There are multiple breaking reports this morning that Notre Dame will move its sports other than football and basketball from the Big East to the ACC. Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune reports that there will be announcements made today in both South Bend and North Carolina, while Brett McMurphy of ESPN says that the deal entails Notre Dame playing 5 ACC schools per year in football. I’ll have some more thoughts on this later, but you can discuss this huge conference realignment news in this thread in the meantime.
(Follow Frank the Tank’s Slant on Twitter @frankthetank111 and Facebook)
FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT 
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But I thought they were B12 bound.
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I’ll believe 5 games when I see it.
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Exactly. They couldn’t even play 3 against the Big East.
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They already play Pitt and BC regularly. They might need some ACC bottom-feeders to round out their schedule if they keep Michigan, MSU, and USC.
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ACC is a better fit for them for Olympic sports than the Bigs- East, 12 with 10 or 10 with 12.
The Catholic Big East schools generally don’t have the extensive sports programs and ND doesn’t view itself as a peer with the commuter schools-Cincy, UL, UH, USF, UCF, Memphis, Temple.
The Big 12 isn’t really in their student recruiting territory.
The B1G is pretty much all enormous state research universities while Notre Dame is much smaller and more undergraduate focused.
ACC will now have 6 of 15 schools private, 1 (Pitt) semi-public, 3 realtively small elite state research universities (UNC, UVA, GT), 4 mid-size state universities (VT,NCSU,Clemson,FSU) and only 1 (Maryland) enormous state research university.
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bullet, I totally agree. I was joking about the B12 rumors. The ACC is the perfect fit for ND, I’ve always felt they’d be a terrible addition to the B1G.
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I was wondering if the academics would start to get uncomfortable with the CUSA members. Pitt and SU may have been a good move after all—Or the partial membership could be a long term disaster. This will be interesting.
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to clarify-the academicians at Notre Dame vs. the former CUSA now Big East members.
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‘In addition to the athletic component, Notre Dame’s president, Rev. John I. Jenkins, C.S.C., said the ACC offers other advantages.
“The ACC is composed of some of the most highly respected universities in the country, and we at Notre Dame look forward to joining them,” Father Jenkins said. “With a mix of institutions – many of which are also private, similar to Notre Dame in size, and committed to excellence in research and undergraduate education – the ACC is an exceptionally good fit for us academically, as well as athletically.” Father Jenkins added: “It is our hope that, over time, we will be able to explore the possibility of academic collaboration as well as athletic competition with these outstanding universities.” ‘
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Florida State is also a large research university. It enrolls several thousand more students than Maryland.
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Add.
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I win!
Made the most sense
Private school going to a private conference, the question is will Uconn be far behind?
The other big question is if this means a new deal with ESPN?
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If the ACC further expands, it will be by two, because a 15-member football conference with two divisions is unwieldy. If it’s two, they almost certainly will be Rutgers and Connecticut.
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Actually, if they are only going to add one school it would need to be somebody like Georgetown who doesn’t play 1-A football.
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Noted elsewhere:
Tweet from Brian Fischer from CBS:
In addition to invitation to ND, ACC Council of Presidents voted to increase the conference exit fees to 3x operating budget. (~$50 mill)
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The increase in the exit fees is big. If true, Maryland, FSU and Clemson aren’t going anywhere. Noone else seemed to have any interest other than as a defensive move.
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This sounds like the end of college football movement for a long time.
Texas and ND would be secured and no one’s going to leave the ACC with a $50M exit fee…
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zeek, agreed that this ends this round of realignment, at least at the BCS level.
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I think you both are right, but I’ve thought it was done before.
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Wonder how happy UT and OU will be. The diminished Big12 now has little likelihood of regaining the stature they had before 2010.
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The B12 is the #1 ranked football conference in ‘Murica.
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UT got the LHN secured as a part of the Big 12’s media package for ESPN, and OU is getting a pretty good deal with Fox. I’m not sure this changes much for either.
UT’s main focus is trying to get the LHN to be profitable with ESPN so they don’t have to take a pay cut to make this work.
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And nobody’s gonna leave the SEC because they flat don’t want to.
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Exit penalties are routinely negotiated down (A&M and Nebraska both payed about half what they owed) and the explosion of revenue means they can be financed by loans from the new conference.
I never bought the FSU and Clemson to the Big XII rumors, but if all the ACC schools were serious about guaranteeing the conference’s long term survival they would signing a GOR not agreeing to toothless exit penalties.
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Spot on frug; money means nothing, rights mean everything.
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Just a point of information question. How many need to leave a conference in order for the rights holder to no longer exist? 60%? 70%.? 100%?
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Depends on the specific conference by laws regarding number of votes necessary to dissolve the conference. That could mean anywhere from simple majority to unanimous consent.
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Not only that, but just suppose Penn State left the B1G for the Big East. Would the Big East care that it did not have the TV rights to Penn State? Maybe. Or maybe the juice from having Penn State would outweigh the $$$ at issue. The gate would defeat the TV rights, etc.
Meanwhile, the B1G would have the rights to Penn State/Memphis and Penn State/SMU. Wow. That’s hardly a good deal for the B1G. Would they even bother showing those games? In the end, I am sure that the Big East, Penn State, and the B1G would “work something out.” Just like what has happened with the buy outs on exit fees.
The real issue would be the impossibility of Penn State leadership authorizing the shift for financial and other reasons. The G of R is a secondary or tertiary concern.
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No one has paid full freight yet on an exit fee. Going rate is 25% of the stated value.
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Not true. Syracuse and Pitt each paid 50%. Their fee was less because they left the B.E. before it was raised.
Moreover, the ACC has a far better chance of justifying its liquidated damages as reasonable. Plus, the incentive to fight over a $50,000,000 clause is a bit higher than that involving a $10,000,000 clause.
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Just when I thought it was getting slow around here.
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Didn’t they make a similar 5 game promise to the Big East? I don’t think they lived up to that.
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Huge coup for the ACC; gets them 2-3 games guaranteed for their TV contracts, and it likely secures the conference for the long haul.
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Is a Big East split in the works? A Catholic league with St. Louis and Creighton?
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TV money (ironically as it sounds) is still likely to hold the Big East together. There still may be more money for the basketball schools in staying with the football schools and negotiating their basketball as a gigantic package.
Or I could be totally wrong, and the Notre Dame move is a sign that the Catholic schools were preparing to bolt at some point regardless…
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GEAUX LSU Fightin’ Tigers!
