Frank the Tank’s Slant Ballot – Week 6
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | — |
| 2 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | — |
| 3 | Oregon Ducks |  1 |
| 4 | Boise St. Broncos |  -1 |
| 5 | TCU Horned Frogs | — |
| 6 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1 |
| 7 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -1 |
| 8 | Arizona Wildcats | 3 |
| 9 | Utah Utes | 5 |
| 10 | Michigan St. Spartans | 12 |
| 11 | Auburn Tigers | 1 |
| 12 | LSU Tigers | 1 |
| 13 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 2 |
| 14 | Miami Hurricanes | 4 |
| 15 | Florida Gators | -5 |
| 16 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 1 |
| 17 | Michigan Wolverines | -1 |
| 18 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 2 |
| 19 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 5 |
| 20 | Stanford Cardinal | -12 |
| 21 | Wisconsin Badgers | -12 |
| 22 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | — |
| 23 | Florida St. Seminoles | — |
| 24 | Northwestern Wildcats | — |
| 25 | Missouri Tigers | — |
| Dropouts: USC Trojans, N.C. State Wolfpack, Penn St. Nittany Lions, Texas Longhorns | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
First off, the Frank the Tank empire is expanding. In addition to the already-existing Twitter feed @frankthetank111, I’ve created a new Facebook page for the site, so you can “Like” (or “Dislike” on the Wall) the blog to your heart’s content and maybe figure out what some of the commenters here look like.
As for this week’s BlogPoll ballot, I had been holding off on moving Oregon up to #3, but I couldn’t any longer after that dominant performance against Stanford. Granted, I’m still skeptical of how the eye-popping offensive numbers would look against opponents with top tier defenses. Note that plenty of people thought that Oregon was going to score at will on Ohio State in last year’s Rose Bowl, but the Buckeyes pretty much hammered the Ducks.
It appears that I’m destined to go 1-2 in my picks each week, which is fairly frustrating with a ridiculous number of games having the Vegas outcome determined by garbage points in the last couple of minutes (i.e. Virginia Tech-NC State last week, Illinois-NIU a few weeks ago). This is why it’s a good thing that I don’t live within driving distance of a sports book. Anyway, onto this week’s parlay picks (with home teams in CAPS and odds from Bodog via Yahoo!):
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
- PENN STATE (-8) over Illinois – Direct quote from Ron Zook in today’s Chicago Tribune: “To me, it is exciting the fact we are going somewhere we have never won before. All that does is make the percentages that much better that you’re going to win.” As mentioned above, I’m not exactly a gambling savant, but I have a nagging feeling that’s not exactly how bookmakers determine the odds.
- Arkansas (-6) over Texas A&M (neutral site at Jerry World) – I haven’t spent that much time in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but what time I have spent there indicates that the Rangers-Rays AL Division Series overlapping with the Arkansas-A&M game across the street for sure on Saturday and possibly the Cowboys-Titans game on Sunday will result in a Traffic Armageddon not seen since the combination of senior citizen and Pennsylvania drivers at Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa.
- UCLA Bruins (+7.5) over CALIFORNIA – Am I missing something with this line? Way too wide for my tastes for similarly performing teams.
Frank the Tank’s College Football Parlay Record
Last Week: 1-2
Illini Games for the Season: 2-1
Overall Season: 5-9-1
NFL FOOTBALL
- Packers (-2.5) over REDSKINS – Washington isn’t half bad, but let’s not get too carried away here.
- BEARS (+1) over Panthers – If the Bears were playing ANYONE other than Carolina or Buffalo this week, the Todd Collins era would be an awful shellacking. As it is, this was the right week for Jay Cutler to have a concussion. In the meantime, the TV networks will have to update its “The Bears have had 697 starting quarterbacks since Brett Favre first started with the Packers” graphic for the next Chicago-Green Bay game.
- Titans (+7) over COWBOYS – This feels like the Bears-Cowboys game in week 2 – way too much love from the bookmakers on Dallas here.
