I’m bringing back my weekly parlay picks this year, where I pick 3 college football games and 3 NFL games each week against spread (always making a pick on the Illinois and Bears games, if applicable). Basically, it’s an ongoing experiment/validation that it’s a good thing that I don’t live within driving distance of Vegas and how no one should EVER play a parlay in real life. Here are my picks for the college games this week with hazy illogical reasoning (home teams in CAPS with odds from Bodog.com via Yahoo!):
(1) Illinois (+12) over Missouri (neutral site in St. Louis) – This is just a feeling based on the line itself (because frankly, there’s no good concrete evidence to support putting money on the Illini). It simply seems like too large of a spread for a neutral site rivalry game when the favorite just “permanently suspended” a star player. Besides, I have to get the homer pick out of my system early since Illinois probably won’t cover for the rest of the season.
(2) Purdue (+11) over NOTRE DAME – My initial impression is that Purdue is going to perform a bit better than expected this season and the weird overconfidence vibe that I’m getting from South Bend (that Brian Kelly is somehow miles different than the previous 3 Notre Dame head coaches) could turn this into a trap game for the Irish.
(3) Virginia Tech (+1.5) over Boise State (neutral site in Landover) – I know, I’m going to be called a non-believer in Boise State. However, Virginia Tech is not some Pac-10 team with a gimmicky offense or an overconfident power school heading into a bowl game. These 2 schools are neck-and-neck in the rankings, yet the Hokies have been placed as underdogs despite being the virtual home team. I’ll gladly eat my words (and adjust my BlogPoll rankings) if Boise State proves me wrong, but as of now, I love taking the points here.
Feel free to use this post as an open thread for the weekend’s games. If you want to talk about conference realignment or the Big Ten divisional setup, please continue the discussion on the Big Ten Division-palooza post. Have a great Labor Day and enjoy the actual football action!
(NOTE: There’s no real reason for the posted picture, other than it needs to be exposed for the world to see and will be my laptop wallpaper for the next 15 years. Yes, I’m about as street as the Kenny G look-alike from Color Me Badd. Why do you ask?)
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120 thoughts on “Frank the Tank’s Football Parlay and Open Thread – 9/3/2010”
My LSU Tigers are riding an 18 game winning streak against ACC opponents, with their last loss in 1955 against Maryland. I can’t believe the LSU/UNC game is still on most boards with UNC leaving 15 players at home. LSU is only giving 7.5 to 9 points.
Take the Tigers and have a great day!
@Alan from Baton Rouge – Yes, I love that game, too. It’s surprising that line hasn’t got up to at least 14. Plus, the SEC teams have been hammering the ACC teams in the kickoff game.
While I took LSU and laid the 7 and I’m STILL PISSED AT THE REFEREE’s call on the onside kick, Frank, your other picks were insightful, but tough and are better at being a “no bet” in the future unless someone’s holding a gun to your head…..
I would have also taken the Illini and the 12, and that one played out okay for you. Purdue, I took, but hated it after I took it. I think the Boiler’s are a little over rated and I feared that Kelly would be making a statement, know he needed the W before Michigan comes in next week.
Boy’s State beating Va Tech, in my opinion, means nothing when it comes to the BCS due to the fact it’s the first game of the season, everyone’s healthy, and there aren’t any stakes involved. Line them up when they’re both sitting at 10-0 on the season and lets see who comes out on top…
MIRuss – While I didn’t bet the game, I was there. Before the onside kick, the LSU touchdown that was called back on a BS holding call prevented what should have been a route, and made the game way too close for comfort.
That being said, LSU has a lot of work to do before the Florida game on October 9 at the Swamp. UNC also has some good depth and a lot of heart.
They can only play schools willing to line up against them, and I don’t see any BCS school scheduling BSU late in the season.
Without a playoff (and I’m against one), I think you have to give any undefeated team a shot at the title, otherwise, you can’t say that the regular season is one long playoff since about half the teams are eliminated before they play a single snap if no non-BCS team has a shot at the title even if they win every one of their games.
The referee’s call was completely correct:
LSU touched the football before UNC recovered. The kicking team is not allowed to interfere with an opposing player trying to catch the ball on the fly, but the ball was obviously not on the fly.
There’s no rule saying that the kicking team can’t hit the receiving team.
I’ll excuse the homer pick and I agree with the other two.
So this is why I don’t gamble.
Rice loses by 45…
Rice students hack the college football database, and ala the movie “sneakers” get the win!
“TV Anchorman: In a surprise announcement, the Republican National Committee has revealed it is bankrupt. A spokesman for the party said they had plenty of money in their accounts last week, but today they just don’t know where the money has gone. But not everybody is going begging. Amnesty International, Greenpeace and the United Negro College Fund announced record earnings this week, due mostly to large, anonymous donations.” 😉
too many secrets.
not bad performance by rice! did much better than the 45 spread, good luck next weekend against the mean joe greens.