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ACC release.
http://www.theacc.com/genrel/091212aaa.html
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ND:
http://www.und.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/091212aaf.html
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Nugget in there is that ND is an ACC team for (non BCS) Bowls.
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Anyone willing to speculate on who #16 is? Will there be a #16?
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I’d speculate no #16. That’d give them an odd number of full time football members. And another mouth to feed.
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Is there another non-football school that would make a good #16?
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There were some rumors someone would be brought in as a non-football member. The rumors were either Georgetown, Villanova, and some mystery third school that played FBS football
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They need another non-football member, preferably of high academic standing and private. I suggest Rice.
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I think Rice would be a perfect full time member.
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No #16 until ND joins as a full conference member or if they accept Texas on a similar arrangement to ND as #16.
They don’t need a #16 unless ND joins as a full member…
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@zeek – Agreed. ND is the only school that the ACC would ever agree to grant a partial membership to and there’s no need to expand on the football side with this move.
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It will be interesting to see how conference revenues are split. What about Tier 2 and 3 revenues? What about the Orange Bowl? I would think this could have some affect on ND’s NBC deal.
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Only reason I doubt it has much impact is they already were doing almost 4 home-home ACC games (including Pitt) in a typical schedule of late.
If you drop a Big Ten series, they still have around 7 home games on the schedule. That’s what NBC was paying for before and will still be paying for…
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I really doubt ND completely drops any of their 3 B10 series. Most likely is that they play Michian and MSU 4 times in 6 years, so they play a B10 team 2 & 1/3rd times a year on average. They may play BYU 2/3rds of the time, leaving 1 series a year for Texas/OU and another B10 power when Michigan is off the schedule (Wisconsin/Nebraska/OSU/maybe PSU).
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Correction: 7 home or neutral site games (so long as it is broadcast by NBC, they don’t really care where it is played).
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The scheduling impact is going to be way overblown today.
USC, Stanford, Navy = no change (need to keep 1 game on WC annually, and Navy is never going away).
5 ACC games.
Keep 2 Big Ten games and drop Michigan series (likely that both sides want this to end anyways; Michigan’s schedules are too lopsided).
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@zeek – I’m guessing that this is what will happen (although it might become a rotation between Michigan and Michigan State).
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I’m an MSU guy, but i also love ND. This would be a shame.
I like the ND and UM game, but the ND and MSU game has a much longer, more respectful history and general tone. ND should drop MI and just play them every now and then. Keep Purdue and MSU as the regular B10 opponents. Though MSU inexplicably seems to be looking for breaks as well, which i am totally against. I’ll also believe 5 ACC games when I see it.
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@ jj: Hollis and company will have to work some magic to keep MSU series with ND intact. The current breaks in the series as I understand it were pushed by N.D. Gotta figure ND will want even more breaks going forward. If MSU stays on the national stage none of this matters. If they take a step back, ND on the schedule is critical for national exposure.
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Yep. I’ve heard the breaks were fairly mutual but who really knows. Hollis is a magician so we shall see. They filled the current gaps with Baja, WV and I believe Oregon so that’s pretty good. Plus we have 2 more with Boise on deck. They will have strong schedules going forward.
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Reading they will play everyone in 3 years. That would be home and home with each of the 14 over 6 years-28 games. If they do 5 a year, that means maybe Pitt or Miami gets 4 while everyone else gets 2 over 5 years.
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Agree. They are already playing four ACC teams this year (Wake, Pitt, BC, Miami) and have four on the schedule in 2015 & 2016 (when this most likely will kick in). Easy to add one. Maryland is the most likely pickupas it gets games in the DC area where alumni are. The five will be: Pitt, Syracuse (played in NYC market), BC, Maryland, and Miami). ND visiting Charlottesville, Blacksburg, Chapel Hill, Raleigh, Winston-Salem, Durham, Clemson, or Talahassee is a long shot.
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ND has visited Chapel Hill in the past and would consider UVa an academic peer as well. They definitely have played @FSU before (have you forgotten?) Duke and WFU likely would agree to 2-for-1’s.
VTech, Clemson, & NCSU likely would be played neutral site (another game @FedEx & another 2 in Atlanta).
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If the deal truly is “play everyone ever 3 years”, and it really is on a home and home basis, then ND already has agreed to in fact play everyone in the ACC on their home fields, and not on a 2:1 basis. My sense is that this is what has happened, though of course they haven’t published full details yet.
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I’m not sure where you get the idea that it is really on a HaH basis wiith every ACC school.
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The same place you are getting that it won’t?
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It’s already been stated that ND plays everyone every 3 years (I suspect they’ll let it slip to every 4 years w/ some teams playing ND more than others, though I could be wrong). wrt home and home vs something else, I think the default assumption is that it will be, barring info that it isn’t.
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“The same place you are getting that it won’t?”
ND has a history of giving 2-for-1’s to schools with small stadiums like Wake. ND doesn’t have a history of giving HaH’s to all schools in a conference.
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It’s not scheduling impact now, it is for scheduling certainty in the future when/if the rest of the conferences go to 9 game. ACC 5 plus USC, Navy, Stanford, leaves only 4 more games to fill per year.
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Big whoop. Outside the B10, who else would ND want to play who also wants to play them (taking out almost the entire SEC)? Texas and OU. Anyone else?
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Washington, Oregon, and Army for starters.
I could see Air Force, Arizona and/or ASU also being of interest but ranking behind the others.
Out of the SEC I could see Arkansas as a possibility if they can prove they can win without Petrino and maybe a series with A&M.
A game against Alabama in Dallas would also be pretty easy to set up I suspect.
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Of course, recently, ND has played these teams something like 1-2 times a decade. Seems that 1 open slot a year is enough to fit in the lot of them.
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I’m not really sure I understand the speculation about the Michigan and ND series ending considering (I thought?) the contract was extended until the early/mid 2020s with a 2 year gap in 2018/19. Additionally, the ND and Michigan ADs have repeatedly said they plan to extend the series with regular, infrequent gaps in the schedule.
Here are the sure things on ND’s schedule:
5 ACC + #1 Rival USC + Navy + instate/down the road rival Purdue. Somebody said Stanford so ND can hit California every year. Fine.
Who are they going to fill out the remaining 3 games with? They already historically play FSU, Miami, Maryland, Pitt, GT, Cuse semi regularly…I can’t even come up with 5 powerhouse ACC programs anyway. The point is this: some of those ACC games will be cupcakes made up of Duke and Wake and Cuse. You can’t fill the last 3 ‘open’ games with USF, Louisiana Monroe and Western Michigan and expect Irish fans to be happy with that schedule if you’re already playing 3 ACC games against (insert ACC team not named VT, FSU, Miami here).
