brackets!

The Big Bubble in the Big Ten

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Illinois managed to muck up another critical road game at Iowa on Saturday, which means that the Illini blew an opportunity to solidify its NCAA Tournament profile and put themselves on the tenuous bubble that’s occupied by Big Ten counterparts Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, and the aforementioned Hawkeyes.  Michigan State really ought to be in the NCAA Tourney with its wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin, but they also only managed one Big Ten road win this year, so they aren’t necessarily completely secure.  One win in the Big Ten Tournament at the United Center this week (an event which, in a conference move that I heavily criticized last year, will be moved to Indianapolis until at least 2012) ought to remove any doubts on the Spartans.  On the other end, Michigan and Iowa are going to probably need to at least get to the Big Ten championship game to be able to get an invite to the dance, if not outright win the conference’s automatic bid.

That leaves Illinois and Purdue who have virtually identical NCAA profiles in terms of RPI and schedule strength along with matching Big Ten conference records.   As of today, it’s tough not to put the Boilermakers slightly ahead in a head-to-head with the way that they slashed the Illini in West Lafayette back in January.  At same time, the Illinois meltdown at Iowa on Saturday forces the Illini to have to play a Thursday first round game against Penn State in the Big Ten Tourney as opposed to taking advantage of a bye that’s now going to Purdue.  The upshot here is that even if Illinois beats Penn State, they’re also going to have to get past Indiana on Friday for a second win to really get into decent position on Selection Sunday.  Purdue, on the other hand, only needs one win versus Iowa on Friday in order to feel pretty good in terms of an NCAA bid.

Honestly, with everything that has happened to the Illinois program this season, we’re lucky to be even in a position to make the NCAA Tournament right now.  What’s keeping us alive right now is more of what we have avoided (any bad losses to sub-50 RPI teams), than what we have achieved (the best wins this year have been against Indiana and Michigan State, which aren’t exactly marquee victories).  Still, it was incredibly frustrating to watch the Illini just not execute in such a critical game on Saturday.  Instead of giving Illini Nation a breather this week by taking care of business against the Hawkeyes, the Illinois basketball team has put us on edge once again.

(Image from FightingIllini.com)

Land-o-Links for 2/23/2007

As we head into the weekend, here is a mix of random news and sports links:

(1) PTAs Go Way Beyond Cookies (New York Times) – It was only a matter of time before Gordon Gecko started taking over PTA meetings.

(2) But Do They Cover This in Those Big Green Books? (Wall Street Journal Law Blog) – We crazy lawyers have outdone ourselves this time.  It’s not unusual to see a class action lawsuit filed.  However, it’s very unusual to see a class action lawsuit filed on behalf a group of… lawyers.  For what it’s worth, I’ll gladly take a $125 settlement from Bar/Bri (a monopolistic racket that puts Microsoft and Major League Baseball to shame), so the lead plaintiffs here need to simmer down.

(3) It Really is Time We Had a Trade or Two (True Hoop) – I think we’ve gotten to the point where the NBA trade deadline might very well be the most anti-climactic day in sports.  Every year, hoops fans banter on for months about viable swaps involving superstars yet no one ever pulls the trigger.  This season saw Jason Kidd and Pau Gasol added on to the rumor mill with perennial trade bait Kevin Garnett, which all ended up being a ton of hot air.  I mean, Isiah Thomas didn’t even get to give away another draft pick this year.

Note to Timberwolves GM Kevin McHale: for the love of God, trade KG to the Bulls already.  You’re on the outside looking in for the Western playoff race once again with the same old lineup.  You could’ve nabbed two of the Bulls’ top three players – Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, and/or Ben Gordon – plus a potential boon of a draft pick this summer in a trade that would’ve aided both teams by giving the T-Wolves a strong base of young players that are already playoff-tested and putting the Bulls in position to fully take advantage of what will surely turn out to be the last couple of productive seasons for Ben Wallace immediately, yet you continue to be maddeningly stubborn.  This is another missed opportunity for everyone involved.