Vastly better than I imagined. We could actually run the ball and play some defense. I may up my estimate for the year to 6-6.
I don’t think the spread will be that big. I’m thinking 34-6.
Nice spread there, almost exactly on the final outcome (35 seconds left) as I post.
Arizona playing tonight with sole ESPN coverage.
good move or bad?
If it is good move, should the BTN network slot a game here as right now the BTN is showing archive stuff and I can see a LIVE Pac 10 team.
I don’t think it’s a rule but the Big Ten likes to stay away from traditional Friday night high school games.
Looks like a duck is a rebel after all
Fri Sep 03 2010 23:03:36 GMT-0400 (EDT)
A few lines I’m liking more and more closing in on Saturday:
1) Wash St +17 @ OK St
– it seems like EVERYONE loves the Cowboys in this one. You know what that means…
– OK St has a massive rebuilding project everywhere, while the Cougs return a LOT of experience. That helps in week 1.
2) TCU -13 vs Or St
– the Beavers are getting a lot of attention as an upset possibility. When you’re a popular upset pick and Vegas keeps you as nearly a 2TD line, chances are Vegas is right.
– Mike Riley’s track record bringing in new QB’s is AWFUL. If TCU keys on the run, they should largely be able to stop it unless Katz can beat them (which seems highly dubious IMO).
3) Oregon -35 vs UNM
-the Ducks to a good job of rolling it up and blowing out far inferior opposition (2-0 ATS as 14+ pt fav in 2009, 2-2 in 2008, 4-0 in 2007, 1-1 in 2006, 1-0 in 2005)
-UNM should be far inferior opposition; they were abysmal in 2009, and lose enough contributors for me to be skeptical they’re going to have a good turnaround this year
-Oregon has 2 QB’s they’re going to want to get experience, which means that even w/ the 2nd string, they’re going to be looking to open up the offense
4) Colo St + 11.5 vs Colo
– mainly a gut / trend pick here. The Buffs VERY rarely win this convincingly (2008 being the exception), and it’s not like they’re likely to be fantastic in 2010. They’re the better team, but I’m skeptical they’re double-digits better.
I also originally liked Wash +3 @ BYU, but now that they seem to be the nation’s most popular upset pick, I’m a good deal more skeptical. When I rate the game, Wash +2 (the line has since moved) looks like it has some value, but the seemingly overwhelming public sentiment on that side practically screams “STAY AWAY” to me.
Some questions for people in Big Ten land paying attention:
1) NW started something like a 6 point fav @ Vandy, now down to 3.5. Anyone have an idea why it’s nearing tossup status?
2) UConn @ Mich -3 looks like a total stayaway game for me, since I could easily see either side covering by double-digits. Anyone want to hazard a guess on that one?
I’m not in Big Ten land, but …
1) Vegas probably changed the line to encourage more wagering. Remember, they aren’t trying to be right, they’re trying to make money.
2) UConn is a trendy pick, but call me crazy, I think Michigan isn’t terrible this year. Go blue, I guess.
Totally called it.
I thought I saw something flash on a crawl about an injury in practice. Other than that, i dont know.
I got the Illinois vs Missouri game on right now, what younger players should I be watching out for?
Why does Rice play Texas?
Loki? Where are you with the JFK answer to that question? Don’t remember his exact words. And is that an urban legend or did he really say that?
If I heard the new Rice commercial yesterday correctly (I left the room during a commercial break but could still hear it), it actually plays the JFK speech.
I can’t speak to Rice, but I can speak to why Texas plays Rice: We play the two-and-ones with Rice to give our alumni in Houston an in-town game every three years (Dallas alumns already have Texas-OU), and I presume that we respect Rice as an institution enough to play them more frequently than Cougar U.
He really said it. You can find the speech on youtube. It was at Rice Stadium. It sometimes is claimed this is the speech that he gave before he got on the plane to Dallas. But this was months earlier. The Houston speech he gave before that trip to Dallas was a fundraiser downtown.
We play Texas because we have always played Texas. Rice is not a school to throw away traditions. Although the prop0sed sale of KTRU to UHouston makes many of us seethe.
Your Illini really looked like a football team again. I mean The kid QB of who’s name I can not spell will be a difference maker in the future. And that 3 man D-line was stoudt.
3 turnovers does not help by the kid. And he over-threw a number of 3rd down Yac type plays, but things looked promising if Missouri a good football team, and I think they are. Things may have just gotten more interesting for the rest of the confrence.
Well, you had the margin right.
Jacksonville State at Ole Miss is 41-34 right now in OT. I started watching when Jacksonville was down 26-34 and had the ball deep in the 4th.