Michigan-ND doesn’t have as many total games played as USC, Purdue, Navy or even MSU. But there’s no way those two fanbases let the series run its course because the ACC just grabbed one more game on the schedule than they played this season.
I totally agree people are overreacting to this news. In a nutshell, the ACC and its teams can now sell the FACT that they will play ND 5 times guaranteed per year. The only thing changing for Notre Dame will be one more sure ACC game.
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ND has a fair amount of history with Pitt, Cuse, BC and GT. The only ACC teams that seem overly “meh” for ND (i.e. not name brands AND no history) are Duke, Wake, and NC St.
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Breaking: ND joins big east circa 2002
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Also add
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I personally think the Big Ten schools should consider dropping ND from their schedules. Not because it isn’t financially lucrative for the Big Ten to play ND but due to recruiting. When ND plays Big Ten schools it promotes ND in the Midwest. I would rather see these Midwest recruits end up at other B1G schools.
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But for Purdue and Michigan State, it’s a pretty big boon to have ND on the schedule annually. That season ticket package is a lot more valuable with ND on it every other year, and probably a decent thing for recruits too.
The only reason why any of these games would be dropped is inconvenience for both sides (i.e. Michigan-ND with how all of Michigan’s big home games are on one year and all away the next).
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MSU would never drop them. In addition to the money and just general good time of the games, MSU somewhat feels indebted to ND for helping it in the past. In my opinion, this is a respectful rivalry.
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Michigan State started as an IND and Purdue has the longest history. Call me old fashioned but I can see both staying on the schedule :
5 ACC games
2 B1G games – Purdue and Michigan State
1 PAC game – Southern Cal
1 IND game – Navy
That leaves 3 game slots open
1 Michigan or Stanford
1 Big 12 or SEC
1 TBA team every year
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duffman,
I think they’ll keep Stanford to always have 1 west coast game. I could see the MI series taking a lot more breaks and plugging in other major programs instead (UT, OU, LSU, other). I’d also expect to see BYU a lot, being another religious independent. Also, ND can try to get 2 for 1s from BYU. Based on all the power schools on their schedule, they may try to play Army a bunch, too.
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My guess is that we’ll likely see 2 ND vs. Big Ten games per year instead of the current 3 (possibly 4 years on/2 years off for each of Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State or mixing in a Northwestern-type every once in awhile). I agree with Brian that Stanford is likely staying on the schedule because ND has definitely made it a priority to have 1 game in California every year (which is important for both recruiting and connecting with alums in LA and the Bay Area).
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Frank,
I think ND will keep Purdue annually to be nice. MSU and MI will probably take more breaks.
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I have a tough time seeing ND-Purdue going away. ND is Purdue’s biggest game of the year and the game has been played for more than 80 years (basically as long as the Navy and USC series).
ND isn’t a public school, but I still doubt they want to irk the local pols by calling off that series unilaterally.
A more likely scenario is simply rotating MSU and Michigan to pair with Purdue or, just letting the Michigan series lapse all together (which I think Michigan’s athletic director wouldn’t mind at all).
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…this morning that Notre Dame will move its sports other than football and HOCKEY from the Big East to the ACC.
Basketball is going to the ACC. Hockey is going to the eastern conference. Football is staying independent -ish.
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Hook ’em
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RTR
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As big as ND move RT @SIPeteThamel ACC also announces that exit fee will be $50 million. That also assures no one can poach Miami, VT or FSU 34 minutes ago
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I’d go a step farther and to say that’s the biggest implication of the move (by far). As pointed out earlier, ND has put together a couple schedules now with 4 ACC games; guaranteeing 5 isn’t going to change the money dynamics or anything like that for ND or the ACC.
The biggest effects here are 1) the ACC is basically unpoachable by the Big 12, and 2) the basketball move’s residual impact on the Big East (whether it will stay together or splinter).
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Yep. The ACC capitulated to Notre Dame’s terms and became nearly unpoachable with the terms of the exit fee.
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Re-add
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WV AD Oliver Luck says money gap of $20 to $16 not enough to get schools to move.
http://wvgazette.com/Sports/201209110273
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This, combined with the TV move last week, probably puts WVU on a Big 12 island for some time to come, unless Louisville can find a partner to the conference’s liking (Brigham Young?).
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Reaction from my daughter at ND, “Meh, as long as it’s not football.”
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Is an 18-game men’s and women’s basketball schedule possible with a 15-member conference?
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I think the Big East is doing that this year.
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My idea would be to have 3 5-team divisions. Play each division team twice and everyone else once.
North – ND, BC, Cuse, Pitt, Maryland
Central – UVa, VaTech, UNC, Duke, NCSt
South – Wake, Clemson, GaTech, FSU, Miami
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Jeff,
The NC 4 would all stay together. Swap WF and VT.
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I guess I get it. I’ve never been a fan of partial memberships, as I think that inequity between members helped doom the Big East. But I would admit that it does help the ACC. And even the quasi-football membership helps the ACC. Notre Dame may not officially count in football standings, but playing enough ACC games helps the Strength of Schedule and the perception of the conference. I don’t love the move, but I get it.
The exit should be also serve as a death knell to defections/realignment.
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Chip’s comments and Big 12 reaction:
http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1408339
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Maybe the ACC goes to 3 non-football divisions with the addition of Notre Dame. That gets you an 18 game basketball schedule: Home and homes within the division (8), homes with division #2 (5), aways with division #3 (5).
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Tough to divide geographically, though. The four N.C. schools will want to stay together, the four southernmost schools probably would comprise a separate unit, and you have to keep Virginia Tech and UVa together for their home-and-home.
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I suggest the following ACC 3 division lineup:
Big East Division: Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt, BC, and Miami.
Carolina Divion: UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, and Clemson.
Everybody Else Division: Maryland, Virginia, VA Tech, GA Tech, and Florida State.
It would also be a lot easier to remember than the Atlantic/Legends and the Coastal/Leaders.
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I like the geography of that but damn, the Carolina division is tough in basketball. At least Clemson cares a lot more about football because that basketball team would have 8 really tough games each year before they play anyone outside their division.
I suppose the BE division is pretty brutal, as well.
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Looks workable. Decent balance.
Especially now that FSU is a basketball school. 🙂
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I agree the Atlantic and Costal is dumb
I like your divisions but then the names should all reference NC and SC
Don’t Care = ND, SU, Pitt, BC, and the U
Love N/S C = UNC, Clemson, NC State, Duke, and Wake Forest
Hate N/S C = MD, UVA, VPI, GT, and FSU
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Big East Division: Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt, BC, and Miami.