Frank the Tank’s NFL Football Parlay Record
Last Week: 1-2
Bears Games for the Season: 1-3
Overall Season: 5-7
As always, feel free to use this post as an open thread for the weekend’s games and non-expansion college sports news. If you want to talk about conference realignment in general, please continue the discussion on yesterday’s Through the Wire post. Have a great weekend!
(Follow Frank the Tank’s Slant on Twitter @frankthetank111 and Facebook)
FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT 
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Frank – we share a the PSU/Arkansas picks. I’ve got MSU, Georgia and Alabama as well. Check out my blog and let me know what you think: http://bit.ly/bawwN5
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I think saying Bolden “failed” at ‘Bama and Iowa is a bit harsh. True Bolden threw a pick (or maybe two, can’t remember) at ‘Bama but if memory serves he didn’t get much help from anyone else, no running game and dropped passes. For a freshman I think he’s handled the job admirably and is growing into it.
I do think PSU as a team is searching for identity and could finish this season 8-4 or 4-8. I’m hoping for the former but if they lose to Illinois it could be the latter.
I disagree with your Georgia pick, but we’ll see what happens. Georgia seems to be imploding and Richt seems powerless to stop it.
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I can’t say I agree with starting a freshman at QB, though. Sure, Bolden may look better in practice, but I’d rather have a QB who’s an upperclassman and can run even if he has a weak/inaccurate arm. Just limit the playbook to easy passes and screens. Presumably, the upperclassman would have more composure and decision-making abilities.
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He doesn’t just look good in practice. As a passer, he’s the best QB on the team and can literally make every throw he needs to. The guy behind him is a Michael Robinson clone. Yes, he’s a good runner, but he throw lasers at guys wide open or not at all.
TBH, I really think this is a JoePa bias showing through. He’s always preferred his QB’s to be able to actually throw the ball and Bolden easily beats the rest of the competition. While starting a freshman is never a good option, I think JoePa figured the team would rally around the young QB and allow him to start making more plays as the season went along.
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Being able to make every throw possible still isn’t as important as making the right decisions under pressure. Purdue (and NU 2 years ago with Kafka) showed that you can win with a running QB with a limited passing repertoire. Heck, Nebraska won several national championships (and had dominating offenses) with QBs who were great runners and mediocre passers.
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The Huskers gotta jump the Frogs after last night’s beat down.
I like the zooker’s chances getting 8.
I also like the Lions over the Rams this week: Lions 2, Rams 0.
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@jj – Yeah, the ballot was sent in prior to last night. Barring unforeseen circumstances, Nebraska will surely be higher next week.
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Are you looking forward to Martinez/Robinson next year in the big house? I am.
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Totally.
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They’re from the same hs class, too, Martinez redshirted last year and ran the scout team while DR played/started some last year.
Amazing thing about Martinez–he only played QB 2 years before Nebraska, so this is only his third season at any level.
Michigan’s D will be better next year so they’ll be a more complete team. Should be one of next year’s best games.
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So, how many shutouts does TCU need to post to stay in the Top 5? Are we just keeping the spot warm until a BCS team looks halfway impressive?
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I find the PSU-Illinois game to be a tough pick. I would go with PSU. Illinois has a little let down after the OSU game, PSU comes home and finally handles someone easily.
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Greg, I think easy was last year Illini not this year. Even at year’s end the Illini lost but put up a huge fight in 2009. I can’t pick the score but I say the illini win or steal one here.
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Nebraska stadium expansion: from 81,000 up to 85,000-86,000; although they draw another 5,000 above capacity, so look for their numbers to move to 91,000.
http://huskerextra.com/sports/football/article_d929db78-d2ef-11df-b57f-001cc4c002e0.html
Also interesting to note that with the expansion to Michigan Stadium as well as Indiana and Northwestern drawing significantly better crowds, we could see a huge bump to the 71,000 average Big Ten football crowd.