(4) Smith on Bench a Bad Idea (Mark Tupper Weblog) – For all of the national attention on the last dance for Chief Illiniwek on Wednesday (which I didn’t get to see live since I’m not one of the five people in the country that gets ESPNU), the larger concurrent issue for the Illinois basketball program is the awful cloud surrounding Jamar Smith’s criminal charges and the appearance of him being more worried about saving his own hide as opposed to Brian Carlwell’s life.  As much as I loved Jamar’s shooting touch, there’s no place in the Illini program for someone that completely disregarded his moral responsibilities to his teammate, much less the legal aspect of it all.  I’m sure that Bruce Weber and Ron Guenther will eventually make the right call here.

And finally…

(5) Foxy Brown Arrested in South Florida Over Hair Glue, Spitting Incident (AllHipHop.com) – I’m sure that everyone has gone ballistic in a beauty shop at one time.  But twice???

Save the Last Chief Dance For the Memories

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After two decades of debates and protests, the Chief Illiniwek issue was finally laid to rest by the University of Illinois Board of Trustees by announcing that the mascot/symbol will appear for the last time on Wednesday.  The Chief debate has always brought up a lot of mixed emotions for me.  As an Illinois student, I was a pretty strong Chief proponent that believed that it was as unique and special as any tradition in all of college sports.  Indeed, to this day, there are few moments that move me more than when the Chief raises his arms in the middle of the “Three-in-One” and the entire stadium sings “Hail to the Orange” in unison.  At the same time, I thought a number of special interest groups and politicians (Illinois State Senate President Emil Jones in particular) outside of the University of Illinois community used the Chief as a hot-button issue to propel themselves into the spotlight when it really had nothing to do with them.

However, in the wake of being removed from college for a few years, the Chief issue simply wore me down to where it just didn’t matter to me anymore.  All I wanted was for the story to go away so that it wouldn’t be rekindled every single fall when students came back to campus.  I also couldn’t stand the small yet extremely vocal group of Illinois alums that threatened at every turn to stop supporting the university both financially and emotionally if the Chief were to ever be removed.  There’s a whole lot more to being an Illini than the existence of the Chief, so I found these threats to be a sad indicator of the shallowness of a number of fellow alums.

When the NCAA announced last year that it would bar Illinois from hosting any national tournaments on campus as long as it allowed Chief Illiniwek to dance at halftime, it was only a matter of time before the announcement to end the tradition would come.  While a number of Illini fans argued that the Chief could be kept since the NCAA ban wouldn’t affect the revenue sports of football and men’s basketball, the athletic department as a whole in its good conscience couldn’t effectively put an albatross on all of its other sports for the sake of a mascot/symbol.  The ability to remove the NCAA ban was reason enough alone for the U of I Board of Trustees to get rid of the Chief.

Regardless of whether the impetus for ultimate decision to remove the Chief was to bow to politically correct interest groups or a self-interested action to be in alignment with NCAA policy, the timing was right.  There will certainly be a lot of heavy hearts in the Assembly Hall in Champaign on Wednesday evening when the Chief appears for the final time.  In the end, however, the fight to keep Chief Illiniwek simply wasn’t worth the cost to the rest of the University of Illinois.

(Image from Washington Post)

Land-o-Links – 2/12/2007

As I sit here sulking over not winning my Grammy moment with Justin Timberlake last night, here are some links:

(1) Close Call Would Have Helped on Selection Sunday (Mark Tupper Weblog) – Putting aside my disdain for Satan’s Spawn, Illinois missed a golden opportunity to virtually lock up an NCAA Tournament bid by faltering in the final minute on the road against Indiana on Saturday. As Mark Tupper alludes to in the link, Illini fans are now going to be extremely nervous heading into Selection Sunday. I still believe that a 9-7 record in the Big Ten ought to be enough for a bid (which would require us to win 3 out of the last 4, but we’d better also win at least 1 game in the Big Ten Tournament on top of that to be sure.