Carolina Divion: UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, and Clemson.
Everybody Else Division: Maryland, Virginia, VA Tech, GA Tech, and Florida State
Swap Maryland and Miami for these de facto men’s and women’s hoop divisions:
“A”: Boston College, Maryland, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
“B”: Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest
“C”: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Also, has it been noted that with Notre Dame joining, the ACC has solved its potential baseball scheduling problem? Baseball uses the same Atlantic/Coastal format as football, and since Syracuse doesn’t field a baseball team, Notre Dame can take SU’s place in the Atlantic.
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a la C-USA’s early RED , WHITE & BLUE Divisions!
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Is that political?
Blue = Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boton College, Miami, Notre Dame
White = Carolina schools
Red = Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Virginia
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Pingback: Reaction to the ND-ACC Move | ATLANTIC COAST CONFIDENTIAL
Amazing the radical shift/growth in the ACC in the past 20 years. I’m sure some of the old-timers hate it. But progress is what progress it.
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Not that I expect it to happen, but it would be kind of funny if ND has a 5-0 record in the ACC but of course isn’t playing in a champtionship game.
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Given the way the schedules are balanced, there’ll probably be 3 gimmes out of the 5 games (since they plan to play every team over 3 year cycles roughly).
Just look at this year, they should go 4-0 against the ACC this year. Assuming that FSU, Miami, Va Tech, Clemson games are distributed relatively evenly over a 6 year cycle, they’re going to play around 1-2 games where they’re underdogs on that 5 game schedule.
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…yet
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The key is ND is not joining the ACC football TV contract. I believe that ND will live up to its commitment to play 5 ACC games per year if 3 of them are in South Bend and they are all scheduled in October and November. That still gives the ACC TV deal 2 ND games a year to broadcast while keeping the 7 game ND home schedule for ND to sell. Not sure what kind of a bump the ACC can get from ND basketball and 2 football games.
The increase to $50M for the exit fee will keep FSU, MD, Clemson or anyone else from leaving. As long as ND has this deal ND will NEVER join the ACC as a full memeber for football, so there will not be a #16 added to the ACC.
Since ND does not play Big East Football, I expect they will be able to make a deal to exit as early as July 2013 with a payment along the Pittsburg/Syracuse level rather than WVU level.
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@ Frank,
In all the commotion what is being lost is how the ACC did this
Added Syracuse and Pittsburgh – with no leaks
Added Notre Dame – with no leaks
If they are becoming a predator – they are a silent assassin!
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Good point. Didn’t the Pitt/Cuse news break at about the same time last year? Maybe its a timing thing by planning the hot stuff for when the media focus on camps and the start of the season.
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I was thinking the same thing.
Although there had been some increased chatter the last couple of days. The Dude was talking about it yesterday with the ACC giving up the farm, but you never know whether his stuff is nonsense or if somebody is telling him something.
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Interesting side note from the Notre Dame/ACC press conference. They stated 80% of the ACC/ESPN television contract is for football, this in a conference that is arguably the best in the country for basketball. We’ve always known football is driving the bus, but it is interesting to see it spelled out.
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It also makes it easy to figure out ND’s share of league revenue.
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I wonder if ND will be eligible for any of the ACC’s bowl bids? Has this been discussed yet in any of the press releases and/or articles? I believe that they were eligible for the Big East’s bowls, weren’t they? If somehow the ACC was dumb enough to agree to that, then I could see some extremely ill feelings toward ND among the ACC the first time ND takes a bowl bid away from a full time member.
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I believe they get access to the ACC’s bowl bids.
The ND access to BE bowls has shrunk (to 1 every 4 years).
As for ACC ill feelings, they’d have to keep in mind that whatever bowl lineup they get next time would be as attractive as it is in part because they can promise the bowls ND. So the stupid and ignorant would have ill feelings about ND taking 1 of “their” spots, but one of those spots wouldn’t have been theirs anyway if ND hadn’t signed up!
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Just wait until ND swipes a Chick-fil-a or Citrus Bowl bid away from a team like UNC or Clemson. I don’t see the likes of UNC or Clemson taking too kindly to that happening.
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Of course, without ND in the pool, there’s probably not a CapOne/Outback/Gator Bowl to “swipe”.
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Richard – I’m not sure I’m following you. The ACC doesn’t have tie-ins with the CapOne, Outback, or Gator Bowls. So the other ACC teams aren’t getting in those bowls regardless of whether or not ND is in the ACC.
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However, the ACC may very well get one of those bowls added to their bowl lineup with ND in their pool which they wouldn’t have if ND wasn’t in the pool. Which was my point. The ACC currently doesn’t have a “Citrus Bowl” spot either.
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Yeah you’re right, but it is kind of hard for me to keep the lineage of the Cap One & Russell Athletics Bowls separate. The Russell Athletics is played at the Citrus Bowl. While it was previously called the Champs Sports Bowl, it was also once called the Tangerine Bowl, as was the Cap One Bowl. While the Cap One Bowl was previously the Florida Citrus Bowl that everyone remembers, they are both owned by Florida Citrus Sports.
The Russell Athletic Bowl currently gets the #3 ACC school along with #2 Big East team.
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Yes, this was a primary reason for ND to join. ‘”This approach allows us to help promote ACC football while maintaining our traditional rivalries and a national schedule,” said Swarbrick, who added that Notre Dame will be a part of the ACC’s non-BCS bowl package.’
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Bamatab – my understanding from listening to ESPN Radio a couple of hours ago, is that Notre Dame will participate in and share revenue for the lower-tier ACC bowls, but ND doesn’t participate in the BCS bowls, and if ND goes to a BCS bowl, the ACC doesn’t get a cut.
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Alan – Yeah, I just found where Yahoo is saying that ND will have access to all of the non-BCS bowls: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/notre-dame-acc-sports-football-163042269–ncaaf.html
I can definitely see this causing ill feelings within the ACC when ND starts taking Chick-fil-a & Citrus (I think it is now Russell Athletics) Bowl bids away from full time ACC members. And what happens in 2 years when the BCS Bowls are turned into new playoff system bowls? I guess ND would still get access to all of the non-playoff system bowls.