I’d imagine that number shoots up to 75,000-76,000 after next year…
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Also of note, is a new indoor baseball practice facility. Nebraska is going to do all it can to be the Big Ten’s baseball power.
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Mike – All Nebraska needs to do to be THE Big Ten’s baseball power is take the field.
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@Mike – Nebraska is already the Big Ten’s baseball power and it isn’t even in the conference yet.
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For what ever reason, we dont do baseball real well here in Big Ten Country. I am not sure why? It’s not about youth paticipaton. Sounds like a good research project for Duffman. 😉
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We use to, but there’s a reason why the sport is dominated by schools in warm-weather states (and schools in Nebraska, maybe because they hold the CWS there).
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The baseball season starts too early for cold-weather climate schools to have a decent shot on a regular basis. Our teams have to play all their games on the road for the first, what, month of the season?
With that said, I live out in Oregon now and while it’s not quite the climate of the Upper Midwest, they don’t exactly get ideal baseball weather. The Beavers won back-to-back NCAA baseball titles recently and the Ducks just re-started their program and have already made the tournament.
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Sure, but it’s not freezing in early March. Plus, the West Coast gets Indian summers (maybe not as much in the NW as in the Bay Area, where it’s warm in to November), so you can still practice baseball 10-11 months out of the year or so (all but the winter rainy season). Compare with Big Ten country, where outdoor baseball is limited to effectively 6 motnhs out of the year (half of which school isn’t in session).
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Sorry… I’m not buying Nebraska owning the Big 10 in baseball without a fight…
Minnesota—3 CWS titles, Neb—0
Minnesota 5 of last 10 B10 titles Neb — 0
Michigan and tOSU might have something to say too…
While it is true the Big 10 has not made much noise in the CWS of late… cannot say we don’t make an effort… Lot easier to focus (earlier) on baseball in warmer climes…
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It might not be freezing (it’s rarely below freezing anywhere on the West Coast), but high temperatures are in the 50s or lower and it is raining pretty consistently from October through April in Seattle, Eugene and Corvallis. I’m not sure if they get quite as much precipitation in Pullman, but it’s just as cold if not more so. It’s pretty mild down in Stanford and, of course, baseball weather has been rendered irrelevant in Berkeley. Thanks Title IX!
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I’m not saying Illinois doesn’t have a chance, but that Zook quote is the prototypical compulsive gambler quote: “I’m down a month’s rent, so I’m due for some good luck”.
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I hear you but I don’t feel you. The 2010 Illni are NOT a 3rd division team if they are, only by a slew of close loses. the defense is way better and the offense is only slowed by Scheelhauses ability to win a game with his arm. One day he will, he’s just a pup.
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Here’s a little something to get sparty nation fired up! For those that don’t know, MSU used to be MAC, that’s what’s on the smokestack behind the stadium, and they were the “Aggies” before they were the Spartans. The old MAC logo was, I think, pretty sweet.
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They used to be MAC, and now they just play the MAC 2-3 times a year! Sorry, that was too easy, couldn’t resist.
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pride comes before the fall.
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Frank, I appreciate how you aren’t drooling over Auburn. While they’ve done what they’re supposed to, they haven’t looked especially impressive in one game yet.
I’m not sure South Carolina even deserves to be ranked, as their win at Georgia just seems less and less impressive as the weeks go on.
I certainly don’t think LSU should have moved up in ranking after the fiasco at home against hapless Tennessee. I personally think they should be around 20-25 (because they have looked just about the same as Northwestern to me, except that they had unjustified preseason hype).
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Wait until Bama lights up about 50 on SC. They’ll be out.
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or not.
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You’re missing something on UCLA-Cal. Both teams play MUCH, MUCH better @ home (see: Cal blowing out an apparently decent Colorado team). Moreover, Cal gave a very good Arizona team everything they could handle in Tucson. IMO the Nevada loss was fluky, more a function of defensive unpreparedness than anything else.