What a game.
That was an absolute storybook ending. Ole Miss got their TD and a second TD. 48-41. Then on 4th down and long on their second chance, Jacksonville State gets the long TD deep in the endzone.
And they go for 2 down 47-48 for the win. Unbelievable 49-48 finish for Jacksonville State.
Oh and Ole Miss had a 21 point lead in the 2nd half, makes this all the more unbelievable.
And there’s joy in Fargo, and by extension Ames and Auburn (because neither hired Turner Gill): North Dakota State 6, Kansas 3.
Well if you really want to think about it with respect to Big Ten expansion, imagine if he had taken control of Nebraska instead of Bo and Nebraska was still in a down period…
But it’s just one game, so it’s not really fair to rate him based off that.
Lots of teams looked groggy opening week, but as long as they won, that will be forgotten if they play strong later in the year. That said, let’s make sweeping generalizations as if it wasn’t the first game of the year:
-Frank, Illinois looked like a real football team!
-Bil Snyder defeated an honest-to-goodness non-conference BCS team, and will never play one again!
-Hard to believe Kansas was in a BCS bowl not so long ago.
-Normally an opening day win against a top 25 opponent on a neutral field keeps fans on your side, but Les Miles is an always-entertaining special case. He could win the national title again this year, and people would still be wondering. Hard not to like the guy; also hard not to question him sometimes.
-Corollary: UNC looks pretty good. If they get some players back, they can make some noise.
-TCU looked fine, though I think they need to really dominate the lighter schools this season to justify a top 10 ranking. If, say, TCU and UNC were both to win the rest of their games, it would be a shame for TCU to be ranked ahead of them.
-Ole Miss. Ha. Seriously, I hope coaches learn to take the brakes off when a big lead starts to shrink.
-Vanderbilt scored 21 on Northwestern! More than they scored in any SEC game last year.
-I’ve read several people call UConn favorites or co-favorites to win the Big East, so good job by Michigan
-Corollary: with UConn losing big to Michigan and Pitt losing to Utah, the Big East still doesn’t look like a first-tier conference. Definitely deeper than the MWC, but not scary at the top.
Woe to anyone who tries to read anything into how many points they score on Northwestern. From last year:
Penn State 34
Michigan State 24
Eastern Michigan 24
Miami (OH) 6
Arguably the two worst FBS opponents were first and last in points. The two best were 4th and 12th.
I agree with you. NU’s formula lately has been to occupy the ball with the control passing and some Lightening strikes when behind aided by defense turnovers or good field passion. I read on another blog that some guys said so what that NU the big ten’s joke team beat another joke team. I really don’t think that guys have been paying attention. NU needs to get more yards out of their running backs though.
I like to see them limit the action to two and not 4 backs so they can get more carries to develop. I am confident that Persa can run the ball but he’s not the durable Juice Williams type. If he goes down the most ambitious part of the season is instantly over for the wildcats as his backup has no experience.
That poster’s logic flies in the face of the SEC’s so called ‘superiority from top to bottom’. So now we’ve established that at least Ole Miss and Vandy are considered ‘joke teams’ within the SEC, whereas NU has had a relatively consistent presence in bowl games over the last decade plus (damn we need to win one, though).
With the emergence of our top six brands, we’re about one championship away from a huge pendulum shift compared to the SEC.
I wouldn’t call Vandy a ‘joke team’, but I consider it the 11th or 12th best SEC team most years; I consider Northwestern to be a middle-of-the-road Big Ten the past decade. Remember, Jay Cutler got a lot of respect playing for Vanderbilt not because he won a lot of games, but because he made them actually competitive.
So yeah, I expected Northwestern to do a bit better.
That said, I did point out that it is the first week, and implied that all of my comments were ‘sweeping generalizations’ based on limited information. We make a lot of week 1 right now only because there’s no other results to talk about.
I was hoping for Northwestern to win more handily as well, but they always seem to struggle against random teams. Last year they needed a field goal as time expired to beat an Eastern Michigan team that ended up 0-12.
But M, your comment above says it all: NU doesn’t blow out teams as much as it wins. We’re still learning how to win. Unfortunately this habit seems to bite us when we play good teams, especially in Bowl games.
I don’t think NU will ever blow out teams, because the depth of talent just isn’t there. We have many smart tough kids who can make plays (and a few speedsters), which allows us to hang with and even beat more talented teams. However, if our players aren’t motivated and they’re going up against motivated underdogs, it’s going to be a close game. We’re not OSU; we can’t just rotate through our first, second, and third strings and wear down an underdog with superior size & skill.
I will never complain about a win, but at this rate I am going to die of a heart attack at 30.