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I am sure that 1) they will factor ND into the number of bowls they contract with so that they have enough bowls going forward to slot all 6 win teams plus ND and no one gets left out; 2) adding ND to mix will allow the ACC to improve there bowl tie ins the next time they are negotiated; 3) there will have to be stipulations on how often any one bowl in the mix can choose ND (i.e., once every 4 years) so that ND does not get selected by the Chick-fil-a bowl every year
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Assuming ACC is a true home and home deal (3/2 wouldn’t stun me though, neither would 2/2/1 w/ the 1 at Jerry Dome, Chicago, etc.), and that they keep the Navy, Stanford/USC and 2 B1G games per year, I think it’s interesting that ND seems to basically be moving to a 6 home, 6 away type schedule (maybe more like 6 home, 5 away, 1 neutral, but at this point they’ll never get 8 and probably rarely get 7 home games).
It seems to me that the Irish are making a play for TV money (since most of these home games will be clear money-makers) over gate (i.e. paying bodybags to show up). It’ll be interesting to see if other schools start following suit. If one of the biggest brands in CFB can throw down behind the “fewer bodybags, more meaningful games instead” philosophy, it seems like others could potentially go down this road too.
I would GUESS that part of this is that the Irish control all of their TV revenue (i.e. they aren’t part of a league that takes what they earn and gives it away to 12 or so other members), so the financial incentives are more aligned. But IMO it’s in general a supporting indicator of the idea that the future is in meaningful games rather than bodybag gate-fillers. What do you guys think?
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The point though is that the ACC has 4 legit football schools and then 10 others. They’re going to play multiple games against weak ACC teams for every game they play against FSU, Miami, Va Tech, or Clemson.
They might face a max of 2 ranked ACC teams every year out of those 5 games…
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You do make interesting points though about how the future is likely to be in more meaningful games, whether by finances (the gimme games will cost $1M+ easily soon) or the need to create better/more valuable TV content (i.e. moving to 9 conference games).
I’d expect the Big Ten to be at 9 conference games by the next TV deal. It makes too much sense not to happen.
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I don’t think guarantee game checks are going to go up; if anything, I expect them to go down once more big name schools schedule more games against each other and fewer against the bodybags. Simple supply and demand suggests that if the number of buyers declines, and the number of sellers is about the same, the price will drop.
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Matthew,
Until TV money really explodes, many big schools can’t afford that approach. They make $6-8M in game day revenue for home games regardless of the opponent. They need to get paid a lot by somebody to justify giving up that 7th home game, especially since TV revenue is equally distributed. ND doesn’t have any bottom dwellers diluting their TV earnings, so maybe they can afford it. I could also see ND scheduling some 2/1 series to fill out their schedule.
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Notre Dame’s upcoming TV contract negotiations should be very telling. Assuming they lock themselves into, say, 10 of their 12 games on a home and home basis (5 ACC, 2 P12, 2 B1G, Navy), they’re going to get TV money that reasonably approximates the value of those games, which are all going to be big TV properties (even the lesser opponents generally aren’t going to be awful enough to offset it being Notre Dame), and they’re probably average around 1-2 home blockbluster games a year (USC is every other year, Michigan will be on and off, someone from the rest will sometimes be great).
If TV money really is going to be a big deal going forward, there’s no reason to think Notre Dame should be getting less than $25M in year one and then bumping up going forward, which is materially greater than most AQ teams get (which makes sense, since there are no league bottom-feeders to artificially support). If TV money truly matters, 6-7 games a year with Notre Dame hosting a generally high level opposition should average at least $4M a game, and very possibly more.
Honestly, I suspect that 6-7 games a year may even be worth $30M+ from day one. If not, then there’s no incentive at all to shy away from bodybag games, since the $$$ figures would support more easy home games instead of meaningful home and homes.
PS does anyone have a link where it shows the $6-8M per game in gate?
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Matthew,
OSU has over 100,000 seats and charges $70 per ticket. That’s over $7M, not including the extra donations for season tickets, luxury boxes, etc or the concessions, parking, and merchandise sales. Other major schools have to be on par with that. ND has a smaller stadium and I don’t know their ticket prices or donations, so i don’t know where they are on the spectrum.
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IIRC, face value on all tix at NDS is $70, and there are around 80,795, so home gates will be approximately $5.6 million. Practically no luxury boxes, and I am pretty sure the in stadium concessions are all charity. The donations to get into the ticket lottery vary by age, so I’d prefer not to speculate.
I know the old AD wanted 7-4-1, but that has proven to be quite impractical in the current environment, so I think ND will remain with about six home games for the foreseeable future.
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Focusing on a tertiary point, what does this do to the Champions Bowl? Supposedly the contract between the Big 12 and SEC stipulated that the Big 12 needed to expand before the game began, and the presumption seemed to be major additions like FSU/Clemson/ND/VTech, etc.
But since ND and the rest of the ACC is now off the table, that seriously diminishes the Big 12’s chances of adding attractive schools, and any expansion will likely come from Louisville-type schools.
Does the SEC demand to go back to the drawing board? Were TV revenue negotiations based on backroom discussions of conference additions?
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Supposedly the contract between the Big 12 and SEC stipulated that the Big 12 needed to expand before the game began, and the presumption seemed to be major additions like FSU/Clemson/ND/VTech, etc.
I believe that was the invention of WV fans to further troll the ACC.
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Also, Deloss Dodds and the rest of the Big 12 have to feeling a bit humiliated today with this news. They publicly courted ND for several months, with Dodds saying they were his top choice for Big 12 expansion.
Swofford got the last laugh.
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Deloss Dodds was the only person from the Big XII to court ND. Nobody else was going to agree to anything that could set a precedent for Texas to ever go indy in football while keeping their non-football sports in the conference.
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Or at least he was the only one to ever discuss it publicly.
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According to Brett Mcmurphy (@McMurphyCBS) The ACC won’t expand to 16 in hoops.
According to Kirk Bohls (@KBohls) he was told the ACC was saving the last two spots for ND and Texas.
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More McMurphy:
Notre Dame also could increase ACC’s media rights from $17M per school to b/w $18-$19M per school, sources told ESPN.com
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They’re not bringing football, so it’s kind of baffling that there’d be any consideration of an increase in the TV contract. They’ve already scheduled a bunch of years with 3-4 ACC opponents, so permanently bumping that up to 5 while adding no new inventory shouldn’t be worth a real boost to the contract for the rest of the ACC.
That’s especially true given that ND’s sources said that this was essentially a revenue neutral move for them.
Most likely, the ACC will get a couple million to give to ND for its basketball and non-revenue sports…
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My theory why ESPN would pay: they own pieces of the Big 5 and are very happy with the new status quo, which ND to the ACC finalizes. The move undermines the Big East bargaining position a little, and now ESPN will watch them take their football, which ESPN doesn’t have shelf space for, to NBC Sports channel.