Cal also didn’t get waxed 35-0 at home, and didn’t lose at a “meh” K St team. UCLA’s big achievement was the Texas win… but maybe Texas just isn’t that good.
Also, Cal has an extra week of prep time, which is a huge help against wacky offenses like UCLA has. Of all the Pac-10 lines this weekend, Cal -7.5 is the only one I particularly like.
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Lines I like this weekend:
Cal -7.5
S Car +7 (I’ve seen 7.5 sometimes, I really like it with the extra 0.5)
Mich -4.5
Minn +22.5
Iowa St +6
Ball St -5.5
NC St -9.5
UVA +10
Toledo +39
NFL – NYJ -4
NFL – STL +3
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So I noticed yesterday on ESPN’s crawler that Michigan is something like 37-21-1 all time against MSU. (Not sure if those are the exact numbers, but it was something similar to that.) I was surprised to see that the teams had only played each other 60 or so times over the years. I would have guessed that the total number of matchups would be approaching 100 by now. Did they not play every year for a while? Or was MSU a relative latecomer to big-time football?
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Michigan State only joined the conference in 1950
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Were they not big-time enough before that to merit an annual OOC game? If so, that surprises me. I guess I’ve thought of MSU as a team/school that’s been around for longer than that.
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MSU was the Boise State of the 1940s.
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not sure what the story was. I know Michigan was resistant to them joining the conference and was arguing for Pitt or Nebraska at the time. So there may have been some instate issues.
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Oh. One of my favorite topics. MSU has the 2nd most victories over UM, behind OSU.
UM fiercely resisted MSU’s entry for years. The 2 are still not overly cooperative. Believe it or not, UM politicians stopped MSU from getting a law school years ago when MSU voted for OSU to go to the Rose Bowl over UM.
Anyhow, Yost was basically a prick. He wouldn’t play ND because they were catholics and he basically considered MSU pondscum in general.
ND and MSU supported each other through the early years. They have what I believe is a generally respectful rivalry, notwithstanding certain flag plantings.
MSU then went on to be one of the first schools to integrate and this is what, in some ways, led them to be a powerhouse in the 50s.
There it is in a nutshell.
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Also, UM and ND have played a surprisingly short number of games. The rivalry here is chielfly about the all-time record and the older crowds tend to harbor resentment on both sides about the old days.
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All time record UM / MSU is more like 67 to 31 or something. I think they have played right around 100 times and UM wins a little more then 2 out of 3.
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Michigan leads 67-30-5
http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/div_ia/bigten/michigan/opponents_records.php?teamid=1988
Looks like they’ve played pretty much every year since 1910, with a break during WW2.
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@ loki
a lot of schools took a break during WWII. a number of schools were selected as military officer training schools and wound up with a lot of elite players from other schools transferred there for officer training. Michigan and Notre Dame were among those schools. A well know example is Elroy “Crazylegs” Hirsch. He is associated mostly with Wisconsin but when he committed to the Marine Corps he had to transfer to Michigan where he played his final two years.
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Big Ten teams were never segregrated and have featured blacks players since over a century ago (in fact, racist behavior towards a black Iowa player over a century ago by Mizzou players and fans is the reason why those 2 border states haven’t played each other in the past hundred years), but MSU was the first school to recruit top black football players from the south (back when the south was segregated).
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@Richard
right. the story behind the Floyd of Rosedale trophy is very instuctive.
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@jj: thanks for all the history — very interesting.
@hank: I got in this same discussion of WWII college football the other day on BON. For fun, check out the AP Top Ten from 1943. (The other war years yield similar results.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1943_college_football_season
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There has always been sometype of social scisim between the two perhaps not to a great degree but from what I have observed. MSU was the Ag school and UM was the intelectual school.