I just don’t understand why random teams get much better playing Northwestern. The bowl games were frustrating, but they were against respectable teams. Just in the last three years, Northwestern struggled against Syracuse (1-6 in the Big East), EMU (0-12), Duke twice (1-15 in the ACC), Indiana (twice) and Minnesota teams (1-20 against the rest of the Big Ten).
Also, I don’t really think talent or depth differential is the issue. If Northwestern doesn’t have a fairly substantial talent advantage over Eastern Michigan, there’s something horribly wrong.
??? It’s not substantial enough that we can coast to a win when we’re not motivated and EMU is. The difference in talent between OSU and NU is greater than the difference in talent between NU and EMU.
LOL! Richard for what they pay for it, it better be.
It took me a few days to figure out that was Charles Oakley and not Frank Robinson on the far left…
Beautiful! Life is good.
Boise St, the new Notre Dame. Shunned and ducked by the power schools, builds its rep by being willing to play anyone anywhere and then beating them. Another underdog fighting the corrupt system. America’s Team.
Sorry, but the blue field is an offense to humanity. I have to root against them.
Agreed (about the Smurf Turf). I’d be interested to see how how Boise would do w/ a BCS conference schedule. It is much easier to play 2-3 tough games a year, than it is to play a conference slate full of tough games.
If you think Boise’s turf is an affront, wait till you cross the border and see the turf newly installed at Eastern Washington University. It’s in school color, too...red. (As Jack Paar would have said, I kid you not.) I fear the eventual installation of purple and orange turf at Clemson, or maroon and orange at Virginia Tech (to go with the array of new uniforms the Gobblers regularly wear; they are becoming the Oregon of the East).
Vincent – ESPN’s Colin Cowherd is an alum of Eastern Washington and donated to that abomination.
Someone needs to be lined up on a wall and shot, so this won’t continue. Works in China.
I have no respect for that turf but I greatly respect the football program. My guess is the turf was an attraction or something for college football fans to talk about. Now that the mission is accomplished, I do hope they lose the smurf turf.
The power schools haven’t really shunned or ducked Boise St. The power schools just haven’t given in to Boise’s unreasonable demands for home and home series.
Their Pac-10 neighbors from Oregon did. The Ducks got stomped both at home and on the road. The Beavers lost at home and they’ll go to Boise in a few weeks.
It’s not like Boise State hasn’t tried to improve their schedule. They can’t get home-and-homes with most power BCS schools because their stadium’s too small and nobody wants to travel out to Idaho just to sustain a probable loss to a WAC school. So they switch conferences to the Mountain West and the two most viable WAC schools with them. Having to play Utah, TCU and BYU (in addition to a slight upgrade in the middle to bottom of the conference) would certainly earn them more respect…. Too bad the Utah schools bolted.
It’s not like Boise can just go and join the Pac 10. Their university is a joke, the rest of their sports program is practically nonexistant and they play in a small town in a tiny state. I suppose sometime down the road, the Big XII could be a distant possibility, but that’s only if things go even further south for that conference.
It’s unreasonable for any WAC school to demand a home and home series from most any BCS power team. The Oregon schools share a border with Idaho. I’m guessing geography is why the Beavers and Ducks can do it. If Boise would take a two for one, they might get more takers.
FWIW, LSU scheduled a home and home with TCU in 13 and 14. LA & TX are border states and many LSU fans/alums reside in the Metroplex.
Also, LSU & Oregon will open up the 2011 season at Cowboys Stadium.
Why is it unreasonable?
Bullet – Its unreasonable to expect teams with 70 to 100 + thousand seat stadiums to lose a home game( and the millions of $$$ that a home game brings in) to go to a 40K seat blue-turf stadium in the middle of nowhere, that won’t accommodate the 7-10K fans that go on roadies.
If Boise wants to play the big boys, they need to take a page from Bobby Bowden and Florida State in the 70s and much of the 80s, ie anytime, anywhere. FSU took road games to traditional powers without return trips while building up their reputation, fan base, and home stadium capacity. Miami did the same thing.
Plus, Boise would probably gross more money playing roadies against big-time schools than they make at a home game on the smurf turf. I know Boise can’t do much with their conference schedule, but if they want to be taken seriously every year, they should use their OOC games to schedule 3-4 tough roadies. Just about any school would take Boise as a home game. If Boise scheduled USC, Iowa, Auburn, and West Virginia as OOC road games, their overall schedule with WAC/MWC conference membership would still be easier, overall, than any Big Ten/SEC/Big XII schedule.
SEC, Big Ten and Big XII schools don’t owe Boise anything. They especially don’t owe Boise a home game and the loss of millions of dollars. If they really want to be a big boy team, and aren’t in a big boy conference, follow the Florida State/Miami model when they were independents.
20 schools draw 70k a game. Hawaii and Fresno from the WAC outdraw at least 1 school from every autobid conference (and half the BE).