(2) Bubble Watch (ESPN.com) – Speaking of the NCAA Tournament and Selection Sunday, ESPN is back with its overview of the bubble teams. What’s amazing is that UConn and LSU, who were simply dominant last year, are almost certainly not going to be invited to the dance unless they win their conference tournaments while Michigan State is pretty close to being in the same position.

(3) A New Chandler in Chicago (Zoner Sports) – In one more note on college basketball before getting onto other subjects, it should be reiterated that Wilson Chandler of DePaul simply rules. That being said, DePaul has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. With victories against Kansas, UConn, and, most recently, Notre Dame, the Blue Demons should have been a lock for the NCAA Tournament along with being at least a middle seed in the Big East Tournament. However, with 3 horrible losses to sub-100 teams in the RPI (including a dreary 49-39 early season loss to Northwestern that had George Mikan rolling in his grave), DePaul isn’t even considered to be a bubble team anymore and still could miss the conference tournament at Madison Square Garden for the second time in as many seasons as a Big East member. The remaining regular season schedule ought to play in DePaul’s favor (besides a home game versus Marquette and a return road game at Notre Dame, the Demons have 2 games against bottom-feeder USF plus a putrid Cincinnati team at home), but their game-to-game inconsistencies have made the Illini look stable in comparison.

(4) Obama Questions Rivals on Iraq (Washington Post) – The most prominent political story in Chicago and the nation from this past weekend was the inevitable announcement by Senator Barack Obama that he will be running for President. As I’ve said before, I never thought that his relative lack of experience in the Senate would matter much on the campaign trail (otherwise, the history books would be peppered with stories about Presidents Dole and Kerry).

However, the main disadavantage that Obama has against Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and, if he survives that, Rudy Giuliani or John McCain in the general election, is that the Presidential campaign will be the first time that the Senator from Illinois will ever experience the invasive and daily media scrutiny that comes with being on the national stage. While Obama has received almost universal fawning from the national media since his keynote address at the 2004 Democratic Convention, the negative press is going to eventually come and we have no idea how he’s going to react to it. As John Kass pointed out in yesterday’s Chicago Tribune, the national and international media has been ignorant with regard to (or at least ignoring) the Tony Rezko scandal so far – I’d be willing to bet on a lot more damaging stories surfacing as we go along. (I’m not saying Obama is by any means a nefarious person, but bad stories are simply going to come up no matter what.)

Meanwhile, is there anything that can be thrown at Hillary that could be any worse than the Whitewater and Monica Lewinsky scandals while her husband was in the White House? By the same token, what hasn’t Rudy Giuliani heard while having to deal with the rabid New York press on a daily basis for 8 years? If Barack Obama is going to win the Presidency, the key for him will be how he deals with his lack of experience of dealing with the negative, if not personally invasive, media stories that will eventually come to fruition as opposed to only having two years on the national stage in the Senate.

(5) Las Vegas Has Got the Game, but It Wants a Team (New York Times) – If you thought a Super Bowl in Miami was insane, just watch out when the highest-paid athletes in all of sports all get together this weekend in Las Vegas for the NBA All-Star Game. It takes a town with 124,000 hotel rooms to be able to hold that many entourages and posses. Honestly, I’d skip the game just to watch Michael Jordan and Charles Barkley take on the house in blackjack.

On another note, it’s simply criminal that none of the professional sports leagues have set up shop in Las Vegas yet. I can understand the NFL’s reservations since pro football is by far the most wagered on sport (followed by college football and a smattering of college basketball games), but the amount of dollars placed on Major League Baseball,NBA, and NHL games are minimal. As alluded to in the linked article, the best compromise would be for the casinos to take any games played by the Las Vegas franchises off of the board, which would eliminate the largest preceived (if not misguided) fear of illicit activity by the mere presence of teams in the city. With a town that is at the center of one of the nation’s fastest growing metropolitan areas, a magnet for tourists from across the world, and more than flush with potential customers with a ton of cash, it’s only a matter of time before one of the leagues makes the plunge.