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@ Richard, Didn’t know that about Iowa-Missouri. Intersting. Also, Thee Ohio State was the first University to offer a schorlarship to a black athlete in any sport. His name? Jesse Owens…It was also the first schorlaship offered by any school in a sport other than football or basketball.
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I should spell check. LOLs.
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@JJ
stick to what you know little brother. the Michigan Notre Dame rivalry goes way beyond all time records.
if you’re interested check
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_%E2%80%93_Notre_Dame_football_rivalry
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here’s one for the history buffs, msu invented the winged helmet.
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this time, with the link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winged_football_helmet
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Since I know no one here was watching Baylor-Texas Tech, I think many here will be amused to learn that Big 12 officials, after a replay review, declined to add a second back to the clock at the end of the game, even though doing so could have been justified.
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I would have watched it, but Dish has dumped the Fox sports channels. One more reason to look forward to being in the Big Ten.
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I saw the end of that game.
I agree there was about a second when the player was down, but the clock would only have stopped long enough for the chains to be moved. I don’t think they could have snapped the ball fast enough to run a play.
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With the clock stopping for the review, if they had a second on the clock, Baylor would have been at the line, ready to snap on the restart for at least a Hail Mary. Doubtful that it would have succeeded, but better than nothing.
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Perhaps, but if they had called it that way on the field, they wouldn’t have had a chance. They would have set the ball while the clock was frozen on 1 second, then started again when the chains moved. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a college team not let at least a second run off when the chains moved.
Maybe they could have done it after the review (with the center snapping it on the referee’s whistle), but they would have received an advantage that they wouldn’t have had without a review. I think that would have been unfair.
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I watched just about all of that one, but I had to leave before it was over to make the Rangers game. Those kooky Big 12 officials.
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Its Blow out Saturday here in BT country. OSU, IL and Wis all big winners thus far. I think NU to follow. Boy the weather is Good here in Evanston. Thinking about a last minute trip to Ryan Field.
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@ jj and fellow Spartys
congratulations on the win. well earned. good luck the rest of the season.
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thanks dude. i just hope the wheels don’t fall off this thing.
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Random question that dawned on me this afternoon, probably triggered by the announcers discussing the fact that SC had never defeated a #1 team before today. I figure someone here will know if there’s an answer.
Texas played four different #1 schools (USC 05; OSU 06; OU 08; Bama 09) in a five-season timespan. Has anyone ever heard of a team play so many different #1 teams from different schools in such a short period of time?
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Not exactly the same, but UNL played four national champions in two years in 1990-1991. 1990: Colorado (AP), Georgia Tech (UPI), 1991: Washington (UPI) and Miami (AP). Also played national champion FSU in 1993. UNL lost all those games, but it was a prelude to an awesome run in the mid-90’s.
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Four champions in two seasons is pretty hard to replicate.
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Florida has had a similar schedule the last 5 seasons, but with the same schools-LSU and Alabama. They won it all in 06. LSU ended up #3. Don’t know what they were when they played. They played LSU (champs) in 07, Alabama (#1 at the time) in 08, Alabama in 09 and 10.
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Ohio State played the eventual national champ 3 years in a row. Texas in 05, Florida in 06 and Louisiana State in 07. Thanks for the reminder. LOLs.
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Well last week, after long believing Alabama was over-rated, I finally said I was convinced. Lets, see, who can I curse this week?
Nebraska’s offense looked pretty good this week.
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Damned with faint praise………
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Not enough praise to constitute a curse, IMO.
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How about they have a great defense (which noone doubted) and they have an offense with the speed of those 90s teams?
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Next week against UT will be interesting. UT has seen a QB running offense, and has good team speed, so they should be ready. If UNL wins, the hype will really start (along with the debates about which undefeated teams are most deserving). One week at a time.
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I don’t expect anyone to go undefeated in B12 or SEC. However, halfway through the season, there’s still a pretty decent chance the pattern of the last 10 years holds. One of the 2 teams in the championship game has been OU, UNL or Texas from the Big 12 or Ohio St. when a Big 12 team doesn’t make it. OU, UNL and Ohio St. have as good a chance as anyone of making it this year.