So are you saying Michigan shouldn’t do a home-and-home with Colorado who draws half the number of fans?
Basically, what you are saying is that it is unreasonable to do anything other than what the SEC does (with a few exceptions)-schedule nobodies who will take the money and run. And how many SEC schools even do 2 and 1s?
Boise opens the 2011 season at Ole Miss. No return game. $900K. I’ll be a Bronco fan that day.
BTW, the SEC non-conference schedule for 2011 includes: LSU at West Virginia; Alabama at Penn State; Auburn at Clemson; Boise State at Ole Miss; Arkansas v. Texas A&M, and LSU v. Oregon in Cowboys Stadium. Additionally, Georgia plays Georgia Tech every year, as well as Florida/Florida State, South Carolina/Clemson, and Kentucky/Louisville.
Interesting, much different than typical.
Alabama at Duke
Arkansas vs. A&M Dallas
UGA at CU
LSU vs. VT Atlanta
Ole Miss at Tulane
MS. St. at Houston
Vandy at UConn
All the other games at home except for the annual in-state games (UK/UL, UF/FSU, SC/Clemson). Wonder if Duke, Tulane and UH are 2 for 1.
I wonder if it’s ESPN trying to get value for their money by “encouraging” SEC schools to schedule tough OOC opponents, since ESPN/ABC will be showing the games both at home and away (CBS has only 1 nonconf SEC game on its TV schedule).
Richard – CBS doesn’t begin showing SEC games until after the US Open is over. The SEC is under contract with ESPN, but the only games that can be shown on ABC are the games in which the SEC team is designated as the visitor.
Either way, ESPN/ABC benefits, since they’ll get these juicy early-season OOC games featuring eyeball-drawing SEC teams.
Personally, I don’t see how any self-respecting AD would allow his team to play on that blue field. No need to discuss any other details, imo.
Arrogant and gutless excuse making.
Playoffs now – call it what you want, but its just economics.
More irrational hatred and fear from the ‘elite’ programs. It’s all D1A and Boise lines up and smashes them in the mouth. They’re just stunned that Boise and others have pointed out that the emperor has no clothes.
Loki – I have nothing against Boise. I enjoyed them schooling Oklahoma just as much as anybody. They are a great story and Peterson is a great coach. If Les Miles quits to go to Michigan or gets fired, Peterson would be my first phone call.
But its just different to get up for one or two games a year, versus playing 5 or 6 ranked teams and a host of decent conference rivals, like they do in the Big Ten, Big XII and SEC. This year, with 23 returning starers, I think Boise would probably win 9 or 10 games in the Big Ten, Big XII, or SEC.
Illinois fans– Do you have a sense of whether the Zooker has a chance to be retained aftyer this year? How many games must he win, in your opinion, to keep his job?
As a follow-up question, Illini fans, what keeps Illinois from joining MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin as a second-tier B10 program?
I wouldn’t consider MSU to be in the same tier as Iowa and Wisconsin.
Agreed that they presently aren’t, but I have to think they’re getting their stuff together now. Have you ever been to MSU? It’s truly a football factory…..
Not lately, but they are historically pretty good.
If you take in to account tradition and home state recruiting richness, the tiers in terms of potential should be
Illinois, Wisconsin, MSU
Iowa, NU, Minn, IU, PU
Iowa & NU (and PU to an extent) have overacheived. Illinois and PSU have underachieved.
In terms of having football talent, I think Illinois beats Michigan and Nebraska put together.
Basketball is also very strong here. Maybe that has something to do with it.
Agree 100% except I don’t think Purdue has underachieved. Indiana has fewer D1 recruits than PA, Ohio, Michigan, or Illinois, none of which has more than 2 BCS schools.
Indiana has more D1 recruits than Iowa, Wisconsin, or Minnesota-however, those schools don’t have serious in-state competition for fans or recruits (ISU is semi-serious competition). Also, there is aero competition from the pros for fans in Iowa or Nebraska. That’s a huge factor.
I put Purdue in the “overacheiver” category.
PSU’s the underacheiver, and that’s because JoePa’s been in the decline phase for the last decade or so (better recently, but PSU has no business having 4 losing seasons in the last 10 when Nebraska & Michigan, with far less in-state talent, have combined for only 3 in the past decade while WVU & VTech, in the same area but with less tradition and money to work with, have combined for only 1 losing season in the last decade).
Yes, sorry, I misread that. Agree with you about PSU, excpet that I agree JoePa has been in the decline phase for 10 years or so, and it’s pretty amazing that they’ve done as well as they have. Must show what a great staff they have.