And finally…

(6) Bow Wow Launches New Label, Crew (AllHipHop.com) – Anyone can launch a new record label. Launching a new crew, on the other hand…

The Upside Down World of Illini Recruiting

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Ron Zook has done it again and then some. After scoring a solid recruiting class for Illinois football last year, the coach with the guns that can’t be carried across state lines has made national headlines (from ESPN to the New York Times) by securing a legitimately stellar group on National Signing Day yesterday. Rivals.com has ranked the 2007 Illini recruiting class #18 in the nation, Scout.com has us at #22, and ESPN.com put us as high as #12. This has occurred despite the program’s pitiful 2-30 record in Big Ten games over the past four seasons. While the ability for top players to start right away in the Big Ten as freshmen is certainly an enticing carrot that Zook can dangle that many of the traditional powers can’t provide, this alone isn’t a sufficient explanation since there are plenty of other BCS schools with poor records that could provide those same opportunities yet they haven’t had the same recruiting success.

So, there’s been grumbling in the college football world about whether Zook is running a clean program, including a questionable remark from former Michigan State head coach John L. Smith in the above-linked New York Times article (please note that Illinois’ lone Big Ten victory last season came against Smith’s Spartans in East Lansing, which pretty much sealed his demise) and a Chicago Tribune article from today intimating that Notre Dame is behind the negative press as a result of losing a number of head-to-head battles for recruits with the Illini this year. While Zook himself has stated that he’s taken advantage of the lack of NCAA limits on text messaging recruits, there have never been any type of sanctions against him in the past (as opposed to, say, Satan’s Spawn).

What’s fascinating, if not frustrating, as an Illini fan at this point is that we now have a football program that has been a bottom-feeder for several years and a coach who doesn’t have a great reputation for play calling yet is able to attract top recruiting classes and a basketball program that was a Luther Head three-pointer away from a national championship two years ago with a coach that’s considered to be one of the top minds in the game but is losing top in-state recruits left and right. Ron Zook seems to be a case-study in the power of personality judging by his recruits continually stating that they chose Illinois because he’s a great guy with a young man’s intensity and could see him being a friend for life. Meanwhile, Bruce Weber appears to be stuck in a recruiting rut. The Eric Gordon situation was particularly painful, but that was an issue where the player’s lifelong “dream school” close to home ended up getting a new coach just prior to the end of the recruiting process. More disturbing to me is how the Illini have lost every single recruiting battle for the top players out of the Chicago-area since Weber became coach, particularly to former Illinois and current Kansas coach Bill Self. If we can’t protect our home state the way Self, Lon Kruger, and Lou Henson had done in the past, Illinois is going to lose all of the momentum that it has built over the past decade in basketball if it hasn’t already.

It could very well be argued that Ron Zook is the Bill Self of college football: an intense personality that is able relate to young players so exceedingly well that he essentially becomes a pied piper for the program, yet the jury is still out as to how he can translate that talent into success on the field. Of course, while recruits only matter if they’re able to produce results, I also believe that any coach would tell you that great players contribute a whole lot more in winning games than coaching strategy. It’s the ultimate paradox that the stronger Illinois basketball program has been struggling with attracting top talent while the weaker Illinois football program is nabbing national attention for its recruiting success. I’d love to see Illinois get to the point where it’s consistently a national power in both sports on par with Florida, Texas, and Ohio State (and I honestly don’t think that’s an exceedingly crazy notion), but the two Illini programs still have a lot of work to do in totally different areas.

(Image from Deadspin)

Land-o-Links – 2/7/2007

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As I thaw off here in Chicago, here are some links:

(1) Where Does Disaster XLI Rank? (Chicago Tribune) – Steve Rosenbloom’s ranking of Chicago’s worst sports disasters. As I noted in the aftermath of this year’s Super Bowl, the only time that I ever felt worse after a sports event than the Bears’ performance on Sunday was the Illini basketball teams’ loss in the 2005 National Championship Game. I can understand Rosenbloom’s ranking of the 2003 NLCS above Super Bowl XLI from a broader Chicago sports fan perspective (even though I personally didn’t feel much distraught from that event as a diehard White Sox fan), but I’m not sure how anything could have been more disasterous than the Black Sox scandal during the 1919 World Series.