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Tha Mad Hatter strikes again!
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How ’bout my Tigers! Its never boring down on the Bayou.
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or in Evanston….
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Screw it. LSU’s winning it all. Let’s move on to next year. 🙂
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That’s what I thought about CU in 94 when they won similar games against Michigan and UT. UNL ended their hopes.
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Once and you’re charmed. Twice and it will bite you back somewhere along the way.
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I don’t know how you all put up with the stress down there. If I remember correctly, that fake field goal was the same play LSU ran against South Carolina 2 or 3 years ago. Seems that Florida would have been watching for it.
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Especially since even Gary Danielson said when they were lining up that he’d have the Gator players all watch out for the fake and not bother trying to block the kick (at 50+ yards, it was no gimme even with no pressure).
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That’s the beauty of having a crazy coach. He’s predictably unpredictable. By the way, that play was executed to perfection in 07 by Matt Flynn & Colt David for a touchdown against South Carolina.
The Ole Ball Coach’s reaction is classic.
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That’s why I remember it so well, Spurrier’s reaction.
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Frank – I was at the Rangers game today (Yes, I skipped a TCU home football game. Don’t judge me), and parking wasn’t that bad. I got there relatively late and still found a spot just a couple of blocks from the Ballpark. Thank goodness the Rangers play well before the Cowboys tomorrow. Announced crowd for baseball was 51,700(!), so if that holds up we’ll have around 135,000 sports fans in a four square mile area. Should be fun. Anyway, I guess it’s all been a good test for the Super Bowl.
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How will that play out tomorrow if the Rangers game is ending at the very time fans are still arriving for the Cowboys game? I haven’t been to Jerry World so I don’t know what traffic flow is like, but the timing of tomorrow’s two games seems particularly bad.
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Let’s see … 12:07 start for baseball, 3:15 start for football. Most Cowboys fans will be arriving well before kick-off time, so I don’t see it being a big problem, unless the game goes really fast. Could be tough for late-arriving Cowboys fans to find parking, but that’s not my problem, fortunately.
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@Jake – No judgment here. I ate my tickets to the Illinois homecoming game in 2005 so I could stay home to watch game 1 of the World Series with the White Sox. Penn State ran up over 60 points on the Illini (and it would’ve been 80 or 90 if JoePa hadn’t called off the dogs by the end of the 3rd quarter), so I was pretty comfortable with my decision.
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Well, the Big Ten can still have 3 teams next year that finish the regular season this year undefeated. Unfortunately, one of them will not be my Wildcats. However, Nebraska will be favored in every game remaining before the Big12 championship game, tOSU’s only potential slipup left is @Iowa, and MSU has a decent chance in all it’s remaining games as well (they also visit Iowa).
Imagine the outcry if tOSU faces Nebraska in the NC game while BSU and TCU also finish undefeated.
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My dream scenario: OSU, Boise and NU all finish undefeated; their relative ranking remains the same as it is today (i.e. BSU remains above NU); and the strength of schedule for the conference NU is departing isn’t strong enough for NU to jump ahead of BSU via the computers. 🙂
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I think most Husker fans would take that scenario. Huskers still finish undefeated against the B12. I think a bad scenario is to lose a last second CCG again. Then insert B12 champ into your scenario. True nightmare in Lincoln is losing to UT this weekend, the wheels coming off, and losing some more including to Mizzou.
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That’s funny. Your dream scenario has UT losing to UNL, and the conference that UT anchors is too lame to get an undefeated team into the title game instead of a team that’s leaving its lameass WAC.
Maybe we should do the mismatched pairings. If WAC can get an undefeated into the title game under this scenario, then…
BSU>OU
Nevada>UNL
Fresno>UT
Hawaii>Mizzou
Nice dream scenario!
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Back to the real world for the Wildcats.