I would think Bradley would get that job when Joe is gone…..and that he will get them up to the OSU level pretty soon……
the third tier coaching and recruiting
As an answer to your second question Coaching, recruits and money. They seemingly are never there at the same time. Otherwise the sky has always been the limit for the Illini. The best coaches often get better recruits after a couple of years, then the school invest in more football facilities or funds.
There is not as much Div I talent in Illinois as in Ohio or Pennsylvania but the Michigan’s and Ohio State and name the next winning program have always been able to come in and take the cream of the crop because of their historical advantage in winning.
That’s not as true anymore but they all have to go get talent from multiple locations. Although Illinois has enough talent to maintain themselves in the middle of the pack. There is little reason for them to be seller dwellers for more than a couple of years in a decade.
By the way, If you look at this link for John Mackovic, if you look at his Illinois period or section and I think you are looking at where the Illinois program should be.
We have a different perception of Mackovic at Texas.
Although, unlike the vast majority of Texas fans, I did see some good points. His defenses struggled, but his offenses had great talent. The team that upset UNL in the 1st B12 championship game had Priest Holmes as the #3 back (behind Shon Mitchell who injured his knee and was never the same and a freshman named Ricky Williams).
The question really should be “What keeps Illinois from joining Northwestern, MSU, and Purdue as a 3rd tier B10 program”? In the last 15 years, they are 5-10 against NU, 1-10 against MSU, and 2-7 against Purdue. They only school they have a winning record against in that period is Indiana.
Maybe it’s easier then to look at the question backward. “how does NU do it and Illinois can’t?”
NU has some built in disadvantage such as their exceptionally high academic standards. This is a real issue as most of the best players most of us knew in high school were not working for the day they got into Harvard or NU.
Illinois by itself is a state school which makes it more open but it is also pubic ivy. Generally around 3rd or 4th annually in conference academically with NU always 1st.
There has been stability in coaching in Randy Walker and Pat Fitzgerald.
They redshirt a lot
They systematically develop players
Not a lot of problem student athletes. Recruit character.
A winning season and a bowl is the goal.
I don’t know if they do any magic here but from someone looking in from outside the athletic department, this is what I see.
Illinois by itself is a state school which makes it more open but it is also pubic ivy.
Gee, I hope you meant “public Ivy.”
The Boise State Debate:
PSU = 2 MNC’s = 1982, 1986 = as independent
FSU = 2 MNC’s = 1993, 1999 = 2 MNC’s in ACC
Miami = 5 MNC’s = 1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, 2001 = as independent
BYU = 1 MNC = 1984 = as independent
Ga Tech 1990 = 1 MNC in ACC
PSU since joining Big 10 = ZERO MNC’s
Miami since joining the ACC = ZERO MNC’s
BYU since joining the MWC = ZERO MNC’s
ACC since going to 12 teams and CCG = ZERO MNC’s
Boise State plays weak schedule + no CCG = ZERO MNC’s
From several previous posts on this blog:
3 + 2 = 4 – 2 = 2 – 1 = Real NC (with minimal upset of student time)
where my future means a much more level playing field where anybody getting to the NC game had to play at least 1 CCG to get there to weed the contenders out from the pretenders like Boise State is today! especially in light of the fact that now the Pac 10 and Big 10 will be playing CCG’s in the future so the SEC and ACC are not penalized for playing the extra game every season (yeah Big 12, you screwed yourself on that one).
In short is Boise State a MNC from the past, allowed advantage of schedule to play in the BCS MNC game? I would argue no! I am not denying the Boise State has a good football team, but having a schedule like previous BCS MNC games to get their should matter too!
I hope ESPN manages to put the MWC and CUSA winner together. Add that with a Plus-One system, and you’re almost there to a playoff. CCGs in the Big10, SEC, ACC, and Pac10; only the Texas league and BE don’t have title games. You’d still have 7 possible NC contenders for 4 slots, but we’d be almost there.
Mountain West vs. Conference USA seems like a waste. When was the last time any of its teams were nationally relevant? I know the MWC will be weakened a bit from the departure of Utah and BYU, but it ought to be a respectable league with TCU, Boise, Air Force and Fresno at the top. It seems more logical to try and match them up with the Big East.
Part of the reason so many teams have been getting jobbed in the modern era is that there is only really one national champion every year. That’s the way things should be, obviously, but it’s hard to justify allowing an “undisputed champ” when all we’ve got is a bowl system to determine the final rankings.
The BE would go down that road only if forced to by the other power conferences. CUSA might not have produced any national title contenders, but they could (unlike the Sun Belt, MAC, and what’s left of the WAC).