(2) Bears Offseason Preview I: The Quarterback (Da’ Bears Blog) – Believe me, I have a love-hate relationship with Rex Grossman as much as anyone. However, are we really at the point where David Carr is the answer? Yikes!

(3) Illinois Has Rivals Fuming About Its Recruiting Coup (New York Times) – Ron Zook is drawing attention across the nation with a top flight recruiting class coming to Champaign next season. Of course, a lot of it stems from what he could possibly be promising such highly-rated recruits. I’ll have many more thoughts on the Illini recruiting situations for football and basketball very soon.

(4) Tempo-Free Aerial: Point Per Possession vs. Opponent PPP (Big Ten Wonk) – A quick chart showing the relative strengths of Big Ten basketball teams during conference play so far.

(5) We Hear That’s Why MJ Did It, Too (Chicagoist) – John Paxson put down a David Stern-esque hammer on Tyrus Thomas for the rookie’s comments on only particpating in the Slam Dunk Contest for the money.

(6) Mars Scraps Snickers Ad After Complaints (Washington Post) – I like to fancy my site as an equal opportunity blog. That being said, am I supposed to feel bad that I thought that this ad was actually one of the few entertaining spots from Sunday?

(7) Sweet Home Sports – A new Chicago sports blog that features the talented authors of the Chi-Sox Blog and Fleece the Pig, Flog the Pony.

And finally…

(8) In the Eye of the Beholder (Wall Street Journal) – What happens when a survey of the American public reveals that the Bellagio is one of the top 25 favorite buildings and structures in the country? Architects go apeshit, of course.

(UPDATE: I couldn’t leave this article from the Chicago Sun-Times on the University of Illinois “Girls of Engineering” calendar off of the links today. Since I was a business major – meaning that I was able to partake in binge drinking with little consequence at Illinois while still under the guise of a “practical” academic program – I’ll just let my readers that attended or are attending the College of Engineering comment on this.)

(Image from Chicago Tribune)

Land-o-Links – 1/29/2007

One week until the Bears dominate the Colts and Peyton Manning’s missing link forehead in the Super Bowl. To tide you over, here are some links:

(1) Levi’s Turns to Suing Its Rivals (New York Times) – For all of you people out there that like to knit and sew, expect a subpoena from Levi’s very shortly.

(2) Illiniwek: Symbol or Mascot? (Chicago Tribune) – You say mascot, I say symbol… let’s call the whole thing off.

(3) Monster Fine for ‘Monster Garage’ (Los Angeles Times) – It looks like Jesse James and the West Coast Choppers crew are churning out smog machines.

(4) NFL’s New Game: Travel Packages (Wall Street Journal) – I was seriously thinking about dropping the cash to head down to the Super Bowl because who knows when the Bears will be back again. Then, I figured out that I could buy plasma screen TVs for every room in my house (as in bedrooms, bathrooms, and crawl spaces) for about the price of one hospitality package. So, I’ll be watching from the comforts of friend’s house instead.

(5) Kind of Looks Like Steve McMichael on a Bender (Deadspin) – The Lyric of Opera of Chicago: They Were Who We Thought They Were.

(6) Ask Chicagoist: “L” or El? (Chicagoist) – Proof positive that the CTA has no idea what it’s talking about.

And finally…

With Peyton Manning’s ubiquitous presence on television commercials throughout the year, let’s not forget this performance from when he was a young boy:

Illini Rough Up Satan’s Spawn

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I’ve been looking forward to Indiana’s visit to the real Assembly Hall for months so that Hoosier coach Satan’s Spawn could receive a few choice words from the Orange Krush. Illinois rose to the occassion by winning a bruising game last night marked by aggressive defense by both teams on the floor. (By the way, have you noticed the Super Bowl symmetry over the last couple of days with a Bulls – Pacers game on Monday followed up by last night’s Illinois – Indiana game? OK, maybe it was just me.) However, for all of the attention paid to the Bruce Weber – Eric Gordon – Satan’s Spawn triangle last night, the more important matter is that the Illini have salvaged some hope to get back into the NCAA Tournament, although we’re still in some dangerous NIT territory.