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That would be $32-$47 million for basketball, their Olympic sports and 2.5 games (some of which they already play the ACC in). If that 80% fb figure is correct, the rest of the contract is only worth $47.6 million a year for the entire conference. It will be interesting to see what the NBC ND football deal is.
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At least $30-35M a year for 6-7 football games.
I wouldn’t be surprised by $50M/year.
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how do you get 6-7 football games; ACC will only own the rights when ND plays @ ACC schools. guessing they 2 home/2 away/1neutral – so you are talking about only 2 ND football games added to ACC inventory each year – hardly worth $30MM-$35MM a year
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I believe Richard was talking about what he expects ND to get.
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I’m talking about ND’s TV contract, not the ACC’s.
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Deloss Dodds is the de facto commissioner of the Big 12. It is preposterous to me that he would discuss realignment publicly if it had not been previously vetted by the Big 12.
The Big 12 waited on the Louisville/BYU contingent because it desperately held out hope for Notre Dame and the ACC schools. They are the big loser with today’s announcement.
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Dodds is probably the most trustworthy source of info given that he doesn’t really have an incentive to hide his hand.
kbohls @kbohls
Texas AD DeLoss Dodds told me two years ago ACC was saving last two spots for UT, Notre Dame. Guessing Irish picked ACC for easier BCS path.
There is absolutely no reason why this isn’t the ACC’s endgame. Get ND and UT both as full members into the ACC. For now they’ll take ND as a partial member, but this is a long game. Who knows what happens in 20 years or 40 years or 60 years…
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How could Dodds have told him that 2 years ago, when the ACC didnt get to 14 until last year? I mean, obviously the Pitt/Cuse thing didnt happen overnight, but it would seem a bit presumptuous, with the chaos that was going on at the time when it looksed like the Big XII would die (the first time) and there was speculation of just about anyone and everyone out side of the SEC/B1G/PAC was up for grabs? Im not insinuating it didnt happen, just, skeptical I guess.
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Because ND and Texas were discussing their options together 2 years ago, before Texas committed to the Big 12 in the long run.
There were rumors then of a ND+Texas combo going to the ACC with neither a full football member.
The ACC moved first though to stem the rumors of Pitt going to the Big 12 by snatching them up, but that doesn’t negate the fact that ND and Texas did jointly discuss their options even if it didn’t come to fruition then.
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Deloss Dodds is the de facto commissioner of the Big 12.
Which is why we now see so many high school sporting events and Texas Tech games on the LHN and Dan Beebe is still running the conference…
With equal revenue distributions and a GOR Texas doesn’t can’t bully the other schools like they once did and the fact no other major conference will take the LHN means they need the Big XII as much as Big XII needs them.
Dodds has had delusions of grandeur vis-a-vis Notre Dame. I’m sure the Big XII discussed the issue but that doesn’t mean they publicly courted them.
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http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaab–notre-dame-protects-treasure-football-schedule-in-move-to-acc.html
Sources tell Wetzel biggest factor for ND was scheduling.
Notre Dame currently must schedule all of its 12 games per year. This drops to seven games with the ACC scheduling the other five. ACC teams will likely be featured during the more challenging dates later in the season. It’s a far easier task.
“People don’t realize how difficult it is,” the source said. “The outlook was very challenging. If the Big Ten does move to a nine-game league schedule down the line, and it could be 10 years from now, can we still count on getting Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan all in a row? And late October and November kept growing tougher.”
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I will add that if things are this bad for Notre Dame, I can’t imagine how tough they will be for BYU and Army in a few years (Navy is moving to the Big East for football).
I know the LDS leadership has ultimate authority of BYU’s decisions and they like independence, but are they really going to be ok with BYU only playing 1 or 2 home games in the second half of the season every year?
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Idaho and NMSU will play where ever, when ever…
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Notre Dame could’ve gotten the Poinsettia Bowl bid when Idaho & NMSU weren’t bowl eligible. Very short sighted.
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Idaho is already there only home game in the final seven weeks of the season this year. Plus, who knows how much longer they can remain at the FBS level (Idaho’s president has admitted they can’t remain an independent for more than 2 years).
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I think BYU would jump at the Big 12 in a heartbeat. Until that’s on the table, better to deal w/ independence issues than be stuck in MWC or Big East.
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Did you miss the last two years? If the church leadership wanted BYU in, TCU or WVU would have been #10.
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It’s possible. With Notre Dame (and the rest of the ACC) apparently off the table, I think BYU is the most valuable program remaining that’s not affiliated with one of the Big 5 conferences. I just don’t know whether the Big 12 is ready to add any team not named Notre Dame. It depends on revenue. There will be fallout from the Big East on down, but BYU probably stays independent through the first cycle of the new playoff.
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@frug – One difference is that BYU doesn’t have the scheduling standards that Notre Dame has/needs. BYU can afford to be playing MWC/non-power schools in November in a way that Notre Dame wouldn’t be able to tolerate. Dan Wetzel made this argument today and, in a rare instance, I agree with him (along with his other points about the Big East and Big Ten):
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaaf–notre-dame-s-move-to-acc-didn-t-make-losers-out-of-big-east–big-ten-and-byu.html;_ylt=AkL7Tyr9VeGU5DQwlLcZWSELcykA;_ylu=X3oDMTFoZnA0Y2I3BG1pdANCbG9nIEluZGV4IGJ5IEF1dGhvcgRwb3MDMQRzZWMDTWVkaWFCbG9nSW5kZXg-;_ylg=X3oDMTFrODdzYXZuBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANhdXRob3IEcHQDc2VjdGlvbnM-;_ylv=3
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Yes, BYU has lower standards, but they are also a less leverage.
I agree that ND’s decision doesn’t have any impact on BYU, but it could serve as a predictor of the scheduling difficulties they may face.
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BYU has been facing that difficulty. ND was having trouble getting any names but USC and Stanford in October and November. The B1G, Big 12 and SEC wouldn’t play them then. Their AD was talking about not having a bowl connection this year. I imagine that was a major factor. They can take the ACC’s bowls (other than Orange) now.
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Swarbick said it evolved as they spent time in the BCS meetings.
I guess that means ND and the ACC are going to be very tightly aligned on revenue distribution and the selection committee. The BCS era poll rankings leave both Notre Dame and the ACC behind if they are a significant part of the revenue distribution.