Judging from your analysis I see that it might be in the interest of the Big and SEC to force some type of CCG or Cross conference CCG for some lesser conferences. While it’s a hindrance for them, it’s also a sure way into the discussion and a path to an NC that was otherwise unlikely.
in an earlier post I postulated (5) 16 team conferences
2 lesser conferences meet post season for right to Sugar Bowl slot
Sugar Bowl = SEC plays lesser survivor
Rose Bowl = Big 10 CCG winner meets Pac 10 CCG winner
Rose Bowl winner meets Sugar Bowl winner in NC game!
After playing in a 16 team conference and a CCG why would you submit to making the rose bowl a deciding game? . What if tOSU is ranked 7th and USC 8th. You probably need to play 1 or 2 to get to the trophy. Then The SEC is playing the winner of a lesser conference as compared to USC or tOSU?
I really don’t like the NC messing up the traditional bowl arrangements.
I think an additional two bowls are needed where one plays two and three plays four after the bowls. The only purpose of these bowls is to decide the # 1 and 2 teams at the conclusion of the games.
the idea was to keep the tradition of the Rose Bowl with B10 / P10 schools represented. It also keeps these 2 bowls as the top of the bowl pyramid. The 2 lesser conferences would still have good teams, based on merging multiple remaining conferences into a “private school” conference that would include Notre Dame and Miami and a “public school” conference that would include Florida State and Missouri. This would mean that the SEC CCG winner would meet basically the best the rest of the country had to offer. Think of it this way.
The Best of the Big 10 plays the Best of the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl (to keep historic ties in place). This means the Big 10 has a 50% chance to be in the National Championship Game EVERY year! In addittion, the Best of the SEC would have to play the best of the rest EVERY year, just for the shot to meet a Big 10 / Pac 10 team in the NC EVERY year. 😉
My own thought on five 16-team conferences was to have an 8 team playoff. Rose Bowl gets the Pac/Big Ten matchup, of course. The Sugar (SEC), Orange (ACC) and Fiesta (BigXII/MWC/WAC mashup) all get one permanent conference tie-in and one at-large.
I think this does a good enough job of keeping traditional bowls as destinations for conference champions while providing access to independents and/or a second bite of the apple to the conferences that think one playoff bid would be insufficient for them to sign up.
As it is, conference champions and runners-up play 14 games/year (12 regular season, conference championship game, and bowl). Fans of those teams already are making two unscheduled trips (CCG & bowl). With an 8 team playoff, you think they’d be willing & able to do two more? You think the bowl games could expect to sell neutral-site tickets with one week’s notice each time for three straight weeks? Do you realize that an 8-team playoff would require the two teams in the final to play 16 games?
This is why there isn’t a playoff.
The only hope is for conference championship games to be sacrificed and/or for 11-game regular seasons to return (both extremely unlikely), which would allow for an 8-team playoff where the final teams play just 14 or 15 games. Plus, the early rounds would have to be on-campus. Neutral sites aren’t practical; otherwise, the NFL would have had AFC & NFC championship games at neutral sites by now.
12 regular season games
1 RB / SB game
1 NC game
15 total games, so it only adds 1 more game than what an SEC or ACC team play right now! 15 games total to crown a true National Champion every year!
Division 3 has a 32 game playoff. So those schools with non-scholarship programs play 5 playoff games in addition to the regular season. Division II has 24, so they may play 5 playoff games. FCS just went to 20. The number of games is a non-issue.
And yes, enough would travel. 1st round games on 1-1 and the championship would no doubt be sellouts every year. I’m pretty sure semi-finals would be also.
Division III teams have a 10 game regular season.
Division II and FCS schools have an 11 game regular season.
The number of games does matter. More importantly to the money men, not diminishing the importance of regular season games matters more. That’s why I don’t see anything more radical than a Plus-One in the next few decades.
bullet and richard,
the point was having all the major conferences (Big 10, Pac 10, SEC, + 2 new / reformed conferences) play a CCG at the end of the regular season creates the defacto first round of a playoff without extending or contracting the regular season. Right now the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 already do this – so it is not adding any new games.
The Big 10 CCG winner meets the Pac 10 CCG winner in the Rose Bowl (which means no new added game, and keeps the historic importance of the Rose Bowl)
The SEC CCG winner meets the “best of the rest” in the Sugar Bowl
Rose Bowl winner meets Sugar Bowl winner in (1) added game for the National Championship.
At most you add one more game for (2) teams to travel too, and assures the Big 10 a 50% chance to play for a National Championship EVERY year!!!!
this is an 8 team “play off” with little change to the current system:
8 teams =
Big 10 Team #1
Big 10 Team #2
Pac 10 Team #1
Pac 10 Team #2
SEC Team #1
SEC Team #2
Other Team #1
Other Team #2
plays CCG, so
4 teams =
Big 10 Team
Pac 10 Team
(play each other in Rose Bowl)
(play each other in Sugar Bowl)
2 teams =
Rose Bowl winner
Sugar Bowl winner
(play each other for the National Championship)
why is this such a hard concept for folks to grasp? It would be simple, and cause the least amount of disruption for student athletes and fans!
why try to “insert” a new playoff system when a pretty good one already exists? why try to reinvent the wheel?