Not surprisingly, the Big Ten this year has turned into Wisconsin, Ohio State, and then everybody else. There’s a good chance that the Illini won’t be facing another ranked team for the rest of the way (save for possibly the corresponding road game at Indiana on February 10th), so getting a win against the Hoosiers was critical to our NCAA Tournament resume. Even then, an above .500 record in conference play is going to be the bare minimum this season, which means that we need to go 6-3 the rest of the way (Illinois is currently 15-7 overall and 3-4 Big Ten). My gut is telling me that the away game at Purdue this Saturday is dangerous, particularly since it follows such an emotional contest, while future second games against Indiana, Michigan, and Michigan State are all going to be tough matchups regardless of whether Brian Randle and company are healthy. That means the Illini are going to have little margin for error the rest of the way if there’s going to be a reasonable chance to get back to the big dance.

For now, though, Illini Nation can revel in the fact that we were able to vanquish Satan’s Spawn last night. Repeating this again in Bloomington in a couple of weeks would be even sweeter.

(Image from Indianapolis Star)

Frank the Tank’s 2006 NFL Conference Championships Picks

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I’m sure that you were wondering if I had suffered a heart attack from the Bears’ eventual win in overtime last week since there hasn’t been a post all week. It’s been a little nutty around here, but I have a few moments to put down my picks for the weekend, with the home teams in CAPS (my bonus upset special is Illinois defending the honor of its home court against #2 Wisconsin tomorrow – as long as we avoid making Warren Carter three-pointers the centerpiece of our offense, I feel inexplicably good about the Illini right now):

(1) AFC Championship: New England Patriots (+3) over INDIANPOLIS COLTS – In a twist, the much-maligned Indy defense has looked great over the past couple of weeks while Peyton Manning has been rattled. This gives hope to all of those Colts fans that have suffered through some ugly defensive playoff performances in the past, right? However, we’ve been down the Indy vs. New England playoff path before with the conclusion the Colts are simply cursed against the Pats in the postseason. This means that being actually being able to take 3 points with New England is more than gravy – Tom Brady is pulling off the straight “upset” again.

(2) NFC Championship: CHICAGO BEARS (-2.5) over New Orleans Saints – I was nervous enough in anticipation of the Bears’ game against the Seahawks last week, so the fact that my team is now playing for a spot in the Super Bowl for the first time in 18 years is going to wreck my sleeping habits for the next couple of days. The national media has been obsessed with the Saints all week since they have superstars at the offensive skill positions along with the “comeback from Hurricane Katrina” factor, but the fact remains that they only won by 3 points to an inferior team at home last week just like the Bears.

Am I horrified that the Saints’ speed on offense could tear up a suddenly ordinary Bears defense in the same manner as Steve Smith last year? Absolutely. However, as I’ve said before, there isn’t a better motivational tool in sports than the feeling that you’re being disrespected, and the Bears are definitely feeling it this week on both offense (i.e. Rex Grossman can’t hang with Drew Brees and the Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson tandem isn’t in the same constellation as Deuce McAllister plus Reggie Bush) and defense (i.e. the absence of Tommie Harris means the Saints will run the ball with impunity and the New Orleans speed at wide receiver will cut up an average secondary). If the Saints are as unstoppable as people are making them out to be, then they should have destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome last week, which definitely didn’t happen.

Despite popular opinion, “Bear” weather isn’t going to be a factor on Sunday (in the 1988 NFC Championship Game, the surfer crowd from San Francisco came into Soldier Field and blew out the Bears with sub-zero wind chills) and, in the end, this is about as evenly matched of a game as you can get. Yet, I do believe that the Bears have a more balanced attack on both sides of the ball and when it comes down to it, I still trust the Chicago defense to make the key stops that are integral to winning in the postseason than the New Orleans defensive unit. So, we could be looking at a Bears vs. Patriots Super Bowl – doesn’t that sound familiar?

Go Bears, Go Illini, and have a great weekend!

(Image from Deadspin)