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RLR
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After some thought, the crux of this matter seems to be whether ND actually plays those 5 games a year, who gets to pick the opponents, and where the games are played. If ND can play BC, Pitt, Miami, Syracuse, etc every year, then they basically aren’t giving up much. If they have to play a more full rotation (eg Duke, UNC, Wake Forest), then that’s not very great. ND has about 5 traditional rivals in the new ACC (Pitt, Syr, BC, Miami, GT (sorta)) and one traditional power (FSU). I can’t see going to western Virginia or South Carolina as a great way to reach Catholic fans.
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@M – What I’ve seen is that ND would rotate through the entire ACC every 3 years. They’ll probably balance out where ND is playing one of the powers (FSU/Miami/VT), one of their traditional rivals (Pitt/BC) and one of the rest every year. It actually doesn’t change the BC arrangement very much (as that has been 4 years on/2 years off for awhile). The biggest change would be to Pitt, who ND has taken very few series breaks from over the past couple of decades.
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M,
ND has recently played against Pitt, Syracuse, WF, UNC, Duke, MD, GT, BC and FSU. Miami is on future schedules. ND is fine with playing UVA, too, I’m sure. VT, NCSU and Clemson are the schools that are least like them (big, public, not elite) and that they don’t have much history with, but 2 of them are big football names so ND will be OK with that I think. That leaves NCSU as the least interesting school for them, but they won’t worry about it.
What ND gains is getting 5 games scheduled for them every year in October and November. Add that to USC and Stanford, and that’s 7 games late in the year taken care of. They can add Army or BYU for an 8th, and then fit 2-3 B10 teams in September along with some else.
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Since I’m late to the party, I’ll summarize what I’ve seen so far and my opinions on it.
1. ND to the ACC non-FB isn’t a huge surprise in and of itself, but the ACC getting 5 games is. I personally thought they might get 4 if this happened. It sounds like the ACC is in charge of scheduling the 5, too, so ND can’t just cherrypick their favorites. In return, ND gets the games in October and November which helps them enormously.
My guess at future ND schedules:
Navy, USC, Stanford and Purdue stay locked in as is
Play 5 ACC teams (all home and homes) in October and November
Play MSU almost annually
Play MI half the time and another major program the other half (UT, OU, etc)
Play BYU, AF and Army a lot
However, ESPN says this:
“Notre Dame expects to continue to play USC, Stanford and Navy, but its traditional games against Big Ten opponents Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue are in jeopardy, a source told Schad.”
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8369070/notre-dame-sports-football-hockey-acc
2. ND getting access to all the non-BCS bowls is interesting. It should help the ACC get slightly more money and/or some better bowls, but it won’t help much if ND doesn’t start to win more. It helps ND a ton to get regular bowl access, though.
Here’s how ESPN describes ND’s access:
“Under the new agreement, Notre Dame could step over an ACC team and take its place in one of the non-BCS bowls if its record is better than, equal to or within one win of the ACC team or ranked higher in the BCS standings.”
There’s no mention of any frequency clauses, which might cause some friction if the bowls pick ND every chance they get (and they will). They’re actually being treated just like an ACC team with that phrasing.
3. The increase in exit fees is important. While not as good as a GOR, it looks like the ACC is now stable. This means major realignment is done for quite a while. ND will join the ACC if anyone, so everybody else can give up on them. That means there is no expansion potential for the B10. The SEC and B12 can’t poach ACC teams either, so they seem stuck unless the B12 goes BE/MWC/BYU. The little guys will continue to shift some, but no more major schools will move.
The real question becomes what if ND joins the ACC in football in 10-50 years? Who becomes #16?
4. What does this do to the Orange Bowl? They had talked about adding ND among others to play the ACC. Does the rematch potential change their plans at all?
5. How much does the ACC gain financially from this? It sounds like ESPN will do a “look in” based on this, so the ACC should get closer to the top leagues.
6. The ACC won’t expand to 16 according to ESPN, so they need to schedule with 15 teams. Three pods of 5 for scheduling seem the most likely approach if they want 18 games. I liked Alan’s pods above (A = Duke, UNC, NCSU, WF and Clemson; B = BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, Miami; C = FSU, GT, MD, UVA, VT) as well as anything else I’ve seen.
7. The BE had their customary kneejerk reaction of citing their exit fee and 27 month notice. I’d hoped the new commissioner would be above that. The money is no object to ND and why would you try to keep a school that wants to leave? Offer them $10M to leave in 2013 and be done with it.
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Actually, I thought the bb schools had a lower exit fee than the fb schools. I thought theirs was $2.5 million.
In any event SU and Pitt got out 1 year early for $7.5 instead of $5.0. Won’t be much of a penalty for ND.
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The BE had their customary kneejerk reaction of citing their exit fee and 27 month notice. I’d hoped the new commissioner would be above that. The money is no object to ND and why would you try to keep a school that wants to leave? Offer them $10M to leave in 2013 and be done with it.
They had to do that to maximize the amount of money they could get from the Irish on top of the $5 million exit penalty.
The $10 million for a 2013 exit is reasonable but until then they need to hold some leverage for negotiations.
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If a school’s leadership is really convinced another league suits the school better for the next 50 years or more, the school can still move. But the higher ACC exit fee certainly prevents a school from having its head turned by the first pretty TV contract another league gets.
Translation: Florida State might still want to jump if the SEC calls, but the Big 12 can forget it.
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FSU and Maryland, at least, voted no on the increased exit fee according to the chairman of the FSU board.
http://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1408459
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I’m kind of amused that it took that long for that part of the story to come out, and I’m not surprised either.
Maryland always seemed like an eventual Big Ten fit, and FSU had its alternative options to consider in the future.
A $50M exit fee makes those possibilities all the more remote regardless of what happens in the future.
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Hopefully this will put to rest the garbage that the exit penalties will keep the ACC together.
I have never believe that FSU would leave for the Big XII, but I certainly don’t think toothless exit penalties will do anything to stop them if they are determined.
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frug,
I don’t know why you think they’re toothless. The BE has gotten their full exit fees plus some. The B12 gave discounts (around 50%?). Even if the ACC gave a 50% discount, $25M is a lot for a school to come up with if they are leaving for financial reasons like FSU mentioned. It would be up to the new conference to loan them the money or pay part of the bill, and not everyone wants to do that. MD certainly can’t afford tens of millions in exit fees. Would the B10 help them pay it?
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Alright, I guess toothless was wrong term. Ineffective is probably more proper.
The fact is, after the 2010 realignment the Big XII was bragging that they had “historic” exit penalties that would protect, only to have A&M and Mizzou both bolt just a months later.