UK loses 37-34 on a last second FG to Auburn.
UA falls short 29-27 to Oregon St.
NW falls on a TD w/4 minutes left 20-17 to Purdue.
And KSU gets pummeled by Nebraska again.
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Ned: Who are we?
Team: The Wildcats!
Ned: Who are we gonna beat?
Team: The Wildcats!
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I don’t know about the others, but Northwestern seems to specialize in beating itself.
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Don’t forget the 1996-97 national championship game in basketball: Arizona Wildcats over Kentucky Wildcats.
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Wildcats tend to be bb schools-Villanova, UK, Arizona, KSU, Davidson-maybe not NW.
1951 Kentucky Wildcats beat Kansas St. for the title. Although its possible that far back, KSU may have still been Aggies instead of Wildcats.
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Well, at least we can say it will not happen again (At least not as undefeated teams).
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Starting in 2011, you mean?
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You’re right, unless the Big10 adds Rutgers & ACC schools (or school), where Rutgers and an added ACC school manage to go undefeated.
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Rutgers… undefeated… HahaHa… maybe in debate…
The Gopher’s are not playing well (read:currently stink), but at least have some REAL history…
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I know Texas is down and the Huskers have been salivating at the chance to get them back for that game last year…. But they’re proud, they don’t have much else left to play for and they’ve had a bye week to prepare. They just might catch Nebraska this week.
I think the best teams in the nation are pretty clearly Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon. I also am fairly certain that none of those three will end the regular season unblemished. In the national championship game, we’re likely going to see a team from the sub-par Big XII (either Nebraska or a massively overrated Oklahoma team) and quite possibly Boise, Utah or TCU.
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Suppose Boise State, Texas Christian and Utah are the only three teams left unbeaten at the end of the regular season. Does Utah get the nod over one (or both) of the other two because it is now deemed BCS worthy due to its upcoming entrance into the Pac?
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TCU & Utah can’t both be unbeaten; they play each other.
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This year, I don’t think Utah would be able to pass an unbeaten Boise (at least in the human polls) unless the Utes blow the doors off TCU and Air Force and the Broncos look subpar a couple times. This year the pollsters are determined to give BSU a chance if it wins out and there aren’t two undefeated teams from a power conference. In fact, they might even get the nod over a Michigan State or even Nebraska/Oklahoma.
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Here’s the AP Poll broken down by Conference.
(6) SEC – #7 Auburn, #8 Alabama, #9 LSU, #10 South Carolina, #12 Arkansas, #22 Florida.
(4) Big Ten – #1 Ohio State, #13 Michigan State, #15 Iowa, #18 Wisconsin.
(4) Pac-10 – #2 Oregon, #14 Stanford, #17 Arizona, #24 Oregon State.
(4) Big XII – #5 Nebraska, #6 Oklahoma, #20 Oklahoma State, #21 Missouri.
(3) MWC – #4 TCU, #11 Utah, #23 Air Force.
(2) WAC – #3 Boise State, #19 Nevada.
(1) ACC – #16 Florida State.
(1) Big East – #25 West Virginia.
Looking ahead to next week there are only two games against ranked teams.
#1 Ohio State at #18 Wisconsin.
#12 Arkansas at #7 Auburn.
#9 LSU is playing its first non-conference game against an unranked non-AQ team this week, FCS McNeese State (2-3) which means it should be a 3-OT thriller. LSU plays at Auburn the following week, and I’ll be there.
Other games of note include:
#5 Nebraska v. Texas (3-2);
#8 Alabama v. Ole Miss (3-2);
#10 South Carolina at Kentucky (3-3);
#13 Michigan State v. Illinois (3-2);
#15 Iowa at Michigan (5-1);
#19 Nevada at Hawaii (4-2);
#20 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (3-2);
#21 Missouri at Texas A&M (3-2);
#22 Florida v. Mississippi State (4-2);
#23 Air Force at San Diego State (3-2); and
#25 West Virginia v. South Florida (3-2).