Gimme a break. With an 8-team playoff you simply schedule the post-bowl 2nd round on campus. The final championship game would be so big it would be like the Super Bowl, where corporate and national fan interest would scarf up every overpriced ticket.
If schools were so worried about extra home games hurting their fan’s bowl travel they wouldn’t be trying to schedule 7 or 8 home games per year, nor would they have added the CCG.
This weekend has a great slate of games, including 4 games between ranked teams.
#18 Penn St. at #1 Alabama
#12 Miami (FL) at #2 Ohio St.
#17 Florida St. at #10 Oklahoma
#22 Georgia at #24 South Carolina
Other games involving ranked teams against BCS AQ opponents include:
#7 Oregon at Tennessee
South Florida at #8 Florida
Iowa St. at #9 Iowa
#15 Georgia Tech at Kansas
Virgina at #16 USC
#19 LSU at Vandy
#21 Auburn at Mississippi St. (Thurs)
#25 Stanford at UCLA
There will be a lot of movement in the polls after these games are played.
-Penn State definitely has their hands full…
-We’ll find out who’s for real–Miami or tOSU
-FSU has their hands full, Okie doesn’t lose in Okie
-O has some serious O, Vols need some more Vols…
-UF will smother in-state wanna-be
-Iowa had better smother in-state rival
-Kansas should stick with BB
-Hopefully Virginia takes out half of SC starters… Gophers might have chance then next week… 😉
-Brawn should (I said should) beat Brains in this one.
Should be some good FB…
-Auburn by 20
-UCLA lost to KSU last week, will be bigger loss this week.
I have a general question/comment for the crowd…
Was in Florida over the Holiday weekend visiting family… My 15 yr old nephew had a scheduled football practice on labor day… No schools, banks, gov’t agencies are open, but they have football practice?? (and this is JV.!)
My brother even stated that if my nephew were to miss that practice, it could impact his playing time… This seems to me to be odd, and very wrong…
I know that things have changed since I was in high school (i.e. hockey camps in summer, volleyball/bb/you-name-it camps out of season…), but, I am unaware of any holiday type commitments…
Maybe this is why high school football is what it is in FLA… still doesn’t make it right IMHO (wrong priorities)…
Anyone with thoughts/comments on this one??
I played HS football in Ohio a few years back. We definitely had practice on Labor Day and MLK Day.
I decided to quit playing football in Jr. High when I was registering for school 2 weeks before school started and the Jr. High kids were already out practicing. And this was the 1st week of August in the Houston heat and humidity. Weather was a little different than what I played in while in Ohio (and I really liked basketball better, but didn’t have the talent for it).
Now it paid off for them. The next year they won the Houston Jr. High championship. When they got to HS, they went 7-3 at a school that had won 9 games in its first 6 years. That started a winning tradition at that school that has had only 1 or 2 losing seasons since the 70s.
My son played high school ball two years back. If i recall right they had a morning practice on labor day. But he played in the highest division ,8A, in IL. Football started about two weeks after school started in the summer through to November I think. There was the pre camp (paid) and the regular summer camp for season prep. Keep em out of trouble.
Sorry two weeks after school ended for the summer. Same time summer school started. I made mines go every year just to stay sharp.
Duffman— We got the peter jurkin but we didn’t get the BJ…….so now it’s down to Yogi and Zeller…..
getting blackmon from kentucky was nice
looks like zeller will be at IU at the end of october, I am glad pu is not on his list with many pu alum in washington, so IU looks to be in a better position if th kid stays in state. would be nice if UNC were out of the picture because it would put the focus back on Indiana (the state) basketball.
to keep this football related…
will you be putting up your vote every week? if so what day of the week should we be looking for it?
The Big Sky conference isn’t taking conference realignment sitting down.
Cal Poly and UC Davis are going to the Big Sky for football only, as they drop their requirement that schools join in all sports.
Take that Montana and your “Maybe, if the economy gets better and Montana State can come along” talk about moving up to FBS and the WAC.
Time Warner Cable will announce its plans for the Big Ten Network, ESPN content and more during a press conference at 11 a.m. Thursday at its offices.
In attendance will be Nebraska athletic director Tom Osborne.
At a press conference this morning Time Warner Cable announced the Big Ten Network will be available starting Friday on channel 238 and in high definition on channel 1238.
And there you go, already got that one done.
Interesting article regarding BTN.
Big Ten Network Cashing in On Football
Sponsors return, more advertisers added for new primetime grid
By Jon Lafayette — Broadcasting & Cable, 9/6/2010