With the way revenue is going up in college sports exit penalties are just not any sort of real protection.
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Interesting. Still, I can’t see either one leaving now.
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Interesting that the ACC would debase themselves like this.
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metatron,
Why not? They basically get a half-membership in football from ND now and essentially a guarantee that ND will join the ACC or nobody in football. They get better ratings, a bump in their TV deal, better bowls and/or bowl payouts and more media coverage in football.
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That’s what the Big East thought too, and look how that turned out for them.
The ACC got a load of promises, but realistically, what has changed? They’re essentially scheduling tougher OOC opponents. The basketball hasn’t really grown either, so that’s a push.
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if Miami, Va Tech, BC, Pitt, and Syracuse were still in the Big East, who is to say that ND would not be agreeing to a similar deal with the Big East today?
In the end, it is a win-win. ACC gets a big chunk of ND. ND gets a big chunk of ACC.
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metatron,
“That’s what the Big East thought too, and look how that turned out for them.”
Has anyone ever seen this supposed promise to play 3 BE teams annually in writing? I haven’t seen it anywhere official. That said, the BE got better bowls because ND was around and ND may have added some hoops value in their good years. Certainly the women did by beating UConn.
The current and future BE is not what ND joined. Miami, VT, BC, Pitt and Syracuse are gone, replaced with non-AQs from the south and west. If the BE was still a power football conference, ND probably would have stuck with them. Instead, the BE degraded to the point that ND needed to look elsewhere for decent bowl access and OOC games.
“The ACC got a load of promises, but realistically, what has changed?”
A lot. They have 5 football games annually with ND in writing. They have ESPN looking into bumping up their TV deal so they get closer to the recent B12 and P12 deals. They have another private school with elite academics that expands their footprint and drives TV ratings. They have more leverage for future bowl negotiations.
“They’re essentially scheduling tougher OOC opponents.”
That’s part of it. They get more media coverage for it than anything else.
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It’s being called ‘football independence’ for Notre Dame but the structure is actually half-membership in the ACC for football. That’s a big shift for ND.
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Delany’s statement;
“Today’s announcement by the ACC that Notre Dame will join the conference to compete in all sponsored sports with the exception of football was not a surprise. Both the Big 12 and the ACC have openly expressed an interest in adding Notre Dame to their conference under such a condition.
“The announcement by the ACC is further indication that the tectonic plates underlying conference affiliation are still warm. As always, we will continue to monitor the landscape.
“We are very pleased with both our current conference membership and our conference structure.”
(Emphasis mine)
Found the bold portion interesting.
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Who could the Big Ten realistically invite at this point?
Nobody, that’s who.
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Kansas and Rutgers are both AAU. But I doubt the Big Ten would want either one. After that there really isn’t anyone that would even theoretically work.
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Cal, UCLA, Stanford and USC
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How about a list that would meet standards AND would be realistic.
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Kansas
Iowa State
Rutgers
Tulane
Rice
or, much less likely
Texas
Missouri
Vanderbilt
in other words, there are no realistic options that make any sense.
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Go big or go home.
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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/football/ncaa/09/12/notre-dame-acc/index.html
“In any short-term way there’s no financial benefit,” the official said. “If we wanted to do something for money we would have joined the Big Ten. What it’s really about is postseason play.”
It’s all about the bowl games according to ND.
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Makes a lot of sense. Notre Dame’s current bowl deal sucks. It will be much, much better now. And the real steal they got in this was being treated like a full ACC-member in the bowl selection process, instead of a partial Big East member. That’s likely worth playing a couple extra ACC teams per year.
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Pitt and BC are common opponents. Miami and GT were every year opponents when all 3 were indies. They like an occassional Duke or Wake Forest or Syracuse. It works well for them from a scheduling standpoint. And they have NO bowl this year. Swarbick was complaining about it. Scheduling will probably get to be more of a problem in the future w/o this deal.
In the short run, the ACC schools will get the shaft. In the long run, maybe Notre Dame brings them better bowl deals to compensate for always trumping them.
I’m not sure Delany isn’t right. If anyone in the ACC is still thinking about moving, they will move quickly. Its less likely than it was yesterday, but I don’t think things cool down until the playoff revenue distribution has been formally decided and schools have had time to digest it.
One thing it does do is make ND an ACC ally in any battles on revenue distribution and selection rules.
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Just to shake things up, here’s some non-ND news:
PSU lost another WR. Shawney Kersey was PSU’s most experienced returning WR and he had 6 catches for 44 yards so far this year. He quit for “personal reasons.” He’s still enrolled in school, like the 2 players that quit the team in August.
___
Also, WI’s fired OL coach spoke out in radio about it:
http://www.omaha.com/article/20120911/BIGRED/709119837/1707
“I really thought we were making good progress. In light of what has transpired, I still believe what I was teaching is the right thing to do. Obviously, it didn’t fit into what they wanted at Wisconsin.”
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Surprised by the move even though it makes some sense. I didn’t think Notre Dame would be willing to go above 4 guaranteed games.
I think the Big Ten games are in a lot more trouble than most here. Going forward, this will probably have to alter Notre Dame’s scheduling philosophy. They’ve been going for 7-4-1 (and I believe NBC gets the rights to the neutral site game). With 5 ACC games (likely all home and home, but maybe there is one neutral site game in there), it’s going to be next to impossible to maintain that. I’m guessing they’ll settle for 7 home games a year, which means only 1 road game left (2 home and home teams).
So that probably leaves home and homes annually with 5 ACC schools (on a rotating basis), USC, Stanford, and Navy. That’s 8 games right there with 4 of them on the road. That only leaves 1 road game left a year. My guess is that over the short run, some the Big Ten series are delayed entirely. Over the long run, Notre Dame will do a 4 year rotation with Purdue/Michigan as home/home for 2 years and Michigan State/open game the other game. If they are still going to have room for a team like Texas or any other random team they want to play on occasion and want 7 games, they pretty much have to do it like this.
So to sum up, my guess is:
1-5. 5 ACC schools a year (rotating fully unless Notre Dame gets extra games against traditional teams as part of the contract).
6. USC
7. Stanford
8. Navy
9. Michigan/Michigan State (one of these will be home and home and then there will be a 2 year gap while the other plays Notre Dame).
10. Purdue/Random big name team (Purdue gets a home and home the same year as Michigan. In the other 2 years, Notre Dame schedules one big series).
11-12. 2 one and dones with whomever Notre Dame can get.
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New Notre Dame/ACC post is up: http://bit.ly/QGIkFd
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