At the half-way point of the season, there are only 13 undefeated teams left.
The Big XII has 4 undefeated teams: #5 Nebraska, #6 Oklahoma, #20 Oklahoma State, and #21 Missouri.
The Big Ten, SEC, MWC, and WAC all have 2 undefeated teams each.
Big Ten: #1 Ohio State and #13 Michigan State.
SEC: #7 Auburn and #9 LSU.
MWC: #4 TCU and #11 Utah.
WAC: #3 Boise State and #19 Nevada.
The Pac-10 has one undefeated team in #2 Oregon.
LSU plays at Auburn on October 23.
TCU plays at Utah on November 6.
Boise State plays at Nevada on November 26.
Ohio State doesn’t play Michigan State.
Each of the Big XII 4 unbeatens play 2 of the other 3 in the regular season.
Potentially 7 teams can be undefeated at the end of the regular season.
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Nice breakdown. ACC and Big East with one ranked team each. Ouch. Although the ACC has some that could become ranked: NCSU, VT, Miami.
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That list makes me very angry solely because of Auburn.
They are this years Iowa…winning games by luck basically and will lose one at some point (unless the luck holds)…and yet folks are talking them up like the second coming.
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Don’t worry PSUGuy. The Hogs will rough Auburn up this week. Then, after LSU survives McNeese St., the real Tigers will take care of the Plainsmen/War Eagles/Tigers.
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A PSU fan complaining about Iowa winning by luck. That tune never gets old.
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You should recognize it well. It sounds very similar to Iowa fans complaining about Northwestern winning by luck 😛
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Hey, I at least man up and say Iowa kick’s our ass. At best, we have a player fail to execute and it goes 100% the worst way for us at a crucial moment in time (Clark’s INT).
I’m just talking about the “needing 17 fumbles returned for TD’s to win by 2” syndrome that seems to happen to one team every year.
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While we’re discussing rankings, here are Sagarin’s conference ratings:
PAC-10 82.66
SOUTHEASTERN 77.46
BIG 12 76.80
BIG TEN 75.80
ATLANTIC COAST 71.60
WESTERN ATHLETIC 70.56
MOUNTAIN WEST 70.47
BIG EAST 69.35
CONFERENCE USA 64.43
MID-AMERICAN 62.32
SUN BELT 54.70
Qualitatively:
Pac-10
gap
SEC
Big 12
Big Ten
gap
ACC
WAC
MWC
Big East
gap
CUSA
MAC
comical sized gap
Sun Belt
The most surprising part has to be the performance of the WAC. It makes me wonder that had the MWC stayed intact and added the top of the WAC (BSU, Nevada, Fresno) if they could have forced the auto bid issue.
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The WAC suffers from the same problem as the MWC: the top is good (as good as any power conference); the bottom is dreck.
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Link to Sagarin’s ratings by team:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm
Sagarin always has some bizarre results. Part of the problem with computer rankings this early (and this is his 1st week w/o preseason polls added in) is the lack of data points. Interesting that for a change his ELO-Chess (used for BCS-doesn’t consider margin of victory per BCS mandate-based on the rating system for chess) makes more sense than his predictor model (though not for Ohio St.) which he considers the better model. A few examples below:
Team-ELO Chess model-predictor
Ohio St. 23-8
OU 3-26
Alabama 17-2
Cal 16-6
FSU 19-4
Stanford 7-3
AZ 11-10
ASU 29-13
Of course ELO Chess also has Delaware at 18 and James Madison at 25.
This is part of what selects the BCS teams. And Sagarin, while it tends to have outliers (really negative for B12 teams for some reason), it is not nearly as bad as 2 or 3 of the others. The theory is that if you use 6 polls, the outliers get washed out. Of course, if you take 6 bad polls, you could argue “garbage in, garbage out.”
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add
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Boise projected as #1 in the BCS:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5673225
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